Judul lap: analisa karakteristik dan peramalan permintaan spare parts pada PT.

Petrokimia Gresik

!forecasting method for spare part demand

Spare parts have particular features which make extremely delicate and
sophisticate their management. Dalam industry manufaktur persediaan spare parts
di gudang sangat diperhatikan. Manajemen memantau inventory spare part agar
tidak sampai kosong. Hal ini, dikarenakan jika spare part yang dibutuhkan tidak
tersedia di gudang, maka akan mempengaruhi proses produksi. Permintaan spare
parts yang tidak pasti merupakan masalah yang sering terjadi dalam manajemen
pengadaan dalam industry manufaktur. Berdasarkan pada (forecast!) karakteristik
permintaan spare parts dapat dibagi menjadi sebagai berikut:

1. Slow moving or smooth, this items have a behavior which is similar to that of
the traditional articles, at low rotation, of a productive system
2. Strictly intermittent, they are characterized by extremely sporadic demand
(therefore a lot of period with no demand) with a not accentuated variability
in the quantity of the single demand,
3. Erratic, the fundamental characteristics is the great variability of the
requested quantity, but the demand is approximately constant as distribution
in the time,
4. Lumpy, is the most difficult to control category, because it is characterized by
a lot of intervals with zero-demand and great variability in the quantity.

In Ghobbar et al. (2003, p.2105) suggest some cut values which allow a more detailed
characterization of the intermittent standard of spare parts demand. The Figure 1.3 presents
the four categories of the spare parts demand (patterns) as they are defined by the present
literature:

ADI = 1.32

Slow movingIntermittent
CV = 0.49
Erratic Lumpy

For a valuation of this double characterization of spare parts demand, two parameters
recognized in international field are utilized:
- ADI - Average inter-demand interval: average interval between two demand
of the spare part. It is usually expressed in periods, where the period is the
referential time interval which the business utilizes for the purchases;
- CV Coefficient of variation: standard deviation of the demand divided by
the average demand.

For ADI, N is the number of periods with non-zero demand, while for CV it is the
number of all periods.

The spare parts demand is very particular. In the majority of the cases, it takes place with
irregular time intervals and concerns reduced and, above all, very variable quantities, as shown
in Figure 1.2.

Because future demand plays a very important role in production planning and
inventory management of spare parts, fairly accurate forecasts are needed. The
manufacturing sector has been trying to manage the uncertainty of demand of spare
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parts for many years, which has brought about the development of many forecasting
methods and techniques. Classical statistical methods, such as exponential smoothing
and regression analysis, have been used by decision makers for several decades in
forecasting spare parts demand. In addition to uncertainty reduction methods like
forecasting, uncertainty management methods such as adding redundant spare parts
have also been devised to cope with demand uncertainty in manufacturing planning
and control systems (Bartezzaghi et al., 1999, p.501).

In brief, a lot of forecasting methods have been elaborated

and studied in the filed of spare parts demand.

Methods Inputs Description Mathematical Model

Single - Historical data It adopts a smoothing Exponential smoothing
exponential - Smoothing constant constant of the real
smoothing demands
Crostons method - Historical data Evolution of SES which also Exponential smoothing
- Interval between looks on intervals of zero
present and last non- demand
zero demand
- Smoothing constant
Syntetos-Boylon - Historical data Evolution of croston in order Exponential smoothing
approximation - Interval between to decrease the error of the
present and last non- expected estimate of demand
zero demand per time period
- Smoothing constant
Moving Average - Historical data Mean of the past n demands Arithmetic mean
- Number of data to
considerate
Weighted moving - Historical data Mean of past n demands with Arithmetic mean
average - Number of data to decreasing weights
considerate
Additive winter - Historical data Evolution of SES with the - Exponential
- Smoothing constant introduction of additive terms smoothing
- Trend constant on the components (trend, - Sum of
- Periodicity constant casual component) components
- Width of periodicity
Multiplicative - Historical data Evolution of SES with the - Exponential
winter smoothing introduction of additive terms smoothing
- constant on the components (trend, - Product of
- Trend constant casual component) components
- Periodicity constant
- Width of periodicity
Bootstrap - Historical data Modern approach to - Probabilistic
method - Number of re-sampling statistical inference, failing model (re-
- Width of a sample within a broader class of sampling)
resampling methods
Poisson method - Historical data Application of the binomial Probabilistic model
- Interval time T formula to forecast (binomial
- Punctual value of the x distribution)
demand to forecast
Neural network - Historical data Based on human intelligence, Not mathematical
- Number of neurons it learns from a training set model
- Number of layers the connection between
 - Leaming algorithm inputs and output (the
- Function of error forecast)

!forecasting in end of life

In manufacturing, a spare part is an item that can be used to repair an

existing product. Often the key element to successful procurement is spare
part demand forecasting. Obviously, if the spare part demand is
deterministic, external factors are very restrictive (such as regulations that
require a certain amount of spare parts in stock).

spare part management framework

External factors, such as supplier contracts

Judgemental demand forecast

Procurement procedure Unit item costs

Statistical demand forecast

Requirements, such as service level

Compared to manufacturing parts, also forecasting the demand of spare parts is a different task
and generally a more difficult one. As Patton (2007) states, It is possible to determine how
many service parts are enough.; but it is more problematic that, contrary to parts used in
manufacturing, the real demand is most likely to be very much closer to zero than the theoretical
maximum. In general, the spare item demand is intermittent and random. The demand is not
homogeneous between spare parts. Some parts are very commonly replaced whereas for some
there is a respectable probability that they will never be needed. This separates spare parts from
parts needed in manufacturing, where such probabilities do not exist, but the amount of
components needed per product is deterministic. Likewise, the life cycle has a large impact in
forecasting spare parts. For manufacturing material, the demand volume and life cycle are often
somewhat known in advance, while the ramp-ups and -downs of a product manufacturing line
are planned beforehand, at least at some level. With spare parts, the life cycle impact is much
more uncertain, because there seldom exists information about the time dependency of spare part
demand: it is hard to estimate how the spare part demand will develop in the EOL phase based
on demand in the normal phase. In Figure 2.5, some important factors making a difference in
demand are presented.

Factors affecting the demand of manufacturing part vs spare part

Factor Manufacturing part Spare part
Demand type High volumes at steady level Low volume, intermittent
Life cycle impact Predictable Unpredictable and large
One or few product Many products in different life
Source of demand
manufacturing lines cycles phases
Source of randomness in Untraceable due to numerous
Traceable
demand sources

Ketersediaan spare parts dalam industry manufaktur merupakan hal yang sangat penting dan
harus diperhatikan guna menjaga kelangsungan proses produksi. Manajemen pengadaan harus
menjaga jumlah spare parts pada gudang. Untuk menjaga ketersediaan spare parts di gudang agar
tidak sampai terjado stock out, maka manajemen harus melakukan perhitungan peramalan
permintaan spare parts yang mungkin akan dibutuhkan pada periode selanjutnya. Namun, dalam
melakukan peramalan terdapat kendala yang sering terjadi, yaitu antara lain karena permintaan
yang bersifat tidak pasti, maka sering jumlah yang diasumsikan tidak sesuai dengan kenyataan.
Terdapat beberapa jenis pola permintaan, yaitu slow moving, intermittent, dan lumpy.
Selanjutnya, dengan mengetahui pola permintaan, maka dapt dilakukan perhitungan peramalan
sesuai dengan pola permintaan tersebut. Sejauh ini, banyak penelitian ynag telah melakukan
perhitungan peramalan permintaan spare parts dengan menggunakan beberapa metode yang
berbeda. Beberapa metode yang dapat digunakan untuk melakukan peramalan yaitu antara lain
metode single exponential smoothing, simulasi monte carlo, dan sebagainya.

In manufacturing industry, the availability of spare part is one of the important and considerate in
order to maintain the continuity of the production process. The number of spare parts in the
warehouse must be maintain by warehouse management. To maintain the availability of spare
parts in the warehouse, the demand forecasting calculations of spare parts must be conducted.
However, because the demand is uncertain, the number of spare parts for the next period is
difficult to calculate. it is often assumed that the number does not match the reality.

There are several types of demand characteristcs, ie slow-moving , intermittent , and lumpy .
Furthermore , by knowing the pattern of demand , it can be done in accordance with the
prediction of the demand pattern . So far , many studies who had already calculating spare parts
demand forecasting by using several different methods. Several methods can be used for
forecasting are single exponential smoothing method, monte carlo simulation, etc .