y
icant changes. Their remarkable relation with overwhelming majority of examined cases, can
l
strong earthquakes occurrence was formulated be considered as prognostic anomalies and w is the length of the smoothing window;
on
as a qualitative character precursory seismici because of their remarkable regularity can be n(tw) is the number of earthquakes in the
ty pattern, which were interpreted in terms of considered as a qualitative precursory seismic smoothing window time interval.
a strong earthquakes occurrence preparation ity pattern. Distinct time intervals of these Given that the number of earthquakes in
e
phases. The main characteristic of this pattern prognostic anomalies were interpreted by time is described by a Poisson distribution, the
is that permits the identification of two period
of low and high probability for an earthquake
occurrence, suggesting its utility in the cur
us
Popandopoulos and Baskoutas15 in the term of
the phases of the phenomelogical Consoli 
dation Model of the earthquake preparation
mean square error of the logarithm of the
number N of earthquakes, is given by the rela
tion: lgN = 0.4343/ N.
al
rent seismic hazard assessment, by the contin bvalue of the frequency of the magnitude
process, proposed by Dobrovolsky.16
uous monitoring of the temporal variation of distribution relation, were calculated by means
Given that the geodynamic regime in the
ci
the seismic parameters in a given area. This of the maximum likelihood17 as:
Hellenic arc and trench system controls the
paper investigates the qualitative and quanti
er
20002008. (2)
before all the strong earthquakes, with magni
tudes M>6.0 occurred in Greek territory in the
co
where:
on
and several types of patterns preceding large FastBEE algorithm magnitude Ms > Mmin;
earthquakes have been reported in the litera Mmin is the minimum magnitude of the cata
ture. The majority of these precursory patterns The seismicity parameters, calculated with logue completeness;
were based on the analysis of the number of the FastBEE algorithm are the number N of Nmin+i is the number of earthquakes in the
earthquakes and the quantitative and qualita earthquakes per unit time, bvalue and seismic ith magnitude;
tive magnitude distribution in space and time energy released. n = 1 + (Mmax Mmin) / M is the number of the
worldwide.18 In Greek territory Papadimitriou The number N of earthquakes in the Fast increment =0.20.
and Papazachos9 have reported the evidence of BEE algorithm is expressed as: The standard error of the bvalue estimates
precursory doughnut patterns in the Ionian is obtained by means of the relation: b(t) =
Islands, while Papadopoulos10 and collabora b(t)/ N(t)
tors propose a precursory seismicity pattern, in (1) Finally, the seismic energy released, per
the north Aegean Sea, based on the spatial dis unit of time, is expressed in the form logE2/3 as:
tribution clustering of strong earthquake.
Kanamori11 has pointed out that although where:
the nature of the precursory pattern varies i is the number of earthquakes, with magni (3)
from event to event, a common physical mech tude Ms > Mmin;
anism may be responsible which details are Mmin is the minimum magnitude of the cata where:
probably controlled by the tectonic environ logue completeness; t is the time in months;
ment and the heterogeneity of the medium. t is the time in months; n(tw) is the number of earthquakes in the
y
the purposes of the study, taking also into than the half of the smoothing window to pass The temporal variation of the parameter
l
on
account the dimension of the examined seis without distortion. The new refiltered esti logN, shows, in the majority of the cases a
mogenic source. Based on the experience from mates, this time are assigned at the center of clear decreasing phase toward to the relative
previous retrospectively analyzed cases a rec the filtered window. The final output includes mean value, in the examined time interval and
e
tangular area with size ranging from 80 to 120 the temporal variation of all three examined bellow to the confidence level of 70%, reaching
km can fit adequately the purposes present seismic parameters, which each one appears as to a relative minimum. Usually the relative
study. Consequently the monthly arrays for all
three examined parameters, using the follow
us
a complex of two superposed curves. The first
thin violet curve represents the smoothed time
mean values, especially when the examined
time interval is long enough, some how repre
series and the second bolder red line the filtered sent the background (normal) seismicity of a
al
ing relations:
one. The standard errors for the bvalue and the given region and the previously decreased
ci
confidence limit 1 of the parameters logN and behavior denote kind of quiescence period.
(4) logE2/3 can be seen also, as lines parallel to their This parameter usually reflects the fluctuation
er
mean values in the examined time period. of the number of earthquakes despite the pres
m
m
 co
on
N
ent or the absence of a strong earthquake. In time evolution of the first stage the probability tude threshold, although arbitrary, represents
case of strong earthquake occurrence the for a strong earthquake occurrence is very low, according to Papazachos and Papazachou,18
influence of its aftershock activity can add contrary with the beginning of the second stage the lower magnitude of a destructive earth
information of the evaluation of the two other the probability increases signalizing thus an quake with a return period of about one year.
considered seismic parameters. In all exam alarm period. As the temporal anomaly is The seismic data set used for each case, was
ined cases, the preceded smaller magnitude approaching to its end the probability of occur taken from the Earthquake Catalogue of the
events have not aftershock activity, in order to rence became higher (dashed line in Figure 1). Geodynamic Institute of the National
attribute the observed prognostic anomalies, Among the three examined seismic parameters Observatory of Athens (GINOA), Greece and
in such kind of activity. Moreover it was found it was also found that bvalue and the seismic they are homogeneous and complete for events
that the use of a declustered, for aftershocks, energy releases in the form logE2/3 are more with M3.5 after 2000.3 Table 1 reports the list
earthquake catalogue doesnt change the qual informative in respect to the parameter logN, of the examined strong earthquakes and their
itative character of the observed precursory although this last can add information when respective catalogue parameter. In the same
seismicity pattern. Parameter bvalue instead anomalous temporal variation appears in the table, the magnitudes taken for the U.S.
shows at the beginning an increasing trend seismicity of the region. Nonetheless parameter Geological Survey/National Earthquake
until it reaches a relative maximum. After that
logE2/3 seems to describe much better the Information Center (USGS/NEIC) Global
this parameter starts to decreases constantly
observed temporal variation of the seismicity Hypocenters Data Base System have been also
toward to the relative mean value and even
due to the temporal changes of the stress field reported, for a comparison. Figure 2 shows the
lower. Usually the strong earthquake occur
influence, since this situation can be expressed epicenters of these strong earthquakes as
rence coincides within this time interval and
mostly at its later stage. Finally the fluctuation better in the ambit of relatively greater size numbered circles according to the serial num
of the parameters logE2/3, in similarity with earthquake magnitudes i.e. greater than 3.53.8 bers of Table 1 and with sizes proportional to
those of smaller size. their magnitude. The Skyros 2001, July 26,
y
parameter logN and contrary to the bvalue
Ms=5.8 earthquake, although its smaller size
l
behavior, is characterized by a gradual
on
decrease toward to the relative mean value and was also included in this study because it
even lower to the confidence limit. The inver belongs to a cluster of eight (8) strong events,
sion of this trend to toward to the mean value, Data having epicenters very close to Greek capital
e
signalize the impending strong earthquake Athens (Table 2), which have been occurred
occurrence.
It was observed that the temporal evolution of
the foresaid prognostic anomaly could be divid
us
In this analysis were investigated all shallow
strong earthquakes, with magnitude Ms6.0,
that occurred in Greek territory in the time
within 14 h, denoting thus a remarkable strong
earthquakes activity. Moreover its main shock
magnitude is reported as 6.5 according to NEIC
al
ed in two distinct temporal stages. During the period 20002008. The choice of this magni Data Base.
ci
Table 1. Earthquakes catalogue parameters with magnitude MS6.0, in the time period 20002008.
er
Table 2. List of the Skyros, July 26, 2001 earthquake aftershocks, with magnitude MS5.0.
s/n Date Origin time Latitude Longitude Depth Magnitude*
(UTC) (degree) (degree) (km)
1 2001 Jul 26 00:21 39.06 24.24 10 5.8
2 2001 Jul 26 00:34 39.04 24.35 18 5.3
3 2001 Jul 26 02:01 39.10 24.31 21 5.0
4 2001 Jul 26 02:06 38.96 24.45 23 5.2
5 2001 Jul 26 02:09 38.92 24.52 24 5.3
6 2001 Jul 26 02:40 38.97 24.57 5 5.1
7 2001 Jul 26 04:53 39.06 24.38 22 5.1
8 2001 Jul 26 14:24 39.11 24.27 5 5.1
*Parameters were taken from the catalog of Geodynamic Institute of National Observatory of Athens.
y
occurrence of the main shock. Simultaneously Ms=5.8 earthquake, with the respective equa 4528 and range between a minimum of 17 to
l
on
the parameters bvalue and logE2/3, starts to tion and Rsquared value. The regression a maximum 73 months. Figure 6 shows the
increases and decreases respectively going equation and the respective Rsquared value correlation between them is expressed in
through the first stage, of the low probability follow as: terms of a linear equation of the form:
e
for an earthquake occurrence.
After one year (middle of the year 1999) y = 1 06x2 0.089x + 16 (5) TDur = 22.96Ms 109.7 (8)
us
al
ci
er
m
m
 co
on
N
Figure 3. Temporal variation of the seismic parameters logN[t], Figure 5. The shapes and the durations of the seismic parameter
bvalue and logE2/3, with their respective standard errors, for the logE2/3 prognostic anomalies for each examined strong earth
Skyros 2001 July 26, Ms=5.8 strong earthquake. The numbered quake and their respective polynomial fitting.
arrow perpendicular to the time axis denotes the earthquake ori
gin time.
Figure 4. Smoothed temporal variation estimates of logE2/3, of the Figure 6. The dependence between magnitude of the examined
prognostic anomaly for the Skyros 2001 July 26, Ms=5.8 earth strong earthquakes and total duration of the prognostic anomaly
quake and the respective polynomial fitting line (red line). measured in the parameter logE2/3.
Table 3. The duration of the prognostic anomalies, in the parameter logE2/3 temporal variation and the magnitudes of the examined
cases.
s/n Case of earthquake Prognostic anomaly duration (months) Equation R2
1 Skyros 2001 38 y = 106x2 0.09x + 16 0.67
2 Leukada 2003 30 y = 206x2 0.17x + 32 0.78
3 Cesme 2005 17 y = 907x2 0.069x + 13 0.80
4 Zante 2005 33 y = 207x2 0.016x + 32 0.42
5 Kephalonia 2007 56 y = 807x2 0.06x + 13 0.89
6 S Messiniakos 2008 22 y = 207x2 0.02x + 32 0.70
7 Rodos 2008 73 y = 207x2 0.02x + 32 0.70
8 Achaia Elia 2008 52 y = 206x2 0.16x + 31 0.90
9 Evia 2008 21 y = 407x2 0.03x + 68 0.93
y
The temporal variation analysis of a set of 3. Smirnov VB, Baskoutas I, Zavyalov AD, et review. Washington, DC: American
al. Spacetime magnitude cutoff evolution Geophysical Union; 1981. pp 119.
l
three seismicity parameters, using the
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FastBEE algorithm, was performed before all of Greece Geodynamic Institude of 12. Papadopoulos G, Baskoutas I. New tool for
strong earthquakes in the time period 2000 National Observatory of Athens earth the temporal variation analysis of seismic
2008. In all examined cases was found that quake catalogue for 19642003. Proc. XXIX parameters. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci
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their origin timef falls within the time course General Assembly of the ESC; Potzdam; 2009;9:85964.
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appearance of the preceding relative minimum
2004.
us
4. Matthews MV, Reasenberg PA. Statistical
methods for investigating quiescence and
13. Baskoutas I, Papadopoulos G, Panopoulou
G. Long temporal variation of seismic
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of the temporal variation logE2/3 curve, accord other temporal seismicity patterns. cation in Greece. Bull Geol Soc Greece
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