Profit or Pauper

ITS ALL IN THE ROLL OF THE DICE!

Dr. Martha Shott

Department of Mathematics and Statistics
 Fun Facts
monopoly = the exclusive ownership or control of a commodity or
services supply or trade

Earliest version of game was developed as educational tool

First published by Parker Brothers on February 6, 1935

Sold in 103 countries and 37 different languages

The (Basic) Rules of the Game
Players take turns in order:
Roll the dice, move indicated
number of spaces

If property is unowned, player may

purchase it and now collects rent
for that property.
The (Basic) Rules of the Game
Rolling doubles once take another turn!

Three consecutive doubles bad news

Once player has all 3 properties of 1

color, she may develop (build houses)
and later hotels in an equally distributed
fashion
The (Basic) Rules of the Game
The game ends when all players
but one are bankrupt

Average game length: 1 - 4

hours

Longest game on record was

1,680 hours
More about JAIL
Monopoly misdemeanors

Landing directly on "Go to Jail

Throwing three consecutive doubles on one turn

Drawing the "Go to Jail" card from either the

Community Chest or Chance deck
More about JAIL
Monopoly parole

Paying a $50 fine

Throwing any type of doubles on one turn (three chances)

Using a Get Out of Jail Free" card from either the

Community Chest or Chance deck
MATH-OPOLY?
First (published) mathematical
treatment by Ian Stewart, Univ. of
Warwick

Any game with dice rolls or card-

drawing can be modeled with math

Monopoly has both, but

...its all in the roll of the dice!

The Math of the Game
Dice rolls occur with easily identified
probabilities

Dice rolls primarily determine movement around

the game board

Dice rolls repeat throughout the game

Matrix algebra can tell us how often certain

board spaces are visited, on average
A Simple Example 3 1

Begin on Location 1
Roll a die:
On an EVEN, move 1 space clockwise
2

On an ODD, move 2 spaces clockwise

Location 0 turns 1 turn 2 turns 5 turns 10 turns

1 1 0 0.5 0.3125 0.333984
2 0 0.5 0.25 0.34375 0.333008
3 0 0.5 0.25 0.34375 0.333008
Translating to Linear Algebra
" is the vector whose
1st entry is the probability of being on Location 1 after n turns
2nd entry is the probability of being on Location 2 after n turns
3rd entry is the probability of being on Location 3 after n turns

In our example, we have

1 0 0.5 0.3125 0.333984

# = 0 ; ) = 0.5 ; , = 0.25 ; . = 0.34375 ; )# = 0.333008
0 0.5 0.25 0.34375 0.333008
Translating to Linear Algebra
is the matrix whose
entry in row i and column j is the probability of moving from Location j
to Location i based on rolling an even or odd number on a die

For us,
0 0.5 0.5
= 0.5 0 0.5
0.5 0.5 0
Translating to Linear Algebra

0 0.5 0.5 1 0
# = 0.5 0 0.5 0 = 0.5 = )
0.5 0.5 0 0 0.5

Probability of landing on Location 2 on Turn 1, given a start at Location 1:

),, = 0.5 1 + 0 0 + 0.5 0 = 0.5

Consider: ) = #, , = ), 8 = ,, , ":) = "

Markov Chains
A probability vector is a vector with nonnegative entries that add up to 1.
A stochastic matrix is a square matrix whose columns are all probability
vectors.
A Markov chain is a sequence (#, ), , ) of probability vectors, along
with a stochastic matrix A so that
) = #, , = ), 8 = ,, , ":) = " .
If #, ), ,, converge to a vector , then is called a steady-state
vector for the Markov chain.
The steady-state vector for a Markov chain is a probability vector so that
= .
Making Monopoly Markovian
40 total board locations = 40 states
** Modify Jail = 42 states only way to
leave jail is through rolling doubles

Start simple: ignore Chance/Community

Chest cards and the 3 consecutive
doubles rule

Probability of moving from one state to

the next now depends only on the roll of
the dice
Making Monopoly Markovian

Starting with GO, number board locations 1 through 40

Note: only possible dice rolls are 2, 3, , 12
So we can only move to 1 of 11 spaces from GO
 Probability of moving 2 spaces: 1/36

1 way to roll a 2
__________________

Dice Rolls 36 total possible rolls

Probability of any roll:

# of ways to get that roll

___________________
Total # of possible rolls
 Probability of moving 5 spaces: 4/36

4 ways to roll a 5
__________________

Dice Rolls 36 total possible rolls

Probability of any roll:

# of ways to get that roll

___________________
Total # of possible rolls
 Roll Probability of Roll
2 1/36
3 2/36
4 3/36
Dice Rolls 5 4/36
6 5/36
Probability of any roll: 7 6/36
8 5/36
# of ways to get that roll 9 4/36
___________________
Total # of possible rolls
10 3/36
11 2/36
12 1/36
 Roll Probability of Roll
2 1/36
3 2/36
4 3/36
Dice Rolls 5 4/36
6 5/36
Probability of any roll: 7 6/36
8 5/36
# of ways to get that roll 9 4/36
___________________
Total # of possible rolls
10 3/36
11 2/36
12 1/36
The Monopoly Stochastic Matrix
Recall: First column of the Stochastic Matrix shows is a vector with
probabilities of moving from State 1 (GO) to the corresponding Row State

) , 8 ? . > @ > . ? 8 , ) A
) = 0 0 0 0 0
8> 8> 8> 8> 8> 8> 8> 8> 8> 8> 8> 8> 8>

29 zeros here

Second column is just a shift of the first, and so on for all 42 columns
(with a few exceptions).
The Monopoly Stochastic Matrix
The Few Exceptions:

3 special rows/columns for JAIL: 1st turn, 2nd turn, 3rd

turn.

Go-to-Jail State acts like a slide to the JAIL (1st turn)

State.
The Monopoly Stochastic Matrix

Once we build our stochastic matrix, we apply it to our initial state vector
repeatedly to determine the long-term probability of landing on any board
location
Long-term probabilities
Board State % Board State %
JAIL 6.533 Reading Railroad 2.21
Tennessee Ave. 2.681 Vermont Ave. 2.209
Free Parking 2.67 Chance 2.208
Chance 2.665 Chance 2.204
St. James Place 2.624 GO 2.203
Ventnor Ave. 2.596 Oriental Ave. 2.202
Water Works 2.594 Boardwalk 2.184
Marvin Gardens 2.591 Luxury Tax 2.157
Atlantic Ave. 2.59 Park Place 2.116
Conjecture as to why these are the
most-visited

Board State %
JAIL 6.533
Tennessee Ave. 2.681
Free Parking 2.67
Chance 2.665
St. James Place 2.624
Ventnor Ave. 2.596
Water Works 2.594
Marvin Gardens 2.591
Atlantic Ave. 2.59
 and why these are the
least-visited.

Board State %
Reading Railroad 2.21
Vermont Ave. 2.209
Chance 2.208
Chance 2.204
GO 2.203
Oriental Ave. 2.202
Boardwalk 2.184
Luxury Tax 2.157
Park Place 2.116
Beyond the Dice
Include 3 consecutive doubles rule

Community Chest or Chance card:

perform the indicated action, then shuffle
the card back into the correct stack.

Get-Out-of-Jail-Free cards are not used

Remain in jail as long as possible (until

third turn or the player roll doubles).
 Stochastic matrix is now
120 x 120
Beyond the Dice !!!
Include 3 consecutive doubles rule

Community Chest or Chance card:

perform the indicated action, then shuffle
the card back into the correct stack.

Get-Out-of-Jail-Free cards are not used

Remain in jail as long as possible (until

third turn or the player roll doubles).
Long-term probabilities
Board State %
JAIL 9.39
Illinois Ave. 3.00
GO 2.92
B&O Railroad 2.89
Free Parking 2.82
Tennessee Ave. 2.82
New York Ave. 2.81
Reading Railroad 2.81
St. James Place 2.68
Most PROFITABLE
Best strategies!
Squares that are reachable from Jail or Chance/Community Chest
Cards are most likely to be visited

The orange property group has the lowest expected break-even

point

The green properties have the highest expected revenue per turn

The dark purple properties are hardly worth buying

Thank you!

Questions?