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FanswaveTurkishflagspriortowhattheorganiserssaidwasafootballmatchagainstterrorisminIstanbul.(APPhoto)
WhatshouldtheMiddleEastdoin2017?
FaisalAlYafai
Follow@FaisalAlYafai
December26,2016 Updated:December27,201609:40AM
Related Ayearthatwontendishow2016issometimesperceived.Ayearof
surprisesbothpoliticallyandculturally,itwillsoonbeconsignedtohistory,
evenastheconsequencesofitsmoststartlingeventstheretakingof
Aleppo,theelectionofDonaldTrumponlybegintobeunderstood.
If2016wasayearofsurprises,2017willbe,intheMiddleEast,ayearof
decisions.Ayearwhengovernmentsintheregionwillhavetomakehard,
binarychoicesandtodosoinaworldwherepowerfulcountrieshave
Russiaseconomyis alsobecomeincreasinglyhardheadedabouttheirpriorities.Themain
weakfearisPutinsonly
weapon
questioninmanycapitalcitieswillbe:whatmattersmore?
WhyPutinsironfist Syriaistheaxisaroundwhichthisquestionwillrevolve.If,asnowseems
policywillnotworkin inevitable,theAssadregimeretrenchesitselfalongthewesternstripfrom
Turkey DamascustoAleppo,manycountrieswillhavetodecidewhatmatters
Dozenskilledin moretothem,opposingabloodyregimeormakingapragmaticalliance.
BaghdadasFrancois ManyofthebiggestMiddleEasternstates,includingTurkeyandEgypt,are
HollandevisitsIraq alreadysignallingtheirintentions.
USneedstorebuild
Turkey,morethanmost,willfaceabinarychoice.Thedayswhenits
tieswithGulfAraballies
asTrumppresidency president,RecepTayyipErdogan,wasvehementlyantiAssadappearto
begins havepassed,forgottenastheSyrianrefugeecrisissettledinlargepartin
TurkishcitiesandKurdishmilitiassawtheirchancetocarveoutastatelet
Nowempowered,Iran alongtheTurkishborder.
willtakeabolder
http://www.thenational.ae/opinion/comment/whatshouldthemiddleeastdoin2017 1/7
1/17/2017 WhatshouldtheMiddleEastdoin2017?|TheNational
approachintheregion Ankarawillthereforehavetochoose:eitheritcanworkwiththeSyrian
regimetohalttheattemptatKurdishstatehoodinnortheastSyriaand
defeatISIL,oritcancontinuetosupportthepatchworkofrebelgroups.
Alreadyitappearstobepreferringtheformerandpublicreactiontothe
shockingvideolastweekofISILmurderingtwoTurkishsoldiersmay
cementthatdecision.
AsimilarquestionwillariseonIran.IfDonaldTrumpcomesintoofficein
WashingtonandismuchharderonIranashisappointmentofJames
MattisasdefencesecretarysuggestsmanyintheGulfwillapplaud.
AyearofMrTrumpmayweakenIran,causingitatfirsttorampupits
proxywarsintheregion,but,eventually,tocoolthemdownasitsfinances
arestretched.Thequestionthenwillbe:whatmattersmore?CanIranbe
tamed,assomeintheGulfwouldprefer,ormustitbeincorporatedin
somecapacity?ThisquestionoverIranisnotgoingaway.Theconditions
foritsaskinghavenotyetmaterialised,but,dependingonwhathappensin
Washingtoninthecomingmonths,theymaysoon.
Thosearethehardquestions.Therewillalsobemucheasierones.On
ISIL,therewillbenoneedforchoices,simplybecausethereisnoroomfor
negotiationwiththegroup.Theonlyquestionwillbehowtobestdegradeit
andhowtoprepareforthenextstageofISILs"jihad",oncetheyare
forcedoutoftheirstrongholds.
Allofthesequestionswillrequirecarefulpolicyandcoordinationamong
neighboursandallies.Therewill,inevitably,betradeoffs.Buttheyalso
ariseatatimeintheMiddleEastwhenothersaroundtheworldaremore
hardheadedintheirpriorities,inparticulartheUnitedStatesandRussia.
ForRussia,2016wasitsfirstfullyearofopenlybackingtheSyrianregime
indeed,thefirsttimeformanyyearsthatithasputsomanyresources
behindagovernmentnotpreviouslypartoftheSovietUnion.Russiasrole
inSyriahasbeendecidedlyhardheaded:ithasignoredinternational
normsanditsstandingintheWestfornarrowpoliticalgain.
ItistooearlytoguesswhatMrTrumpwilldo,buttheindicationsarethat
hewill,too,besimilarlyhardheaded.AmericasfocuswillbeonMosulin
IraqandRaqqainSyriaandlittleelse.DespiteMrTrumpsbelligerence
towardsChina,itseemstheoneregionheisunwillingtopickafightwithis
thisone.
Thathardheadednesswillruboff.Ifthereweredaysoryearsof
idealismintheMiddleEastaftertheArabSpring,theyarenowforgotten.
Syria,LibyaandYemenhavebecomenarrowsecurityproblemstobe
solved,notplacestopractisepostrevolutionarynationbuilding.Themore
expansiverolesthatEgypt,TurkeyandSaudiArabiaonceimaginedfor
themselveswillhavetotakeabackseattosecurityandfinancialstability.
Somewillseethatasacounselofdespair.ButthewarsoftheMiddleEast
haveprofoundlychangedpolicycalculations.Noproblemswith
neighbours,asTurkeysforeignministeroncesuggested,hasgivenwayto
problemseverywhere.
IftheearlyyearsofBarackObamaspresidencywerecharacterisedby
hopeandthepossibilityofchangeintheMiddleEast,thefirstyearsofMr
Trumpspresidencywillmeanretrenchmentandanarrowfocusinthe
regionscapitals.ItisaprofoundironyofhistorythatitisinpartduetoMr
ObamasactionsoverIranandinactionoverSyriathattheregionfinds
itselfinthatposition.
http://www.thenational.ae/opinion/comment/whatshouldthemiddleeastdoin2017 2/7
1/17/2017 WhatshouldtheMiddleEastdoin2017?|TheNational
falyafai@thenational.ae
OnTwitter:@FaisalAlYafai
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