The Thirteenth Night

Robert lay down in bed, a little sorrowful at the thought that the number devil,
Teplotaxl, had left him. He was, of course, incredibly radiant at the fact that he had
passed Mr. Bockels test, and was indebted to the Number Devil because of all the
things he was taught. As Robert started drifting off to sleep, he remembered something
Teplotaxl had said before; something along the lines of the number devil telling him you
can control your own dreams. Robert fell into slumber, thinking hard on his memory.
Robert was suddenly swimming in an ocean full of sharks. There was no land in
sight. The sharks were a far distance behind him, but he couldnt swim fast enough to
escape them. He kicked his legs and flailed his arms, but to no avail. One shark swam
just close enough and swallowed him whole between his jaws. Robert smelled the
inside of the shark: rotten fish guts, salty seawater. He looked around in awe, and
realized that he was now tiny, plopped firmly on the tongue of the shark. He decided to
travel deeper inside of the shark. Every so often, the tongue would flip up slightly and
throw Robert off balance.
He reached the end of the tongue and slid down the sharks esophagus, down
into its belly. But this was anything but a sharks belly: it was a bright purple room with a
red light on the ceiling. Odd, thought Robert. Is this a purple room, or a blue room being
shone on by the red light? Suddenly, the light turned off, and the purple room (Roberts
question was answered then) was illuminated by one small green light: that of a pocket
calculator. Robert picked up the calculator. He pressed the off button, and the
calculator flew out of his hands and onto the ground. It suddenly transformed into a
trapdoor hatch, and from it climbed out a small red figure. Teplo! Robert called. The
number devil stood on the floor of the room and immediately turned blue (appearing as
purple due to the fact that he was red) in the face.
Never call me that! Teplotaxl shouted. Nicknames arent acceptable!
Seems like nothings changed, Robert thought to himself. Guess I should calm him
down.
Okay, okay. Im sorry. What are you doing here anyways? Robert inquired.
The number devil pulled out his walking stick and made a scene of drawing a large table
with several lines through it. In the top spaces he wrote words, and turned to Robert. He
gestured at the table.
Take a look, Teplotaxl said, its a bit that I left out and thought you should
know.

Robert stared at the table for a long amount of time, then turned to Teplotaxl.
What is this? Why are you showing this to me? He demanded. The number
devil then took
his stick and
wrote in
numbers
on the table.

Robert stared at the table some more. Okay, so its a table saying how many pretzels
someone ate, and if they got sick or not. Teplotaxl looked upon Robert.
Fascinating, isnt it? Its probability, my good friend. He chuckled. Robert was
visibly confused. The number devil began writing an equation in the air with his walking
stick.
 P(3 pretzels Sick)=?

He looked at Robert and said Solve it. Robert stood in place and stared at it, then
began shaking his head. Teplotaxl shook his head as well and said, Of course you
cant. You havent begun to understand what probability is, Let me start you off, okay?
Robert nodded, silent and curious as to the number devils explanation. Teplotaxl took
out his walking stick once again
and drew 3 red circles in the air,
then 3 blue squares.

How many total objects are there? Teplotaxl challenged.

6 objects: 3 red circles and 3 blue squares. If this is all it is, you arent helping
much. Robert replied.
You can be so oblivious sometimes! Teplotaxl exploded. Fine. You know what?
Ill just go. I thought I might visit you again considering how much you miss me, but I
guess not.
Wait! Im sorry! Robert cried. I want to hear what youre teaching me! Just as
soon as the number devils anger had come, like usual, it had vanished.
Very well then. So there are 6 objects. Lets say, for example, I throw all of the
objects into a brown burlap sack. Teplotaxl pondered as he drew a brown sack in the
air and waved the objects into it.
 Now tell me, Robert. What is the chance that I will reach into this bag and pull
out a red circle?
Hmm Robert thought out loud, There are 3 red circles out of all 6 objects,
so You have a 3/6 chance of pulling out a red circle.
Splendid! The number devil cried. The probability of me pulling out a red circle
is 3 out of 6. You could also express it as a simplified fraction, 1/2, as a percent, 50%, or
as a decimal number, 0.5. The probability of any event happening ranges from 0 to 1,
with 0 being an impossibility, and with 1 being an absolute certainty.
Robert thought, wow! I had no idea that this stuff was so in-depth!
Teplotaxl then pulled out a red circle and set it aside before starting his questions
again. Okay, now what is the chance of me pulling out a blue square? Robert started
thinking again.
Okay, so 3 blue squares as well as 3 red circles. So 3/6.
Incorrect! The number devil shouted. I removed one object, a red circle. If I
removed a red circle, then there would only be 5 objects. Therefore, the probability of
pulling out a blue square is 3/5, 60%, or 0.6. This is called without relacement, similar
to combinations and the handshakes. Robert remembered the classroom seating
ordeal, and decided to not bring it back up.
Okay, I understand, but what does this have to do with the table? Robert
questioned. The number devil then brought Robert to the table again and gestured
towards it.
As for the question, let me first introduce you to the contingency table. A
contingency table is practically a table of super-probable probabilities. How many total
people are being looked at in this table? Teplotaxl inquired.
There are 500 people. Robert replied. Its where the two Total columns
intersect, right?
Precisely, dear boy, which bring me to my next topic. Look at the equation again.
P(3 pretzels Sick)=?

Do you see the symbol that looks like a lowercase N? Thats called an intersection
sign. When you see that sign, you must find where the data from both columns
intersects. In this case, we will be looking at this data here.
 This
is where people who ate 3 pretzels got sick. 150 people ate 3 pretzels and got sick,
which isnt really surprising. Teplotaxl rambled. So using the information you know
now, could you possibly solve the equation?
I can try, Robert replied, but I dont know if Ill do it right. The number devil
handed Robert his walking stick and backed away. Robert started by writing out the
number of people in the intersection.

P(3 pretzels Sick)=150

He sat and thought for a moment, then remembered the sack with the circles and
squares in them. There were 6 objects total, Robert thought, and in this one, there are
500. I can find the probability of people by dividing the number of people who got sick
from eating 3 pretzels by all of the people.

P(3 pretzels Sick)=150 /500

= 3/10
=0.3, 3/10, 30%

So the probability of eating 3 pretzels and getting sick is 30%, or 3 in 10. I guess Mr.
Bockel is in the other 7/10 of people. Robert joked. The number devil laughed a quiet
laugh, and then spoke to Robert once again.
Now, Robert, heres a trickier one:

P(2 pretzels Sick)=?

Can you solve this for me? Teplotaxl challenged yet again. Robert sat and stared at
the problem before the number devil realized what he had left out. Oh! He
remembered. The U shaped figure stands for union. When it is present, look at the
total number of people in each column and row being used and add them. Robert
understood, and went to work solving it. He thought, all I have to do is add together the
total number of people who got sick and the total number of people who ate two
pretzels, and divide them by the total number of people.
 P(2 pretzels Sick)=370 /500
=37/50, 74%, 0.74.

Correct! Shouted Teplotaxl. 74% of people ate 2 pretzels whether or not they got sick
and got sick from eating however many pretzels. Teplotaxl thought hard until he came
up with the motherload of contingency table problems.

P( Not sick1 pretzel)=?

This is called a condition. the number devil explained. It tells you what set of data
youre looking from. In this problem, it tells you out of all the people who didnt get sick,
how many ate 1 pretzel? Think you can handle it?
Yes, I can. Robert stated. He started thinking again. So I need to take the total
amount of people who didnt get sick, which is 247, and take the number of people who
ate 1 pretzel and didnt get sick, 200, and divide them by one another? Easy enough, he
thought.

P(Not sick1 pretzel)=200/247

= 0.80971659919

Correct! Teplotaxl cried. You caught on way faster than I thought you

wouldve!

Now make it as a percentage. he added on

Pfft, thats easy. Just take the answer and multiply it by 100, which would make it
80%! Robert stated confidently.
Good, youre understanding this well. said Teplotaxl. Im glad Ive been able to
teach you all these things, Ro-
Robert woke up abruptly at the sound of his mother yelling his name. He sprung
out of bed and looked at his alarm clock. He had overslept! He ran to his closet and
threw on the first set of clothes he could find and ran out to catch the bus.
 He walked into Mr. Bockels classroom and sat down, noticing that many of the
students were droopy-eyed and appeared tired. It must just not be our day, Robert
though.
Mr. Bockel took a seat at his desk and began speaking.
Now, as you all may know, the school year is coming to an end. he rambled.
Before it does, Ive got one more subject to cover as a part of the curriculum.
In big block letters on the chalkboard at the front of the class, he wrote out 3
words: Probability, Contingency, and Tables. Robert smiled to himself and silently
thanked the number devil, and got ready to work.