Analysis On His First Visit to the Middle East, Trumps Envoy Jason Greenblatt

Surprises Everyone
Greenblatt leaped effortlessly from a Palestinian refugee camp to meeting
settler leaders, making positive impressions on all, along with a clear message:
Trump's serious about peace, and Israel ought to be too.

Barak Ravid Mar 19, 2017 3:41 PM

Jason Greenblatt (L), U.S. President Donald Trump's Middle East envoy meets
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the Prime Minister?s Office in
Jerusalem March 13, 2017. HANDOUT/REUTERS
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Jason Greenblatts Twitter account was the best show in town this week. Anyone
following his tweets might have thought he wasnt the U.S. envoy for the peace
process, but the Energizer bunny.
Greenblatt didnt rest for a moment during his four days here. He bounced from
Jerusalem, to Ramallah, to Jericho, to Bethlehem, to Amman and back to
Jerusalem. After every meeting, he tweeted pictures and updates.
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On the eve of his visit, the New York Times published an article describing him
scornfully as a man with no diplomatic experience who landed his job almost by
chance. But Greenblatt proved this week that even if he lacks the experience of
veterans of the peace industry in America, he is blessed with sharp instincts,
seriousness, common sense and a great deal of personal charm and emotional
intelligence. Everyone on the Israeli side who met with Greenblatt this week, on
both the right and the left, as well as everyone on the Palestinian side, had a
positive impression.
Greenblatt is a serious, honest envoy, tweeted MK Tzipi Livni (Zionist Union)
after meeting him. Theres no doubt President Trump is committed to peace,
and thats good news. It wont be easy but theres hope.
On his first visit to the region as Trumps envoy, Greenblatt came mainly to
listen and learn. Alongside his meetings with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, he held a great many
meetings with segments of the population that until now most U.S. envoys had
passed over.

He surprised many on the Palestinian side by meeting with residents of the

Jalazun refugee camp near Ramallah, and surprised others on the Israeli side by
meeting with two mayors of settlements, Oded Revivi and Yossi Dagan. He met
with Palestinian and Israeli students, with residents of the Gaza Strip, with
senior Jewish, Christian and Muslim clerics.
Wednesday night, Greenblatt took a tour of Jerusalems Old City. One stop on
the tour was Yeshivat HaKotel, from which he tweeted a picture of the Western
Wall and the Temple Mount. Five minutes later, he visited the house of a
Palestinian resident of Jerusalem and tweeted a picture of the same holy sites
from a different angle.
Peace and coexistence are not just possible in this extraordinary city, they
exist already and have for centuries, he added in a follow-up tweet.
The message Greenblatt reiterated against and again, to both Israelis and
Palestinians, was that President Donald Trump is very serious when he talks
about his desire to make the ultimate deal and that Israeli-Palestinian peace is
very high on his priority list. Opposition leader Isaac Herzog (Zionist Union) said
after meeting with Greenblatt that he got the impression Trump was very
committed to this issue and plans to launch a serious diplomatic process. A
senior minister in the ruling Likud party got the same impression.
Trump has made it his goal to achieve an Israeli-Palestinian miracle, the
minister said. In another six months, hes capable of putting a deal on the table
and forcing the parties to make decisions.
Anyone who followed the statements put out by the White House after Trumps
telephone call with Abbas last Friday and his meeting with Saudi Arabias deputy
crown prince on Wednesday got the impression that the new U.S. president is no
less determined to make progress than his predecessor, Barack Obama, and
Obamas secretary of state, John Kerry. If former Defense Minister Moshe
Yaalon were still in the cabinet, he might declare that Trump, too, was messianic
and obsessive.
Missing Obama
For the settler lobby in the media, the Knesset and the cabinet, the events of
the past week shouldnt just be a warning bell, but a full-scale shrieking alarm.
Many people on the Israeli right anointed Trump as the Messiah after his
electoral victory. Senior cabinet ministers were already fantasizing about an end
to the two-state solution, a green light for unlimited building in the settlements,
the U.S. embassys relocation from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and even annexation of
the West Bank. Not only has none of this happened, but the trend appears to be
moving in the exact opposite direction.
A senior minister who sits in the diplomatic-security cabinet said he met with
Netanyahu this week and found him very worried. The reason wasnt the spat
within the government about a new public broadcasting corporation, but Donald
Trump.
The U.S. president has asked Netanyahu to give him a proposal that would
include significant restrictions on settlement construction, the minister said.
The prime minister wants with all his heart to avoid a fight with either Trump or
settler leaders, the minister continued, and hes breaking his head over how to
square the circle.
Theres enormous pressure on him over the settlements from Trump, the
minister said. Trump told Netanyahu, Tell me what your needs are on the
settlements, and what youre willing to do to rein in construction. Netanyahu is
in a corner that he doesnt know how to get out of.
Thats also why he isnt going to the AIPAC conference in Washington at the
end of the month, the minister added. He doesnt yet have anything to bring to
Trump. The feeling I got is that hes starting to miss Obama.
The Zambish test
Many critical analyses have been written in both Israel and America about how
Obama made a huge mistake by focusing on settlement construction when he
began his attempts to restart the peace process. But now, Trump is in the Oval
Office and, to everyones surprise, he too is beginning his efforts to renew
Israeli-Palestinian negotiations by talking with Netanyahu about reining in such
construction.
Admittedly, Trump isnt demanding a complete freeze like Obama did. But
Greenblatts message in his talks with Netanyahu was that the president wants
to find a formula that will allow only a minimum of construction and will mesh
with his desire to promote an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal.
A senior Israeli official briefed on the content of those talks said Greenblatt
made it clear that Israel must show its willing to take steps to rein in
settlement construction, and on other issues as well, in order to demonstrate a
sincere desire to advance the peace process.
In total, Greenblatt spent eight hours with Netanyahu this week, and the issue
of the settlements took up a major portion of that time. By the end of their
meeting on Thursday, they still hadnt managed to reach an agreement on reining
in construction. Next week, the talks are expected to continue in Washington,
between Greenblatt and Israeli Ambassador to the U.S. Ron Dermer.
A joint statement issued by Netanyahu and Greenblatt on Thursday said that
they made progress on the issue of Israeli settlement construction, following
up on President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu's agreement in Washington
last month to work out an approach that reflects both leaders' views. Those
discussions are continuing between the White House and the Prime Minister's
Office.
Netanyahu is keeping the content of his talks with Greenblatt secret from most
of the ministers in the diplomatic-security cabinet. Topping the list of those
kept out of the loop are the heads of the Habayit Hayehudi party, Naftali
Bennett and Ayelet Shaked, who are the ones most likely to exert immediate
political pressure against any restraints on settlement construction. But one
person who was invited to hold preparatory talks with Netanyahu was Zeev
Hever, who heads the construction arm of the Yesha Council of settlements.
One Likud minister said that for Netanyahu, whats important is the Zambish
test, a reference to Hevers nickname. Any formula for reining in settlement
construction that Zambish can live with will also be acceptable to settlement
leaders and allow ministers from both Likud and Habayit Hayehudi to follow
suit.
Its too bad Greenblatt wasted time negotiating with Netanyahu instead of
speaking directly with Zambish, one Likud minister said sarcastically.
Netanyahus problem is that theres no guarantee that the maximum Zambish can
give on reining in settlement construction will be anywhere near the minimum the
Trump Administration is prepared to accept. The prime ministers opening bid to
the Americans was to limit construction to the settlements existing areas of
jurisdiction, but it was always clear the Americans wouldnt accept that, and
would insist on more.
The question many ministers in Likud and Habayit Hayehudi are asking
themselves now is how far Netanyahu will have to go on restraining settlement
construction in order to reach an agreement with Trump. Given the current
composition of the governing coalition, its hard to see how Netanyahu can go
very far without sparking a political crisis.

Barak Ravid
Haaretz Correspondent

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