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Research in Geophysics 2014; volume 4:4899

Precursory seismicity pattern Papadopoulos and Baskoutas12 have intro-


duced the new FastBEE algorithm for the seis- Correspondence: Ioannis Baskoutas, Institute of
before strong earthquakes mic hazard assessment, based on the hypothe- Geodynamics, National Observatory of Athens,
in Greece sis that temporal changes of the seismicity P.O. Box 200 48, 118 10, Thissio, Athens, Greece.
reflects the influence of the previously men- Tel. +30.210.3490174 - Fax: +30.210.3490180.
E-mail: i.basko@noa.gr
Ioannis Baskoutas,1 tioned factors on the strong earthquakes
George Anatoli Popandopoulos2 preparatory process, therefore the analysis of Key words: seismic energy, b-value, temporal vari-
1
Institute of Geodynamics, National the temporal variation of the seismicity can ation of seismicity, precursory seismicity pattern.
reveal such influence. In this sense the respec-
Observatory of Athens; 2Earthquake
tive FastBEE analysis tool was designed to Received for publication: 31 May 2013.
Planning and Protection Organization, Revision received: 11 September 2013.
obtain temporal variation curves of some basic
Seismotectonic Division, Athens, Greece Accepted for publication: 16 January 2014.
seismicity parameters, which acts as seismic
precursors, by the elaboration of common
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons
earthquake catalogue data. Attribution NonCommercial 3.0 License (CC BY-
The retrospective application of this algo- NC 3.0).
Abstract rithm13-15 has shown that the obtained tempo- Copyright I. Baskoutas and G.A. Popandopoulos,
ral variation series, over a long time interval, 2013
The temporal variation of seismicity, based present significant changes temporal before Licensee PAGEPress, Italy
on the retrospective analyses of three seismic strong earthquakes. These changes, because Research in Geophysics 2014; 4:4899
parameters i.e., number of earthquakes, b- of their characteristic shapes and their rela- doi:10.4081/rg.2014.4899
value and energy released, have shown signif- tion to strong earthquake occurrence in the

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icant changes. Their remarkable relation with overwhelming majority of examined cases, can

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strong earthquakes occurrence was formulated be considered as prognostic anomalies and w is the length of the smoothing window;

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as a qualitative character precursory seismici- because of their remarkable regularity can be n(t-w) is the number of earthquakes in the
ty pattern, which were interpreted in terms of considered as a qualitative precursory seismic- smoothing window time interval.
a strong earthquakes occurrence preparation ity pattern. Distinct time intervals of these Given that the number of earthquakes in

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phases. The main characteristic of this pattern prognostic anomalies were interpreted by time is described by a Poisson distribution, the
is that permits the identification of two period
of low and high probability for an earthquake
occurrence, suggesting its utility in the cur-
us
Popandopoulos and Baskoutas15 in the term of
the phases of the phenomelogical Consoli -
dation Model of the earthquake preparation
mean square error of the logarithm of the
number N of earthquakes, is given by the rela-
tion: lgN = 0.4343/ N.
al
rent seismic hazard assessment, by the contin- b-value of the frequency of the magnitude
process, proposed by Dobrovolsky.16
uous monitoring of the temporal variation of distribution relation, were calculated by means
Given that the geodynamic regime in the
ci

the seismic parameters in a given area. This of the maximum likelihood17 as:
Hellenic arc and trench system controls the
paper investigates the qualitative and quanti-
er

physical process of strong earthquakes occur-


tative characteristics of the proposed precurso-
rence, this paper examine the qualitative and
ry seismicity pattern, before al strong earth-
m

some quantitative characteristics of the above


quakes occurrence in Greece the time period
mentioned seismicity precursory pattern,
m

2000-2008. (2)
before all the strong earthquakes, with magni-
tudes M>6.0 occurred in Greek territory in the
co

time period 2000 to 2008.


Introduction
-

where:
on

Precursory seismicity changes have attract- t is the time in months;


Brief description of the N is the total number of earthquakes, with
ed the attention of researchers over the years
N

and several types of patterns preceding large FastBEE algorithm magnitude Ms > Mmin;
earthquakes have been reported in the litera- Mmin is the minimum magnitude of the cata-
ture. The majority of these precursory patterns The seismicity parameters, calculated with logue completeness;
were based on the analysis of the number of the FastBEE algorithm are the number N of Nmin+i is the number of earthquakes in the
earthquakes and the quantitative and qualita- earthquakes per unit time, b-value and seismic ith magnitude;
tive magnitude distribution in space and time energy released. n = 1 + (Mmax Mmin) / M is the number of the
worldwide.1-8 In Greek territory Papadimitriou The number N of earthquakes in the Fast increment =0.20.
and Papazachos9 have reported the evidence of BEE algorithm is expressed as: The standard error of the b-value estimates
precursory doughnut patterns in the Ionian is obtained by means of the relation: b(t) =
Islands, while Papadopoulos10 and collabora- b(t)/ N(t)
tors propose a precursory seismicity pattern, in (1) Finally, the seismic energy released, per
the north Aegean Sea, based on the spatial dis- unit of time, is expressed in the form logE2/3 as:
tribution clustering of strong earthquake.
Kanamori11 has pointed out that although where:
the nature of the precursory pattern varies i is the number of earthquakes, with magni- (3)
from event to event, a common physical mech- tude Ms > Mmin;
anism may be responsible which details are Mmin is the minimum magnitude of the cata- where:
probably controlled by the tectonic environ- logue completeness; t is the time in months;
ment and the heterogeneity of the medium. t is the time in months; n(t-w) is the number of earthquakes in the

[Research in Geophysics 2014; 4:4899] [page 7]


Review

smoothing window time interval; where:


E2/3i is the seismic energy of the ith earth- xi is the value of each parameter i.e., logN, b- Qualitative temporal variation
quake in the time window w, which, for Greek value and logE2/3; precursory seismicity pattern
territory, is equal to 101.5Ms+4.7.18 nt is the number of earthquakes in one month.
Estimates of the temporal changes that, The creation of such monthly arrays allows The observed clear fluctuation of all param-
excess the confidence limits, in respect to the obtaining the statistical estimates of the eters, over and above their relative mean val-
long-term observations, were taken as a meas- parameters by means of recursive formulas ues, forms consecutive relative minima and
ure of the statistical significance. and according to the defined smoothing win- maxima. These changes are believed to reflect
From the physical point of view, the quanti- dow. During the second stage, the monthly the changes in stress in the broader area and
ty logE2/3, is proportional to the rate of accumu- time series are smoothed, with a user defined were interpreted in terms of qualitative char-
lation of the dynamic ruptures in the strong smoothing window and with the resulting acter phenomenological cycle of earthquake
earthquakes preparation process area,19,20 and smoothed estimates assigned at the end of the preparation phases. Their remarkable and
this may reflect the variations of the tectonic smoothing window. As it is well known the use repeated relation with strong earthquakes
stress in the region of the observation. of a simple smoothing procedure is equivalent occurrence, found in several retrospective
The temporal variation series of all exam- to the process of filtering with a rectangular analyses were considered as prognostic anom-
ined seismic parameters were obtained in two shape filter. alies and the clear and repeated appearance as
stages. In the first stage is created, a tempo- In order to avoid the side lobes of the rectan- a qualitative character precursory seismicity
rary seismic catalog data set, around the gular filter used, the smoothed time series pattern. The general trend of this pattern, in all
strong earthquake epicenter. Usually these were filtered again with another triangular- three parameters, appears schematically in
areas dimensions, in the FastBEE algorithm is shape filter, of the same width. This new Figure 1 and its characteristics can be summa-
depending on the availability of the data and applied low-pass filter, allows the periods equal rized as follow.

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the purposes of the study, taking also into than the half of the smoothing window to pass The temporal variation of the parameter

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on
account the dimension of the examined seis- without distortion. The new re-filtered esti- logN, shows, in the majority of the cases a
mogenic source. Based on the experience from mates, this time are assigned at the center of clear decreasing phase toward to the relative
previous retrospectively analyzed cases a rec- the filtered window. The final output includes mean value, in the examined time interval and

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tangular area with size ranging from 80 to 120 the temporal variation of all three examined bellow to the confidence level of 70%, reaching
km can fit adequately the purposes present seismic parameters, which each one appears as to a relative minimum. Usually the relative
study. Consequently the monthly arrays for all
three examined parameters, using the follow-
us
a complex of two superposed curves. The first
thin violet curve represents the smoothed time
mean values, especially when the examined
time interval is long enough, some how repre-
series and the second bolder red line the filtered sent the background (normal) seismicity of a
al
ing relations:
one. The standard errors for the b-value and the given region and the previously decreased
ci

confidence limit 1 of the parameters logN and behavior denote kind of quiescence period.
(4) logE2/3 can be seen also, as lines parallel to their This parameter usually reflects the fluctuation
er

mean values in the examined time period. of the number of earthquakes despite the pres-
m
m
- co
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N

Figure 1. Characteristic FastBEE output schematic general trend


of the temporal prognostic anomaly (solid blue lines) before a
strong earthquake occurrence. The open rectangular parallelo-
gram denotes the first, low probability stage, since the prognos-
tic anomaly beginning, followed by a second higher probability
stage, which conclude with the strong earthquake occurrence. Figure 2. Map of seismic epicenters of the shallow strong earth-
Vertical red arrow shows the earthquake origin time. quakes with magnitude MS6.0, in the time period 2000-2008.

[page 8] [Research in Geophysics 2014; 4:4899]


Review

ent or the absence of a strong earthquake. In time evolution of the first stage the probability tude threshold, although arbitrary, represents
case of strong earthquake occurrence the for a strong earthquake occurrence is very low, according to Papazachos and Papazachou,18
influence of its aftershock activity can add contrary with the beginning of the second stage the lower magnitude of a destructive earth-
information of the evaluation of the two other the probability increases signalizing thus an quake with a return period of about one year.
considered seismic parameters. In all exam- alarm period. As the temporal anomaly is The seismic data set used for each case, was
ined cases, the preceded smaller magnitude approaching to its end the probability of occur- taken from the Earthquake Catalogue of the
events have not aftershock activity, in order to rence became higher (dashed line in Figure 1). Geodynamic Institute of the National
attribute the observed prognostic anomalies, Among the three examined seismic parameters Observatory of Athens (GINOA), Greece and
in such kind of activity. Moreover it was found it was also found that b-value and the seismic they are homogeneous and complete for events
that the use of a declustered, for aftershocks, energy releases in the form logE2/3 are more with M3.5 after 2000.3 Table 1 reports the list
earthquake catalogue doesnt change the qual- informative in respect to the parameter logN, of the examined strong earthquakes and their
itative character of the observed precursory although this last can add information when respective catalogue parameter. In the same
seismicity pattern. Parameter b-value instead anomalous temporal variation appears in the table, the magnitudes taken for the U.S.
shows at the beginning an increasing trend seismicity of the region. Nonetheless parameter Geological Survey/National Earthquake
until it reaches a relative maximum. After that
logE2/3 seems to describe much better the Information Center (USGS/NEIC) Global
this parameter starts to decreases constantly
observed temporal variation of the seismicity Hypocenters Data Base System have been also
toward to the relative mean value and even
due to the temporal changes of the stress field reported, for a comparison. Figure 2 shows the
lower. Usually the strong earthquake occur-
influence, since this situation can be expressed epicenters of these strong earthquakes as
rence coincides within this time interval and
mostly at its later stage. Finally the fluctuation better in the ambit of relatively greater size numbered circles according to the serial num-
of the parameters logE2/3, in similarity with earthquake magnitudes i.e. greater than 3.5-3.8 bers of Table 1 and with sizes proportional to
those of smaller size. their magnitude. The Skyros 2001, July 26,

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parameter logN and contrary to the b-value
Ms=5.8 earthquake, although its smaller size

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behavior, is characterized by a gradual

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decrease toward to the relative mean value and was also included in this study because it
even lower to the confidence limit. The inver- belongs to a cluster of eight (8) strong events,
sion of this trend to toward to the mean value, Data having epicenters very close to Greek capital

e
signalize the impending strong earthquake Athens (Table 2), which have been occurred
occurrence.
It was observed that the temporal evolution of
the foresaid prognostic anomaly could be divid-
us
In this analysis were investigated all shallow
strong earthquakes, with magnitude Ms6.0,
that occurred in Greek territory in the time
within 14 h, denoting thus a remarkable strong
earthquakes activity. Moreover its main shock
magnitude is reported as 6.5 according to NEIC
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ed in two distinct temporal stages. During the period 2000-2008. The choice of this magni- Data Base.
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Table 1. Earthquakes catalogue parameters with magnitude MS6.0, in the time period 2000-2008.
er

s/n Date Origin time Latitude Longitude Depth Magnitude Magnitude


m

(UTC) (degree) (degree) (km) GINOA NEIC


1 2001 Jul 26 00:21 39.06 24.24 10 5.8 6.5 MwGS
m

2 2003 Aug 14 05:14 38.79 20.56 12 6.4 6.3 MwHRV


co

3 2005 Oct 17 05:45 38.13 26.59 29 6.0 5.5 MwHRV


4 2005 Oct 18 15:25 37.58 20.86 22 6.1 5.7 MwHRV
-

5 2007 Mar 25 13:57 38.34 20.42 15 6.0 5.7 MwGS


on

6 2008 Feb 14 10:09 36.50 21.78 41 6.7 6.9 MwGCMT


7 2008 Jun 8 12:25 37.98 21.51 25 7.0 6.4 MwGCMT
N

8 2008 Jul 15 03:26 35.85 27.92 56 6.7 6.4 MwGCMT


9 2008 Oct 14 02:06 38.85 23.62 24 6.1 5.2 MwGCMT
GINOA, Geodynamic Institute of the National Observatory of Athens; NEIC, National Earthquake Information Center.

Table 2. List of the Skyros, July 26, 2001 earthquake aftershocks, with magnitude MS5.0.
s/n Date Origin time Latitude Longitude Depth Magnitude*
(UTC) (degree) (degree) (km)
1 2001 Jul 26 00:21 39.06 24.24 10 5.8
2 2001 Jul 26 00:34 39.04 24.35 18 5.3
3 2001 Jul 26 02:01 39.10 24.31 21 5.0
4 2001 Jul 26 02:06 38.96 24.45 23 5.2
5 2001 Jul 26 02:09 38.92 24.52 24 5.3
6 2001 Jul 26 02:40 38.97 24.57 5 5.1
7 2001 Jul 26 04:53 39.06 24.38 22 5.1
8 2001 Jul 26 14:24 39.11 24.27 5 5.1
*Parameters were taken from the catalog of Geodynamic Institute of National Observatory of Athens.

[Research in Geophysics 2014; 4:4899] [page 9]


Review

both reach the respective relative maximum and


Results and minimum, which denote the beginning of
the second stage. This stage becomes critical R2 = 0.67 (6)
Each strong earthquake was examined for in the middle of 2000 and especially when the
the presence of the foresaid temporal varia- logE2/3 parameter crosses the lower confidence In the same way, were obtained the polyno-
tion anomaly, before its occurrence and limit (70%) line, signalizing the high probabil- mial fittings for the rest of the examined
according to the characteristics of the previ- ity of a strong earthquake, which occurred one cases, based on their shapes and their total
ously outlined qualitative precursory seismic- year later i.e. July 26, 2000. durations on logE2/3 seismic parameter prog-
ity pattern. Figure 3 shows the characteristic Application of this algorithm in different nostic anomalies, Figure 5. The mean value of
FastBEE output of the seismic parameters areas of Greece13,15 and in India14 has shown statistical treatment of these anomalies can be
temporal variation and the origin time of the that parameters logE2/3 is more informative in expressed in terms of a mean polynomial
Skyros, Jul 26, 2001 Ms=5.8 strong earth- respect to the two others and more constant in equation of the form:
quake as an example. respect to the b-value. For this reason we will
The visual inspection of this figure shows consider this parameter in order to quantify logE = 2.0101x2 8.1302x (7)
clearly the presence of the prognostic anomaly the prognostic anomaly characteristics to com-
described previously preceding the strong pare with the rest of the examined cases and Table 3 reports the duration of the prognos-
earthquake. Precisely the parameter logN start for further statistic analysis. tic anomalies in months, the polynomial fitting
to decrease continuously after the middle of Figure 4 shows the polynomial regression equation and the respective error for each
the year 1998, when it crosses the relative trend line of the smoothed temporal variation examined case. From this table results that the
mean value equal to 1.32 denoting somehow a estimates of the parameter logE2/3 for the prog- mean duration of the prognostic anomaly
clear quiescence period, which lasts till the nostic anomaly of the Skyros 2001 July 26, measured in the parameter logE2/3 is equal as

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occurrence of the main shock. Simultaneously Ms=5.8 earthquake, with the respective equa- 4528 and range between a minimum of 17 to

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the parameters b-value and logE2/3, starts to tion and R-squared value. The regression a maximum 73 months. Figure 6 shows the
increases and decreases respectively going equation and the respective R-squared value correlation between them is expressed in
through the first stage, of the low probability follow as: terms of a linear equation of the form:

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for an earthquake occurrence.
After one year (middle of the year 1999) y = 1 06x2 0.089x + 16 (5) TDur = 22.96Ms 109.7 (8)
us
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ci
er
m
m
- co
on
N

Figure 3. Temporal variation of the seismic parameters logN[t], Figure 5. The shapes and the durations of the seismic parameter
b-value and logE2/3, with their respective standard errors, for the logE2/3 prognostic anomalies for each examined strong earth-
Skyros 2001 July 26, Ms=5.8 strong earthquake. The numbered quake and their respective polynomial fitting.
arrow perpendicular to the time axis denotes the earthquake ori-
gin time.

Figure 4. Smoothed temporal variation estimates of logE2/3, of the Figure 6. The dependence between magnitude of the examined
prognostic anomaly for the Skyros 2001 July 26, Ms=5.8 earth- strong earthquakes and total duration of the prognostic anomaly
quake and the respective polynomial fitting line (red line). measured in the parameter logE2/3.

[page 10] [Research in Geophysics 2014; 4:4899]


Review

Table 3. The duration of the prognostic anomalies, in the parameter logE2/3 temporal variation and the magnitudes of the examined
cases.
s/n Case of earthquake Prognostic anomaly duration (months) Equation R2
1 Skyros 2001 38 y = 106x2 0.09x + 16 0.67
2 Leukada 2003 30 y = 206x2 0.17x + 32 0.78
3 Cesme 2005 17 y = 907x2 0.069x + 13 0.80
4 Zante 2005 33 y = 207x2 0.016x + 32 0.42
5 Kephalonia 2007 56 y = 807x2 0.06x + 13 0.89
6 S Messiniakos 2008 22 y = 207x2 0.02x + 32 0.70
7 Rodos 2008 73 y = 207x2 0.02x + 32 0.70
8 Achaia Elia 2008 52 y = 206x2 0.16x + 31 0.90
9 Evia 2008 21 y = 407x2 0.03x + 68 0.93

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er

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m

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co

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