BIOL 2163 ASSIGNMENT 2 DUE MONDAY, 10 OCTOBER, 2016 @ 12:00PM (NOON)

All assignments MUST be submitted in the BIOL 2163 assignment boxes in the Department of Mathematics and
Statistics. Assignments will NOT be accepted in lectures, tutorials or in labs.

Assignments must be written by hand or typed and printed. Soft copies or scans will NOT be accepted by email.

All working for calculations must be shown. Calculations must be done by hand or using a calculator. Software such
as R, SPSS, Minitab and Excel must not be used for assignments unless specifically requested.

ANSWER ALL QUESTIONS.

Question 1 Basic Concepts of Probability

a) What is the probability of an event that is certain to occur? [1]

b) What is the probability of an impossible event? [1]

c) A sample space consists of 10 separate events that are equally likely. What is the probability of each? [1]

d) On a true/false test, what is the probability of answering a question correctly if you make a random guess? [1]

e) On a multiple choice test with four possible answers A, B, C and D for each question, what is the probability of
answering a question correctly if you make a random guess? [1]

Question 2 Disjoint Events

For each part below, state whether the two events are disjoint. [1x4]

Event 1 Event 2
a) Electing a president of the United States. Electing a female president of the United States.
b) Randomly selecting a fruit fly with red eyes. Randomly selecting a fruit fly with dark brown eyes.
c) Randomly selecting a smoker. Randomly selecting a male.
d) Randomly selecting a patient in a treatment Randomly selecting a patient in a control group given no
group given the drug Lipitor. medication.

Question 3 Addition Rule

The data in the table below summarizes information about 985 pedestrian deaths that were caused by accidents involving
vehicles.

1
a) If one pedestrian death is selected at random, what is the probability that the pedestrian was not intoxicated and the
driver was intoxicated? [2]

b) If one pedestrian death is selected at random, what is the probability that the driver was not intoxicated? [2]

c) If one pedestrian death is selected at random, what is the probability that the pedestrian was intoxicated OR the driver
was intoxicated? [2]

d) If one pedestrian death is selected at random, what is the probability that the pedestrian was not intoxicated OR the
driver was not intoxicated? [2]

Question 4 Multiplication Rule

Use the pedestrian death data from Question 3 above.

a) Two pedestrian deaths are randomly selected with replacement, i.e. the first selected pedestrian is replaced, so the second
selection is made from the same pool of 985 deaths. What is the probability that, in both cases, the pedestrian was not
intoxicated and the driver was intoxicated? {Hint : Are the two cases dependent or independent?} [3]

b) Two pedestrian deaths are randomly selected without replacement, i.e. the first selected pedestrian is not replaced, so the
second selection is made from a pool of deaths. What is the probability that, in both cases, the driver was
intoxicated? {Hint : Are the two cases dependent or independent?} [4]

Question 5 Conditional Probability

Use the pedestrian death data from Question 3 above.

a) One pedestrian death is selected at random. Given that the driver was intoxicated, find the probability that the
pedestrian was intoxicated. [4]

{Hint: Let be the event that the driver was intoxicated. Let be the event that the pedestrian was intoxicated. Find
.}

b) One pedestrian death is selected at random. Given that the pedestrian was not intoxicated, find the probability that the
driver was not intoxicated. [4]

Question 6 Risks and Odds

A prospective study of 531 motorcycle riders was conducted. They were followed for two years, and the data below were
collected.

Facial injuries received No facial injuries

received
Helmet Worn 30 83
No Helmet 182 236

2
a) Find and [2 x 3]

b) Find the value of the absolute risk reduction for facial injuries in the Helmet Worn and No Helmet groups. [2]

c) Find the number of motorcycle riders who would need to wear a helmet to prevent one case of facial injuries. [2]

d) Find the relative risk of facial injuries for those in the Helmet Worn group compared to those in the No Helmet
group. Interpret the results. [4]

e) Find the odds ratio for facial injuries for those in the Helmet Worn group compared to those in the No Helmet
group. Interpret the results. [4]

Question 7 Random Variables and Discrete Probability Distributions

Three males with a genetic disorder have one child each. The random variable is the number of children among the
three who inherit the genetic disorder. The probability distribution of is given below. All working must be shown for
this question. Working can be shown in a table.

0 0.4
1 0.3
2 0.2
3 0.1

a) Find the mean . {The mean is also denoted by }. [3]

b) Find the variance . {The variance is also denoted by }. [5]

c) Find the standard deviation of , denoted by . [1]

d) Find the mean and variance of . [4]

Question 8 Discrete Probability Distributions

Clinical trials have shown that the drug Glimepiride significantly reduces blood glucose level in 70% of all diabetic
patients. Five randomly chosen diabetic patients take the drug. Let be the number of patients out of these five whose
blood glucose is significantly reduced.

a) What is the name of the probability distribution of ? [1]

{Hint: We studied only two discrete probability distributions in class, so it must be one of them. Your probability of
guessing correctly is . }

b) Find the probability that exactly two patients out of the five have significant blood glucose reduction. [2]

3
{Hint: You can do the calculations by hand, or use tables in Appendix A of the textbook}.

c) Find the probability that at least one of the patients has significant blood glucose reduction. [3]

{Hint: Consider the complement of this event}.

d) What are the values of and ? [4]

Question 9 Discrete Probability Distributions

Students playing Pokemon Go at the University of the West Indies find that Pokemon appear at a rate of 4 every half-hour.
Let the number of Pokemon that appear in a given half-hour period be .

a) What is the name of the probability distribution of ? [1]

{Hint: We studied only two discrete probability distributions in class. One of them was used in Question 8.}

b) What are the values of the mean and variance of ? [2]

c) Find the probability that exactly one Pokemon appears in the given half-hour period. [2]

d) Find the probability that more than one Pokemon appear in the given half-hour period. [4]

{Hint: Be careful. More than one means . What are the possible values of ? Do these values include 1?}

Question 10 Discrete Probability Distributions

The drug Timolol significantly reduces aqueous humour production in the eye in 4% of all glaucoma patients. One
hundred randomly chosen glaucoma patients are given the drug. Let be the number of patients out of these hundred
whose aqueous humour production is significantly reduced.

a) What is the name of the probability distribution of ? [1]

b) What is the value of the mean of ? [1]

c) We want to find the probability that more than one patient has a significant reduction of aqueous humour production.
However, if we attempt to use the distribution identified in part (a), the calculations become too difficult. (Try it and see).
What distribution can we use to approximate the distribution of ? [1]

d) Using this approximation, find the probability that more than one patient out of the hundred has a significant
reduction of aqueous humour production. [3]

{Hint: The results of previous questions may help you.}

4
Question 11 The Standard Normal Distribution

Consider the example given in class: Thermometers have an average (mean) reading of 0 degrees and a standard
deviation of 1 degree for freezing water. Assume that the readings are normally distributed. One thermometer is
randomly selected. For parts (a), (b) and (c), find the probability that, at the freezing point of water, the reading is:

a) Less than . [1]

b) Between and . [2]

c) Greater than . [2]

d) Find the 67th percentile, . This is the temperature reading that separates the bottom 67% of readings from the top
33%. [2]

{Hint: A sketch of the standard Normal curve may be helpful for each case above. Use table A-2 provided on
myelearning.}

Question 12 Applications of Normal Distributions

The scores on a national examination are normally distributed with mean 70 and standard deviation 10. A students score
is selected at random.

a) Find the probability that the students score is greater than 90. [2]

b) Find the probability that the students score is between 60 and 75. [4]

c) A grade A is awarded to the top 20% of students. Find the minimum score required to be awarded a grade A. [4]

{Hint: Find the mark that separates the bottom 80% of scores from the top 20%.}

Question 13 The Central Limit Theorem

The guests at the Bates Motel spend a mean time of 11.4 minutes each day in the shower. Assume that the shower times
are normally distributed with a standard deviation of 2.6 minutes.

a) Find the percentage of guests who shower for more than 12 minutes a day. [3]

{Hint: This is equivalent to the probability that the shower time for one randomly chosen guest is more than 12 minutes.}

b) There are 84 guests currently staying at the motel. The manager of the motel, Mr. Norman Bates, has installed a system
that can provide enough hot water for the guests, provided that the mean shower time for these 84 guests is less than 12
minutes. Find the probability that there will not be enough hot water. [5]

{Hint: Use the Central Limit Theorem.}

c) Does Mr. Batess system appear to be effective? [1]