HSL PCG CURRENCY DAILY

17 February, 2017

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 VIEW POINT
STRATEGY FOR THE DAY Rupee Strengthen on Dollar Buying by Banks

EURINR FEB. FUT. Rupee snaps its two-day gains to plunge by 17 paise to close at
67.07 on fresh dollar demand from private banks and importers
BUY ARND 71.50 SL 71.25 TGT 71.90 despite weakness in the American currency in the overseas market.
However, good foreign capital inflows coupled with sharp recovery in
MAJOR CURRENCY the equity market restricted the rupee's loss against the dollar. The
rupee closed at 67.07down 0.25%, its steepest fall since 9
Prev. January, from its previous close of 66.91.
Close Chg. % Chg. In media appearance, RBI Governor Urjit Patel, value of rupee is
Close
market-determined central bank intervenes only in episodes of
USDINR 67.07 66.91 0.166 0.25%
undue volatility.
DXY INDX 100.50 100.44 0.060 0.06% Indias 10-year bond yield closed at 6.846%from its Wednesdays
EURUSD 1.067 1.067 0.000 -0.02% close of 6.862%
GBPUSD 1.251 1.249 0.002 0.13% Near term focus are on the goods and services tax (GST) meet and
USDJPY 113.420 113.240 0.180 0.16% results of upcoming state election results on 18 February and 11
DG USDINR 67.137 66.912 0.225 0.34% March, respectively.
The one month NDF USDINR quoted at 67.31 from yesterdays
GLOBAL INDICES 67.23 suggesting positive opening at domestic bourses.
Technically, Spot USDINR expected to witness short covering rally in
near term with resistance placed at 67.27 and support at 66.76.
Prev.
Close Chg. % Chg.
Close Dollar Slips To One Week Low on US Treasury Yields fall
SGX NIFTY 8825.0 8788.0 37 0.42% The dollar was stuck near a one-week low against a basket of
NIFTY 8778.0 8724.7 53 0.61% currencies early today, after upbeat U.S. economic data failed to lift
SENSEX 28301.3 28155.6 146 0.52% Treasury yields. The dollar index stood at 100.570 after hitting
HANG-SENG 24099.6 24107.7 -8 -0.03% 100.410, its lowest since Feb. 9 plumbed overnight when it slid
0.7%.
NIKKEI 19234.9 19347.5 -113 -0.58%
Data released yesterday shed more positive light on the U.S.
SHANGHAI 3233.5 3229.6 4 0.12% economy, with the Philadelphia manufacturing index on jumping to a
S&P INDEX 2347.2 2349.3 -2 -0.09% 33-year high. the robust data was unable to sustain a rise in
DOW JONES 20619.8 20611.9 8 0.04% Treasury yields which had already climbed to three-week highs
NASDAQ 5814.9 5819.4 -5 -0.08% midweek, leaving the dollar to slide.
FTSE Dollar-yen dropped to near 113.00 after rising to within four pips of
7277.9 7302.4 -24 -0.34%
115.00 in the prior session, a reflection of sensitivity to fluctuations
CAC 4899.5 4924.9 -25 -0.52%
in Treasury yields.
DAX 11757.2 11793.9 -37 -0.31% Broadly, dollar index is consolidating in the range of 99.23 and
103.82.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

SPOT USDINR DAILY CHART

Technical Observations

USDINR witnessed sharp up move with volume on Thursdays trade and closed at 67.07 with the gain of 17 paise.
Momentum oscillators given positive cross over in oversold zone suggesting continuation of short covering in the pair.
The price action of yesterday suggesting near term bounce and could touch the 67.27 level, the 200 days moving average while on
down side fresh selling can be seen below 66.76.

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

TECHNICAL LEVELS

Contracts Last Pivot S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3 View For The Day

USDINR FEB17 67.11 67.06 66.81 66.88 66.99 67.18 67.25 67.36 Short Covering
EURINR FEB17 71.36 71.27 70.76 70.90 71.13 71.49 71.63 71.86 Short Covering
GBPINR FEB17 83.93 83.82 82.98 83.22 83.57 84.17 84.41 84.77 Short Covering
JPYINR FEB17 59.05 58.97 58.54 58.66 58.86 59.17 59.28 59.48 Short Covering

Wkly Wkly 1-Mth. 1-Mth. 52 Wk 52 Wk

Spot 5 DMA 20 DMA 50 DMA 100 DMA 200 DMA
High Low High Low High Low
USDINR 67.44 66.77 68.39 66.77 68.86 66.07 66.96 67.51 67.77 67.49 67.27
EURINR 72.50 71.06 73.35 70.55 77.01 70.42 71.11 72.16 71.81 72.65 73.91
GBPINR 84.28 83.25 86.27 81.78 100.49 80.89 83.59 84.34 84.02 83.82 87.40
JPYINR 60.27 58.75 60.49 57.93 68.11 57.25 58.86 59.45 58.85 60.91 62.72

CURRENCY MOVEMENT
Abs Open Chg. in Chg. in
Currency Open High Low Close Volume
Chg. Interest OI Volume
SPOT USDINR 66.95 67.09 66.91 67.07 0.17 -- -- -- --
USDINR FEB. FUT. 67.00 67.13 66.95 67.11 0.14 1472234 -62819 811700 116241
SPOT EURINR 71.05 71.33 70.95 71.28 0.67 -- -- -- --
EURINR FEB. FUT. 71.12 71.41 71.04 71.36 0.62 59820 -9216 53260 2178
SPOT GBPINR 83.42 83.98 83.42 83.84 0.67 -- -- -- --
GBPINR FEB. FUT. 83.46 84.06 83.46 83.93 0.62 40089 -8731 62454 18565
SPOT JPYINR 58.82 59.04 58.70 58.99 0.58 -- -- -- --
JPYINR FEB. FUT. 58.83 59.09 58.77 59.05 0.52 21406 -3121 34653 12559

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 ECONOMIC EVENTS RELEASED

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior

02/16/2017 19:00 US Housing Starts Jan 1230k 1246k 1226k

02/16/2017 19:00 US Building Permits Jan 1232k 1285k 1228k
02/16/2017 19:00 US Initial Jobless Claims 11-Feb 243k 239k 234k
02/16/2017 19:00 US Continuing Claims 4-Feb -- 2076k 2078k

ECONOMIC EVENTS TODAY

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Prior

02/17/2017 14:30 EC ECB Current Account SA Dec -- 36.1b

02/17/2017 14:30 EC Current Account NSA Dec -- 40.5b
02/17/2017 15:30 EC Construction Output YoY Dec -- 0.00%
02/17/2017 20:30 US Leading Index Jan 0.40% 0.50%

PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]

 Technical Analyst: Vinay Rajani (vinay.rajani@hdfcsec.com)
Currency Analyst: Dilip Parmar(dilip.parmar@hdfcsec.com)

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042
HDFC securities Limited, 4th Floor, Astral Tower, Above HDFC Bank Ltd, Nr.Mithakhali Six Roads, Navrangpura, Ahmedabad 380009.
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PRIVATE CLIENT GROUP [PCG]