Mbuli Rene

A Regional Perspective of the Conflict-Risks Arguments in Burundi

Introduction

The Continent of Africa has been the scene of insecurity and wars from pre to post-
independence. The end of the Cold War brought renewed challenges to most states that
acted as proxies to the East and West blocs and their neighbours. One of the regions that
have greatly transformed the geopolitical landscape of the Continent is the Great Lakes
Region of Africa. The Great Lakes Region for the convenience of this paper is the stretch
between Lakes Tanganyika, Victoria and Kivu; covering countries such as the
Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Burundi, Uganda, Rwanda , Kenya and
Tanzania. Each of these countries have witnessed or been affected by conflicts in the
region, with very high repercussions on their political and socio-economic agendas.
Burundi has been in conflict since its independence in 1962. The height of it was in 1993
after the death of its first democratically elected president Melchoire Ndadaye. The cycle
of ethnically motivated clashes led to untold human suffering and serious weakened the
country’s political and socio-economic institutions. The conflict in Burundi has ended
after close to thirteen years of fighting but , the continues hostility ; the socio-political
institutional breakdown ; the political power-play ; poverty and the low standard of living
have pushed some analysts to posit that the country is in high risks of going back into
chaos before, during or after the 2010 elections. This argument has been advanced based
on some negative and worrisome events and developments that have taken place recently
in Burundi. It is obvious that the peace in Burundi is still very fragile meanwhile
Government institutions are still struggling to operate effectively. However, looking at
the situation in Burundi from a regional perspective, this article goes against the above
argument by positing that the events advanced in favour of a possible conflict in the
country are too minimal to engender a cycle of crisis in Burundi as was the case in the
1990s.

A - The Argument on the High Conflict-Risk in Burundi

Most analysts have advanced a myriad of factors to argue in favour of a possible conflict
in a pre or post-2010 election in Burundi. Amongst the factors, analysts have stated the
widespread illegal arms caches that have been uncovered recently as well as the ‘conflict-
centric” sporting activities by the youth - wings of political parties. The high rate of
illegal weapons possession by civilians following the voluntary weapons remission under
the “weapons against tool” program gives the feeling that there are more weapons in
hiding, and possibly in preparation against any negative eventuality that may occur.
Moreover, the re-arming of militants by political parties to intimidate the electorates and
the integration of former rebels into the ranks of the police and the army can produce a
catastrophic reaction incase of any negative incidents during or after the elections.
Another issue that has been advanced is the deficits in the DDR (disarmament,
demobilization and reintegration) process. With the with failures registered in the
reintegration phrase, it is viewed as a possible fresh ground for returnee ex-combatants
to join rebel groups in promoting violence in case of a mishap in the peace process.
Analysts have equally cited the presence of some enabling environments for conflicts in
Burundi such as the division within political parties exacerbated by the massive return of
refugees and the low living conditions of the Burundi population. These threats are real
and the argument is plausible and genuine but certain conditions at the regional level
need to be considered in order to make a real and balanced assessment of the conflict –
risk in Burundi.

B - A Regional Perspective of the Past Situation

I- The Causes of the Conflicts in the Great Lakes Region

As far as the Great Lakes region is concerned, it has been agreed that there exist a high
interconnection between the internal and external dynamics of the conflicts that have
occurred in the region. From this vantage point, looking at the political landscape in the
region from the 1960s through the 1990s and early 2000 will paint an explicit picture of
the regional conflict formation web; while providing a better understanding of the socio-
political and economic structures that have permitted the regionalization of local or
internal conflicts.

II- Ethnicity, Perception and the 1994 Rwandan Genocide

The Great Lakes region is predominantly inhabited by two groups – Hutu (approximately
80%) and Tutsi (approximately 20%). This ethnic dispensation and the struggle to control
power and the limited resources in the respective countries have led to a complex and
intractable conflict in the region. The Hutus have long considered themselves to be the
rightful owners of the land while viewing the Tutsis as ‘foreigners’. Haven been relegated
to servitude positions at the benefit of the Tutsi minority in the colonial period, they
nursed plans of expelling and/or exterminating their ‘oppressors’ and regaining their lost
property. The loose and porous borders in the region permitted a free and easy interaction
between Hutu kiths and kin living in different parts of border countries to organize and
foment their long held plans. The Rwandan Genocide of 1994 that followed the death of
the Burundian President Melchoire Ndadaye, associated with the negative perceptions
that both groups had of each other, produce negative political mayhem that almost
chopped the entire region. Ethnicity alone could not have led the region in to chaos but it
became dangerous when it was associated to other factors. Ethnicity played a great role
since militants were organized and mobilized along ethnic lines. Consequently, over one
million Hutus fled the country into other parts of the region such as Eastern Zaire,
Burundi, Uganda and Tanzania. The harbouring of the Hutu extremist interahamwe in
these neighbouring countries helped to strain relations with the Tutsi regime of Rwanda.
This led to gradual but repeated intrusions by Rwanda into the neighbouring countries
under the guise of combating the last Hutu vestiges; thereby indirectly interfering in their
internal affairs. For example, in 1996, Rwanda sent forces into Eastern Zaire to dismantle
the refugee camps in the North and South Kivu. This intrusion strained relations with the
Government in the DRC who in turn supported and /or backed rebel factions that opposed
the regime in Rwanda. The effects of the genocide were also felt in the peace processes in
the region. For example, in 2001 the desire to see the DRC disarm the interahamwe
caused serious blows to the 1999 Lusaka Agreement.

III- Mistrust, Greed and Trans-border shadow interactions amongst Neigbours

Most of the countries in the region viewed each other as potential enemies given their
ethnic distribution, the quest for power and the desire to control resources. In 1997,
Laurent-Desire Kabila with the blessings and support of Rwanda and Uganda launch
attacks in the DRC with the aim of toppling the government of Mobutu Sese Seko. This
support for Kabila was inspired by geostrategic motives, given that any victory by Kabila
will automatically guarantee a portion of the abundant natural resources in the DRC.
Following the subsequent strained relations with Rwanda and Uganda in 1998, Kabila
and his Alliance of Democratic forces for the Liberation of Congo (AFDL) pulled
support from Zimbabwe, Angola and Namibia. In this complex game, Burundi chose to
join the Rwanda-Uganda-Angola group .Angola joined in favour of Kabila because of
Mobutu’s previous support for the UNITA (National Union for the Total Independence of
Angola) rebels. This situation complicated relations and cooperation amongst the
countries in the region, created sub groups and simultaneously exacerbated any conflict
that arose in part of the region. In this context, some analysts have viewed the DRC as the
‘epicenter’ of the conflicts in the region. In July 1999, the intervention of the
international community produced the Lusaka Ceasefire Agreement that was signed by
all the parties involved in the DRC; demanding for their formal withdrawal.

IV- Support to Armed Factions and Rebel Groups

Another factor that contributed to the destabilization of the region was the support of
armed groups by neighbouring countries. During the First Congo War of 1996, the
Government of the DRC gave support to the militias of the Rassemblement
Democratique Pour le Rwanda (Hutu group) that planned attacks on Rwanda from their
base in Zaire. In retaliation, Rwanda backed the Tutsi Banyamulengue of eastern Zaire
and supplied them with weapons against the DRC Government. Moreover, in the Second
Congo War (August 1998 - July 2003), Rwanda supported the Rally for Congolese
Democracy (RCD) of Jean-Pierre Bemba which was predominantly composed of
Banyamulengue to fight the regime of Kabila. Uganda equally backed a proxy rebel
group, the Movement for the Liberation of Congo (MLC). In 2000, the rest of the
interahamwe who had succeeded to flee from Rwanda into the DRC organized into an
anti-Rwandan/RPF rebel movement called the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of
Rwanda (FDLR) with the blessing of the DRC. The activities of this movement have
caused great instability both in the DRC and Rwanda. It was only after the Pretoria
Accord of July and the Luanda Agreement of September 2002 that DRC’s relations with
Rwanda and Uganda respectively started normalizing. Tanzania which is the only country
in the region that has not witnessed successive conflicts was nonetheless involved in
backing rebel movements in the region. Tanzania provided a safe base for the
PALIPEHUTU (Party for the Liberation of the Hutu People) which later became a
powerful militia group against the Burundi Government.1 There was also great
information coordination or sharing between Burundian and Rwandan Hutu armed
groups.2 This enabled a successful coordination of their attacks and destabilizing
activities in both countries. These hidden networks and support to illegal rebel
movements only helped to inflame little sparks across the region.

V- Weak Regional Economic Cooperation

In the 1990s, the economic platform in the region was very weak. The conflicts that had
engulfed the region and the hidden networks and mistrust greatly affected economic
cooperation amongst the States. In this regard, the regional economic groups that were
created were in effective and became mere institutional decorative ornaments. Due to this
vacuum, the countries in the region did not really have a strong unifying economic bond.
Given that economic transactions have the potential of transcending conflicts and
establishing more genuine cooperation based on development interests, the broken
economic cooperation led to a focus on political interests, thereby providing an enabling
environment for conflicts to persist.

VI- Ethnicity and the Actions of Refugees in the Region

The Great Lakes region of Africa has not only suffered from the movement of refugees
but also from the actions of refugees across borders. The persistence of conflicts in the
region led to a pool of refugees moving from one part of the permissible boundaries to
the other; simultaneously creating more destabilizing effects in the receiving countries.
Generally, there are about 85% Hutu, 14% Tutsis and 1% Twas with approximately two
of the fifteen million Hutu and Tutsi living out of Rwanda and Burundi. While some
Banyarwandas trace their origins in the Zaire’s eastern region of the North Kivu, others
such as the Banyamulenges claim to hail from the South of Kivu. 3 According to Giggs,
approximately 750,000 to one million Hutu are found along the Tanzanian borders with
Burundi and Rwanda.4 This expanded occupation of both groups in the region helped to
foster greater expansionist tendencies in neighbouring countries punctuated by struggles
to control the limited resources. It must be recalled that in September 1996, the
Banyamulenge rebellion in Zaire was caused by the desire of the Zairian Government to
repatriate some ethnic Tutsis back to Rwanda.
The conflict in Zaire’s eastern region in the first and second half of the 1990s (1993-
1996)was mostly fuelled by the refugees from Rwanda and Burundi and this weakened
Mobutu’s Government, paving the way for Kabila to achieve his long-held ambitions in
1997. As a matter of fact, most of the experienced refugees became recruits in Kabila’s
Alliance des Forces Democratiques pour la Liberation du Congo-Kinshasa (AFDL).
Following the 1994 genocide in Rwanda, most militias of the CNDD-FDD (Forces for
the Defense of Democracy) infiltrated the refugee camps and benefited from the
international aid to resource and re-arm themselves for future attacks on their home
government. More over, it was the Tutsi refugees (future members of the Rwandan
Patriotic Front - RPF) from Rwanda and Zaire that constituted a great majority of the
Yoweri Museveni’s National Resistance Movement that topple the Government of Milton
Obote in Uganda. Tanzania also maintained close ties with some Hutu militias in Burundi
such ad the FDD, FROLINAT (Front de Liberation Nationale) and the Palipehutu;
providing them with trainings in one of its many bases like the one near Lake Victoria
while aiding the groups in launching counter-offensives against the Burundian
Government.5 In 1995, Tanzania was used by Rwandan genocidaires as a base to raise
money and resource themselves for future attacks against their Government. Because
most refugees in the region in general have often been denied access to their home
countries sometimes on the basis of their ethnic background, many tended to assist
militias with the hope of gaining access to productive lands, forests products, citizenship
in the host country and other vital resources.

VII- Weak or Poor Political Systems of Government

Bad or poor governance in most countries of the region in the 1990s constituted a great
factor for political instability as many militia groups exploited the weakness of the State
to multiply attacks in uncontrolled areas. This was the case in the eastern regions of Zaire
(the two Kivus). Such attacks had spilled over effects on other countries such ad Rwanda
and Burundi when it became connected to factors like ethnicity.

VIII- Exclusion and Unmet Expectations

There existed a large degree of political and social exclusion in the region. Most analysts
have stated the contribution of gender, ethnic and professional exclusion as contributing
factors for conflicts in the Great Lakes. While many were denied the right to citizenship,
women were excluded from the decision-making panels and relegated to the backyard of
the society meanwhile jobs were offered along ethnic connections. This only helped to
promote the feeling of rejection and despair; thereby increasing the number of inter-
border movements and breaking fresh grounds for the multiplication and growth in
militias groups. In addition, citizens nursed high expectations from their political
leadership in terms of greater accountability, democracy, the fight against corruption and
freedom for the civil society. The disappointment that met these expectations only helped
to entrench the ethnic division and increase the propensity for war in the Great Lakes.

C – Present Political and Socio-economic Context of the Region

After assessing some of the regional factors and elements that contributed in fanning the
flames of conflicts in the Great Lakes region in general and enmeshing Burundi; we shall
put together some points based on the present socio-economic and political landscape vis-
à-vis the region that argue against the high conflict predisposition or vulnerability of
Burundi prior to or after the 2010 elections. Looking at the political and socio-economic
landscape of the region today, one observes some real changes that downplay the thesis
that Burundi is at high risks of relapsing into an unending cycle of conflict as in the past.

I- Political Situation in the Region

The political scenery of the Great Lakes today is different from the 1990s.
As far as a conflict is concerned, most of the hostilities in the region have either reduced
or come to an end.

In the DRC, a brokered peace deal between Kabila, Rwanda and Uganda in February
2001 saw the gradual withdrawal of foreign forces from the DRC and the establishment
of a UN peacekeeping Operation (MONUC) in April of the same year. Though there
were renewed fighting in 2002 due to ethnic clashes, all foreign forces except Rwanda
had left the country by June 2003. In 2006, the first democratic elections were held, with
Joseph Kabila becoming President. Even though the conflict is ongoing, its intensity has
gone very low. The FDLR has been seriously weakened by the counter attacks of the
DRC integrated army – FARDC and its KIMIA II operation. The attacks have caused
FDLR to retreat further in land. In July 2002, the group had an estimated fighting
capacity of between 15,000 and 20,000 but by October 2007, its capacity had dropped to
about 7,000.6 In January 2009, the Government of Rwanda in collaboration with the
DRC entered the DRC to chase away the FDLR rebels. Another serious blow to the
FDLR rebel group was the recent arrest in November 2009 of the group’s Chairman
Ignace Murwanashyaka and Vice, Straton Musoni in Germany.

In Uganda, the Lord’s Resistance Army guerrilla group that was based in Northern part
of the country has since been weakened by the Government’s reinforced offensives.
Moreover, two of its five strong leaders where killed in August 2006 and 2007
respectively. Many of the group’s members have since fled into Sudan.

In Rwanda, the ethnic mistrust and tension of the 1990s has been gradually absorbed by
the Government of Paul Kagame whose efforts; have led to progress in socio-cultural
integration, reconciliation and unity amongst all Rwandans through the newly adopted
Constitution of 2003. This new spirit has greatly reduced the ethnic tension and
encouraged the return of many former refugees. The genocide years are over and many
have turned their focus towards unity and development.

In Burundi, the hostilities are over and the last rebel group, the Palipehutu-FNL changed
its name to FNL, was approved as a political party by the Government of Pierre
Nkurunziza and is presently a fore-runner in the upcoming 2010 elections. There is
relative peace despite continues political restrictions and illegal arms possession by
civilians.

The reduction of the fighting in the countries of the region has simultaneously reduced
trans-border shadow influences by neigbouring countries. Many of the neighbouring
states that used to support, train and transform rebel movements into proxies against their
neighbours have grown weary of the conflicts in the region and changed their focus. The
DRC which has for long been the nerve centre of the conflicts in the region because of
to its large pool of resources is gradually becoming more secured with the departure of
foreign troops and the control of some resource-rich areas in the Kivu that were formerly
under the FDLR control. Sudan which formerly supported the LRA because of the
Government of Uganda’s backing of the SLA in Sudan officially ended its support for the
LRA in 2002. Rwanda and Uganda no longer back rebels against the DRC, but are now
cooperating to chase out or shut down the last rebel vestiges in the DRC. The
Government of Tanzania has also stopped its support to the rebel groups in the
neigbouring countries like Burundi. With the considerable role it has played in hosting
refugees and considering the fact that to some extent, it succeeded to insulate itself from
the shock waves of the conflicts in the region; Tanzania has gradually moved from
backing rebels to playing the role of a peace, reconciliation and regional cooperation
forerunner in the Great Lakes. This change of dynamics has reduced the “negative
forces” from the region and the trans-border illegal and conflict-promoting activities in
the Great Lakes that affected countries like Burundi. Looking at this dynamics, one
notices that conflicts in the region have relatively shifting from their regional dimension.

II- Return of Former Refugees

The conflicts in the 1990s caused a very large number of refugees who in turn exploited
the highly permissible borders to cause havoc in the entire region under the influence of
the hutu-tutsi ethnic divide. The quelling of guns in the region has seen a slow but steady
trend of returning refugees to their home countries. In Rwanda, although the scars of the
genocide are still present, the efforts of the Kagame Government to foster reconciliation
have helped to unite the country. Kagame even included the “right to return” for
displaced persons in the country’s new Constitution.
Looking at the trend based on statistics from the United Nations High Commissioner for
Refugees (UNHCR) in 2000, there were 19,760 Burundian refugees in the DRC and
538,448 in Tanzania. In 2008, the number of Burundian refugees in the DRC reduced to
in 17,588 with only 240,480 in Tanzania. Also, in 2000, 25,847 refugees from the DRC
moved into Burundi and 110,412 into Tanzania meanwhile in 2008 the number in
Burundi dwindles to 20,757 with only 79,706 in Tanzania.7 Moreover, in 2009, many
Congolese Banyamulenge refugees were moved from Burundi into the DRC. In
Tanzania, 538,448 and 110,412 refugees moved into the Burundi and the DRC
respectively. But by 2008, the figures reduced to 240,480 and 79,706 respectively for
Burundi and the DRC. The integration of some refugees into their host countries as well
as the return of other refugees to their home countries has greatly contributed in reducing
the number of conflicts in the region. Many have benefitted from international assistances
and set up micro projects and businesses. The financial assistance from the international
community has given more hope for the future and many refugees have now settled and
focus on development instead of acting as conflict vectors.

III- Socio-Economic Improvement

The socio-economic situation in the Great lakes region has also improved considerably.
Today, according to the Constitution in Rwanda, at least a third of women must be
represented at the Parliament. In 2008, women won about 56% of the seats in the
Parliament in Rwanda. In Burundi, women must have at least 30% representation
according to the 2005 Constitution. Even more important is the dimension of regional
cooperation in the Great lakes. Although there still exist hidden “negative networks” in
the region that have been pulling the strings and fanning the conflict while reaping
economic gains; most countries in the region have grown weary of the more than 13
years of hostilities and economic stagnation , undermining the great natural and human
endowment within the region. This explains why much effort in recent years has been
made to foster regional cooperation. In 2004, the International Conference on Peace,
Security, Democracy and Development in the Great Lakes Region held its first Summit
of Heads of State in Dar-es-salaam where they agreed to build the regional co-operation
mechanisms as a means of strengthening peace and development in the region. Other
initiatives to promote these ideals in the region include: the Group of Friends of the Great
Lakes Region which comprises about 23 countries from the OECD and some African
Countries; and the Tripartite Plus Joint Commission that was created in 2004 composed
of Burundi, Uganda, the DRC and Rwanda. The East African Community (EAC) has
received tremendous support from the countries in the region; becoming a pillar for
economic integration and to an extent, political cooperation amongst the countries.
Moreover, Burundi, Rwanda, Uganda and Kenya are members of the Community of East
and Southern African States (COMESA) that was created in 1994; meanwhile Burundi,
the DRC and Rwanda also have membership in the Economic Community of Central
African States (ECCAS). The renewed economic cooperation has had rippled effects in
the political domain by reducing mistrust, support to clandestine militia groups, and
promoting the shared desire for peace and development. Through these institutions, the
Great Lakes countries have understood that their internal or national stability is strongly
connected to and depends on the stability in the entire region.

IV- International Support for Peace

The role of the international community in the Great Lakes regions in the 1990s can be
qualified as having “mixed blessings”. While interventions and aid packages were
provided to meet the needs of the populations suffering from the scourges of the raging
unending conflicts; greed on the other hand pushed some international organizations and
partners to fan the flames of conflict by helping rebel groups, in return for shares from
the abundant natural resources in the region. The weakness of state institutions provided a
fertile ground for these external actors to implement the tactic of the “pea-nut plate and
the basket”.8 Big corporations overseas either provided financial and/or material
incentives to the warring parties or sponsored rebel movements in disguise. Today,
following advanced research on the conflict in the region, unraveled evidences, and
accusations of their negative implications in the conflicts, many external partners have
tried to erase the bad image by increasing the “positivities” of their actions. In this regard,
they have increased their support to Governments in their efforts for peace with the end
of hostilities. Following the attainment of the completion points in the Highly Indebted
Poor Countries – HIPC – initiative by Rwanda, Uganda, and Tanzania in 2005, 2000 and
2001 respectively; the international community gathering in Gleneagles in Scotland
placed these countries under the eligibility list for a one hundred per cent debt relief on
their multinational debts. Moreover, other institutions such as the Department for
International Development (DFID) gave huge financial assistance to support Government
institutions in sectors such as good governance, democracy, poverty reduction and
development. For example, DFID’s supported Rwanda’s annual programme for
2005/2006 with 43million pounds; increased its bilateral aid’s package for Uganda from
50 to 70 million pounds in 2006/2007. DFID also increased the poverty reduction aid to
Tanzania from 80 million pounds in 2003/2004 to 110 millions in 2005/2006.9 More and
more aid has been coming in from the international community to foster post – conflict
peace building in the Great Lakes regions. Increased efforts have led to the financing of
development projects and this has contributed in improving the living standards of the
people in the region. The United Nations through the PBC (Peace building Commission)
and the World Bank have been playing very great roles in promoting the peace
agreements amongst the political parties. Moreover, efforts from the development
programs have been concentrated on the strengthening of Government institutions to
foster human rights, democracy and accountability. Burundi today has an entire Ministry
in charge of Good Governance. This Ministry has been struggling to fight against
corruption and other financial irregularities in the country. Though these efforts from the
international community has not yet produced the expected results due to skepticism and
the shaky security situation in the countries, the support and response received from the
Great Lakes population has been very positive and promising.

D - Observations

It is true that the atmosphere in Burundi right now is full of insecurity, skepticism and
mistrust. The number of illegal arms in circulation and the re-arming of militants by
political parties to intimidate the electorates are certainly issues of concern. Even the
massive return of refugees and the low living conditions of the Burundi population can
become troubling when associated with other factors like limited land for farming and
living. However, looking at the situation from a regional perspective, any pre or post-
2010 elections disorder or conflict in Burundi will end at skirmishes level because most
of the regional forces as well as national actors have grown tied of conflicts. Aware of the
negative influence that past regional dynamics had in fanning or exacerbating national or
internal conflicts, one can posit with all certitude that, given the changing situation and
the relative calm the region has experienced in recent years; there have been great
changes in the entire set up at respective national levels. Tired of fighting without getting
the expected results or dividends, most rebels have started dropping their weapons to
enter the democratic power-sharing processes. With this new regional inclination for
peace, even the actions of “spoilers or external forces” have had very limited impacts on
national security compared to the past.

E- Recommendations

While it has unanimously been recognized that conflicts in the Great Lake region are
inextricably connected, the international community has a gargantuan role to play in
maintaining the newly-found peace. After over 13 years of fighting, the State institutions
have seriously been damaged, needing serious strengthening. Good governance,
democracy, the respect for human rights, justice and economic development are all
necessary to maintain the progress in the peace process; but if the respective institutions
handling these sectors are not supported and strengthened with adequate material and
human resources, the progress attained so far might be jeopardized. Moreover,
economically viable and advanced states such as Tanzania and Uganda should be given
adequate incentives by international partners in their efforts to promote cooperation
within existing regional institutions such as the EAC. However, in supporting these
countries as well as the regional initiatives, there is the great need to determine their
respective areas of jurisdiction in order to limit duplication of roles and wastage of
resources. Although peace and development are intertwined, it will be good to determine
which of the regional institutions (ECCAS, EAC, COMESA, IGAD etc...) should be
more active in promoting peace while supporting development and which should actively
promote economic cooperation and development while supporting the peace processes.
The UN should also step up its assistance to the Government of the DRC in the fight
against the FDLR though they seem to be loosing grounds. Given the interconnection
between the enduring conflict in the DRC and Burundi, if the FDLR is not defeated, they
may resource their tanks and negatively influence the peace building efforts in Burundi.
The international community and the Governments of the countries in the regions should
put extra efforts in managing the reintegration of returnees to their home countries. Land
scarcity has long been cited by previous researchers as a factor for the regionalization of
the conflicts in the Great Lakes. Governments need to ensure the proper and equitable re-
distribution of land in order to prevent future conflicts. When returnees have access to
land; it would reduce dependency on international organizations and encourage food
production which will in turn promote development. If these efforts are improved, the
effects of any socio-economic or politically motivated disorder that may occur in Burundi
before, during or after the 2010 elections will be easily contained without seriously
damaging the progress registered in the peace building process attained so far.
1
Jon Lunn, “The African Great Lakes Region: An End to Conflict?” House of Commons Library, 25 October 2006, P.28.
Available at: http://www.parliament.uk/commons/lib/research/rp2006/rp06-051.pdf. Accessed on 21November 2009.

2
Barnett R. Rubin et al., “Regional Conflict Formation in the Great Lakes Region of Africa: Structure, Dynamics and
Challenges for Policy”, Center on International Cooperation, November 2001, p.3. Available at
http://www.cic.nyu.edu/peacebuilding/oldpdfs/RCF_NAIROBI.pdf. Accessed on 19 November 2009.
3
Richard A.Griggs, Geostrategies in the Great Lakes conflict and spatial designs for peace, Independent Project Trust,
Durban, 1999. Available at http. Accessed on 22 November 2009.
4
Ibid.
5
Ibid.
6 Accessed on 30 November. Available at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_Forces_for_the_Liberation_of_Rwanda

7
UNHCR, Accessed on November 19 2009. Available at: http://apps.who.int/globalatlas/dataQuery/reportData.asp?
rptType=1
8
This consists of giving a plate of peanuts as international aid while gaining a basket full of [natural] resources in return.
9
Jon Lunn, “The African Great Lakes Region: An End to Conflict?”