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Change in Private Payrolls: Survey 110k Actual 83 Prior 41
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: Survey ‐130k Actual ‐125 Prior 431
Avg Weekly Hours (All Employees): Survey 34.2 Actual 34.1 Prior 34.2
Change in Private Payrolls
250
231 UBS ‐ Maury Harris
200
JPM ‐ Michael
Feroli
150
Goldman, Sachs
100 83
Median Forecast
50 41 (Bloomberg)
Actual Payrolls
0
April 2010 May 2010 Jun‐10
Well, the report wasn’t a total disaster…so we’ve got that going for us.
• The consensus forecast on Bloomberg for the change in payrolls is ‐130k. Add back the ‐240k
change expected in census payrolls and that nets to +110k permanent jobs. In May, that number was
just 21k, so economists are expecting improvement. But the markets appear to be set up for something
worse, so a result which is “weaker than expected” may not tank the markets, especially if it is not much
weaker than the consensus. – FTN
• Yesterday, we missed a story in the WSJ citing the top Democrats on the President’s deficit
reduction panel saying the only way to tackle the long‐term structural deficit problem is to cut spending.
Tax increases, they say, will not work. This is noteworthy mostly because it appears contrary to the
President’s philosophy. The officials argue that regardless of where tax rates have been set in the past,
revenues have never strayed far from 20% of GDP. Hence, they say, spending must be reduced to 21% of
GDP to prevent a budgetary crisis. They recommended raising the retirement age as the easiest way to
achieve this goal, as it would reduce Medicare and Social Security costs without sacrificing quality of life
for the most needy recipients. (Those too old to work.) – FTN – This is how Greece responded to similar
proposals.
• Gold fell $40 yesterday, the biggest drop in 5 months. The WSJ cites traders who pointed to a
surge in the euro through 1.25 on optimism about bank stress tests as the catalyst for the drop. Last
night, the Journal says investors started having doubts about the accuracy of European bank stress tests
after a German banking official said the EU does not have the authority to force banks to divulge
information. Gold is up $12 this morning, though the euro is little changed at 1.2507. – In case you were
wondering what a drop in gold might mean for equities (i.e. the correlation), the answer is: toss a coin.
Correlation of Spot Gold and S&P 500 (R2 = .005)
• GE – the company backs away from comments made by CEO Immelt in an FT interview ‐ GE CEO
Jeffrey Immelt told the FT that it is getting harder for foreign companies to do business in China, and
that the Obama administration hasn't done as much as its predecessors to develop ties to the business
community. WSJ/FT
Have a nice holiday weekend