Colgate-Palmolive Mint and Menthol Climate Risk Assessment

MIT Sloan Sustainability Lab Project, Spring 2016

Climate Change Could Impact Colgate-Palmolives Mint & Menthol Supply Chain
Our Approach Literature Review: Climate and Agriculture
Literature Expert Benchmarking Recommendation
(Wheat, Soy, Corn, Rice)
Review Interviews Research Development Climate change is likely to have significant, multi-
AgMIP and CMIP CP Procurement Cocoa Mapping of Key
faceted impacts on agricultural production
data Professionals Potato Risks around the world
WRI Aqueduct Mint Industry Experts Barley Development of
International WRI Researchers Recommendations An intercomparison of seven crop models
Center for Tropical
Agriculture (CIAT)
Sustainable Food Lab
Experts
to Address Risks indicate strong negative effects of climate
change on yields for the four major crops,
especially at greater levels of global warming
Mint Cultivation: Current State and low latitudes
A multimodel assessment of global hydrological
models indicates that climate change is likely to
exacerbate regional and global water scarcity
considerably
Another multimodel analysis of water supply and
demand projections suggests that climate
impacts to these crops will result in crop yield
losses of 8-24% of the present day totals

Risks Include Changes in Water Availability, Crop Competition, Seasonal

Variability, Viable Growing Regions, and Temperature
Key
Major mint & menthol
Potential Risks from Climate Change could impact
growing regions the availability, quality, and cost of mint and menthol.
Current Water Stress: India Predicted Change in Water Stress These risks have varying levels of uncertainty.
by 2030
KEY
Bold: Risk factor likely
impacted directly by climate
change
Red Box: Risk factor with AVAILABILITY
significant uncertainty in
terms of impact on mint and
menthol Number of
Farmers

Crop Farmer
Competition Capability

Seasonal Disease
Variability
Current Water Stress: US Predicted Change in Water Stress Soil Fertility
Temperature
by 2030 Regulation

COST Water
Availability
QUALITY
Labor Costs

Viable
Other Capital Growing
Expenditures Regions

Companies are Responding to Climate Risk with Various Management Strategies

Benchmarking: Climate & Crop Management Strategies Recommendations for Colgate-Palmolive
Research impact on mint of commodity
crop stress due to climate change
Research
Research on climate change impacts
specific to mint cultivation

Invest in research and development of

COCOA
Farmers-centric approach:
1. Certification- RA & UTZ
certified suppliers
2. Research- increase
plants quality and
performance
3. Technology Transfer-
share knowledge between
farmers in growing area
COCOA
- Farmers training
program- training and
assistance on more
efficient, sustainable
farming methods
- Collaboration between
several research institutes
to increase cocoas quality
and quantity
Technology climate resilient varieties of mint and
substitutes for natural mint
POTATO BARLEY
Explore opportunities for precompetitive
- Collaboration with - Farmer engagement
industry partners and through Web-enabled Partnerships collaboration with the Mint Industry
tools for agricultural
peer companies on Research Council and peer companies
environmental standards supplier
- Pilot programs focused
- Farmer engagement on on water and resources Incorporate climate change data,
carbon emissions and
water use reduction
management Risk Mitigation projections, and considerations into
- Data science and broader risk mitigation strategies
research

Sources Consider supporting or investing in farmer

Conversations with Colgate-Palmolive staff; Company websites (Colgate-Palmolive, MARS, Nestle, PepsiCo, AB InBev)
Rosenzweig, Cynthia, et al. Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison. PNAS. 6/413. Farmer engagement regarding resource
Elliott, Joshua, et al. Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change. PNAS 2014 111 (9)
Engagement management and agricultural