PROBABILITY

Number of ways it can happen

Probability of an event happening =
Total number of outcomes

There are 5 marbles: 4 are blue and 1 is red. What is the probability that a blue
marble will be picked?

P(Blue) = 4/5

Mutually Exclusive Events

When two events cannot happen at the same time, they are mutually exclusive.

What is the probability of getting an ace or a king from a deck of 52 cards?

4/52 + 4/52 = 8/52 or 2/13

When choosing a ball at random from a bag containing 3 blue balls, 2 green balls,
and 5 red balls, find the probability of getting a blue or red ball.

Compound Probability

Events are independent when the outcome of one event does not influence the
outcome of a second event. When the outcome of one event affects the outcome of
a second event, the events are dependent.

With replacement/independent events:

1. A bag contains 4 blue marbles and 6 green marbles. Two marbles are drawn
from the bag, one at a time, with replacement. Find the probability that:
a. both marbles are blue. (2/5)(2/5) = 4/25or 0.16
b. both marbles are green.
c. marbles are different colors.
d. marbles are the same color. (4/10)(4/10) + (6/10)(6/10) = 16/100 + 36/100 =
52/100 = 13/25

2. Tharon was tossing coins. He tossed a head. What is the probability of tossing
a second head?

Without Replacement/dependent events:

 1. Aiden pulls an ace from a deck of regular playing cards. He does not replace
the card. What is the probability of pulling out a second ace?

1st event or 1st draw: P(ace) = 4/52 = 1/13

2nd event or 2nd draw (3 aces in 51 cards left): P(ace) = 3/51 = 1/17

More Examples:

1. You throw a die twice. What is the probability of throwing a six and then a second
six? Are these independent or dependent events?
2. You have a bag of candy filled with pieces of the same size and shape. Four are
gumballs and six are sweet and sours. You draw a gumball out, decide you don't
like it, put it back, then select another piece of candy. What is the probability of
selecting another gumball? Are these independent or dependent events?
3. Joey has a box of blocks with eight alphabet blocks and four plain red blocks. He
gave an alphabet block to his sister. What is the probability his next selection will
be another alphabet block? Are these independent or dependent events?
4. In your pocket you have three nickels and two dimes.
a. What is the probability of selecting a nickel?
b. What is the probability of selecting a dime?
c. If you select a nickel and place it on a table, what is the probability the
next coin selected is a dime? Are these independent or dependent events?

5. How do you tell the difference between dependent and independent events?

Answer key:

1. 1/36, independent events

2. 4/10 or 2/5, independent events
3. 7/11, dependent events
4. a. 3/5, b. 2/5, c. , dependent events
5. For dependent events, the second probability changes because there is no
replacement.

Conditional probability is the probability that a second event occurred knowing

that a first event occurred. The probability that event A occurred knowing that event
B occurred is written P(A|B) and is verbalized "the probability of A, given B.

1. Two dice are thrown. What is the probability of getting 10 points? Since all
possibilities are equally likely we could just make a list of ways to make 10
points: (4, 6), (5, 5) and (6, 4).
P of getting (4,6) = (1/6)(1/6) = 1/36
P of getting (5,5) = (1/6)(1/6) = 1/36
P of getting (6,4) = (1/6)(1/6) = 1/36
1/36 + 1/36 + 1/36 = 3/36 = 1/12