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Global Economics Daily II 14 July 2010

Edited by: Dean Maki +1 212 526 1731 Nicholas Tenev +1 212 526 5452

ƒ We have revised our Q2 US GDP forecast down to 3.0%


ƒ Rebound in core US retail sales, but softer Q2
ƒ US import prices drop 1.3% in June
ƒ The next 24 hours: Today: FOMC minutes; Tomorrow: Empire State mfg, US PPI, US industrial production,
Philadelphia Fed mfg, ECB monthly bulletin

Recent data and events


We have revised our Q2 US GDP forecast down to 3.0%
Incorporating today’s weaker-than-expected news on business inventories and retail sales, we have cut our Q2 GDP forecast
to 3.0%, below our previous tracking estimate of 3.5% and our official 4.5% forecast; the trade report earlier in the week
had lowered our tracking estimate to 3.5%. Business inventories rose 0.1% in May, below our (0.3%) and the consensus
(0.2%) forecast, and this suggests that inventory accumulation is unlikely to make as big a positive contribution to Q2 GDP
as we previously projected. Meanwhile, as discussed below, although core retail sales rose 0.2% in June, downward revisions
to April and May point to private consumption growth of about 2.5% in Q2 as a whole, compared to our previous forecast
of 3.5%. Finally, May’s trade data suggest the trade deficit widened further in Q2, implying more of a drag on GDP growth
than we had previously expected. Elsewhere, we expect government spending and business investment to contribute
positively to Q2 GDP growth, with particular strength in equipment and software spending. We have not revised our GDP
forecast for future quarters; while recent data have been softer than expected, we do not see this as the beginning of a
persistent slowdown in growth. In our view, the underlying trend in business investment and consumer spending remains
solid, and we expect this to show through over the next several months.
Dean Maki
Rebound in core US retail sales, but softer Q2
Core retail sales continue to grow Retail sales declined 0.5% in June, below our and the
consensus forecast (both -0.3%). However, this was
y/y % chg dragged lower by sharp declines in autos, gasoline and
10
building materials. Core retail sales (which exclude these
three components and feed into our GDP tracking
5
estimate) rose 0.2%, above our 0.1% forecast. That said,
0 this upside surprise was tempered by downward
revisions to May and April, the former to -0.2% from
-5 Retail sales 0.1% and the latter to -0.4% from -0.2%. This is likely to
Core retail sales translate into small downward revisions to personal
-10 consumption growth and thus leave Q2 consumption
growth tracking close to 2.5%.
-15
07 07 08 08 09 09 10 Among non-core items in June, gasoline fell 2.0%, autos
2.3% and building materials 1.0%. Within the core, gains
Source: Census Bureau, Haver Analytics
in electronics (1.3%), clothing (0.6%) and health care

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(0.5%) offset declines in furniture (-1.1%) and food (-0.5%). All in all, although retail sales have disappointed in Q2 as a
whole, the rebound in core retail sales in June is an encouraging sign for prospects for Q3, during which consumer spending
should continue to be supported by solid wage and employment growth.
Peter Newland
US import prices drop 1.3% in June
After a sharp cyclical rebound, import prices are easing Import prices fell 1.3% in June after a revised 0.5%
decrease in May, a steeper drop than we (-0.2%) or the
% y/y Import prices consensus (-0.4%) had expected. While much of the
25
decline was due to a 4.4% decline in petroleum prices,
20
15
nonpetroleum import prices declined 0.5%, much softer
10 than the 0.1% increase we had forecast. Import prices
5 declined in all major categories, with foods and
0 beverages dropping 1.7%, capital goods slipping 0.3%,
-5 industrial supples ex-petroleum falling 1.3%, autos and
-10 parts edging 0.2% lower, and consumer goods import
Total
-15 prices decreasing 0.4%.
-20 Nonpetroleum
-25 It is possible that the June drop in nonpetroleum import
00 02 04 06 08 10 prices is reflecting the effects of the increase in the value
of the dollar over the past few months. While import
Source: BLS, Haver Analytics
prices were quite soft in May and June, it is worth noting
that this comes on the heels of several quarters of rapid import price inflation. Today's report brings the y/y headline rate
down to 4.5% from 8.7%, and the y/y ex-petroleum rate to 3.1% from 3.7% – both still near the upper end of the range
over the past decade.
Nicholas Tenev

The next 24 hours


European data/events: Tomorrow: ECB monthly bulletin
The ECB monthly bulletin will be published at 4:00am/08:00 GMT tomorrow.
US data/events: Today: FOMC minutes; Tomorrow: Empire State mfg, PPI, industrial production, Philadelphia Fed mfg
FOMC minutes (2:00pm/18:00 GMT today): We look for the June FOMC minutes to show greater concern about the state of
the economic recovery, as reflected in the cautious tone of the statement regarding softness in the housing sector and less
supportive financial market conditions. We expect them to reflect the view that inflation will remain subdued for some time
due to stable longer-term inflation expectations and substantial resource slack. They may also provide context regarding
the degree to which Committee members see declines in energy and commodity prices as pushing trend inflation lower. We
expect the minutes to remain largely silent on the early testing of the Term Deposit Facility, as the Fed continues to state
that the auctions are a "matter of prudent planning and have no implications for the near-term conduct of monetary
policy." We would not be surprised to see some discussion of potential policy alternatives should the economic outlook
worsen, though we would view any such discussion as part of normal contingency planning, rather than signaling an
expectation that these measures would actually be used. Finally, the minutes should also provide updated FOMC forecasts;
we expect the FOMC to modestly lower its growth forecasts for 2010.
Empire State mfg index (8:30am/12:30 GMT tomorrow): We and the consensus expect the Empire State manufacturing
index to slip to 18.0 in July from 19.57 in June, consistent with continuing strong growth in the New York-area
manufacturing sector. The new orders and delivery time indices, both forward-looking indicators, improved in June.

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However, national manufacturing growth seems to be moving sideways, so we look for the Empire index to follow suit in
July.
PPI (8:30am/12:30 GMT tomorrow): We expect a 0.1% decline in the PPI in June and a 0.1% increase in the core PPI, in line
with consensus forecasts. Within non-core components, declines in gasoline will likely push the headline index lower,
although a rebound in food prices (following a decline in May) is likely to provide a partial offset. Within the core, there
have been fairly broad-based price gains in recent months. We expect this trend to continue in June, although there may be
some negative payback in the tobacco component, following a strong gain in May.
Industrial production (9:15am/13:15 GMT tomorrow): We expect a 0.2% decline in industrial production in June (cf.
consensus: -0.2%). Recent data suggest that the recovery in the manufacturing sector lost some momentum at the end of
Q2. For example, in June, the production component of the ISM fell to 61.4 from 66.6 and manufacturing hours worked
declined. As a result, we expect manufacturing output to fall 0.3%. However, this would still be consistent with robust
growth in Q2 as a whole. The annual revision to industrial production data, published since the May release, left Q1 growth
lower than initially reported but that in Q4 higher, although the broad picture remains the same.
Philadelphia Fed mfg index (10:00am/14:00 GMT tomorrow): After dropping 13.4 points to 8.0 in June, we expect the
Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index to increase to 12.0 in July (cf. cosnensus: 10.0). The forward-looking new orders
index actually improved in June, signaling a likely acceleration in demand. Furthermore, the June decline in the national ISM
index was much milder than that in the Philadelphia index.
Barclays Capital economics teams

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Calendar
Wednesday 14 July Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus
- Thailand: Interest rate announcement, % - 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.50 1.50 A
- France: Bank holiday
18:00 US: Minutes of June FOMC meeting released
0:00 Singapore: Advance GDP estimate, % y/y Q2 0.9 3.5 13.1 14.5 19.3 A
6:00 Finland: HICP, % m/m (y/y) Jun 0.6 (1.5) 0.3 (1.6) -0.2 (1.4) 0.3 (1.3) 0.2 (1.3) A
8:00 Austria: HICP, % y/y Jun 1.0 (1.8) 0.2 (1.8) -0.1 (1.7) 0.4 (2.3) 0.0 (1.8) A
8:00 Italy: Final CPI, % m/m (y/y) Jun 0.0 (1.6) 0.0 (1.4) 0.0 (1.3) P 0.0 (1.3) 0.0 (1.3) A
8:00 Italy: Final HICP, % m/m (y/y) Jun 0.9 (1.6) 0.1 (1.6) 0.0 (1.4) P 0.0 (1.4) 0.1 (1.5) A
8:30 UK: Claimant count, change k Jun -32.7 32.0 -30.9 -26.0 -20.8 A
8:30 UK: ILO unemployment rate, % May 8.0 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.8 A
8:30 UK: Average weekly earnings, % 3m y/y May 2.5 4.3 4.1 R 3.1 2.7 A
8:30 UK: Core average weekly earnings, % 3m y/y May 1.7 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.8 A
9:00 E16: HICP, % m/m (y/y) Jun 0.5 (1.5) 0.1 (1.6) (1.4) "flash" 0.0 (1.4) 0.0 (1.4) A
9:00 E16: HICP ex tobacco, index (2005 = 100) Jun 109.09 109.58 109.71 109.68 R 109.70 A
9:00 E16: 'Eurostat' core (HICP x fd, alc, tob, ene), % m/m (y/y) Jun 0.8 (1.0) 0.3 (0.8) 0.1 (0.8) 0.0 (0.9) 0.0 (0.9) A
9:00 E16: 'ECB' core (HICP x unproc.fd, ene), % m/m (y/y) Jun 0.7 (0.9) 0.2 (0.7) 0.1 (0.8) 0.0 (0.8) 0.1 (0.9) A
9:00 E16: Industrial production, % m/m (y/y wda) May 0.8 (4.1) 1.5 (7.8) 0.9 R 1.4 (9.3) 0.9 (9.4) A
12:30 US: Retail sales, % m/m Jun 2.1 0.3 R -1.1 R -0.3 -0.5 A
12:30 US: Retail sales ex autos, % m/m Jun 1.2 0.3 R -1.2 R 0.0 -0.1 A
12:30 US: Core retail sales, % m/m Jun 0.6 -0.4 R -0.2 R 0.1 0.2 A
12:30 US: Import prices, % m/m (y/y) Jun 0.4 (11.2) 1.1 (11.2) -0.5 (8.7) R -0.2 (5.5) -1.3 (4.5) A
12:30 US: Nonpetroleum import prices, % m/m (y/y) Jun -0.1 (2.8) 0.5 (3.5) 0.5 (3.7) -0.1 (3.1) -0.5 (3.1) A
14:00 US: Business inventories, % m/m May 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.1 A
19:00 Argentina: CPI, % m/m Jun 1.1 0.8 0.7 -0.2 0.7
09:00 Germany: 5y OBL Auction 74.0 €5bn
09:00 Italy: 5y, 13y and 30y BTP Auctions €7bn
09:30 Portugal: 2y & 9y PGB taps €1bn
09:30 UK: 2046 Gilt Auction £2.25bn
17:00 US: 30y Note Auction $13bn

Thursday 15 July Period Prev 2 Prev 1 Latest Forecast Consensus


8:00 E16: ECB monthly bulletin published Jul
12:30 US: Fed Governor Duke (FOMC voter) gives opening remarks at an Atlanta Fed hearing on the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act
14:00 US: Senate Banking Committee holds confirmation hearing for nominations of Yellen, Raskin, and Diamond to the Fed Board of Governors
16:00 Turkey: Interest rate announcement, % Jul 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 -
22:00 Chile: Interest rate announcement, % Jul 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.5 1.5
23:15 US: Richmond Fed President Lacker (FOMC non-voter) speaks on the economic outlook to business leaders
- Peru: GDP, % y/y May 5.9 8.8 9.3 8.8 9.4
- Greece: Unemployment rate, % Apr 11.3 12.1 11.6 - 11.9
1:00 Australia: Inflation expectations, % y/y Jul 4.1 3.6 3.4 - -
2:00 China: Real GDP, % y/y Q2 9.1 10.7 11.9 10.4 10.4
2:00 China: CPI, % y/y Jun 2.4 2.8 3.1 3.4 3.3
2:00 China: PPI, % y/y Jun 5.9 6.8 7.1 6.8 6.8
2:00 China: Industrial production, % y/y Jun 18.1 17.8 16.5 14.5 15.5
2:00 China: YTD, FAI, % y/y Jun 26.4 26.1 25.9 25.1 25.3
2:00 China: Retail sales, % y/y Jun 18 18.5 18.7 18.9 18.8
6:00 E16: New car registrations, % y/y (nsa) Jun 10.8 -7.4 -9.3 - -
8:30 UK: BoE housing equity withdrawal, £ bn Q1 -6.1 -5.1 -4.0 - -
12:30 US: Initial jobless claims, thous (4wma) 10-Jul 459 (463) 475 (467) 454 (466) 435 (456) 445 (458)
12:30 US: Empire State manufacturing index Jul 31.86 19.11 19.57 18.0 18.00
12:30 US: Producer price index, % m/m (y/y) Jun 0.7 (6.0) -0.1 (5.5) -0.3 (5.3) -0.1 (3.1) -0.1 (3.1)
12:30 US: Core producer price index, % m/m (y/y) Jun 0.1 (0.9) 0.2 (1.0) 0.2 (1.3) 0.1 (1.1) 0.1 (1.1)
13:15 US: Industrial production, % m/m Jun 0.3 0.6 1.3 -0.2 -0.1
13:15 US: Capacity utilization, % Jun 72.7 73.1 74.1 74.0 74.1
14:00 US: Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index Jul 20.2 21.4 8.0 12.0 10.0
15:30 Israel: CPI, % y/y Jun 3.2 3.0 3.0 2.6 2.4
08:30 Spain: 15y SPGB tap €2.5bn
09:00 France: BTAN taps €8.5bn
09:30 UK: 2022 UK Linker Auction £1.1bn
10:00 France: Linker taps €1.5bn

Sources: Reuters, Market News, Bloomberg, Barclays Capital

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Global Economics Research


Global
Piero Ghezzi Nick Verdi
Head of Economic and Emerging International Economist
Markets Research +44 (0)20 7773 2173
+44 (0)20 3134 2190 nick.verdi@barcap.com
piero.ghezzi@barcap.com

The Americas
Dean Maki Michael Gavin Guillermo Mondino Marcelo Salomon
Head of US Economics Research Head of Emerging Markets Strategy Head of Latin American Research Chief Brazil Economist
+1 212 526 1731 +1 646 412 5915 +1 212 412 7961 +55 (0)11 5509 3295
dean.maki@barcap.com michael.gavin@barcap.com guillermo.mondino@barcap.com marcelo.salomon@barcap.com
Theresa Chen Michael Gapen Alejandro Grisanti Peter Newland
US Economist US Economist Senior Economist – Ecuador, Peru, US Economist
+1 212 526 7195 +1 212 526 8536 Venezuela, Central America and the +1 212 526 3153
theresa.chen@barcap.com michael.gapen@barcap.com Caribbean peter.newland@barcap.com
+1 212 412 5982
alejandro.grisanti@barcap.com
Nicholas Tenev Sebastian Vargas Jimena Zuniga
US Economist Economist – Argentina Economist – Chile, Colombia, Mexico
+1 212 526 5452 +54 (0)11 4850 1230 +1 212 412 5361
nicholas.tenev@barcap.com sebastian.vargas@barcap.com jimena.zuniga@barcap.com

Europe
Julian Callow Matthew Vogel Varun Bhabha Laurence Boone
Chief European Economist Head of Emerging EMEA Research UK Economist Chief French Economist
+44 (0)20 7773 1369 +44 (0)20 7773 2833 +44 (0)20 313 42155 +33 1 44 58 3236
julian.callow@barcap.com matthew.vogel@barcap.com varun.bhabha@barcap.com laurence.boone@barcap.com
Leef H Dierks Fabio Fois Jeff Gable Simon Hayes
German Economist European Economist Head of ABSA Capital Research Chief UK Economist
+49 69 7161 1781 +44 (0) 20 3134 1136 +27 11 895 5368 +44 (0)20 7773 4637
leef.dierks@barcap.com fabio.fois@barcap.com jeff.gable@absacapital.com simon.hayes@barcap.com
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Chief Economist – Emerging Europe European Economist Senior Economist – Middle East Chief German Economist
+44 (0)20 7773 2031 +44 (0)20 313 42300 & North Africa +49 69 7161 1757
christian.keller@barcap.com kerri.maddock@barcap.com +44 (0)20 313 41120 thorsten.polleit@barcap.com
alia.moubayed@barcap.com

Asia
Peter Redward Wensheng Peng Kyohei Morita Rahul Bajoria
Head of Emerging Asia Research Head of China Research Chief Japan Economist Regional Economist – India, Malaysia,
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rahul.bajoria@barcap.com
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Japan Research Regional Economist – China, FX Strategy – Australia, Senior Regional Economist – Korea,
+81 3 4530 1542 Hong Kong New Zealand Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan
james.barber@barcap.com +852 2903 2654 +65 6308 3406 +65 6308 3292
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Japan Economist Regional Economist – Indonesia,
+81 3 4530 1064 Philippines, Vietnam
yuichiro.nagai@barcap.com +65 6308 3201
prakriti.sofat@barcap.com
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