N=12 ( Todos los

datos)

MESES
Xi Yi Yi (Yi-Yi)
1 20 18.2 1.8 (YiY i )2
3.24
2 21 18.2 2.8 7.84
3 15 18.2 -3.2 10.24
4 14 18.2 -4.2 17.64
5 13 18.2 -5.2 27.04
6 16 18.2 -2.2 4.84
7 17 18.2 -1.2 1.44
8 18 18.2 -0.2 0.04
9 20 18.2 1.8 3.24
10 20 18.2 1.8 3.24
11 21 18.2 2.8 7.84
12 23 18.2 4.8 23.04
218 109.68

Y =Y i=
Yi = 218 =18.16 18.2 Y 13=18.2 3.15

n 23

Error=S=
( YiY i ) =
n1 109.68
121
=3.15
MESES
 Xi Yi Yi (Yi-Yi) DAM
2
1 20 ---- ---- ---- i)
(YiY ----
2 21 ---- ---- ----- ----
3 15 ---- ----- ---- ----
4 14 18.67 -4.6667 21.77778 4.6/1 = 4.6
4.6+3.6/2 =
5 13 16.67 -3.6667 13.44444
4.1
6 16 14 2 4 10.2/3 = 3.4
12.9/4 =
7 17 14.33 2.66667 7.111111
3.22
15.6/5 =
8 18 15.33 2.66667 7.111111
3.12
9 20 17 3 9 18.6/6 = 3.1
10 20 18.33 1.66667 2.777778 20.3/7 = 2.9
11 21 19.33 1.66667 2.777778 22/8 = 2.75
24.7/9 =
12 23 20.33 2.66667 7.111111
2.74
218 74.77

20+21+15
Y = =18.6
3 (YiY i) =2.74
DAM =
n
21+15+14
Y = =16.6

Y =
3

15+14+ 13
=14.0
Error=S=
( YiY i ) =
n1 74.77
91
=3.05

3 Y 13=21.3 3.05

14+13+ 16
Y = =14.3
3

13+16+17
Y = =15.3
3

.
20+21+23
Y = =21.3
3
 MESES
Xi Yi Yi (Yi-Yi)
1 20 ---- ---- ---- i )2
(YiY
2 21 ---- ---- ----
3 15 ----- ---- ----
4 14 17.83 -3.83 14.6689
5 13 15.5 -2.5 6.25
6 16 13.66 2.34 5.4756
7 17 14.66 2.34 5.4756
8 18 16 2 4
9 20 17.33 2.67 7.1289
10 20 18.83 1.17 1.3689
11 21 19.66 1.34 1.7956
12 23 20.5 2.5 6.25
218 21.83 52.4135

1 ( 20 )+2(21)+3(15) PRONOSTICO
Yi 4= =17.83
6

Yi5 =
1 ( 21 )+ 2(15)+ 3(14)
6
=15.50
Error=S=
( YiY i ) =
n1 52.41
91
=2.55

Y 13=21.83 2.55

1 ( 15 ) +2(14)+3(13)
Yi6 = =13.66
6

1 ( 14 ) +2(13)+3(16)
Yi7 = =14.66
6

1 ( 13 ) +2 (16 ) +3 ( 17 )
Yi8 = =16.0
6

1 ( 16 ) +2(17)+3(18)
Yi9 = =17.33
6
 1 (17 ) +2(18)+ 3(20)
Yi10= =18.83
6

1 ( 18 ) +2(20)+3(20)
Yi11 = =19.66
6

1 ( 20 )+ 2(20)+3 (21)
Yi12= =20.5
6

SUAVIZAMIENTO EXPOENCIAL SIMPLE

MESES
Xi Yi (Yi-Yi)
Y i=Yi1+ ( 1 ) Y i1 (YiY i)2
1 20 ----
2 21 20.00 1.00 1.00

3 15 20.20 -5.20 27.04

4 14 19.16 -5.16 26.63

5 13 18.13 -5.13 26.30

6 16 17.10 -1.10 1.22

7 17 16.88 0.12 0.01

8 18 16.91 1.09 1.20

9 20 17.12 2.88 8.27

10 20 17.70 2.30 5.29

11 21 18.16 2.84 8.07

12 23 18.73 4.27 18.25

218 123.38 123.38

Yi13=0.2 ( 23 ) +(10.2)(18.72)=19.57

Error=S=
( YiY i ) =
n1 123.38
91
=3.34 3.35

Y 13=19.57 Z /2=3.35