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02February2017 Week 04
Mexicos gas needs
Mexicos rising demand for US LNG means that it must tread carefully in
trade talks with the US
Strong growth forecasts
BPs Energy Outlook forecasts strong LNG supply growth between 2015 and
2035, led by the US and Australia
Australian surge
Australias massive drive to invest in LNG infrastructure finally appears to be
paying off with a big surge in exports of the fuel in recent months
Japanese decline
Japans LNG imports declined 2% in 2016, the second year in a row
GLNG GLNG
The Official Meeting Place for the Iranian LNG & Gas Industry
H.E. Dr Amir Hossein H.E. Dr. Gholamreza H.E. Araqhi Hamid Reza Mr. Hamid Bovard Dr. Ali Vakili
Zamaninia Manouchehri Deputy Petroleum Minister & Managing Director Managing Director
Deputy Minister for Trade and Vice President, Engineering Managing Director Iranian Offshore Oil Company Iran Fuel Conservation Company
International Affairs and Development NIGC (IOOC) (IFCO)
Ministry of Petroleum NIOC
David Carroll Ali Amirani Mostafa Sharif Eric Festa Hans Nijkamp
President 2015-2018 Acting Head of the Gas Export General Manager Market Research Managing Director Vice President - Iran
International Gas Union Division & Economic Appraisal TOTAL Exploration & Production Shell
NIOC NIOCs Gas Export Division Iran
Jiang Mingjun Kunio Nohata Ian Nash Victor Alessandrini Rajesh Agarwal
Vice President Executive Director Managing Director Business Development Manager Senior Vice President, Project
CNPC Middle East Tokyo Gas Co., Ltd. Peritus International GTT Advisory & Structured Finance, Senior
and Project Director Vice President, Project Advisory &
South Asia Gas Enterprise Pvt. Ltd. Structured Finance
(SAGE) SBI Capital Markets
SPONSORS INCLUDE
iranlngandgas.com
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Global LNG Monitor
COMMENTARY
Mexicos gas needs give Trump upper hand in row with Mexico 4
LNG prices remain healthy as US hints at a pro-oil and gas policy 6
FORECASTS
BP forecasts strong growth for LNG 8
AFRICA
Skikda LNG restarts after technical problems 8
Cameroon partner still in FLNG scheme, says Golar LNG 9
AMERICAS
Eagle LNG files with FERC 9
AUSTRALASIA
Australian LNG exports reach record high 10
ASIA
Japans LNG imports tumble in 2016 10
Worlds first barge-based FSRU undocks 11
Indonesia to limit new LNG importers to PLN, IPPs 11
Tokyo Gas sees more change in Japanese LNG sector 12
EUROPE
Closure threat for European gas storage facilities 12
GRTgaz consolidates position in French gas market 13
Croatia postpones LNG terminal until 2019 14
MIDDLE EAST
Bahrains NOGA closes financing for LNG Terminal 14
NEWS IN BRIEF 15
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that 4% figure will likely be higher affecting both gas relationship between the US and Mexico Mexicos Manzanillo
pipeline gas exports and also LNG exports. could give the US an upper hand. LNG import terminal
Mexico also has pipeline capacity expansions This all boils down to exactly how protec-
under way that will utilise that gas. In 2015, Mex- tionist Trump decides to be, said Rob Carnell,
icos energy ministry unveiled a five-year plan to chief international economist at ING in London.
expand the countrys natural gas pipeline net- My guess is this will be targeted, not blan-
work significantly to accommodate higher levels ket, and any retaliation is then down to Mexico,
of natural gas imports from the US. and I imagine they would rather have the gas at
By 2020, the US will have five LNG projects in a decent price than deter it by putting up tariffs.
operation Sabine Pass, Corpus Christi, Cam- Not only does Mexico need cheap gas, it Not only does
eron, Freeport and Cove Point for a total lique-
faction capacity of 64.7 million tonnes per year.
also needs US markets for much of its crude oil
production.
Mexico need
This would make it the worlds third largest LNG In 2015, the US represented 60% of Mexican cheap gas, it
exporter behind Australia and Qatar. crude exports, before dropping to 48% last year,
Owing to the relative cheapness of US LNG according to energy data provider ClipperData. also needs US
and its proximity to Mexican LNG import facil- Around 575,000 bpd of Mexican crude was
ities, US LNG will likely make up the bulk of imported to the US last year, about 97% of it markets for much
Mexicos LNG future imports.
Indeed, Amsterdam-based ING Groep
being heavy crude.
Needless to say, a 20% tariff on Mexican
of its crude oil
and New York-based energy consultancy Pira imported goods to the US would also have a neg- production
Energy Group said that gas exports, seen as sup- ative impact on Mexicos beleaguered oil and gas
porting jobs in the US while handing Mexico sector, while the US could replace much of these
cheap fuel, could end up being one trade that crude imports with other suppliers, including
bucks the political maelstrom. nearby heavy Canadian crude. This is another
dynamic that gives Trump the upper hand in
Trump holds the upper hand any kind of disagreement with his Mexican
Meanwhile, it seems that preserving this integral counterpart.v
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Dunkirk LNG and other features such as sharply prices came to a halt in late January, and the PROJECTION
higher imports at Klaipeda LNG in the Baltic March contract on CME lost some ground in FOR EEX
Sea all add to a sense of brisk demand across the recent days. EGIX
continent. This is largely because of seasonal factors Week of
Hence gas prices should remain somewhat and confidence in supply, and these features will February 2-February 8
firm over the coming month, as this demand has most likely drag the CME March contract down 19.50-20.50 euros
a basis in the real economy. in February. (US$21-22.1) per MWh
On the Leipzig-based European Energy But while most market observers are confi-
Exchange (EEX), the EGIX index for January dent of stability of supply of LNG in the years
rose steadily from 18.8 euros (US$20.27) per ahead, especially from the US and Australia,
MWh on January 10 to 19.48 euros (US$21) on a modest note of concern was sounded over
January 25, closing at 21.62 euros (US$23.3) on the progress of Australias Ichthys LNG export
January 30. project.
Moving forward, the surge in European gas A power supplier to the project pulled out
prices in January was driven by an unusual com- of its construction agreement with Ichthys, and
bination of circumstances, elements of which while the project still looks secure, there may be
will subside in February. delays and higher costs attached to this project.
Moderation of temperatures is already occur- The development has reminded the market
ring and efforts to meet gas demand from diverse that the wave of new LNG export projects may
sources continue. not necessarily proceed entirely free of the occa-
Qatar, Norway, Nigeria and Peru are all eager sional obstacle.
to sell LNG into Europe. Moving forward, Chinese demand for gas
So while there has been a shortage of sorts will undoubtedly rise in 2017.
owing to maintenance at Skikda, there is no Its new strategy to promote domestic use of
serious LNG supply crunch and the market gas through the encouragement of new gas pipe-
has responded to the situation in a fully effective line and storage facilities, as well as development
manner. of gas contracts on a new trading exchange, will
Prices look likely to stabilise in February. encourage confidence among LNG importers to
expect a higher need for imported cargoes.
Asian market The extent to which domestic Chinese gas
LNG prices in Asia remained stable during early production can meet rising gas demand is the
January, with the CME JKM LNG futures price next big question.
for March 2017 trading around the US$8 per China has relaxed rules for inward invest-
mmBtu mark. ment of its shale gas resources, in a bid to encour-
This is well up on prices seen in October and age overseas groups to take part in the industry.
November, and reflects a general recovery of But even allowing for this, given rising under-
LNG demand in the region, particularly from lying demand for gas and a switch away from
China. coal to gas from existing end-users, the impres-
Additionally, there was rising demand from sion is that China is still anticipating higher LNG
new importers such as Pakistan, which con- imports in the years ahead.
cluded new term agreements in January. Overall Asian demand is recovering, driven
The rise in coal prices in Q4 2016 also placed by Chinese demand growth and demand from
coal at a competitive disadvantage against gas new importers, such as Pakistan.
and LNG, and this probably sparked a recovery Japan may also see some disadvantage from
of demand for gas and LNG in power and indus- higher coal prices, if they continue, and reverse
trial sectors. its declining LNG import position in the months
However, the upward trend in Asian LNG ahead.v
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AMERICAS
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ASIA
EUROPE
MIDDLE EAST
AFRICA fields. Lower global oil prices since mid- proponent, according to The Globe and Mail.
2014 have also slowed development. Algeria, Environmentalists argue that despite
Algeria top gas supplier to competing with US LNG production and
others, is boosting output to defend its market
this measure, the project is inconsistent
with Canadas climate commitments. First
Spain in 2016, eyes more EU share in Europe. Most of Sonatrachs current
long-term gas contracts with European
Nations and experts warn that the terminal
would likely harm the salmon population.
exports customers begin expiring in 2019 and 2020.
REUTERS, January 27, 2017
Jonathan Moore, associate professor at Simon
Fraser Universitys School of Resource and
Algeria expects to increase exports of natural Environmental Management and department
gas in 2017 as it looks to build on its top spot of biological sciences, and his graduate
in sales to Spain last year and strong sales to AMERICAS students conducted collaborative research
Italy and Portugal, a source at state energy with First Nations fisheries programs.
firm Sonatrach said. Gas exports are expected
to grow to 57 bcm after sales of 54 bcm last Canadian indigenous THE PEAK (CANADA), January 30, 2017
Hindustan LNG to build new reduce the basic customs duty on LNG from
5% to 2.5%, he said presenting the budget for Excelerate Energy to install
terminal 2017-18.
The move will result in cheaper import second FSRU in Port Qasim,
AG&P (Atlantic, Gulf and Pacific) of the
Philippines, and Hindustan (India) LNG have
of fuel, which makes up for roughly 40% of
the gas consumed in the country, resulting Pakistan
signed a memorandum of understanding in a lower cost of power generation, urea Following negotiations with the consortium
(MoU) to supply tolled gas to power stations and petrochemical production. Oil Minister of Engro, Fatima, and Shell over the last few
in the East Godavari region of Andhra Dharmendra Pradhan said the move is in line months, Texas-headquartered Excelerate
Pradesh, on Indias southeast coast. Under the with the vision of the government to make Energy is helping the consortium deliver a
agreement, AG&P will provide a solution to India a gas-based economy by cutting reliance proposed floating LNG terminal and second
deliver re-gasified LNG via a new LNG import on polluting liquid fuels and increasing use of FSRU to the Pakistan market. The fast track
terminal AG&P will design and build at the cleaner fuel. floating storage regasification unit (FSRU)
port in Andhra Pradesh, Kallanish Energy Essar Oil managing director and CEO project will supply much-needed natural
reports. Andhra Pradesh is the ideal place for Lalit Kumar Gupta said: The reduction in gas to Pakistan to help mitigate the supply
developing an LNG import facility to serve the LNG duty is welcome as it will reduce the shortfalls the country is currently facing.
Wood Mackenzie analysis but it said earlier market, Senex said. ferry. The LNG supply system consists of a
this week after the collapse of a sub-contract EIG has also committed to provide up 150-cubic-metre vacuum-insulated storage
for a power plant at the onshore Ichthys site to US$300 million for Senexs Western tank, with auxiliary equipment, including an
at Darwin that it was still targeting start-up in Surat gas project in Queensland on terms LNG vaporiser, pressure build-up unit, bunker
the September quarter this year. The company, yet to be agreed. The Western Surat Gas station and heat exchanger.
partly owned by the Japanese government, Project is in prime position to supply gas The system, which is scheduled for delivery
also has a stake in Prelude. into the structurally short east coast gas in November 2017, will supply gas to the
AUSTRALIAN FINANCIAL REVIEW (AUSTRALIA), market, EIG chief executive Blair Thomas ferrys three dual-fuel propulsion engines.
January 27, 2017 said in a statement, adding that now was the The vessel will be the first of its kind with
opportune time to develop Senexs assets. LNG propulsion. The ferry, which will be
Commissioning of final EIG has made a number of investments
in Australian coal seam gas over the past two
owned by Caronte & Tourist, will primarily
operate on the strait of Messina between Villa
Gorgon LNG train under way decades, including backing Tipperary Corp.,
which was taken over by Santos in 2005. It
San Giovanni and the city of Messina.
HYDROCARBON ENGINEERING, January 31,
The first two processing facilities at the also backed Arrow Energy, whose Australian 2017
Gorgon LNG project are operating near assets were bought by Shell and PetroChina
capacity and commissioning of the final
train is under way, with production expected
for A$3.4 billion in 2010. EIG already owns
about 2.7% of Senex and agreed to buy about Baltic regional LNG terminal
early in the second quarter, according to
Chevron chief executive John Watson, the
A$46 million in new shares, which would give
it a 12% stake in Senex following the capital should be built at Muuga
West Australian reported. Watson told raising. Muuga continues to be the most suitable
analysts at the weekend that after a difficult REUTERS, February 1, 2017 location for the regional terminal for LNG,
2016 Chevron saw a great year for production the fuel transit company Vopak EOS said.
from their terrific Gorgon and Wheatstone When the governments of the Baltic countries
projects, as the company spends US$2 billion EUROPE and Finland start again to look for a new
(A$2.6 billion) more on construction. location for the regional LNG terminal that
The only remaining thing to do is to
bring on the Gorgon offshore field, weve been CMA CGM, Total to lower is necessary for ensuring the regions energy
security, the Tallinn LNG terminal to be built
running on the Jansz field, Watson said of
the two giant gas sources underpinning the shipping emissions in Muuga harbour has several advantages,
Vopak, which has been leading the Muuga
US$54-billion project. Gorgon shipped its Container shipping group CMA CGM project, said.
first LNG cargo in March but the first train has signed an agreement with Total under Vopak EOS finds that it makes sense that
had many shut downs throughout the year. which the oil and gas major will supply the Baltic countries are ready to evaluate the
Watson said that lessons learnt from train one lower emission fuels in line with stricter situation on the level of governments and
allowed train two to achieve more than 90% environmental regulations in the shipping think what location and solution would be
capacity within a week of its October start up. sector. Under a three-year memorandum of the best for the regional terminal. Just as
THE WEST AUSTRALIAN (AUSTRALIA), January understanding, Total will become a multi- Prime Minister [Juri] Ratas said yesterday, the
30, 2017 fuel supplier to CMA CGM, providing fuel solution that is the most sensible economically
oil with 0.5% sulphur content and LNG, the and the most long-term should be identified
Senex lines up US partner to French companies said.
The United Nations shipping agency last
when it comes to the regional LNG terminal,
Vopak EOS CEO Arnout Lugtmeijer
fund gas project year set global regulations to cut the amount
of sulphur emissions from vessels to 0.5% of
said. Lithuanian Prime Minister Saulius
Skvernelis said at a meeting of Baltic heads of
Senex Energy has lined up private equity firm fuel content as of 2020 compared with 3.5% government in Tallinn that in his opinion the
EIG Global Energy Partners to provide up currently. Total would also supply fuel with LNG terminal in Klaipeda, Lithuania, meets
to US$300 million to back a coal seam gas 3.5% sulphur content to CMA CGM for ships the needs of the whole region. Estonian Prime
project in Australia, which could help ease equipped with exhaust gas cleaning systems, Minister Juri Ratas meanwhile said after the
a pending gas shortage in the countrys east. or scrubbers, the companies said. press conference that things are not certain
Australias eastern states face a gas crunch Privately owned CMA CGM, the worlds yet.
from 2018 as demand is set to triple to feed third-largest container line, also signed a MoU THE BALTIC COURSE (LATVIA), February 1,
LNG exports, while supply growth has been with French energy group Engie last year to 2017
curbed by states opposed to some onshore develop LNG for ships
drilling. REUTERS, February 1, 2017
Senex said it had raised A$55 million MIDDLE EAST
(US$41.67 million) in a share sale to funds
managed by EIG and other institutional MAN Cryo to deliver LNG NIOC in talks to revive LNG
investors at 31.5 cents per share, and was
seeking to raise a further A$40 million fuel system projects
from shareholders. Funds raised will help MAN Diesel & Turbos marine LNG fuel-
the company advance its Western Surat gas gas-system manufacturer, MAN Cryo, has In line with policies to expand liquefied
project in Queensland, boost oil and gas announced that it has signed a contract with natural gas exports, negotiations are
output in the Cooper Basin and look for Sefine Shipyard to deliver a marine LNG underway with European and Asian gas giants
opportunities to deliver gas into the east coast fuel-gas supply system (FGSS) to an Italian to restart incomplete LNG projects, deputy
for engineering and development affairs at having also affected the market, LNG spot into use in Izmirs Aliaga district. The EPDK
the National Iranian Oil Company said. Iran prices are hovering around US$7 per million decided to establish LNG stations following
should turn to LNG exports as shipment Btu, roughly half the peak of over US$15 in a regulatory amendment. Particularly in
of liquefied gas is less risky compared to 2014. trucks and buses, the use of LNG, which is the
piped exports and is more cost-effective for With annual production reaching 41 application area, is being promoted to reduce
long-distance consignments, Gholamreza million tonnes, Qatargas is the worlds biggest carbon dioxide emissions and encourage
Manouchehri was quoted as saying by IRNA. LNG producer, followed by RasGas, which environmentally friendly transportation.
According to the official, Russia, France, turns out 36 million tonnes. To say the new In line with the board decision taken by
Romania, Lithuania and China have already company will have a formidable global the EPDK, the natural gas market licence
shown interest in the LNG projects. footprint would be putting it mildly. Late last regulation will be amended. Wholesale
Asked about the countrys largest LNG year, Qatar Petroleum said it wanted to form licence holders with LNG stations will be
project, known as Iran LNG, he said that the a united front in the international market. able to carry out the sale of LNG for use
plan has made a 60% progress with US$1.85 The merged company will inherit the name as fuel in road vehicles at the facilities they
billion in investment before international Qatargas. establish at a certain addresses. In this way,
sanctions were imposed. Talks are underway There is little reason to think the only licence holders will be able to sell LNG at
to complete it in two years at a total cost of headwinds will die down anytime soon. The the facilities that are subject to their licences.
US$3-4 billion. Manouchehri believes that European economy remains sluggish, while Other wholesale companies selling natural gas
Iran has the potential to break into the global Chinas slowdown is limiting its thirst for throughout the country are obliged to take
LNG market, despite years of stalemate energy. These and other factors mean demand separate licences if they want to sell LNG used
in such projects and a significant gap in is unlikely to grow as steadily as it once did. as fuel for road vehicles.
production compared to rival producers in The emergence of Australia and the US as The LNG, which is a field of application
the region. major LNG exporters has also changed the primarily in vehicles such as trucks and
Manouchehri added that establishing game. Australia, in particular, is expected buses, is not used for small vehicles since
small-scale and floating LNG (FLNG) units to soon overtake Qatar as the worlds No. 1 it is not suitable for storage. With the new
with 10 mtpa of production capacity is exporter of the fuel. regulation, the use of natural gas will be
another plausible scenario. An FLNG facility Other countries, including Russia extended and the emission of carbon dioxide
is a seaborne structure that would produce, and Indonesia, are also expanding their will be reduced to promote environmentally
liquefy, store and transfer LNG at sea before production facilities. Qatar, with its friendly transportation. Turkeys first floating
carriers ship it directly to markets. annual production capacity of 77 million liquefied natural gas unit under Etki Liman
FINANCIAL TRIBUNE (IRAN), January 30, 2017 tonnes, has maintained a strong position Isletmeleri Dogal Gaz Ithalat ve Ticaret AS
thanks to long-term supply contracts with (Etki Port Operations Natural Gas Import
Qatar Petroleum bows to overseas customers. But with key contracts
approaching expiry, the outlook is growing
and Trade, Inc.) with a total investment of 330
million Turkish lira (US$86.15 million), was
changing times with merger murky.
NIKKEI ASIAN REVIEW (JAPAN), February 2,
completed in just six months.
DAILY SABAH (TURKEY), January 30, 2017
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