Energy Policy 49 (2012) 731739

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Energy Policy
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Simulation of climate change impact on energy consumption in buildings,

case study of Iran
Gh.R. Roshan a,1, J.A Orosa b,2, T. Nasrabadi c,n
a
Department of Geography, Golestan University, Gorgan, Iran
b
Department of Energy and M.P., E.T.S.NyM. University of A Coruna, Paseo de Ronda 51, 15011 A Corun a, Spain
c
Faculty of Environment, University of Tehran, #23, zip code: 1417853111, Azin Avenue, Ghods Street, Enghelab Square, Tehran, Iran

H I G H L I G H T S

c The impact of climate changes on the need for energy consumption is simulated.
c Degree-day index is calculated in present and future scale.
c Future climate changes and degree-day values are modeled.

a r t i c l e i n f o abstract

Article history: The purpose of this research is to simulate the impact of climate changes on the need for energy
Received 22 February 2012 consumption in household cooling and heating systems using degree-day index. To this end, general
Accepted 11 July 2012 circulation model has been applied to identify future climate changes and simulate degree-day values.
Available online 4 August 2012
The research ndings show an increase of energy consumption for cooling in households in 2075. Also,
Keywords: with warm seasons prolonging and cold seasons shrinking in a year, the need for the continuous supply
Climate change of energy consumption for air cooling and ventilation increases.
Degree-day & 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Energy demand

1. Introduction Climate change, impacting on buildings energy consumption,

Energy consumption is one of the most important factors that
indicate the economic and industrial status of countries; however,
energy protection and conservation policy has become an impor-
tant research subject in developed and developing countries,
following the global energy crisis in 1970. Useful results have
been obtained in recent years, thanks to these studies. For
instance, while the increase in global primary energy consump-
tions was 4.4% in 2004, energy consumption increased only 2.7%
in 2005, representing a considerable decrease. Energy density
(consumption per $ GDP) is decreasing continuously in OECD
(Organization for European Economic Co-operation) and other
countries (Salta et al., 2009; Dombayc, 2009; Lior, 2008).
Abbreviations: MAGICC, Model for assessment of Greenhouse-gas induced
climate change; SCENGEN, Global and regional climate scenario generator; GCM,
General circulation models; IPCC, Intergovernmental panel on climate change;
SRES, Special report emission scenario
n
Corresponding author. Tel.: 98 21 61113183; fax: 98 21 66407719.
E-mail addresses: ghr.rowshan@gmail.com (Gh.R. Roshan),
jaorosa@udc.es (J. Orosa), tnasrabadi@ut.ac.ir,
tnasrabadi@gmail.com (T. Nasrabadi).
1
Tel.: 98 9171350305.
2
Tel.: 3498116700; fax: 34981167100.
is strongly affected by population growth and development of
buildings and industries. Nowadays, climatic changes are one of
the main problems of the world. The researches show that the surface
temperature of the earth will rise by approximately 1.45.8 1C
(Delfani et al., 2010).
The study done by Luterbacher et al. (2004) on European
seasonal and annual temperature variations shows the coldest
European winter has occurred in 1708 and the hottest summer in
2003. As a result of climatic changes, air humidity in cold seasons,
cooling load, and uncomfortable air conditions in buildings have
increased. For instance, moisture content in winter will increase
by 15% by 2020s and by up to 25% by 2050s. In London, cooling
degree-days have increased over 20% during 19761995 and by
2005 around 60%. These values will go up almost to 200% by 2080
(Roberts, 2008; Delfani et al., 2010).
The impact of climate changes on the energy consumption of a
country for space heating and cooling depends on the current and
future regional climate, the required thermal comfort inside
buildings and technical building features such as thermal insula-
tion quality and occupants habits. Quantitative projections of
future energy consumption naturally depend on the key assump-
tions and models used to construct future climate scenarios.
In previous studies for the USA (Rosenthal et al., 1995; Belzer

0301-4215/$ - see front matter & 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.07.020
732 Gh.R. Roshan et al. / Energy Policy 49 (2012) 731739
et al., 1996), the UK (Pretlove and Oreszczyn, 1998) and, more
recently, for Greece (Cartalis et al., 2001), climate change was
found to have signicant implications for energy consumption in
buildings. To our knowledge, no corresponding study has, so far,
been attempted for Iran. Undoubtedly, like in many different
regions of the world, the climate change and global warming
occurring in Iran could cause the vicissitudes of energy consump-
tion in the country (Shakoor et al., 2008; Roshan et al., 2009,
2010a).
In Iran, like other rich countries of the world, some subsidies
have been introduced for energy resources consumption, whereby
people could use their national wealth at a lower cost. Such
subsidies have increased energy consumption in the country, as
the reports indicate the increase of demand for energy resources
in such countries in the recent years. The total nal energy
consumption in Iran during the years 19672006 shows an
upward trend which has reached 931.6 million from 49.5 Mbl of
petroleum. In 2005, America ranked rst in the world with a total
energy consumption of 10,525 Mbl of petroleum and Iran ranked
ninth with a consumption of 932 Mbl.
According to the statistics announced by the studies ofce of
British Petroleum Company, energy consumption in Iran is much
more than the countries which are more developed than Iran.
Based up this report, the average annual energy consumption in
Iran is calculated as 155 Mt per year, equal to 420 Ml a day, and
this country is ranked 13 in the world in this regard. However, it
should not be forgotten that the countries which have more
consumption in comparison to Iran are either developed countries
or in the way to becoming one.
Energy consumption per capita in Iran is very high, and
according to Irans Ministry of Petroleum, it is 64% more than
the world average. According to experts, about one fourth of this
energy could be saved. Wastage of energy in Iran has led not only
to direct nancial losses but to environmental contamination
also. According to a report of the International Monetary Fund,
Iran is rated as second among countries which pay energy
subsidies for 37 billion dollars. Irans energy consumption per
capita for every person is more than ve times as that of
Indonesia and twice as much as that of China, a country whose
population is 1300,000,000. On the other hand, in gas consump-
tion, Iran stands third after America and Russia. Forecasts indicate
that the gas consumption will reach 277 Bm3 in 2012. With this
consumption trend, Iran will become a big consumer in the future
and more pressure will be put on the government. For instance, in
2009, the government has allocated a 134,000 million US dollars
gas subsidy to domestic subscribers. It is only a part of the
900,000 million US dollars subsidies that the government grants
to the subscribers every year. As the population increases, fossil
fuel resources decrease, the pressure on the government for more
energy subsidies increases, and environmental pollutions also
increase. Climate changes and many other factors will necessitate
the use of environmental potentials and developing new sources
of energy in order to nd a proper solution to supply the energy
required for cooling and heating of residential places in Iran to
reduce the negative effects of energy crisis which will surely
afict the societies worldwide in the future.
Recent research works have showed that total ultimate energy
consumption in Iran was 1033.32 MBOE in 2006 and that household
and commercial sector has been the main consumer (418.47 MBOE)
and the fastest-growing sector (7.2%) (Farahmandpour et al., 2008).
In particular, about 38% of total energy that consumed in year 2001
has been used for space heating (Farhanieh and Sattari, 2006).
Therefore, Iran must try to optimize energy consumption especially
in the residential sector (Mohammadnejad et al., 2011). In this
sense, different solutions were proposed by researchers; for exam-
ple, using insulation is an alternative to avoid the energy loss and
changing heater to radiator renders energy conservation up to 50%
(Farhanieh and Sattari, 2006).
2. Materials and methods
2.1. Climate change models
To study bioclimatic conditions of the last decade, the data from
climatological stations located in 43 zones of Iran, have been used
for the purpose of forecasting and modeling temperature changes
owing to increase in greenhouse gases. In this study, to predict the
global warming effect, MAGICC and SCENGEN compound model was
used. MAGICC consists of a set of interrelated simple models. This
model uses some parameters as input in modeling process; the most
important of which is climatic sensitivity. The regional and global
SCENGEN is not only a climatic model, but it also includes results of
many GCMs, as well as a set of global perceptional data and four sets
of regional climate data (Kont et al., 2003).
Calculations for Iran have been used for four IPCC-suggested
scenarios. Iran is located between 25 and 40 degree latitude and
44 and 63.5 degree east longitude. Modeling on temperature
changes, it could be divided into 43 geographical zones (Table 1).
In the present research, 20 GCM models (Table 2) and a
scenario called P50 which is the average of SRES scenario or
emission scenarios have been used.
The most signicant input of these models is the rate of
emission of greenhouse gases in the future eras, but a nal
determination of the rate of emission of greenhouse gases in the
future eras is not possible. So different scenarios consisting of the
quality of changes in these gases in the future have been offered
which are called emission scenarios. The intergovernmental panel
on climate change or IPCC offered new series of emission
scenarios called SRES in 1988 (Arnella et al., 2004; Arnell, 2004;
Parrya et al., 2004). In Table 3, some of the specications of four
index scenarios (A1, A2, B1 and B2) in 2100 have been presented.
In this assessment, Irans temperature data in the time inter-
vals of 19611990, were chosen as the basic data and tempera-
ture changes for the years 20002005 were studied based on the
proposed scenario and the changes within the interval of the
years 19611999, so that the proper model accords with the
experimental data of temperature in the proposed years.
In order to predict and model the temperature changes due to
an increase in the greenhouse gases, we have used MAGICC/
SCENGEN software, version 5.3, which has been designed to be
consistent with the fourth report of IPCC. The software is a
coupled gas-cycle/climate model that includes the cycles of
carbon, methane, nitrogen oxide and halocarbons together with
a model for the radiative effects of aerosols. Details are given in
the User Manual, which can be viewed at and downloaded from
Web (Wigley, 2010).
After testing the best model with Pearson correlation coef-
cient, the changes in Irans temperature components were pre-
dicted in the worldwide heating bed for the future decades of
2025, 2050 and 2075. Based upon these changes, the degree day
index values were calculated and compared with those in the past
and present period.
Finally, according to the outputs, energy demand rates were
calculated in the cooling and heating parts of Irans construction
and the design of which has been provided for different periods.
2.2. Structure of MAGICC and SCENGEN model
MAGICC is a model for assessment of gas-induced climate
changes and is comprised of a set of simple interrelated models.
This model makes use of some parameters as input in the
 Gh.R. Roshan et al. / Energy Policy 49 (2012) 731739 733

Table 1
The geographical coordinates of the zones studied in MAGICC and SCENGEN suggested model.

Zone Latitude Longitude Provincial boundaries

1 37.540N 42.545E West of Turkey & north of Azerbaijan

2 37.540N 4547.5E Eastern Azerbaijan
3 37.540N 47.550E Ardebil & west of Gilan
4 37.540N 5052.5E West of the Caspian Sea, west of Gilan
5 37.540N 52.555E Northwest of Golestan
6 37.540N 5557.5E Golestan
7 37.540N 57.560E Northern Khorasan
8 37.540N 6062.5E North of Khorasan Razavi
9 3537.5N 42.545E South of western Azerbaijan & east of Iraq
10 3537.5N 4547.5E North of Kurdistan, west of Zanjan, south of eastern Azerbaijan
11 3537.5N 47.550E East of Zanjan, west of Ghazvin, north of Hamedan
12 3537.5N 5052.5E North of Esfahan, east of Arak, east of Ghazvin, Ghom, Tehran
13 3537.5N 52.555E Mazandaran, west of Semnan
14 3537.5N 5557.5E North & east of Semnan, north of Yazd
15 3537.5N 57.560E West of Khorasan Razavi
16 3537.5N 6062.5E East of Khorasan Razavi
17 3532.5N 42.545E West of Kermanshah, west of Ilam, Baghdad
18 3532.5N 4547.5E North of Khuzestan, west of Lorestan, east of Ilam, south of Kermanshah & south of Hamedan
19 3532.5N 47.550E East of Hamedan, west of Markazi, west of Ghom, north of Lorestan
20 3532.5N 5052.5E West of Esfahan
21 3532.5N 52.555E East of Esfahan
22 3532.5N 5557.5E East of Yazd
23 3532.5N 57.560E West of southern Khorasan
24 3532.5N 6062.5E East of southern Khorasan
25 32.530N 4547.5E West of Khuzestan, south of Ilam
26 32.530N 47.550E East of Khuzestan
27 32.530N 5052.5E Kohgiluyeh & Boyerahmad, Chaharmahal Bakhtiari, south of Esfahan
28 32.530N 52.555E Southeast of Esfahan, south of Yazd
29 32.530N 5557.5E West of Yazd, north & northwest of Kerman
30 32.530N 57.560E Northeast of Kerman, south of southern Khorasan
31 32.530N 6062.5E North of Sistan & Baluchestan
32 27.530N 4547.5E West of the Persian Gulf, south of Khuzestan
33 27.530N 47.550E East of Persian Gulf, east of Bushehr
34 27.530N 5052.5E Bushehr, east of Fars
35 27.530N 52.555E West of Fars
36 27.530N 5557.5E Northwest of Hormozgan, southwest of Kerman
37 27.530N 57.560E West of Kerman, east of Sistan & Baluchestan
38 27.530N 6062.5E West of Sistan & Baluchestan
39 2527.5 N 5052.5E A part of Persian Gulf Coasts, south of Bushehr
40 2527.5N 52.555E South of Fars
41 2527.5N 5557.5E West of Hormozgan
42 2527.5N 57.560E East of Hormozgan, south of Kerman, southwest of Sistan
43 2527.5N 6062.5E Southeast of Sistan Baluchestan

simulation process, the most important of which is climate Table 2

sensitivity. The fact is that this model is used for the purpose of General circulation models of the atmosphere used in SCENGEN 5.3 (Wigley,
2010).
forecasting and simulating climate parameters with regard to
these inputs for the future years and for different regions. Indeed, The country founder of the model Specialized name of SCENGEN
MAGICC is not a GCM model but it uses the data of some climate
models to simulate the behavior of GCM models for the consid- Norway BCCRBCM2
ered region. In other words, this model is composed of a gas cycle USA CCSM-30
Canada CCCMA-31
and snow melting models which allows the user to determine the France CNRM-CM3
average global temperature changes and the datum level changes Australia CSIRO-30
according to dispersion of greenhouse gases (Kont et al., 2003; Germany MPIECH-5
Roshan et al., 2010a). SCENGEN is a regional and global scenario Germany/Korea ECHO-G
China FGOALS1G
generator. This model is not only a climatic model but a simple
USA GFDLCM20
database, including results of many GCMs, as well as a set of USA GFDLCM21
global perceptional data and four sets of regional climate data. USA GISS-EH
In fact SCENGEN is simple software which allows the user to USA GISS-ER
make use of the results of MAGICC model and the general Russia INMCM-30
France IPSL-CM4
circulation models. It also paves the way for the user to recognize Japan MIROC-HI
the consequences using different presuppositions with regard to Japan MIROCMED
climate system parameters. The scenarios of this model are Japan MRI-232A
forecast from dispersion of greenhouse gases in the future, using USA NCARPCM1
UK UKHADCM3
different hypotheses in relation to human activities, policies,
UK UKHADGEM
technology applications, etc. (Roshan et al., 2010b). By this
734 Gh.R. Roshan et al. / Energy Policy 49 (2012) 731739

Table 3
SRES climatic scenario properties in 2100 as compared with those in 1990.

Scenario Specications 1990 A1 A2 B1 B2

Population (in billions) 5.252 7.1 15.1 7 10.4
Carbon dioxide concentration (ppmv) 354 680 834 547 601
Mean changes of the earths average temperature (1C) 2.5 3.1 2 2.1
(1.73.7) (2.14.4) (1.43) (1.53.1)
Universal increase at sea level (cm) 58 62 50 52
(23101) (27107) (1990) (2093)
12
Universal GDP (10 $) 21 550 243 328 235

Difference from temperature

method, 20 GCM models can be used separately or in groups. In 1.00 Temperature 60.0

Difference of precipitation
difference
the case of selecting several GCM models, the program averages 0.90 Precipitation 40.0

average in celsius
them and produces a compound model. 0.80 difference
0.70 20.0

percentage
0.60 0.0
0.50
2.3. Calculation of heating and cooling degree-days 0.40 -20.0
0.30 -40.0
Degree-day methods are simple, yet efcient and fairly reliable 0.20
-60.0
for quantifying the heating and cooling energy demands in a 0.10
0.00 -80.0
building. Estimations are accurate if the internal temperature, 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
thermal gains and building properties are relatively constant. Years
The severity of a climate can be characterized concisely in terms
of degree-days. Various denitions of degree-days are in use Fig. 1. The temperature downfall oscillations in the country from 2000 to 2005 as
(Christenson et al., 2006). In general, the need for heating and compared with the long-term mean (19601999).

cooling according to the denition is the addition or subtraction

of temperature daily means from a denite threshold in a denite
period of the year and it is expressed in terms of degree-days. The
threshold temperatures vary for different conditions and as a
general rule the range of 1928 1C is proposed for human comfort.
Different ranges have been proposed by researchers for Irans
climatic conditions among which the range of 1824 degree is
favorable (Khalili, 2004a, 2004b; Faraji et al., 2008). The denition
of heating degree-days and cooling degree-days used in this study
is taken from Iran standard (Khalili, 2004b).
In order to estimate the amount of cooling needed in an N-day
denite period, Eq. (1) was used.
X
CDD Ty2 y2 24 1
In this equation, the CDD is the required amount of cooling
and T, the daily mean temperature. The temperature threshold y2
considered for Iran is 24 1C.
In order to calculate the need of y2 to heating, Eq. (2) must be
employed.
X changes in Irans temperature during 20002005 as compared
HDD y1 T y1 18 2 with the long-term mean of 19601999, we have used the
In this equation, HDD is the need for heating on the basis of
degree-day; T and y1 have the same concept as in the previous
equation and regarding Irans conditions 18 1C has been chosen as
the temperature threshold.
The heating degree-days (HDD) can be dened in accordance
with Swiss (SIA Standard 381/3, 1982) as Eq. (3):
X
n
HDDyi , yth mk yi ye,k
k1
where yi is the internal temperature, ye,k the daily mean external
temperature, yth the threshold temperature for heating, k is the
day number in the year.
In this sense, the annual heating demand of a building Qh may
be written as Eq. (4):
Q h K tot HDDZQ s
where Ktot is the total thermal losses due to transmission and
inltrations, Qs is the internal heat sources and solar gains and Z
is an efciency to factor in the share of Qs that serves to reduce
heating demand.
The ASHRAE (2009) denition is dened by Eq. (5):
X
n
CDDytc mk ye,k ytc 5
k1
where ytc is the threshold temperature for cooling.
Finally, it is interesting to note that, if building properties are
assumed to be constant, the cooling energy demand is propor-
tional to the number of CDD.
3. Results and discussion
3.1. The calculation and interpretation of real values in countrys
temperature
In this part, in order to determine the real oscillations and
climatic data of 80 synoptical and climatological stations in the
country covering Irans range well. First of all, the long-term mean
of temperature in these stations has been calculated for the study
period of 19601999; then the temperature differences in each
year of 20002005 have been estimated as compared with this
long-term mean as we can see in Fig. 1.
Fig. 1 shows the presence of inverse behavior between the
temperature and downfall curves during the study period; we can
3
see that the more (less) the temperature the less (more) the
downfall is. These results relate to those regions of middle
latitude and tropical zones having a downfall of the cold season
because in these conditions, the more (less) the downfall is, the
less (more) the temperature will be.
Fig. 1 indicates that the highest increase in countrys tempera-
ture as compared with the mean in 19601999 is equal to 0.92 1C
in 2001 and it shows the lowest oscillation in temperature
4
increase that is equal to 40% of a degree Celsius in 2004. So, what
is obvious is that the countrys temperature has increased in this
period though this increase is more in the rst period than in the
 Gh.R. Roshan et al. / Energy Policy 49 (2012) 731739 735

second one. Downfall value has inverse oscillations with regard to use it as a simple and acceptable criterion to choose a proper
temperature so that in the rst study period this has decreased in model (Fig. 2).
comparison to the mean and increased in the later period. Unlike As shown in Fig. 2, the highest correlation coefcient between
the temperature, downfall change has more oscillations and its the temporal series of real and simulated data with r 0.89 relates
prediction is more difcult. A remarkable point is that the highest to INMCM-30 model. Therefore, it is better to use the simulated
percent of downfall increase as compared with the long-term results of INMCM-30 model in order to simulate the temperature
mean in 2004 is 50.8% which is simultaneous with the lowest components.
increase in countrys temperature and in turn the lowest percent
of downfall,  71.3%, in 2001 is simultaneous with the highest 3.3. Energy demand in buildings
increase in the countrys temperature during the study period.
3.3.1. Time scale of the past and present
3.2. The correlation of results in real and simulated data This part of the research includes the study on Iranian build-
ings need for cooling and heating energy for the three time
After the temperature increase values are simulated by each periods of past, present and future. The past time scale is related
model for 43 regions individually and for the years of 20002005, to the data of 1980s, the present time scale includes the data of
the total mean of increase in the countrys temperature has been 2005, and the future includes the time period of 2025, 2050
calculated for each model as shown in Table 4. and 2075.
With these data we can calculate the correlation coefcient According to the study conducted on the need for heating
between the real data of temperature and the simulated ones and energy for 1980s, the results indicated that January, with average
421 degree days, had the highest rate in comparison with other
months in meeting the need for heating energy, as we can see in
Fig. 3.
Table 4 From among the months of a year, in July and August there was
The simulated data of temperature for 20 models of GCM for the study period of
no need for heating energy since the weather was hot during this
20002005.
period. After these two months, it is September which stood
Periods second with regard to the need for heating energy with average
27 degree days.
GCMs 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
This rate has oscillations from 0 to 4282 degree days during a
BCCRBCM2  0.020  0.018  0.024  0.019  0.022  0.024
year for different regions of Iran, and its annual average for entire
CCCMA-31 0.030 0.043 0.056 0.051 0.058 0.066 Iran were calculated to be 1449 degree-days. In this assessment,
CCSM-30  0.040  0.048  0.054  0.049  0.062  0.064 the maximum need was, respectively in region 1 or the northern
CNRM-CM3  0.010  0.008  0.004  0.009  0.002  0.014 parts of Azerbaijan, region 10 or the north of Kurdistan, west of
CSIRO-30  0.060  0.048  0.074  0.059  0.082  0.084
ECHO-G 0.010 0.013 0.047 0.011 0.018 0.016
FGOALS1G  0.010  0.008  0.024  0.019  0.012  0.024
450 1980 2005
GFDLCM20  0.040  0.048  0.054  0.049  0.052  0.054 2075
400
GFDLCM21 0.030 0.033 0.037 0.041 0.038 0.046 2050 2025
HDD index(Cal)

350
UKHADGEM  0.020  0.028  0.034  0.029  0.042  0.034 300
GISS-EH 0.090 0.103 0.117 0.121 0.118 0.146 250
GISS-ER 0.160 0.173 0.187 0.191 0.248 0.226 200
INMCM-30  0.050  0.048  0.064  0.069  0.072  0.074 150
IPSL-CM4 0.020 0.043 0.047 0.041 0.048 0.046 100
MIROC-HI  0.040  0.038  0.044  0.039  0.042  0.054 50
MIROCMED  0.030  0.038  0.034  0.039  0.042  0.044 0
MPIECH-5 0.010 0.023 0.027 0.041 0.028 0.036
n.

b.

r.

ay

n.

l.

g.

p.

.
.

.
ov

ec
ar

ct
Ju
Ap
Ja

Fe

Ju

Au

Se
M

O
M

MRI-232A  0.060  0.078  0.074  0.089  0.092  0.084

D
NCARPCM1 0.000 0.003  0.004 0.001 0.008 0.006
UKHADCM3  0.030  0.028  0.034  0.029  0.042  0.034 Fig. 3. Calculation of the Monthly Average of HDD Index for Iran during the 5
study periods.

1.00
coefficient of correlation
Coefficient of correlation in percent

0.80

0.60

0.40

0.20
GCMs
0.00

-0.20

-0.40

-0.60

-0.80
UKHADGEM
UKHADCM3
MIROCMED
BCCRBCM2

CCCMA-31
CCSM30
CNRM-CM3

CSIRO-30
ECHO---G
FGOALS1G

GFDLCM20
GFDLCM21

GISSEH
GISSER

INMCM-30
IPSL_CM4

MIROC-HI

MPIECH-5

MRI-232A
NCARPCM1

Fig. 2. The correlation coefcient values between the real and simulated data series of temperature for the study period of 20002005.
736 Gh.R. Roshan et al. / Energy Policy 49 (2012) 731739

Zanjan and southeast of Azerbaijan, and region 3 which is Ardabil for heating energy for the year 2025, it has been concluded that
and west of Gilan. But regions 41, 43 and 40 which include the the month January with average 382 degree day has the max-
regions west of Hormozgan, southeast of Sistan and Baluchestan, imum need for heating energy in comparison with other months.
and south of Fars Province can be also mentioned. Like before, for July and August there is no need for heating
In the same time period of 1980s, the maximum requirement energy because they are hot months. But, according to the annual
for energy for cooling houses is observed in July for 214 degree average calculated for the entire Iran, 1389 degree days is
days (Fig. 4). estimated to be needed for heating houses; in comparison with
Among many months, January, February and December do not the previous periods, this rate has decreased (Fig. 3). From among
have any need for cooling energy as they are cold months. But, as different regions of the country, this rate of annual need for
the annual mean, 684 degree-days of energy is required for heating energy has oscillated from zero degree day related to
cooling houses in Iran (Fig. 5) and this rate oscillates between 0 regions such as 40, 41 and 43 to 3072 degree days related to
and 2224 degree days. The minimum need for energy for cooling region such as 3. With regard to the need for cooling energy
houses in a year is related to regions such as 3, 7 and 15 which for cooling houses, again December, January and February do not
include Ardabil, north of Khorasan, and regions of Khorasan need cooling energy, and July with a need of 222 degree day
Razavi Province, and its maximum is related to regions 33, 40, cooling energy stands rst. A comparison of these months with
32 and 43 including south of Khuzestan, south of Fars, east of the previous periods indicates that in most months of the year the
Hormozgan, south of Kerman, southwest and southeast of Sistan need for cooling energy is more, as we can see in Fig. 4.
and Baluchestan. But what is understood from the annual average is the
As a continuation, this process has been carried out for the oscillation of outputs from 0 needs in the study region 3 which
present time scale for the indicative year 2005, and the results show is Ardabil and west of Gilan to a 2032 degree-day-calorie need in
relative changes. But the monthly data reveal that it is January region 32 or west of Persian Gulf and south of Khuzestan. In this
which needed the maximum energy of 378 degree-days to provide study, regarding the increase of the need for cooling energy in
heating for houses as before. Likewise, the months June, July and most of the months, consequently its annual rate is decreased and
August do not need energy for supplying heat since they are hot its average is calculated to be 805 degree days for Iran as we can
months. The interesting point is that in January, February, March, see in Fig. 5.
June, October and December the need for energy for heating has In assessing the need for heating energy for the study period of
decreased and in April, May, September and November it has 2050, it has been concluded that it is the month January which
increased. But the result concluded from the difference of annual has been considered as the coldest month of the year with 354
data is that the need for energy for heating has an average decrease degree day need for heating energy. But the signicant point here
of 56 degree-days in a year in Iran (Fig. 3). is that the month September, except July and August which have
no need for heating energy, has become one of the months which
need no energy for heating buildings due to global warming. In
3.3.2. Future time scale this study period according to the annual average of 1218 heating
At this stage, the INMCM-30 model has been used to simulate degree days (Fig. 5), the need for heating degree day has
the values of degree day index. According to the study of the need decreased to 171 degree days as shown in Fig. 3. In this annual
average, like before, the regions 40, 41 and 42 have no need for
annual heating but it is again the region 3 which has the
350 1980 2005 maximum need for heating energy with an annual average of
2075
300 2025 2050 2844 degree days.
CDD index(Cal)

250 With regards to energy supply for cooling houses, the month
200 December with an average of 1.55 degree-days of need for energy
150 for cooling houses has the lowest need for the rst time, and the
100 month July has the maximum need of energy for cooling as
50 before. But the annual average is 982 cooling degree days for the
0 entire Iran which has increased in comparison with the last
.

.
g.
ay

.
b.

p.
r.

.
n.
n.

l.
ar

ov

ec
ct
Ap

Ju

period as we can see in Figs. 4 and 5.

Au
Fe

Se
Ju
Ja

O
M

In the simulation of degree-day index values for the year 2075,

Fig. 4. Calculation of the Monthly Average of CDD Index for Iran during 5 study
it can be concluded that the month June has no need for heating
periods.
energy consumption for the rst time, and except for the months
November and May, all the months show a decreasing trend in
heating energy consumption. In this simulation, energy consump-
HDD index(Cal) CDD index(Cal) tion in heating section has decreased by 111 degree days in
1600
Average of annual degree

comparison with the year 2050 and 342 degree days in compar-
1400 ison with the 1980s. In 2075, the oscillations of the need for
1200 energy consumption has a range from zero in regions 41, 40 and
1000 42 to 273 in region 3 as shown in Figs. 3 and 5.
day(Cal)

800 Now, regarding the simulation of the values of need for energy
600 consumption for cooling houses in the year 2075, it is concluded
that in all months of the year, without any exception, the cooling
400
energy consumption has increased in comparison with the previous
200
years, and the maximum value of this increment has been observed
0 in July with 299 degree days. The annual average of energy
1980 2005 2025 2050 2075
consumption in cooling section also, which has had an uptrend
Years
since 1980s, reaches its peak which is 1148 degree days in 2075;
Fig. 5. Calculation of the Monthly Average of CDD and HDD Indices for Iran during thus, the increase of consumption in comparison with the year 1980
5 study periods. has been 464 degree days; for details, see Figs. 4 and 5.
 Gh.R. Roshan et al. / Energy Policy 49 (2012) 731739 737

Zoning the Values of Need for CDD and HDD in the study periods
of 1980, 2005, 2025, 2050 and 2075 is manifested in Figs. 611.
Based on the ndings of this study, the design of new buildings
for these regions must consider this future outdoor mean tem-
perature to dene the wall insulation and the technical charac-
teristic of HVAC systems. Furthermore, the feasibility must be
considered to replace the actual HVAC system with passive
methods like internal coverings, thermal inertia or air changes
of indoor air (Orosa and Oliveira, 2009). In particular, this last
method is based on the traditional Iranian architecture and
represents, in combination with the other two, the most impor-
tant way to reduce future energy consumption. Thereby, more
actual sampled data that show the real behavior of indoor
ambiences as a consequence of the different building construction
characteristics must be developed to dene a better solution for
energy conservation.
To help this process, future research works must be developed to
validate present software resources like HAM-tools (Kalagasidis and
Mattsson, 2005), to improve building design and maintenance suit
climatic regions like in Iran.

4. Conclusion

This research work has showed a proper solution for providing

the energy required for cooling and heating the residential places
in Iran with regard to the energy crisis which will surely affect

Fig. 7. Zoning the Values of Need for CDD for the study periods 2025 (a) and
2050 (b).

Fig. 8. Zoning the Values of Need for CDD for the study period of 2075.

most of the societies worldwide. In this sense, results of this study

Fig. 6. Zoning the Values of Need for CDD for the study period of 1980 (a) and
2005 (b).
indicate that the maximum monthly requirement for energy for
heating in households is in January. However, with a passage of
time, there will be a decrease in the required heating energy for
most of the months. In assessing the energy required for cooling
houses, it is observed that December needs cooling energy for the
rst time. From this result it can be concluded that the countrys
738 Gh.R. Roshan et al. / Energy Policy 49 (2012) 731739
Fig. 9. Zoning the Values of Need for HDD for the study period of 1980.
Fig. 10. Zoning the Values of Need for HDD for the study periods of 2005 (a) and
2025 (b).
greatest problem in supplying energy in future is related to
household cooling and air conditioning rather than heating.
Besides, by expansion of hot seasons and limitation of cold
seasons of the year, the need for energy consumption for cooling
and air conditioning will continue. According to the processed
data gained from 1980 to 2005 periods (Fig. 6), the most cooling
energy demand is allocated to central and eastern parts of the
country, while this maximum need is shifted towards south in
Fig. 11. Zoning the Values of Need for HDD for the study periods of 2050 (a) and
2075 (b).
2025, 2050 and 2075 periods (Figs. 7 and 8). The reason may be
justied by the enhanced rate of Persian Gulf evaporation due to
global warming within next decades. The excess water vapor would
be entrapped by the high pressures within the intertropical con-
vergence zone (ITCZ) on northern coasts of ROPME Sea area.
Considering water vapor as a greenhouse gas, the gradual warming
of the area in comparison with other ones would be conrmed.
Regarding heating energy demand, the maximal values would be
observed in northwestern, northeastern and western parts through
next decades (Figs. 10 and 11). Thermal high pressures coming from
Siberia and dynamic anticyclones from Scandinavia may play the
key role in gradual temperature drop and simultaneously heating
energy demand increase in mentioned areas.
Finally, to solve this future problem, the feasibility to replace
the actual HVAC system with passive methods based in the
traditional Iranian architecture and a better building design based
on new software resources must be considered in future research
works.
Acknowledgements
The authors highly appreciate the three anonymous reviewers
who provided excellent suggestions for the revision of the manu-
script. Also, the provision of data and statistics by Iran Meteor-
ological Organization (IRIMO) is acknowledged.
 Gh.R. Roshan et al. / Energy Policy 49 (2012) 731739
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