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Challenges of controlling

in a capital-intensive company
Visit @ Technische Universitt Mnchen
Munich, January 16th, 2013

Dominik Asam
CFO, Infineon Technologies AG
Agenda

Infineon at a glance

Key performance indicators

Managing the cycle

Wrap-up

Copyright Infineon Technologies 2012. All rights reserved. Page 2


Infineon at a glance

The Company

Infineon provides semiconductor and system solutions,


focusing on three central needs of our modern society:
Energy efficiency, mobility and security
Revenue in fiscal year 2012: 3.904 billion
Headquartered in Neubiberg (Munich), global footprint
26,658 employees (as of September 2012)
Vertically integrated value creation comprising:
21 R&D locations
12 production sites
34 sales offices

Copyright Infineon Technologies 2012. All rights reserved. Page 3


Infineon holds top positions in
all targeted semiconductor markets

Automotive Power Chip Card

#2 #1 #1
Renesas 14% Infineon 12% Infineon 25%

Infineon 10% Mitsubishi 8% NXP 24%

STMicro 9% Toshiba 7% Samsung 21%

Freescale 8% STMicro 6% STMicro 18%

NXP 6% Int. Rectifier 5% SHHIC 10%

Calendar year 2011 Calendar year 2011 Calendar year 2011


Source: Strategy Analytics, April 2012. Source: IMS Research (an IHS company), Source: IMS Research (an IHS company),
July 2012. August 2012.

Copyright Infineon Technologies 2012. All rights reserved. Page 4


The ToMM market grows much faster than
global GDP, but it is also more cyclical

Growth rates year-over-year (Q1 1997 Q4e 2013)


CAGR GDP: 3.7% CAGR ToMM: 5.6%
(19972013e) (19972013e,WSTS)
Forecast
5% 70%
Real GDP
World economy, real GDP growth [y/y%]

World semi [ToMM] market growth [y/y%]


4%
50%
3%

2% 30%

1%
10%
0%
1997 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 `12 2013e
-10%
-1% ToMM
-2% -30%

-3%
-50%
-4%
Red line: WSTS
-5% Orange line: IHS iSuppli -70%
ToMM: Total semiconductor market revenue (US-Dollar based) without Memory & Microprocessor.
Real GDP: Inflation adjusted (real) Gross Domestic Product of all countries of the world; total of local values converted with in each case current
US-$ exchange rates. World real GDP is from chain-weighted index. Year-over-year growth rates.
Source: IHS Global Insight (15 November 2012); WSTS (16 November 2012); IHS iSuppli, Interim Q4 2012 AMFT Update (7 November 2012).
Copyright Infineon Technologies 2012. All rights reserved. Page 5
We address the market with our
four business divisions

FY 2012 revenue: 3,904m

Industrial Power
Automotive
Control

ATV IPC
1,660m 728m

CCS PMM
457m 929m
Chip Card Power Management
& Security OOS+ & Multimarket
C&E*
130m

* Other Operating Segments;


Corporate & Eliminations.
Copyright Infineon Technologies 2012. All rights reserved. Page 6
Infineon is the DAX30 company with
the highest revenue share in Asia

Revenue split by region

48% 44%
36% 38%
11% 12%

5% 6%
therein: 27% 23% therein: 17% 17%
Americas Germany China
Japan
Asia / Pacific
Europe, Middle East,
Africa (EMEA)

FY 2011 FY 2012
Copyright Infineon Technologies 2012. All rights reserved. Page 7
More than half our global staff are based in
Asia/Pacific

Employees by country
USA
491 employees
181 East Coast
310 West Coast

Europe Asia/Pacific
12,427 employees 13,740 employees
73 Great Britain 1871 Singapore
2988 Austria 2297 Indonesia
8408 Germany 209 India
79 Portugal 7600 Malaysia
34 France 1423 China
94 Italy 20 Hongkong
179 Romania 116 Japan
24 Sweden 87 Korea
541 Hungary 108 Taiwan
As of FY 2012 7 Other Europe 9 Australia
Copyright Infineon Technologies 2012. All rights reserved. Page 8
Finance employees support
our operations worldwide

Countries with employees working in finance functions


1 Germany
Munich
Regensburg
Belecke
Dresden
Ditzingen
8 9
2 Austria
7
3 Hungary 1
3
4 Italy 6
2
5 Portugal 10 20
5
6 France 4 14

7 Great Britain 17
16
8 Netherlands
15 18
9 Sweden
10 USA
11 Singapore 12
13
12 Malaysia
13 Indonesia 11

14 China1)
19
15 Hong Kong
16 India
17 South Korea
18 Taiwan
19 Australia
20 Japan
As of FY 2012
1) China without Hong Kong
Copyright Infineon Technologies 2012. All rights reserved. Page 9
Own production capacities are key
to our differentiation strategy

Worldwide production sites

Morgan Hill Dresden Kulim Beijing Wuxi

Warstein Singapore

Regensburg Villach Cegld Malacca Batam

Frontend (wafer processing in clean room) Backend (assembly, packaging and testing of individual chips)
Copyright Infineon Technologies 2012. All rights reserved. Page 10
Infineon's challenges are reflected
in recent years' figures

m EUR FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 Revenue highly fluctuating due to


Revenue 3.295 3.997 3.904 cyclical market
YoY growth in % 51% 21% -2%
High fixed costs due to capital
Cost of goods sold -2.041 -2.332 -2.460
intensive business model
Gross profit 1.254 1.665 1.443
Gross Margin 38% 42% 37% Gross margin strongly affected by
R&D expenses -399 -439 -454 idle capacity cost (fixed costs!)
In % of revenue -12% -11% -12%
High and steady R&D spending
SG&A expenses -385 -449 -473
for innovative, competitive
In % of revenue -12% -11% -12%
products in the mid to long term
Other oper. inc./exp. 4 8 11
Segment result 475 786 527 Operating profitability strongly
In % of revenue 14% 20% 13% dependent on revenue growth

Sustainable profitability is challenging goal in the fast moving semiconductor


industry
Good planning of revenue and corresponding manufacturing capacities is very
important, but likewise very difficult due to market cyclicality
Tight controlling is key in order to react fast when economy and markets turn

Copyright Infineon Technologies 2012. All rights reserved. Page 11


Agenda

Infineon at a glance

Key performance indicators

Managing the cycle

Wrap-up

Copyright Infineon Technologies 2012. All rights reserved. Page 12


Healthy financials as consequence of
a sound business model

High Performance Company Monitor

Financials
Financials

Ensure Sustainable
Profitable Growth

Customers
Customer value

Drive Innovation Become Preferred


Differentiate as
for Customer Partner in Regional
Quality Leader
Success Growth Markets

Processes
Constantly Become
Leaner and Faster
Enablers

People
Foster Leadership Excellence
Have the Right
and Build a Strong
Competencies in Place
High Performance Culture

Copyright Infineon Technologies 2012. All rights reserved. Page 13


Summary value driver tree
for profitable growth
Objectives Goal

Ensure Sustainable Profitable Growth

15% Segment Result Margin through the cycle


10% revenue growth p.a. through the cycle
Revenue growth with less incremental capital employed
Drivers

Sustainable Profitability Capital Employed Turnover Revenue Growth

COGS Capital Employed


R&D, SG&A
(Gross Margin)
Fixed Assets Working Capital

Sales / R&D Yield FE/BE fabs & Payment Design wins


productivity Flow Factor equipment terms Pricing
Project NPV Capacity (outsourcing) Inventory Capacity in line
Travel & utilization Licenses policy with demand
Entertain- COGS Software Outsourcing Outsourcing
ment productivity Goodwill IP license income

Copyright Infineon Technologies 2012. All rights reserved. Page 14


Our bonus system aims at linking interests of
employees to key performance indicators

KPI Relevance for Infineon

Shows the linkage between profitability and capital


Return On resources required to run the business
Capital Employed Measures how efficiently Infineon is using its capital resources
(ROCE) ROCE is a very common financial measure in capital markets
and is disclosed by Infineon in the annual report

Measures Infineons ability to generate sufficient cash flows


from its operations to finance the daily business and to
Free Cash Flow fund the required growth investments
(FCF) Shows Infineons capability to cover its cash demand without
external sources of financing (like bank loans)
Infineon reports FCF externally on a quarterly basis

Measures the profitability of a business from regular


operations excluding special effects (internal figure for
Segment Result operating profit without special effects)
Margin Shows the percentage of revenue which converts into profit
before interest, tax and special effects
Key financial measure reported by Infineon on a quarterly basis
Copyright Infineon Technologies 2012. All rights reserved. Page 15
Definition:
Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)

Calculation scheme Explanations

ROCE combines the income of a


Net Operating Profit After Tax specific period and the capital used
ROCE1) =
Capital employed
to generate this income. It measures
how efficiently a company manages
Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) its resources.
-/+ Non-Segment profit/loss
ROCE is measured as a percentage.
-/+ Other income/expenses
-/+ Tax expense/benefits ROCE from continuing operations (as
= Net Operating Profit After Tax (NOPAT) opposed to discontinued operations)
forms the base for the incentive
calculation and bonus payouts.
Total assets
cash & cash equivalents
financial investments
assets held-for-sale
current liabilities
+ short-term debt
+ liabilities held-for-sale
= Capital employed
1) From continuing operations
Copyright Infineon Technologies 2012. All rights reserved. Page 16
Definition:
Free Cash Flow (FCF)

Calculation scheme Explanations

Net income1) Free Cash Flow (FCF) is defined as


+ Depreciation & amortization net cash from operating and
+/- Change in working capital investing activities excluding
purchases or sales of financial
+/- Other non-cash charges
investments.
= Cash from operating activities1)
Free Cash Flow is measured in
+/- Change in property, plant & equipment
Euros.
+/- Change in intangible assets
Again, continuing operations only
+/- Other investing activities
(as opposed to discontinued
+/- Change in financial investments operations) are taken into account
= Cash from investing activities1) for the incentive calculation and
-/+ Change in financial investments bonus payouts.
= Free Cash Flow1)

1) From continuing operations


Copyright Infineon Technologies 2012. All rights reserved. Page 17
Definition:
Segment Result margin

Calculation scheme Explanations

Segment Result margin measures


Segment Result the operating performance of a
Segment Result margin =
Revenue
specific business excluding special
effects.
Revenue Segment Result is the operating
- Cost of goods sold income (loss) excluding asset
- R&D expenses impairments (net), restructuring
- Sales & marketing expenses charges and other related closure
- General & administration expenses costs (net), share-based
+ Other operating income
compensation expense, acquisition-
related amortization and gains
- Other operating expense
(losses), gains (losses) on sales of
= Segment Result
assets, businesses, or interests in
subsidiaries, and other income
(expense), including litigation
settlement costs.
Segment Result margin is measured
in percentage.

Copyright Infineon Technologies 2012. All rights reserved. Page 18


The bonus KPIs are interlinked and connected
to current financial performance

Interaction of performance and bonus KPIs

FCF ROCE

Investing Operating Capital


NOPAT
Cash Flow Cash Flow Employed

Segment
Result

ROCE = Return On Capital Employed Positive for bonus KPI


FCF = Free Cash Flow
NOPAT = Net Operating Profit After Tax Gross xx Part of bonus system
Investing Cash Flow = divestments or low Margin
investments affect FCF positively

Copyright Infineon Technologies 2012. All rights reserved. Page 19


Deriving target margin from conservative cost of capital
estimate to ensure value creation

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) = Cost of equity1) = 10-12%


Value creation (EVA > 0) requires: ROCE > WACC

Current revenue
Capital expenditure = Depreciation
base

Future revenue Rule of thumb:


growth EUR 1 additional required EUR 1 additional
capital employed for revenue

Segment Result
ROCE before tax = margin

= SR margin x
ROCE
(1 15% tax)

If Segment Result margin > 15% then EVA2) > 0


1) Cost of debt negligible due to low debt level 2) Economic Value Added
Copyright Infineon Technologies 2012. All rights reserved. Page 20
Agenda

Infineon at a glance

Key performance indicators

Managing the cycle

Wrap-up

Copyright Infineon Technologies 2012. All rights reserved. Page 21


Margin targets in four typical semiconductor
market phases

Goal: 15% Segment Results margin over the cycle

Boom Stable/slightly growing

Margin: around 20% Margin: around 15%


ToMM growth: ToMM growth:
above 6% 3 to 6%
Utilization: Utilization:
over 95% 85 to 95%

Downturn Recession

Margin: around 10% Margin: around 0%


ToMM growth: -3 to +3% ToMM growth: significantly
Utilization: 75 to 85% below 0%
Utilization: less than 75%
Copyright Infineon Technologies 2012. All rights reserved. Page 22
We made high investments in production
capacity during upswing

Investments* Depreciation & Amortization

887 890

453 ~ 470
~400 428
336 364
325

115

FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY FY
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Guidance Guidance

* Investments in property, plant and equipment and in intangible assets; all figures in million
Copyright Infineon Technologies 2012. All rights reserved. Page 23
Investment decisions difficult due to long lead
times before start of production

12m 0 14 m 12m 36m


Equipment
specification Equipment lead time Installation & Production
& negotiation Qualification cycle time

Investment decision
Equipment 1
Equipment 2 16%
Equipment 3
Equipment 4
> 12 m
Equipment 5
Equipment 6
Equipment 7
Equipment
Equipment
8
9
32%
Equipment 10 >7m
Equipment 11
Equipment 12
Equipment 13
Equipment 14
Equipment 15
Equipment 16
Equipment 17
Equipment
Equipment
18
19 52%
Equipment 20 <7m
Equipment 21
Equipment 22 Preparation Period (Hook-up Ready for production)
Equipment 23 Lead Time + Preparation Time (Weeks)
Equipment 24
Equipment 25
Weeks

Time from decision making to sales approx. 18-24 months


Copyright Infineon Technologies 2012. All rights reserved. Page 24
and due to uncertainty regarding market
and revenue (demand) development
Frequency LOW HIGH
20 Five-year demand forecast consists of
18 too opti- too pes- 3 demand scenarios: LOW, MID & HIGH
mistic simisitic
(Year 1 Year 2)

16
Past quarterly forecasts (FCs) were
14 Yr1 26%
Mid-term

12 Yr2
normalized (LOW: -1; HIGH: +1) and
10 compared with actual figures
8
6
Accuracy of mid-term FCs (Year 1 2):
4
2 Unreliable with extreme deviations
0
Only 26% of actuals were within the fore-
-1.5-1
-1-0.5
-1.5-2
<-6
-5..-6
-4..-5
-3..-4
-2-3

5..6
00.5
0.51
11.5
1.52
2..3
3..4
4..5
-0.50

casted LOW-HIGH range, no-bell shaped


distribution
Frequency LOW HIGH
20 Accuracy of long-term FCs (Year 3 5):
18 too opti- too pes-
mistic simisitic With 35% within LOW-HIGH range and a
(Year 3 Year 5)

16
bell shaped distribution more accurate
35%
Long-term

14 Yr3
12 Yr4 than mid-term FCs
10 Yr5
8 Explanation: long-term FCs converge with
6
62% 3% long-term trends, less event-driven
4
2 BUT: Too optimistic since 62% of all
0 actuals were below LOW-value, typical
spreads are 2x higher than LOW and
<-6
-5..-6
-4..-5
-3..-4
-2-3

2..3
3..4
4..5
5..6
-0.50
-1.5-2
-1.5-1
-1-0.5

00.5
0.51
11.5
1.52

HIGH estimates (s=21%)

Copyright Infineon Technologies 2012. All rights reserved. Page 25


A positive revenue scenario can support an
investment decision

Scenario 1: Fast market (revenue Q3 FY12) Assumptions:


Prospect of extra
m
revenue from Q3 FY12
800 650
onwards
600
400 Needed capacity
investments: 430m
200
0
-200 Scenario outcome:
-400 Net present value
-600 (i=12%): 650m
FY12
FY12
FY12
FY13

FY13
FY13
FY14
FY14

FY14
FY15
FY15
FY15

FY16
FY16
FY16
FY16
FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15 Cash back within:


10 quarters
Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1

Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2

Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3

Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Internal rate of return:
75%
Cash-out for investments (discounted)
Cash-in from expected extra revenue (discounted) Investment in capacity
Cumulated net cash flow (discounted) attractive

Copyright Infineon Technologies 2012. All rights reserved. Page 26


and a more pessimistic revenue scenario
can oppose an investment decision

Scenario 2: Slow market (revenue Q1 FY14) Assumptions:


Prospect of extra
m
revenue from Q1 FY14
800
onwards
600
400 Needed capacity
158 investments: 430m
200
0
Scenario outcome:
-200
-400
Net present value
(i=12%): 158m
-600
Cash back within:
FY12

FY12
FY12

FY13
FY13

FY14
FY14

FY14
FY15

FY15
FY15

FY16
FY16
FY16
FY12

FY13

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16
18 quarters
Q2

Q1

Q4

Q3

Q2

Q1
Q1

Q3
Q4

Q2
Q3

Q1
Q2

Q4
Q1

Q3
Q4

Q2
Q3
Q4
Internal rate of return:
25%
Cash-out for investments (discounted)
Investment in capacity
Cash-in from expected extra revenue (discounted)
less attractive, idle
Cumulated net cash flow (discounted) capital employed!

Which is the "right" scenario?


Copyright Infineon Technologies 2012. All rights reserved. Page 27
Using statistical methods improves
decision making

Monte Carlo Simulation

Is a numerical simulation to estimate


distributions of uncertain outcomes
(such as net present values of
investment decisions)
by running repeated calculations
using probability distributions of
uncertain inputs (such as demand
scenarios, cost assumptions and
operational parameters) and their
correlations
It can also be used for option pricing
Why to use a statistical method?

Copyright Infineon Technologies 2012. All rights reserved. Page 28


Testing your gut feeling in a simple example

Isn't the judgment of an experienced manager just as good as a


simulation?

Well, here is a test:


Imagine the revenue of your business consists of two unrelated
product groups A and B. Each of these contribute approximately 10.
However, any revenue between 5 and 15 is equally likely.
What will your total revenue probability look like?
Probability

A B

5 15 5 15
?
10 30
Revenue

How well do you think you can judge more complex dependencies?
Copyright Infineon Technologies 2012. All rights reserved. Page 29
Applying Monte Carlo simulation to an
investment decision

Example: When is additional capacity needed?

Comparing current capacity with the most probable MID demand forecast from
the static three scenario planning (LOW-MID-HIGH), new capacity is needed not
before FY18
But: Is the MID scenario actually to happen? Historical indications:
Long-term MID demand FC on average 10% higher than actual demand,
fluctuating with a standard deviation of 21% due to market volatility
Unknown current market cycle phase poses additional uncertainty

Market cycle phases Actual demand vs. long-term MID FC

MID level
100%
? 90%

Av. actual demand


Volatility 10% below MID
s ~21%
1 example of 10,000 runs
Peak Bottom

Copyright Infineon Technologies 2012. All rights reserved. Page 30


Monte Carlo simulation creates a more
differentiated picture about capacity needs

Results of Monte Carlo simulation


10,000 runs with
Example of 1 run Result of 10,000 runs
randomly drawn
10% 85% input variables
LSPW starts per week)

Total demand

Probability
Residual 8"
(long-term market trend) NEW AREA
needed demand and cycle
1,600
1600000
capacity buffer development
Total demand FY14
(w/o noise) Like MID scenario,
Total demand MCS suggests with
1,100
1100000
(w/ noise)
30% 69% 50% probability
layer

additional capacity

Probability
Total demand NEW AREA
(short-term fluct.)
needed
need in FY18
8" equiv.
Demand (in thousand

600
600000 trigger point for
Capacity buffer FY16
investment FY16
BUT: with 30%
100
100000
0 50% 50% probability additional
Q1 Q3 Q5 Q7 Q9 Q11Q13Q15Q17Q19Q21Q23Q25Q27Q29Q31Q33Q35Q37Q39
capacity needed
Probability

FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY20 NEW AREA


needed
already in FY16
-400
-400000
trigger point FY14
New capacity area need FY18
Monitor
development!
Copyright Infineon Technologies 2012. All rights reserved. Page 31
Agenda

Infineon at a glance

Key performance indicators

Managing the cycle

Wrap-up

Copyright Infineon Technologies 2012. All rights reserved. Page 32


Infineon aims at a symbiosis of
economy and ecology

IFX is a key enabler of sustainable society


Environmental benefits Environmental burden
CO2 savings enabled CO2 burden of our total
through our products (1) operations (2) equivalent to
4,700,000 tons CO2 1,100,000 tons CO2
IFX enables a net ecological benefit of
3.6 million tons of CO2 emission reduction per year!

Infineon received the EN ISO 14001 and


OHSAS 18001 multi-site certification.
As one of the first semiconductor
Infineon is currently Europes companies worldwide, Infineon joined the
only semiconductor company Global Compact Initiative of the
member in the Dow Jones United Nations in 2004.
Sustainability Indexes.
1) Considering only automotive products, ballast control, PC power supply, controllers; real figure is higher.
2) Including manufacturing, transport, travel, material, chemistry, emissions, water, waste water.
Values are based on internal figures as well as official data.
Copyright Infineon Technologies 2012. All rights reserved. Page 33
Wrap-up

Important aspects for a sustainable business development

Sustainable business model is a must both in terms of


economics and ecology
Identification and addressing of overall trends and needs within
business and society
Sound knowledge of fundamental growth trends underlying the
market cycle to avoid distraction by short-term market
development
Be smart about pricing flexibility, e.g. options
Aequam memento rebus in arduis servare mentem,
non secus in bonis ab insolenti temperatam laetitia,
moriture Delli (Horace)

Copyright Infineon Technologies 2012. All rights reserved. Page 34


Thank you for your attention!

Q&A

Copyright Infineon Technologies 2012. All rights reserved. Page 35


Back-up

Copyright Infineon Technologies 2012. All rights reserved. Page 36


Infineon Market-oriented business structure

Divisions Core Applications

Powertrain; Hybrid and electric cars (drive control for


Automotive electric motor, battery management, charger); Chassis
and comfort electronics; Safety.

Renewable energy generation, transmission;

Customers
Industrial uninterruptable power supplies; electric drive control for
Power Control industrial applications; industrial vehicles; traction; home
appliances.

Power supplies for computers; Power supplies for


Power consumer electronics; Mobile devices for communication
Management and navigation; Cellular phone network; Infrastructure;
& Multimarket Inverter for photovoltaic rooftop systems; Light
management incl. LED lighting.

Mobile communication; Payment systems; Near Field


Communication (NFC); Electronic passports, ID cards,
Chip Card & healthcare cards, driver licenses; Transport, ticketing,
Security access control; Trusted computing; Authentication (e.g.
for pay TV, games consoles, accessories, spare parts,
industrial controllers).

Copyright Infineon Technologies 2012. All rights reserved. Page 37


New era: driving demand for
power semiconductors
'90 '10 '10 '30 Changes

Electrification of powertrain fuels demand


for high-power semis in cars and doubles
silicon content.
Courtesy: Tesla

Shift towards renewable energies


requires orders of magnitude more high-
power semis per MW of power generated.

Higher efficiency in power conversion


lowers CO2, material and electricity costs.
Courtesy: Facebook

Stronger demand for goods containing


power semis due to faster increase in
standard of living in BRIC countries.

Copyright Infineon Technologies 2012. All rights reserved. Page 38

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