DESCENT INTO CHAOS

When its Kashmir, look beyond the obvious. The swirling street protests began
not as popular perception would have it because of a stone-pelters death
this June 11. They were conceived in Srinagar Central Jail as far back as 2008
M Saleem Pandit | TNN

The three-month strife in Kashmir has its seeds not in the accidental death of 17-year-old
Tufail Mattoo hit by a teargas canister during stone-pelting at Rajouri Kadal on June 11. The
incident, in itself, has been the visual that appeared to have launched a thousand protests. But
behind the spiralling violence thats killed 91 people is a script thats still moving to plan.
In fact, its a script penned at a meeting between two radical Muslim leaders, Masarat Alam
Bhat of the Muslim League and Qasim Faktoo of Jamait-ul-Mujahideen, in Srinagar Central Jail
in 2008.
This meeting took place in a distinct Kashmiri political context. In search of an elusive
acceptability within Kashmirs radical political space, mainstream state politicians, even if they
did not encourage the separatists, allowed their movements to grow uninhibited. They did not
heed intelligence reports that radical Islamist icons like Syed Ali Shah Geelani, Asiya Andrabi
and Masarat Alam were growing and propagating Talibanism in the state by striving to bring the
entire population on their side in the name of religion.
Masarat, arrested in 2008 for triggering, along with Geelani, the Amarnath land row, and
Qasim Faktoo, alias Ashiq Hussain Faktoo, serving life imprisonment for killing human rights
activist H N Wanchoo, together conspired to consolidate the scattered cadres of the various
militant groups using mobile phones. Their agents outside the jail distributed propaganda
material like CDs and audio tapes of jihadi songs smuggled from Pakistan to mosques across the
Valley, to tap into the frustrations of young Kashmiri boys, educated but largely unemployed,
and without direction.
Meticulous in their planning, Musarat and Qasim placed their trusted men in sensitive places
across the Valley to execute their brief of reviving the azadi sentiment among people: From
unlettered housewives in rural pockets to tech-savvy youth through social networking sites.
Right after the J&K high court released Musarat in June after
quashing the Public Safety Act pressed against him he and his aides intensified the process he
had launched with Qasim from the jail. His first act was announcing Quit Kashmir movement
with a weeklong protest calendar on June 24. Although Alam is now underground, he pops up to
give sermons in mosques and paints his secessionist ideology in Islamic colour by proclaiming
azadi means Islam.
So how did the Kashmiri political class fall for this trap? Between 2002-05, when PDPs Mufti
Mohammed Sayeed was the chief minister, while trying to keep his tenure spotless on the law
and order front and, literally, purchasing peace, he provided financial support to hardliners. His
soft approach perhaps the Mufti thought he could coopt them with sops saw his
government sponsoring Geelanis treatment for cancer in Mumbai. While such stratagems helped
Mufti marginalize his arch-enemy Farooq Abdullah, these also eventually resulted in separatists
getting a free run across the Valley.
In 2005, Congresss Ghulam Nabi Azad became the CM under the rotational arrangement with
PDP, and the militants agenda was put on the backburner. Azad also questioned the separatists
in public meetings. However, the Congress-PDP alliance lost the 2008 elections, which brought
Omar to the fore.
The new chief minister, who had the option of choosing between the Mufti and Azad line,
settled for the formers that treated militancy with kid gloves. He allowed the separatists to
grow as long as they did not harm his political interests.
Giving them space to call for frequent strikes and protests across Kashmir, Omar, too, ended
up raising his voice for a political solution to the Kashmir issue.
While insisting on withdrawal of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act, Omar embarrassed
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi by announcing in a speech
in Anantnag last year that Kashmir was a political problem. He was trying to pitch the
National Conferences greater autonomy proposal against Muftis self-rule formula
both tinged with separatism.
This encouraged the separatists to stridently demand azadi. Also, both Mufti and Omar
demoralised the police by sermonizing top officers on the need for restraint, giving radicals the
much-needed political breathing space.
In the last three months, J&K police have been targets of both the rowdies on the streets and
the establishment led by Omar.
Last week, Omar allowed Hurriyats Mirwaiz Umar Farooq to divert the Eid congregation at
Eidgah in old city to downtown Lal Chowk to raise anti-India and pro-azadi slogans which
culminated in arson and plunder. The authorities even withdrew the police and CRPF men to
allow free passage to the 5,000-strong mob that turned violent on Eid. NCs law minister Ali
Mohammed Sagar slammed the police and CRPF for taking on the street rowdies.
A senior police officer, who doesnt want to be named, said Omars ministers are insisting on
releasing the arrested stone-pelters. A senior cop in Budgam was told by a minister to set free a
trouble-making Geelani man in Peerbagh, Srinagar. Another senior policeman said a minister
directed him to call off the hunt for a stone-pelter in Nowhatta, Srinagar. The stone-pelter later
threatened to harm me for daring to search for him, the officer said.
A 3-IN-1 STATE? 1 Kashmir Valley: Dominated by ethnic Kashmiris, who have largely
driven the Azadi campaign. Non-Kashmiri Muslim ethnic groups (Paharis, Sheenas, Gujjars and
Bakarwalas), who dominate areas along the Line of Control, have remained indifferent to the
separatist campaign 2 Jammu province: The region has 70:30 Hindu-Muslim ratio. Parts of the
region were militancy-hit, but violence there has ebbed along with the Valley after India and
Pakistan started a peace process in 2004. Dogras (67%) are the single largest group in the multi-
ethnic region of Punjabis, Paharis, Bakerwals and Gujjars. Statehood demand in Hindu-
dominated districts 3 Ladakh: The largest region in the state with over two lakh people. Its two
districts are Leh (77% Buddhist) and Kargil (80% Muslim population). Union territory status has
been the key demand of Leh Buddhists for many years
PELTERS PARADISE
June 11 | A 17-year-old student, caught in a protest against an alleged staged encounter in north
Kashmir, killed after a teargas shell hits him in Srinagar
June 12 | Police fires at angry protesters who return to the streets to demonstrate against the
teenagers death, starting a cycle of violence
June 14 | Separatists call the first of several general strikes
July 8 | Home minister P Chidambaram calls on parents to keep their children indoors as teenage
boys play a major role in pelting stones at security forces
July 28 | The state govt orders a judicial probe into the clashes as the toll reaches 17
Aug 2 | CM Omar Abdullah flies to New Delhi for talks with PM Manmohan Singh; admits
Kashmir is caught in a cycle of violence
Aug 3 | Pakistan asks New Delhi to exercise restraint
Aug 10 | The PM appeals for dialogue and reconciliation and says new employment
opportunities must be found for young Kashmiris, as the death toll crosses 50
Aug 31 | Police shooting of an 11-year-old boy at a rally in the southern town of Anantnag
triggers further furious protests
Sept 11 | Demonstrations erupt on Eid eve
Sept 13 | 17 civilians are killed by police at protests fuelled by the desecration of the Quran in
the US
Sept 15 | The PM holds all-party meeting in New Delhi to seek a solution to the summer of
violence, as the toll rises to 91
Graphic text : Sameer Arshad and Josy Joseph


FAULTLINES OVER THE DECADES

Oct 27, 1947 |
Tribal raiders, backed by Pakistan army, attack Kashmir; Maharaja Hari Singh signs
the Instrument of Accession with India Dec 31, 1948 | The two sides call for a
ceasefire
Apr 21, 1948 | India takes the issue to the UN Security Council, which passed
Resolution 47 imposing an immediate ceasefire and says New Delhi should retain a
minimum military presence and that the final solution will be made through a
plebiscite conducted under UN auspices. India and Pakistan agree to hold the
plebiscite
Aug 1953 |
Kashmiri leader Sheikh Abdullah arrested; Kashmir erupts and observes a 20-day
strike. Many say the Sheikhs arrest marked the beginning of separatism
1963 | Pakistan cedes 20% of Kashmir including Aksai Chin, which it occupied
following the Sino-Indian War and the Trans-Karakoram Tract to China
1965 | Second Indo-Pak war begins following Islamabads Operation Gibraltar,
designed to infiltrate forces into J&K. The five-week war ends in a UN mandated
ceasefire and the subsequent Tashkent Declaration
1971 | Another war results in Pakistan militarys surrender in East Pakistan
(Bangladesh). The two countries agree to settle all issues including J&K in the
framework of the UN Charter and the subsequent Shimla Agreement
1975 | After decades of incarceration, Sheikh abandons his self-determination
platform and inks the Delhi Accord with Indira Gandhi, seeking a place of honour
and dignity in terms of safeguards provided under Article 370 1987 | Rigged
elections trigger insurgency
1999 | Terrorists and Pakistani soldiers infiltrate into J&K during the winter season
and occupy vacant mountain peaks of the Kargil range, resulting in a high-scale
conflict
Apr 2003 | PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee, often described as the architect of the peace
process, visits Srinagar and calling for better relations with Pakistan and a peaceful
approach to Kashmir conflict
Jan 2004 |
The renewed thaw consolidates when Vajpayee and Pakistani ruler Pervez Musharraf
meet in Islamabad and announce a slew of measures. Later in January, a Hurriyat
delegation meets Vajpayee and deputy prime minister L K Advani, in the first such
face-to-face encounter between the separatists and the highest officials
Feb 2004 | The first round of talks held in Islamabad between India and Pakistan
foreign secretaries and an eight-item agenda, including Kashmir, agreed on for
substantive talks. Further meetings held in the second half of 2004
Dec 2008 | Extraordinary balloting in state elections sees a record 68% turnout,
fuelling hope of a return to normalcy


GOOD, BAD & UGLY: PEOPLE WHO MAKE OR MAR

THE VALLEY
ESTABLISHMENT

Sonia Gandhi
Her sympathies and sensibilities have always been right on Kashmir, but has failed to get the
UPA to deliver

Manmohan Singh
Started with an impressive call for out-of-the box thinking on Kashmir, but now grappling to
come to terms with one of the worst crises in the Valleys history
Was surrounded by hawks in his first term, but has to overcome deep political divisions in
New Delhi before any meaningful initiative

P Chidambaram
Has failed to grasp the situation and swung between blaming LeT and now insisting on AFSPA
dilution
General V K Singh
Has almost
one-third of his
troops in J&K.
Opposes AFSPA revocation or part withdrawal

A K Antony
Has been putting up a strong defence of the army. A sobering political presence in the CCS

Pranab Mukherjee
Provides historical
perspective and
balance to the CCS, where the divisions are clear

Saifuddin Soz
A name often discussed as a possible Congress CM, but never makes the cut due to his lack of
popularity among colleagues

Ghulam Nabi Azad

A man who is happy being in
New Delhi, but still keeps a finger in the Kashmir pie. Managed to at least retain the status quo
when he was CM
Omar Abdullah The third generation Abdullah won hearts with an impassionate speech in
Parliament, but has failed to deliver as chief minister
His family weekends in New Delhi and absence during crucial moments havent really helped

Devender Rana
Omars trusted lieutenant, the Dogra businessman from Jammu is often held responsible for the
CMs disconnect with masses

N N Vohra
A veteran of Kashmir affairs and long-time special interlocutor, Vohra has been surprisingly
silent on the present crisis
Seen by many as the perfect liberal who could deal with all sections of Kashmir society
Vohra may actually be New Delhis best bet in case it wants governors rule to stem the rot

Farooq Abdullah
Many in New Delhi see the wily Abdullah as a possible replacement for his son, but this may
actually be of not much use given his unpopularity in the Valley

HAWKS
L K Advani
Opposed to Article 370, concessions and dilution of AFSPA

Syed Ali Shah Geelani

The grand old man of dissent was almost confined to the margins when Pervez Musharraf
didnt warm up to him and the Centre pursued peace process seriously. But three summers of
mishandling have brought him back centrestage
New Delhis failure to further lend credibility to those who tried to engage with the Centre,
has only added to Geelanis strength over time

Masarat Alam
The 38-year-old former militant stepped in for Geelani, issuing protest calendars when the
latter was behind bars
Went into hiding when the government started rounding up leaders of Geelanis faction. Has
rarely been seen since or heard since, but has spread his message of protest through YouTube
and social networking sites

Asiya Andrabi
Heads the allwomen separatist organization, Dukhtaran-IMillat A radical opposed to dialogue

M Qasim Faktoo
Andrabis husband who has been in jail since the 1990s
Met Masarat in jail in 2008, where they planned the protests and the Quit Kashmir movement

MODERATES
Mirwaiz Umar Farooq
A moderate, he was undisputed leader of the separatist movement till Geelani upstaged him
His engagement with New Delhi is regarded by some as the reason for his marginalization
Still retains popularity as the head of Srinagars Jamia Masjid

The Muftis
Former CM Mufti Mohammed and his daughter Mehbooba are playing their cards well
The PDP seems to be the only mainstream party that hasnt really lost out
To his credit, Muftis tenure as CM saw improved law and order