HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

18 October, 2016

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

MAJOR CURRENCY VIEW POINT
Prev.
Close Chg. % Chg. RUPEE WEAKENS ON WORRIES OVER FCNR DOLLAR OUFLOW
Close
The rupee starts the week with weak note on stronger dollar and dollar
USDINR 66.890 66.715 0.175 66.890
outflow from foreign institutional investors (FIIs) in debt markets. The
DXY INDX 97.693 98.001 -0.308 -0.31% fall in local equity and Asian currencies markets also dampened the
EURUSD 1.102 1.0996 0.002 0.20% sentiments. The rupee ended at 66.89 against the US dollar, down
GBPUSD 1.223 1.2154 0.008 0.63% 0.26% from its previous close of 66.72. The home currency opened at
USDJPY 103.780 104.13 -0.350 -0.34% 66.81 a dollar and touched a high and a low of 66.76 and 66.90
DG USDINR 66.867 66.9299 -0.063 -0.09% respectively. From 3 to 14 October, FIIs sold $989.30 million in debt
and so far this year it has sold $728.40 million.
GLOBAL INDICES Countrys foreign exchange reserves declined by a huge $4.343 billion
to $367.646 billion in the week to 7 October, as the country expected
to witness massive dollar outflow due to billions of dollars in deposits
Prev. nearing their maturity. India had raised about $25 billion by way of
Close Chg. % Chg.
Close three-year FCNR (foreign currency non-resident) deposits in
SGX NIFTY 8561.5 8531.5 30 0.35% September 2013 to overcome the sharp fall in the rupee.
NIFTY 8520.4 8583.4 -63 -0.73% 10-year govt. bond yield at 6.77%, back to levels seen ahead of Oct. 4
SENSEX 27530.0 27673.6 -144 -0.52% policy decision where RBI delivered a surprise 25 bps rate cut.
HANG-SENG 23261.1 23037.5 224 0.97% Domestic macro conditions are conducive. The market may consolidate
NIKKEI 16913.3 16900.1 13 0.08% around current levels for some time in absence of immediate positive
triggers.
SHANGHAI 3044.3 3041.2 3 0.10%
Spot USDINR is having resistance around 67.07 while 66.50 acts as
S&P INDEX 2126.5 2133.0 -6 -0.30%
resistance in near term.
DOW JONES 18086.4 18138.4 -52 -0.29%
Dollar Takes Breather, Inches Away From Seven Month High
NASDAQ 5199.8 5214.2 -14 -0.27%
The dollar took a breather from its recent gains on Tuesday, edging
FTSE 6947.6 7013.6 -66 -0.94% away from seven-month highs against a currency basket as traders
CAC 4450.2 4470.9 -21 -0.46% await for major economic releases. The dollar index slipped 0.2% to
DAX 10503.6 10580.4 -77 -0.73% 97.733, after rising as high as 98.169 in the previous session, its
highest level since March 10.
INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY (Provisional Rs. In Cr)
Eurozone inflation accelerated as estimated in September to the
highest level since late 2014, final data from Eurostat showed Monday.
Segment 17-Oct-16 14-Oct-16 Inflation rose to 0.4% from 0.2% in August. A similar high rate was
last seen October 2014.
Equity -945.41 -846.00
Euro added 0.2% to $1.1017, recovered from a nearly three-month
Debt -607.40 -1880.09 low of $1.0962 hit on Monday, amid rise in inflation. The investors
looked ahead to the European Central Bank's policy meeting later this
week for further move.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

USDINR OCT. FUTURE DAILY CHART

Technical Observations
The USDINR Oct. Future is trading below 20 SDMA while resisting around 200 SDMA.
Momentum Oscillators hovering near break even level suggesting consolidation.
The pair is having resistance around 67.08, the falling trend line adjoining high 68.255 and 67.6975, and 67.22, the 200 SDMA.
The pair could witness short covering amid rebound in momentum oscillators. However, the outlook remains bearish till pair sustain
above 67.27 on closing basis.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL LEVELS

Near Month Fut. Last Pivot S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

USDINR 66.98 66.93 66.73 66.79 66.88 67.03 67.08 67.18
EURINR 73.70 73.62 73.26 73.35 73.52 73.79 73.88 74.05
GBPINR 81.46 81.48 81.07 81.21 81.34 81.61 81.75 81.88
JPYINR 64.32 64.27 63.95 64.04 64.18 64.41 64.50 64.64

Wkly Wkly 1-Mth. 1-Mth. 52 Wk 52 Wk

Spot 5 DMA 20 DMA 50 DMA 100 DMA 200 DMA
High Low High Low High Low

USDINR 66.96 66.53 67.14 66.33 68.79 64.73 66.75 66.72 66.81 67.03 67.07
EURINR 74.60 73.46 75.44 73.27 77.49 70.24 73.88 74.52 74.80 74.93 74.75
GBPINR 82.74 81.21 89.29 81.18 101.87 81.18 81.54 84.61 86.65 89.22 92.78
JPYINR 64.85 63.93 66.78 63.92 68.11 53.32 64.17 65.19 65.54 64.93 62.36

CURRENCY MOVEMENT

Open Chg. In
Currency Open High Low Close Chg. Chg. in OI Volume
Interest Volume
SPOT USDINR 66.81 66.90 66.76 66.89 0.18 -- -- -- --
USDINR OCT. FUT. 66.90 66.99 66.84 66.98 0.16 1269752 26109 828570 -118514
SPOT EURINR 73.31 73.55 73.27 73.54 0.05 -- -- -- --
EURINR OCT. FUT. 73.54 73.71 73.45 73.70 0.04 29128 -1000 30523 230
SPOT GBPINR 81.20 81.45 81.18 81.27 -0.35 -- -- -- --
GBPINR OCT. FUT. 81.55 81.62 81.35 81.46 -0.38 91222 34 61442 1790
SPOT JPYINR 64.03 64.24 63.92 64.18 0.24 -- -- -- --
JPYINR OCT. FUT. 64.13 64.36 64.13 64.32 0.24 22695 -1068 29822 -11434

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior

10/17/2016 04:31 UK Rightmove House Prices YoY Oct -- 4.20% 4.00%
10/17/2016 10:00 JN Industrial Production YoY Aug F -- 4.50% 4.60%
10/17/2016 14:30 EC CPI YoY Sep F 0.40% 0.40% 0.40%
10/17/2016 18:00 US Empire Manufacturing Oct 1.00 -6.80 -1.99
10/17/2016 18:45 US Industrial Production MoM Sep 0.20% 0.10% -0.50%
10/17/2016 18:45 US Capacity Utilization Sep 75.60% 75.40% 75.30%
10/17/2016 18:45 US Manufacturing (SIC) Production Sep 0.10% 0.20% -0.40%

ECONOMIC EVENTS TODAY

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Prior

10/18/2016 14:00 UK CPI YoY Sep 0.90% 0.60%
10/18/2016 14:00 UK RPI YoY Sep 2.00% 1.80%
10/18/2016 14:00 UK House Price Index YoY Aug 7.80% 8.30%
10/18/2016 18:00 US CPI YoY Sep 1.50% 1.10%
10/18/2016 19:30 US NAHB Housing Market Index Oct 63 65

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 Technical Analyst: Vinay Rajani (vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com)
Currency Analyst: Dilip Parmar(dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com)

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
Phone: (079)66070168, Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: pcg.advisory@hdfcsec.com

Disclosure:

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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]