HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

29 November, 2016

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

MAJOR CURRENCY
VIEW POINT
Prev. Rupee Registers Weakest Close since Aug. 2013 on Fund Outflow
Close Chg. % Chg.
Close
USDINR 68.775 68.473 0.303 0.44% The rupee starts the week on light note as it tumbled by 30 paise to
DXY INDX 101.250 101.27 -0.020 -0.02% close at a fresh 2016-low of 68.78 against the US dollar amid nearly $5
EURUSD 1.060 1.061 -0.001 -0.06% billion outflows from foreign institutional investors (FIIs) in local equity
GBPUSD 1.240 1.240 0.000 0.03% and bond markets since the government announced the demonetisation
USDJPY 112.000 112.32 -0.320 -0.28% scheme. Also, on going redemption pressure on foreign currency non-
resident (FCNR) deposits also aided to the rupee woes.
DG USDINR 68.875 68.970 -0.095 -0.14%
It closed at 68.78 a dollar, down 0.44% from its previous close of
GLOBAL INDICES 68.47. The home currency opened at 68.43 against the US dollar and
touched a low of 68.80 a dollar. So far this year, it has fallen 3.81%.
India sovereign bonds slide most in fifteen months after RBI told lenders
Prev. over the weekend to set aside more deposits as reserves in a bid to
Close Chg. % Chg.
Close temper excess banking liquidity. Yield on 6.97% govt. bond due
SGX NIFTY 8155.5 8149.5 6 0.07% September 2026 rises 9bps to 6.32%; thats the most for a 10-year
NIFTY 8126.9 8114.3 13 0.16% bond since Aug. 24, 2015.
The one month non deliverable forwards quoted at 68.90 from
SENSEX 26350.2 26316.3 34 0.13%
yesterdays 68.99 at 5 pm suggesting lower opening at domestic
HANG-SENG 22863.3 22830.6 33 0.14% bourses. However, the overall bias still remains on bullish side with
NIKKEI 18312.5 18356.9 -44 -0.24% initial weak starts. Technically, USDINR Dec. Future is having resistance
SHANGHAI 3277.1 3277.0 0 0.00% at 69.25 and support 68.70.
S&P INDEX 2201.7 2213.4 -12 -0.53%
DOW JONES 19097.9 19152.1 -54 -0.28% Dollar off recent highs as U.S. Treasury yields pull back
The dollar marks losses early today as US Treasury yields came off the
NASDAQ 5368.8 5398.9 -30 -0.56%
their multi month highs. The dollar index scaled a nearly 14-year peak
FTSE 6799.5 6840.8 -41 -0.60% of 102.05 on l24th November before profit-taking and oil jitters brought
CAC 4510.4 4550.3 -40 -0.88% it back down. It has been hovering around 101.160, earlier today.
DAX 10582.7 10699.3 -117 -1.09% Dollar selling into the Tokyo fix absorbed by funds eyeing a recovering
Nikkei while yields on U.S. treasury futures are back to little changed
INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY (Provisional Rs. In Cr) after earlier falls. The dollar quotes at 112 yen, off its overnight low of
111.35 but well below an 8-month high of 113.90 touched on Friday.
Segment 28-Nov-16 25-Nov-16 Month-end selling is expected to weigh on USD later in the week,
though there was no suggestion that todays decline was anything more
Equity -461.29 -2038.30 than profit-taking on longs set since the election.
Debt -487.64 -960.09 There has been no economic news to drive the direction of trading at
the start of the new trading week. But today, traders will look to U.S.
third-quarter gross domestic product data as well as readings on
consumer confidence and consumption for further cues.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
USDINR DEC. FUTURE DAILY CHART

Technical Observations
The USDINR December future rebounds after two days correction, to close at 68.96 adding 0.35%.
The pair sustained above short term moving averages and continues forming higher highs and lows, indicating bullishness.
Oscillators on daily and weekly time scale showing sign of strength, favoring bulls.
The pair would continue trading with bullish bias with higher side resistance at 69.25 and support 68.25.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL LEVELS

Near Month Fut. Last Pivot S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3 View For The Day

USDINR 68.96 68.84 68.30 68.44 68.70 69.10 69.25 69.50 Bullish
EURINR 73.20 73.29 72.55 72.82 73.01 73.48 73.75 73.94 Bullish
GBPINR 85.55 85.76 84.57 85.04 85.30 86.02 86.48 86.74 Consolidation
JPYINR 61.49 61.46 60.62 60.89 61.19 61.76 62.03 62.33 Bullish

Wkly Wkly 1-Mth. 1-Mth. 52 Wk 52 Wk

Spot 5 DMA 20 DMA 50 DMA 100 DMA 200 DMA
High Low High Low High Low

USDINR 68.86 68.02 68.86 66.34 68.86 66.07 68.56 67.50 67.05 67.03 67.12
EURINR 72.96 72.15 75.64 72.07 77.49 70.29 72.73 73.12 73.76 74.25 74.80
GBPINR 85.90 83.88 86.00 80.89 101.87 80.89 85.29 83.92 83.74 85.97 90.63
JPYINR 61.78 60.20 66.11 60.20 68.11 53.86 61.23 62.70 63.97 64.59 63.11

CURRENCY MOVEMENT

Open Chg. In
Currency Open High Low Close Chg. Chg. in OI Volume
Interest Volume
SPOT USDINR 68.43 68.80 68.41 68.78 0.30 -- -- -- --
USDINR DEC. FUT. 68.59 68.99 68.59 68.96 0.35 1485240 710007 2793556 2188678
SPOT EURINR 72.94 73.34 72.92 72.95 0.41 -- -- -- --
EURINR DEC. FUT. 73.11 73.57 73.10 73.20 0.48 33568 11784 52491 39503
SPOT GBPINR 85.71 86.00 85.32 85.33 0.05 -- -- -- --
GBPINR DEC. FUT. 85.84 86.23 85.51 85.55 0.07 22562 5464 91320 75426
SPOT JPYINR 61.19 61.50 61.10 61.26 0.59 -- -- -- --
JPYINR DEC. FUT. 61.34 61.73 61.16 61.49 0.61 14921 5104 41114 29632

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior

11/28/2016 14:30 EC M3 Money Supply YoY Oct 5.00% 4.40% 5.10%
11/28/2016 21:00 US Dallas Fed Manf. Activity Nov 2.0 10.2 -1.5

ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Prior
11/29/2016 15:00 UK Mortgage Approvals Oct 65.0k 62.9k
11/29/2016 15:30 EC Economic Confidence Nov 106.8 106.3
11/29/2016 15:30 EC Consumer Confidence Nov F -6.1 -6.1
11/29/2016 19:00 US GDP Annualized QoQ 3Q S 3.00% 2.90%
11/29/2016 19:00 US Personal Consumption 3Q S 2.30% 2.10%
11/29/2016 19:00 US GDP Price Index 3Q S 1.50% 1.50%
11/29/2016 19:00 US Core PCE QoQ 3Q S -- 1.70%
11/29/2016 20:30 US Consumer Confidence Index Nov 101.3 98.6

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 Technical Analyst: Vinay Rajani (vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com)
Currency Analyst: Dilip Parmar(dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com)

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
Phone: (079)66070168, Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: pcg.advisory@hdfcsec.com

Disclosure:

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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]