Reyes, Jose Luis Alfonso

S.
BSBA-BM MG2A
Portfolio
Dr. John Irish Lira
Probability And Statistics
Chapter 5 Probability and Counting Rules
5.1 This chapter will provide counting techniques w/out directly enumerating
the number of possible outcomes of a particular experiment of a particular
set. This may be called combinatorial analysis.
5.2 Counting Rules
Fundamental Counting Rules
Sum Rule Suppose that an event can be performed by either of two
different procedures, with m possible outcomes for the first procedure and n
for the second one.
m+n
Product rule In a sequence of n events in which the first has n1
possibilities and the second event has n2 possibilities and so forth. The total
number of possibilities would be
n1(n2)(n3)..(nk)
Permutations is an arrangement of all or part of a number of things in a
definite order.The number of permutations by the number of n objects taken
r at a time is given by
P(n,r) = nPr = n!/(n-r)! , - 0 < r < n.
Permutations with Repeated Elements It often happens that objects
are virtually identical get arranged. Our Inability to distinguish between
these items reduces the number of possible permutations by the number of
ways these identical items themselves can be arranged.
Pn = n!/n1(n2)(n3). Where n1 + n2 + n3 . = n
Circular Permutations When things are arranged in places along a closed
curve or a circle in which any place may be regarded as the first or last
place, they form a circular permutation.
Pc = (n 1)!

5.3 Sample Spaces and Probability

Talks about basic concepts of probability, types and rules. Probability
experiments and finding the outcome.
Sample Space
An outcome is a result of a single trial of a probability experiment , while a
sample space is a set of all possible outcomes of probability experiment.

Simple and Compound Events

An event is a collection of one or more outcomes of an experiment, it may
be a simple event or a compound event. A simple event is an event that
includes one and only one of the outcomes for an experiment and is denoted
by E , also called as elementary event. On the other hand, a compound
event is a collection of more than one outcome for an experiment ; it is also
called a composite event.
Probability is a numerical measure of the likelihood that a specific event
will occur. We denote P(E) is the probability that an event E will occur. An
event that cannot occur and has 0 probability will be called Impossible
Event and if an event that is certain occur has a probability of 1 which is
called sure event.
a. The probability of an event is within the range 0 to 1. 0 < P(E) < 1.
b. The sum of the probabilities of all simple events for an experiment is
always 1. For an Experiment P (Ei) = P(E1) + P(E2) + P(E3) + . =1
c. If an event cannot occur, its probability is 0.
d. If an event is certain, then the probability is 1.

Three Conceptual Approaches to Probability

a. Classical Probability - Classical probability assumes that all

outcomes in the sample space are equally likely to occur. P(E) =
Number of outcomes in E/ Total number of outcomes in the
sample space = n(E)/n(S)
b. Empirical or Relative Frequency Probability Empirical Probability
is the type of probability that uses frequency distribution based on
observations to determine numerical probabilities of events. P(E) =
frequency of the class/total frequencies of the distribution= f/n
c. Subjective Probability Subjective Probability is the probability
assigned to an event based on subjective judgement, experience,
information, and belief.

5.4 The additional rules and Multiplication Rules for Probability

A. Independent, Dependent , Mutually Exclusive events

P(A I B) = P(A) or P(B I A) or P(B) Independent Events

P(A I B) P(A) or P(B I A) P(B) Dependent Events

Mutually Exclusive events if they cannot occur at the same time.

B. Addition Rules for Probability

Rule 1: When two events A and B are mutually exclusive, the probability
that A or B will occur

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B)

P(S)= 1
P(A) P(B)

Rule 2: If A and B are not mutually Exclusive , then

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A and B)
P(S) = 1

P(A) P(B)

P(A and
B)

C. Multiplication Rules for Probability

This rule can be applied to determine the probability of two or more events
that occur in sequence. The probability of the intersection of two events is
called their joint probability. It is written as P(A and B). These rules are
for independent or dependent events.
Rule 1: When two events are independent , the probability of both occurring
is
P(A and B) = P(A) * P(B)
Rule 2: When two events are dependent , the probability of both occurring is
P(A and B) = P(A) * P(A I B)
Rule 3: When two events are mutually exclusive their joint probability is
always zero. If A and B are two mutually exclusive events, then
P(A and B) = 0

5.5 Marginal and Conditional Probabilities

A. Marginal Probability is probability of a single event without using
consideration of any other event; it is also called Single Probability. It can
be computed using the formula
P(A) = P(A and B1) + P(A and B2) +.+ P(A and Bk)
Where B1 and B2 . Bk ,are k mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive
events.
B. Conditional Probability is the probability that an event will occur
given that another event has already occurred. If A and B are two events,
then the conditional probability is given as P(A I B) and reads as the
probability of A given that B has already occurred. In symbol,
P(A I B) = P(B and A)/ P(B) and P(B|A)/P(A) given that P(B) 0.

5.6 Random Variables and Discrete Probability Distribution

Random Variable is a function or rule that assigns a number to each
outcome of an experiment, it is called chance variable. A Discrete
random variable assumes values that can be counted , while discrete
random variable that can assume all values between any two specific
values; a variable obtained by measuring or are contained one or more
intervals.
A discrete probability distribution consists of the value a random
variable can assume and the corresponding probabilities of the values.

1. 0 P(x) 1, for all xi (the probability outcome is between 0

and 1).
2. P(xi) =1 ( The sum of all possible outcomes is 1.0).
3. The listing is exhaustive ( all possible outcome are included).
4. The outcomes are mutually exclusive(the outcomes cannot
occur at the same time).

5.7 Mean , Variance , Standard Deviation, and Mathematical

Expectation
a. The mean of a Probability Distribution

The mean of a random variable with a discrete probability distribution is

= x1 * P(x1) + x2* P(x2) + ..... xn * P(Xn) = [x * P(x)]

b. Variance and Standard Deviation of a Probability Distribution

The variance of a random variable with a discrete probability distribution is

2
= [x2 *P(x)] - 2

The standard deviation of a random variable with a discrete probability distribution

is