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E S CENTRE FOR PUBLIC POLICY FCPP POLICY SERIES NO. 57 • MARCH 2009
BY ROHIT GUPTA
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WHY AMERICA (AND CANADA) DOESN’T NEED ANOTHER NEW DEAL
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The Frontier Centre for Public Policy is an independent, non-profit organization that
undertakes research and education in support of economic growth and social outcomes
that will enhance the quality of life in our communities. Through a variety of publications
and public forums, the Centre explores policy innovations required to make the eastern
prairies region a winner in the open economy. It also provides new insights into solving
important issues facing our cities, towns and provinces. These include improving the
performance of public expenditures in important areas like local government, education,
health and social policy. The author of this study has worked independently and the
opinions expressed are therefore his own, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of
the board of the Frontier Centre for Public Policy.
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary 4
November 15, 2008 5
Introduction 1929-1939 6
The original cause of the Great Depression 7
NRA and AAA 8
New Deal policies that were unhelpful 9
One final note on the New Deal 10
Simply The Facts: The Great Depression/Today 11
A final thought regarding the situation in Canada 12
Sources and Further Reading 13
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Executive Summary
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“Those of you who have followed my career know that I’m a free
market person — until you’re told that if you don’t take decisive
measures then it’s conceivable that our country could go into a
depression greater than the Great Depression’s.
So my administration has taken significant measures
to deal with a credit crisis.”
– U.S. President George W. Bush, November 15, 20082
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1929/39
European Union, $250-billion; and
China, $580-billion.
Recently, some G-20 leaders gave even
more unequivocal statements supporting
further government spending:
The Associated Press reported in December
2008 that President Nicolas Sarkozy, the same degree as during the Great
“planned to spend his way out of recession…”5 Depression.
Additionally, just a few days before Barack The depression comparisons seem to
Obama took over the United States be complete with a renewed desire for
presidency, he said, “At this particular a modern-day version of former U.S.
moment, only government can provide the president Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s
short-term boost necessary to lift us from (FDR’s) New Deal.
a recession this deep and severe… On this point, if we examine the comments
Only government can break the vicious made by today’s leaders and the state-
cycles that are crippling our economy.”6 ments made by FDR in support of the New
All this panic and hyperbole are reminiscent Deal, we can see that today’s leaders are
of the days in and around the Great fashioning themselves as contemporary
Depression of 1929-1939. In fact, most New Dealers. For example:
senior politicians and policy makers, - In one of Roosevelt’s fireside chats in
including the Chairman of the U.S. Federal 1938, he said it was up to the government
Reserve Board, Ben Bernanke, have to “create an economic upturn” by making
made frequent comparisons between the “additions to the purchasing power of
current economic downturn and the Great the nation,” effectively saying that the
Depression. However, the data show there government would spend where the
is a significant difference between the private sector would not.7
economic situation today and that of the - France’s President Sarkozy has on many
Great Depression. (See the Simply the occasions referred to “France [needing to]
Facts table on page 11.) Further, given the spend its way out of recession.”8
social support measures and automatic
counter-cyclical “stabilizers” built into - President Obama states, “Only govern-
government spending today (e.g., welfare, ment can provide the short-term boost
unemployment benefits, public pensions necessary to lift us from a recession.” 9
and numerous other social assistance Based on these comments and others
measures), it is virtually impossible that an made by European leaders, it seems that
economy could shrink and human suffering FDR’s philosophy of “priming the pump”
and dislocation could be experienced to and of governments stepping in to fill the
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void when the business cycle ebbs has This was preceded by a period of massive
again become mainstream economic policy. uncontrolled growth in the money supply
This has led to much reverent discourse that gave rise to a number of structural
regarding the results of FDR’s policies and weaknesses in the U.S. economy. This
the New Deal. In the midst of this more situation was significantly exacerbated by
than slightly rose-coloured recollection of the implementation of the Smoot-Hawley
history, a refresher course on some of the Tariff Act of 1930, which raised tariffs
programs of the New Deal and their actual on a wide range of U.S. agricultural and
effects is in order. industrial goods. Smoot-Hawley created
an international trade war that greatly
diminished imports and exports for the
It is important to note that it is generally United States as well as for many other
nations and pushed many countries
accepted by many prominent economists into depression.10 This all occurred prior
to Franklin D. Roosevelt assuming the
such as Irving Fisher and the Federal presidency.
To set the stage, it is worthwhile to review
Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke, that the the unemployment11 situation FDR presided
over when he took power as well as the
original cause of the situation afterwards.
was a debt default- - The unemployment rate was 24.9 per cent
for the whole of 1933, the year in which
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NRA
National
Recovery
Administration
AAA
The overall impact of the New Deal
programs on the health of the economy
during the Depression may be a debatable
one, but it will not be debated here.
Agricultural
What will be examined Adjustment Administration
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just one interest, and now if I am wrong Franklin Roosevelt may have been a
somebody else can have my job. I want heroic wartime president, standing
to see this country prosper. I want to see shoulder to shoulder with British Prime
people get a job. I want to see people get Minister Winston Churchill resolutely
enough to eat. We have never made good against Nazism, fascism and communist
on our promises. I say after eight years totalitarianism. However, on the domestic
of this administration, we have just as economic front, he was far from a hero.
much unemployment as when we started. Most critical for today’s policy makers and
And enormous debt to boot.19 the public — the fact is the New Deal did
not rescue the United States from the
Great Depression.
As a final note on the New Given the current economic situation,
Deal, it is feasible that the where does this leave policy makers?
Governments around the world have
aforementioned programs made the decision to significantly increase
government spending (virtually all deficit
(as well as others) may financed) in the hopes of stimulating
demand. That does not mean, however,
have deepened the that the specific policies and programs of
Depression. the New Deal should also be emulated.
Is the UnitedStates
undergoing an unprecedented
economic crisis?
Let us look at the numbers:
The
The Great
Great
Depression
Depression Today
Today
Peak
Peak Unemployment
Unemployment 24.9%
24.9% 7.6%
7.6%
Rate
Rate 22
(1933)
(1933) (Jan.
(Jan. 2009)
2009)
%
% Decline
Decline in
in Real
Real GDP
GDP -9.8%
-9.8% -3.8%
-3.8%
(fi
(first
rst year
year of
of contraction)
contraction)23 (1929-30)
(1929-30) (2008)*
(2008)*
Peak
Peak No.
No. of
of 10.4
10.4 million
million 11.6
11.6 million
million
Unemployed
Unemployed Persons
Persons25 (1938)
(1938) (Jan.
(Jan. 2009)
2009)
U.S.
U.S. Population
Population26 129.8
129.8 million
million 304.1
304.1 million
million
(1938)
(1938) (July
(July 2008
2008 est.)
est.)
Number
Number of of Employed
Employed 43.1
43.1 million
million 142.1
142.1 million
million
(civilian)
(civilian) 27
(1938)
(1938) (Jan.
(Jan. 2009)
2009)
Infl
Inflation
ation Rate
Rate –
– CPI
CPI -5.1%
-5.1% 1.8%
1.8%29
(annual
(annual percentage
percentage change)
change)28 (1929-1933)
(1929-1933) (Dec.
(Dec. 2008)
2008)
%
% Decline
Decline in
in Dow
Dow Jones
Jones -86.5%
-86.5% -45.8%
-45.8%
Industrial
Industrial Average
Average (Aug.
(Aug. 1929
1929 (Oct.
(Oct. 2008
2008
from
from Peak to
Peak to Trough
Trough30 – Feb. 1933)
– Feb. 1933) –
– Feb. 2009)
Feb. 2009)
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A final thought
regarding the
situation in
Canada
and the recent budget:
$100,000,000,000,000,000
It is important to note that irrespective of
how much the Canadian government spends
or what programs it implements, the state of
our economy will be determined largely by
the health of the U.S. economy.
The effects of U.S. actions will swamp any
taken by the government in Canada.
Thus, Canadians should hope President
Obama is able to restore America’s
confidence and faith in its economy to
get the United States out of its morass
before it bankrupts itself.
The best thing Canada can do while it waits
is keep its fiscal house in the best shape
possible, including minimal deficits, and
simply hang on
G
for the unfortunate
but inevitable
R
rough ride.
ohit
upta
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SOURCES
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SOURCES Cont’d
19. Reed, Lawrence W. “Great Myths of the Great Depression,” Mackinac Center for Public Policy,
http://www.mackinac.org/archives/1998/sp1998-01.pdf
20. Sullivan, Meg. “FDR’s policies prolonged Depression by 7 years, UCLA economists calculate,”
UCLA Newsroom, August 10, 2004.
http://newsroom.ucla.edu/portal/ucla/FDR-s-Policies-Prolonged-Depression-5409.aspx
21. Ibid.
22. Bureau of Labor Statistics. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
23. U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm
24. First quarterly contraction in real GDP for this recession was 2008 Q3 at -0.5%;
2008 Q2 real GDP growth of 2.8%.
25. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
26. U.S. Census Bureau. http://www.census.gov/popest/archives/1990s/popclockest.txt and http://
www.census.gov/popest/states/tables/NST-EST2008-01.xls
27. National Bureau of Economic Research. http://www.nber.org/; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics,
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
28. 1999 Economic Report of the President.
http://www.gpoaccess.gov/usbudget//fy00/pdf/erp.pdf p.400; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
29. CPI less Food and Energy – policy metric targeted by U.S. Federal Reserve.
Total CPI figure was 0.1%.
30. Yahoo Finance. http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=%5EDJI
Further Reading:
Canada: The New Switzerland?
http://www.fcpp.org/main/publication_detail.php?PubID=2625
How Affordable is Housing? Frontier’s 5th International Housing Survey
http://www.fcpp.org/main/publication_detail.php?PubID=2573
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