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16 January, 2017 | created using FiveFilters.org
In Davos, Bracing for a
Shifting U.S. Stance on
Climate Change
LONDON However slowly and tentatively, nations around the
globe appear to be taking some steps to confront the growing
threat of climate change.
But on Friday, Donald J. Trump, a self-described climate change
doubter, will assume the presidency of the United States. And the
same week, half a world away at the World Economic Forum in
Davos, Switzerland, climate experts will be pondering what his
ascent means for their efforts to make progress on the issue.
After all, Mr. Trump has threatened to scupper the Paris deal on
climate change and questioned the science of global warming, and
he may try to roll back regulations devised to curb greenhouse gas
emissions.
I think there is going to be a lot of talk about what the rest of the
world does with the United States not playing leadership roles,
especially on climate, said David G. Victor, a professor of
international relations at the University of California, San Diego,
who plans to moderate panels at Davos on the changing energy
industry.
Mr. Victor forecast that some participants would be critical of the
United States and try to figure out which governments could fill
any vacuum created by Mr. Trumps administration.
This is not an easy question to answer, he suggested. France and
Germany, European Union heavyweights, might have been
expected to step up, but they are distracted by issues like
migration and Brexit, Britains effort to withdraw from the
union.
While it may not become apparent at Davos, Mr. Victor said, I
expect in the real world the Chinese are going to become one of
the leading countries on climate change.
The future of the energy industry is also likely to be paramount.
Because fossil fuels like oil, coal and natural gas produce the bulk
of greenhouse gas emissions blamed for global warming, major
changes that are already underway in how we generate electric
power, fuel our vehicles or heat our homes are required to address
climate change, most experts say.
A gathering like Davos, of course, has no real power, but it brings
together influential people with important messages. All these
perspectives come together in one place, said Daniel Yergin, the
oil historian, who has been going to Davos for a quarter-century.
You pick up signals earlier for change, said Mr. Yergin, who is
also vice chairman of IHS Markit, a research firm.
Ideas that bubble up in the snowy Swiss mountains can take root
in the world outside. In 2014, for instance, Christophe de
Margerie, the charismatic chief executive of the French oil giant
Total, told fellow oil chiefs that they needed to take a much more
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active role in shaping the climate agenda, which was likely to be
crucial for their industry.
Mr. de Margerie was killed in a plane crash that fall, not long after
major European oil companies including Royal Dutch Shell and
Italys Eni, along with state-owned companies like Saudi Aramco
and Chinas CNPC, formed a group called the Oil and Gas Climate
Initiative. The group, now chaired by Robert Dudley, BPs chief
executive, has acknowledged that its activities and products
contribute to greenhouse gas emissions blamed for climate
change, and it announced in November that it would spend $1
billion on technology to reduce emissions.
A strong contingency of energy executives is expected to gather
again at Davos this year at a time when major changes are roiling
their industry. The surge in wind and solar energy has electric
utilities, especially in Europe, scrambling to adapt. Digital
advances are opening the way for new power providers and
traders, while electric cars are taking off.
Several sessions planned for Davos will focus on this energy
transition, according to Roberto Bocca, a former oil executive who
is head of energy industries at the World Economic Forum, the
Geneva-based organization that runs the conference. The
organizers will try to highlight promising technologies that could
make a dent in global warming.
Innovations in fracking and drilling have also created ferment in
the oil and gas industry. The boom in North American output set
off by those innovations has upended the traditional industry,
slashed prices and put financial pressure on the major exporting
countries.
In the latest chapter, after pumping hard to let prices fall and
force American output down, OPEC, led by Saudi Arabias oil
minister, Khalid al-Falih, who regularly attends Davos, and Russia
have agreed to trim output to prop up prices.
Some analysts say these shifts, which are transforming the energy
industry, will move ahead regardless of which governments,
including the Trump administration, are in power. A historian
who looks back 50 years from now is likely to say this was the time
when the game changed, said Dieter Helm, a professor of energy
policy at the University of Oxford. I think the climate change
issue is being addressed by technological change like electric
cars, the next generation of solar and other advances.
A question likely to come up at Davos is whether these changes
are happening fast enough to avoid dangerous levels of global
warming. Noting forecasts that demand for oil would continue
rising until 2040, Mr. Yergin referred to a conviction on the part
of many that the technology is not there now to achieve those
goals.
The answers will ultimately come from technology, and it is just
not there now, Mr. Yergin said.
He also suggested that the United States would remain a crucial
variable in the climate and energy equation. What happens in the
United States will be very important, he said.
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