Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
University of Kashmir
Definitions
Experience – what we have done and what has happened in past in a specific
area of work
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Data, Information and Systems
– Data
– Information
• Data in relationships
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Data, Information and Systems
Data Manipulation
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Why Information Systems
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What Is an Information System?
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Systems
Generating Information
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Characteristics of Information
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Figure 1.2 Characteristics of useful information 9
Why Information Systems
FEEDBACK
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Why Information Systems
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Information Needs of a Shopkeeper
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Information Needs of a Shopkeeper
Sales trends
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Information Needs of a Shopkeeper
Whether to diversify
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Types of Information
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SYSTEM
Input: Involves capturing and assembling elements that enter the system to be
processed. For example, raw materials, energy, data, and human effort must be
secured and organized for processing.
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SYSTEM
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System
System
Environment
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System
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System Characteristics
The system that has the ability to change itself or its environment in
order to survive is an adaptive system
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Types of System
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Types of System
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Types of System
Post Office
Elementary school
Grocery store
Farm
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Types of System
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System
List possible kinds of feedback for the systems in the previous question.
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Information Systems
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Information Systems
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Information Systems?
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WHY INFORMATION SYSTEMS?
Major Business Functions
Manufacturing
Finance
Accounting
Human resources
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MIS in Marketing
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MAJOR TYPES OF SYSTEMS IN ORGANIZATIONS
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MAJOR TYPES OF SYSTEMS IN ORGANIZATIONS
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MIS in Manufacturing
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MAJOR TYPES OF SYSTEMS IN ORGANIZATIONS
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MAJOR TYPES OF SYSTEMS IN ORGANIZATIONS
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MAJOR TYPES OF SYSTEMS IN ORGANIZATIONS
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MIS in Finance
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MAJOR TYPES OF SYSTEMS IN ORGANIZATIONS
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MAJOR TYPES OF SYSTEMS IN ORGANIZATIONS
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MIS in HR
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MAJOR TYPES OF SYSTEMS IN ORGANIZATIONS
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MAJOR TYPES OF SYSTEMS IN ORGANIZATIONS
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MAJOR TYPES OF SYSTEMS IN ORGANIZATIONS
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Key Elements of An Organization
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IT/Tools for Managers
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IS & Organizations
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TOWARD THE DIGITAL FIRM
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Information Sytems
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Major Types of Systems
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MAJOR TYPES OF SYSTEMS IN ORGANIZATIONS
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MAJOR TYPES OF SYSTEMS IN ORGANIZATIONS
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MAJOR TYPES OF SYSTEMS IN ORGANIZATIONS
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MAJOR TYPES OF SYSTEMS IN ORGANIZATIONS
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MAJOR TYPES OF SYSTEMS IN ORGANIZATIONS
Knowledge level
Inputs : Design specs
Processing : Modeling
Outputs : Designs, graphics
Users : Technical staff and professionals
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MAJOR TYPES OF SYSTEMS IN ORGANIZATIONS
Management level
Inputs : High-volume data
Processing : Simple models
Outputs : Summary reports
Users : Middle managers
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MAJOR TYPES OF SYSTEMS IN ORGANIZATIONS
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MAJOR TYPES OF SYSTEMS IN ORGANIZATIONS
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MAJOR TYPES OF SYSTEMS IN ORGANIZATIONS
Management level
Inputs : Low/High volume data
Processing : Interactive
Outputs : Decision analysis
Users : Professionals, Staff
Example: Forecasting
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MAJOR TYPES OF SYSTEMS IN ORGANIZATIONS
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MAJOR TYPES OF SYSTEMS IN ORGANIZATIONS
Strategic level
Inputs : Aggregate data
Processing : Interactive
Outputs : Projections
Users : Senior managers
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MAJOR TYPES OF SYSTEMS IN ORGANIZATIONS
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MAJOR TYPES OF SYSTEMS IN ORGANIZATIONS
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Management Information Systems 8/e
Chapter 2 Information Systems in the Enterprise
ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS
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Management Information Systems 8/e
Chapter 2 Information Systems in the Enterprise
ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS
to coordinate work
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Management Information Systems 8/e
Chapter 2 Information Systems in the Enterprise
ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS
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Management Information Systems 8/e
Chapter 2 Information Systems in the Enterprise
ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS
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Management Information Systems 8/e
Chapter 2 Information Systems in the Enterprise
ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS
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Management Information Systems 8/e
Chapter 2 Information Systems in the Enterprise
ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS
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Management Information Systems 8/e
Chapter 2 Information Systems in the Enterprise
ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS
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Management Information Systems 8/e
Chapter 2 Information Systems in the Enterprise
ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS
Enterprise Applications
Enterprise systems
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Management Information Systems 8/e
Chapter 2 Information Systems in the Enterprise
ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS
Within the business: There are functions, each having its uses of
information systems
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Management Information Systems 8/e
Chapter 2 Information Systems in the Enterprise
ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS
Figure 2-13
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Management Information Systems 8/e
Chapter 2 Information Systems in the Enterprise
ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS
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Management Information Systems 8/e
Chapter 2 Information Systems in the Enterprise
ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS
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Management Information Systems 8/e
Chapter 2 Information Systems in the Enterprise
ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS
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Management Information Systems 8/e
Chapter 2 Information Systems in the Enterprise
ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS
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Management Information Systems 8/e
Chapter 2 Information Systems in the Enterprise
ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS
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Management Information Systems 8/e
Chapter 2 Information Systems in the Enterprise
ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS
Bullwhip Effect: Information about the demand for the product gets
distorted as it passes from one entity to next
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Management Information Systems 8/e
Chapter 2 Information Systems in the Enterprise
ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS
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Management Information Systems 8/e
Chapter 2 Information Systems in the Enterprise
ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS
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Management Information Systems 8/e
Chapter 2 Information Systems in the Enterprise
ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS
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Management Information Systems 8/e
Chapter 2 Information Systems in the Enterprise
ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS
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Management Information Systems 8/e
Chapter 2 Information Systems in the Enterprise
ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS
Collaborative Commerce
Uses digital technologies to enable multiple organizations to
collaboratively design, develop, build, move, and manage products
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Management Information Systems 8/e
Chapter 2 Information Systems in the Enterprise
ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS
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Management Information Systems 8/e
Chapter 2 Information Systems in the Enterprise
ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS
Industrial Networks
Private Industrial Networks
Web-enabled networks
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Management Information Systems 8/e
Chapter 2 Information Systems in the Enterprise
ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS
Manages all ways used by firms to deal with existing and potential new
customers
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Management Information Systems 8/e
Chapter 2 Information Systems in the Enterprise
ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS
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Management Information Systems 8/e
Chapter 2 Information Systems in the Enterprise
ENTERPRISE APPLICATIONS
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Management Information Systems 8/e
Chapter 2 Information Systems in the Enterprise
Creating knowledge
Sharing knowledge
Distributing knowledge
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The End
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Technical Feasibility
Economical Feasibility
Operational Feasibility
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Technical Feasibility
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Economical Feasibility
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Operational Feasibility
Middle Management
Top Management
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Reports of MIS
Exception Reports.
Push Reporting.
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Information Technology and MIS
Hardware.
Software.
Communication Technology.
10
Computer Hardware-------
The physical equipment
Secondary storage
Communication •Magnetic disk
Devices
•Optical disk
•Magnetic tape
Central Buses
Processing Unit Primary Storage
Computer
Software
Application System
Software Software
General purpose
Application-Specific System Management System Development
Application
Programs Programs Programs
Programs
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Communication Technology
• Coaxial cable.
• Fiber-optic cable.
• Wireless transmission: This includes:-
• Microwave Transmission.
• Satellite Transmission.
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Using Communication Technology for Business
Solutions
The Internet is revolutionizing communications by providing a
worldwide network linking business, government, and scientific and
educational organizations to individuals. Internet use falls into several
major areas, including:
• Chat.
• Electronic Commerce.
• Mobile Commerce.
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Using Communication Technology for Business Solutions
Intranets
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Using Communication Technology for Business Solutions
Extranets
These are privately owned networks that are extended to
authorized users outside the company e.g. authorized buyers,
retailers, distributors, customers. They are often used for
collaborating with other companies for:
1. Supply Chain Management.
2. Customer Relationship Management.
3. Product design and development.
4. Training efforts.
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Enterprise application architecture presenting an overview of the major
cross-functional enterprise applications and their interrelationships.
Suppliers
Selling. Distribution.
Partner Relationship Management.
Sourcing. Procurement
Employees
Partners
Internal Business Processes.
Customer Relationship
Management.
Marketing. Sales. Service
Customers
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Supply Chain Management
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Enterprise Resource Planning
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Customer Relationship Management
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Knowledge Management
• Capturing/Acquisition of data/information
• Knowledge Storage
• Disseminating/Sharing of Knowledge
Figure
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Capturing/Acquisition of Data/Information
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Capturing/Acquisition of Data/Information
Database
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Capturing/Acquisition of Data/Information
Data Warehouse
Search Engines
These are huge databases of web page files that have been
assembled automatically by machine.
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Transformation of Info. into Knowledge
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Transformation of Info. into Knowledge
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Transformation of Info. into Knowledge contd.
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Info/Knowledge Storage
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Info/Knowledge Dissemination
• Teleconferencing, Data-conferencing
• Videoconferencing
• Groupware, and
• Intranets.
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Decision Making
2009
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DECISION MAKING
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Decision making is a process of choosing among alternative
courses of action for the purpose of attaining a goal or goals.
(1) intelligence
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INTELLIGENCE PHASE
Organizational objectives
Search and scanning
Simplification/Assumption
Data collection
Reality Problem identification
Problem ownership
Problem classification
Problem statement
Problem statement
DESIGN PHASE
Validation of the model Formulate a model
Set criteria for choice
Search for alternatives
Predict and measure outcomes
Alternatives
CHOICE PHASE
Success Verification, testing of proposed solution
Solution to the model
Sensitivity analysis
Selection of best alternative (s)
Plan for implementation
Implementation
of solution Solution
Failure
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1. Intelligence phase
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2. Design phase
• Formulate a model
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3. Choice phase
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4. Implementation phase
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Source: Based on Sprague, R.H., Jr., “A Framework for the Development of DSS.” MIS Quarterly, Dec. 1980, Fig. 5, p. 13.
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Decision Support Systems
Intelligence Phase
– Automatic
• Data Mining
– Expert systems, CRM, neural networks
– Manual
• OLAP
• KMS
– Reporting
• Routine and ad hoc
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Decision Support Systems
Design Phase
– Use of KMS
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Decision Support Systems
Choice Phase
– What-if analysis
– Goal-seeking analysis
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Decision Support Systems
Implementation Phase
– Improved communications
– Collaboration
– Training
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TYPES OF DECISIONS
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TYPES OF DECISIONS
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TYPES OF DECISION
On the basis of the nature of the decision:-
1)Structured decision:-It‘s the one for which a well defined decision making
procedure exists.
2)Unstructured decision:- it is the one for which all the three decision phases
are unstructured.
3)Semi structured decision:- In this type one or two phases are structured and
the others are not.
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On the basis of scope of the decision itself.
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Combination of various types of Decisions
Structured /operational
Structured / tactical
Structured/ strategic
Semi-structured/ operational.
Semi-structured/ tactical
Semi-structured / strategic
Unstructured/ operational
Unstructured/ tactical
Unstructured/ strategic
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Structured/Operational: Decide how to cut a log into boards in order
to minimize wastage.
The design phases likewise fixed; the products that the mill produces
and hence the acceptable types of cuts.
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Structured /Tactical: Choosing the way in which to depreciate
corporate assets.
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Semistructured/Operational: Deciding to accept or reject an applicant
to a selective collage.
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Semitructured /Strategic: Deciding whether or not to enter a new
market. Sales projections, marketplace growth data, development cost
estimates and marketing expenses forecasts can combine to provide a
profit-and-loss forecast. However there are countless factors that could
make it totally worthless. Judgment of experienced managers is
needed for the final step.
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Unstructured /Tactical: Hiring decisions typically fall into this area,
especially if the job to be filled is above level where aptitude and
ability tests can be relied on as performance indicators.
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Decision Support Frameworks
Type of Control
Uncontrollable
variables
Mathematical
Decision variables Result variables
relationships
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Examples of the Components of Models.
Decision Result Uncontrollable
Area Variables Variables Variables and Parameters
Financial investment Investment alternatives and Total profit Inflation rate
amounts Rate of return (ROI) Prime rate
How long to invest Earnings per share Competition
When to invest Liquidity level
Marketing Advertising budget Market share Customers' income
Where to advertise Customer satisfaction Competitors' actions
Manufacturing What and how much to Total cost Machine capacity
produce Quality level Technology
Inventory levels Employee satisfaction Materials prices
Compensation programs
Accounting Use of computers Data processing cost Computer technology
Audit schedule Error rate Tax rates
Legal requirements
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Example
Uncontrollable
variables
constraints on labour
and budget
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Principle of choice is a decision regarding the acceptability of a
solution approach.
• Normative models
– chosen alternative is the best of all possible alternatives
– suboptimisation
– optimisation models
Generating alternatives
– automatically by the model
– by using heuristics
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Predicting the outcomes of alternatives
1. Decision making under certainty
Decision maker knows exactly what the outcome of
each course of action will be - deterministic environment.
2. Decision making under risk
Each alternative has several possible outcomes,
each with a given probability of occurrence
- probabilistic or stochastic decision situation.
3. Decision making under uncertainty
Several outcomes are possible for each course of action,
their probabilities are not known.
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Measuring outcomes
The value of the an alternative is judged in terms of
goal attainment.
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Search
• Analytical techniques
– mathematical formulae
– algorithm: step-by-step search process
• Blind search
– complete enumeration
– incomplete search
• Heuristic search (derived from the Greek word for discovery)
rules guide the search process
Normative models:
– analytical techniques
– complete, exhaustive enumeration
Descriptive models:
– blind search
– using heuristics
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Evaluation
• Multiple goals
– Today's management systems want to achieve
multiple goals simultaneously.
– Goals are usually partially or totally conflicting.
• Sensitivity analysis
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Literature:
1. (a) Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, Fifth Edition
E.Turban, Jay Aronson,
Prentice Hall, 1998.
(b) Decision Support Systems and Expert Systems,
Management Support Systems, E.Turban, Fourth Edition,
Prentice Hall, 1995.
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SUMMARY
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Models
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3. Optimisation
model generates an optimal solution
Limitations:
– works if the problem is structured and deterministic
4. Heuristics
Informal knowledge of how to solve problems efficiently and
effectively, how to plan steps in solving a complex problem,
how to improve performance, and so forth.
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Modelling Process
1. Trial-and-error
experimentation on the real system
Not appropriate if:
– too many alternatives to explore
– the cost of making errors is very high
– the environment keeps changing
2. Simulation
assume the appearance of the characteristics of reality
Problems:
– no guarantee that the solution is optimal one
– professional development
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Definition of DSS
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Definition of DSS
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Components of DSS
Knowledge-based
subsystems
User interface
Manager (user)
Organizational KB
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Components of DSS
Data management subsystem
The data management subsystem includes a data base, which contains
relevant data for the situation and is managed by software call the database
management system (DBMS) .the data management subsystem can be
interconnected with the corporate data warehouse, a repository for
corporate relevant decision making data.
Model management subsystem
This is software package that includes financial, statistical, management
science, or other quantitative models that provide the system analytical
capabilities and appropriate software management. Modeling languages in
building custom models are also included, this software is often called a
model base management system (MBMS). This component can be
connected to corporate or external storage of models.
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Components of DSS
Knowledge based management subsystem
The user communicates with and commands the DSS through this
subsystem. The user is considered part of the system. Researchers assert that
some of unique contributions of DSS are derived from the intensive
interaction between the computer and the decision maker.
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Internal data
THE DATA MANAGEMENT SUBSYSTEM s ources
External
data Finance Marketing Production Personal Other
Source
Extraction
Private personal
Organizational data
knowledge base
Decision support
database
Corporate data
warehouse
Query
Facility
Database management
System Interface
oRetrieval management
oInquiry
oUpdate
oReport generation
oDelete
Data directory Model management
Knowledge-based
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THE DATA MANAGEMENT SUBSYSTEM
DSS database
Data directory.
Query facility.
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THE DATABASE
A database is a collection of interrelated data organized to meet the needs
and struc-ture of an organization and can be used by more than one person
for more than one ap-plication
The data in the DSS database are extracted from internal and external data
sources, as well as from personal data belonging to one or more Users.
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DATA ORGANISATION
In small ad hoc DSS, data can be entered directly into models some times
extracted directly from larger databases.
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EXTRACTION
To create a DSS database or a data warehouse it is often necessary to capture
data from several sources. This operation is called extraction.
The data for the warehouse are extracted from internal and external sources.
The extraction process is frequently managed by a DBMS.
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DATABASE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM
Most DSS are built with a standard commercial relational DBMS that
provides capabilities such as it captures or extracts data for inclusion in a
DSS database ,it updates (adds, deletes, edits, changes) data records and
files, retrieves data ,provides data security etc.
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THE QUERY FACILITY
Query facility is necessary to access, manipulate, and query data.
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THE DIRECTORY
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General Functions of the DBMS
Data Definition
Data Manipulation
Provides the user with a query language to interact with the database
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Data Integrity
Assists in the control of erroneous data entry based on the defined integrity
constraints
Access Control
Concurrency Control
The availability of data, combined with the tools that transform data
into usable information, empowers end users to make quick, informed
decisions that can make the difference between success and failure in the
global economy.
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Structure of Model Management System
Models (model base)
•Strategic, tactical, operational
•Statistical, financial, marketing,
Model directory
mgt. science, accounting etc
•Model building blocks
Model execution,
integration, and command
Model base management processor
•Modeling commands : creation
•Maintenance: update
•Database interface
•Modeling language
Creates models easily and quickly, either from scratch or from the building
blocks
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Functions of the MBMS
Tracks model data and application use
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USER INTERFACE MANAGEMENT SYSTEM
Data management Knowledge- based Model management
and DBMS subsystem and MBMS
User Interface
Management System
(UIMS)
Language Processor
Input Output
Action Display
Languages Languages
Printers, plotters
Users
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General Functions of the DSS Interface
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General Functions of the DSS Interface
variety of formats included menu driven, question/answer, procedural
command language, or natural command language
Allows for detailed report definition and generation by the DSS user
Allows for the creation of forms, tables, and graphics for data output
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CHARACTERISTICS OF DSS
DSS provides support for decision makers mainly in semi-structured and
unstructured situations by bringing together human judgment and
computerized information.
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CHARACTERISTICS OF DSS
DSS are adaptive over time. DSS are flexible and so users can add, delete,
combine, change or rearrange basic elements.
DSS attempt to prove the effectiveness of decision making rather than its
efficiency.
The decision maker has complete control over all steps of the decision
making process in solving a problem. A DSS specifically aims to support
and not to replace the decision maker.
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CHARACTERISTICS OF DSS
End users should be able to construct and modify simple systems by
themselves. Larger systems can be built with assistance from information
system (IS) specialists.
A DSS usually utilizes models for analyzing decision making situations. The
modeling capability enables experimenting with different strategies under
different configurations.
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Benefits of DSS Use
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Limitations of DSS Use
1. Text-oriented DSS
2. Database-oriented DSS
3. Spreadsheet-oriented DSS
4. Solver-oriented DSS
5. Rule-oriented DSS
6. Compound DSS
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Alters' Classification of DSS
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Alter’s Classification of DSS
Data-Driven DSS
Data-Driven DSS take the massive amounts of data available through the
company's TPS and MIS systems and cull from it useful information which
executives can use to make more informed decisions.
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Alter’s Classification of DSS
Model-Driven DSS
Very large databases are usually not needed for Model-Driven DSS.
Primarily used for the typical "what-if" analysis. That is, "What if we
increase production of our products and decrease the shipment time?"
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DSS Classifications
1. Text-oriented DSS
2. Database-oriented DSS
3. Spreadsheet-oriented DSS
4. Solver-oriented DSS
5. Rule-oriented DSS
6. Compound DSS
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Holsapple and Winston Classification
In this type of DSS the database plays a major role in the DSS structure.
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Holsapple and Winston Classification
SPREADSHEET ORIENTED DSS
Spreadsheet is a modeling language that allows the user to write models to
execute DSS analysis.
Tools- Statistical packages, linear programming package (Solver), financial
and management science models.
The most popular tools used are Excel and Lotus 1-2-3.
COMPOUND DSS
It is a hybrid system that includes two or more of the fine basic structures
explained above. It can be built by using a set of independent DSS, each
specializing in one area.
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Other DSS Classification
Personal
Group
Organizational
Custom VS Readymade
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DSS Classification
INSTITUTIONAL DSS
Portfolio Management
ADHOC DSS
Deals with specific problems that are usually neither anticipated nor
recurring. Adhoc decisions often involve strategic planning issues
sometimes management control problems.
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Knowledge-Driven DSS
Knowledge-Driven DSS
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Document-Driven DSS
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Communications-Driven and Group DSS
Group Decision Support Systems (GDSS) came first, but now a broader
category of Communications-Driven DSS or groupware can be identified.
A Group DSS is a hybrid Decision Support System that emphasizes both the
use of communications and decision models.
judgment is essential.
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Knowledge Management
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Knowledge Management
Ancient
Helps organizations
Identify
Select
Organize
Disseminate
Transfer
Experience – what we have done and what has happened in past in a specific
area of work
Learning
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Khan
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Knowledge Types
Explicit knowledge
– Codified
– Leaky knowledge
Tacit knowledge
– Highly personalized
Rafi
– Difficult to formalize
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Knowledge Types
Deep knowledge
INFORMATION
Processed Relevant and
actionable
DATA KNOWLEDGE
Knowledge capture
Knowledge access
Knowledge archiving
Create knowledge
Capture knowledge
Refine knowledge
Store knowledge
Manage knowledge
Disseminate knowledge
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Cyclic Model of KM
Create Knowledge
Create Knowledge
Capture
Knowledge
Create Knowledge
Capture
Knowledge
Create Knowledge
Capture
Knowledge
Capture
Knowledge
Capture
Knowledge
Store
Knowledge
Capture
Knowledge
Store
Knowledge
Capture
Knowledge
Store
Knowledge
Manage
Knowledge
Capture
Knowledge
Store
Knowledge
Manage
Knowledge
Capture
Knowledge
Disseminate
Store
Knowledge
Knowledge
Manage
Knowledge
Capture
Knowledge
Disseminate
Store
Knowledge
Knowledge
Manage
Knowledge
Cost savings
Better performance
Demonstrated success
Competitive Advantage
Email or messaging
Document management
Search engines
Enterprise information portal
Data warehouse
Groupware
Workflow management
Web-based training
Others
Knowledge Acquisition
Techniques
The Business School
University of Kashmir
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Knowledge Acquisition
• Production Rule
• Frames
• Semantic Network
IF-THEN
Examples
– Conclusion, IF condition
Graphical
depictions
Node represents an
Entity & link
represents
Association
Hierarchical
relationships
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Inferencing
–Forward
–Backward
Forward Chaining
Forward chaining is a data-driven approach . We start from available
information as it becomes available or from a basic idea, and then we try to
draw conclusions.
Backward chaining
Backward chaining is a goal-driven approach in which you start from an
expectation of what is going to happen (hypothesis) and then seek evidence
that supports (or contradicts) your expectation.
R5:IF a person wants to invest in growth stocks then the stock should be IBM
– R1: IF A and C, THEN E
– R2: IF D and C,THEN F
– R3: IF B and E, THEN F
– R4: IF B, THEN C
– R5: IF F, THEN G
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Forward Chaining
Experts
• Faster Solutions
• Recognize Patterns
Expertise
very specific and limited domain of human expertise are called expert
systems
User
User
Interface
Inference
Engine
Knowledge Base
User Environment
• Knowledge base
• Inference Mechanism
domain experts
DENDRAL project
– Applied knowledge or rule-based reasoning commands
– Deduced likely molecular structure of compounds
MYCIN
– Rule-based system for diagnosing bacterial infections
XCON
– Rule-based system to determine optimal systems
configuration
Credit analysis
– Ruled-based systems for commercial lenders
Pension fund adviser
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Applications
Finance
– Insurance evaluation, credit analysis, tax planning, financial planning
and reporting, performance evaluation
Data processing
– Systems planning, equipment maintenance, vendor evaluation, network
management
Marketing
– Customer-relationship management, market analysis, product planning
Human resources
– HR planning, performance evaluation, scheduling, pension management,
legal advising
Manufacturing
– Production planning, quality management, product design, plant site
selection, equipment maintenance and repair
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Benefits of Expert Systems
Increased outputs
Increased productivity
Decreased decision-making time
Increased process and product quality
Reduced downtime
Capture of scarce expertise
Flexibility
Ease of complex equipment operation
Elimination of expensive monitoring equipment
Operation in hazardous environments
Access to knowledge and help desks
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Benefits of Expert Systems
Provides training
Rapid feedback
Facilitate communications
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Objective
What a data warehouse is, how data for it are prepared, and how it is
implemented
Operational Data
– Mostly stored in relational database
– Optimized to support transactions representing daily operations
DSS Data
– Give tactical and strategic business meaning to operational data
– Differs from operational data in following three main areas:
• Time span
• Granularity
• Dimensionality
• Subject orientation: data is organized based on how the users refer to it.
• Integrated: all inconsistencies regarding naming convention and value
representations are removed.
• Non-volatile: data is stored in read-only format and do not change over
time.
• Time Variant: data are not current but normally time-series.
• Summarized: operational data are mapped into a decision-usable
format.
• Large Volume: time-series datasets are normally quite large.
• Not Normalized: DW data can, and often is, redundant.
• Metadata: data about data is stored.
• Data Sources: internal and external unintegrated operational systems.
Extract/Summarize Data
External
Data
OLAP tools
ETL Routine
Operational (Extract/Transform/Load) Data
Database(s) Warehouse Data Mining Tools
Ad-hoc Queries
Independent
Data Mart
Reporting Tools
Monitoring/
Fig. Data warehouse process model
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Data Warehousing Benefits
Increase in knowledge worker productivity
Supports all decision makers‘ data requirements
Provide ready access to critical data
Insulates operation databases from adhoc processing
Provides high-level summary information
Provides drill down capabilities
Yields
– Improved business knowledge
– Competitive advantage
– Enhances customer service and satisfaction
– Facilitates decision making
– Help streamline business processes
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The Data Mart
Data mart
Data warehouse data are snapshot data captured at given point in time
Data warehouse data are mainly read-only with periodic batch updates
from operational data
Data warehouse contains data with several levels of detail: current detail
data, old detail data, lightly summarized data, and highly summarized
data
Generating queries
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Online Analytical Processing
30 July
Fruit
Fresh Produce Vegetables 15 August
15 Sept
Dairy
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Fruit July
Fresh Produce Vegetables 15 August
15 Sept
Dairy
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Fruit July
Fresh Produce Vegetables 15 August
15 Sept
Dairy
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Fruit July
Fresh Produce Vegetables 15 August
15 Sept
Dairy
2 4 1 1 21-30 sept
3 3 4 2 10-20 sept
1st-10 sept
2 1 3 4
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Fresh Produce 60 82 63 59 July
Tinned Food 30 84 79 64 August
Toiletries 50 15 46 73 Sept
30
Fruit July
Fresh Produce Vegetables 15 August
15 Sept
Dairy
• Data Warehousing
• Microsoft SQL Server 2000 Data Transformation Service
• Oracle 9i Warehouse Builder
• IBM Red Brick Warehouse, and DB2
• NCR/Teradata
• SAS Data Warehousing (Warehouse Administrator)
• OLAP
• Cognos PowerPlay
• Business Objects Analytics
• Microstrategy 7i
• Microsoft SQL Server 2000 Analysis Service
+ MDX query language for decision support
+ Microsoft Data Analyzer
• Oracle 9i OLAP
Data Warehouse, OLAP, and Data Mining solutions are sometimes listed
under the title ‗Business Intelligence‘ (BI) software.
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Knowledge Discovery in Databases (KDD)
• KDD is the search for relationships and global patterns that exist in
large databases but are `hidden' among the vast amount of data, such
as a relationship between patient data and their medical diagnosis.
These relationships represent valuable knowledge about the database
and the objects in the database
Selection:
Extraction of the data from a database that is relevant to the
data mining analysis.
Preprocessing:
Ensuring that values have a uniform meaning, eliminating
missing values in the data, and inaccurate (inconsistent) data.
Data Transformation:
Converting the data into a two-dimensional table and
eliminating unwanted fields so the results are valid.
Data mining:
The extraction of patterns from the data using by an
appropriate set of algorithms.
Interpretation:
The transformation of the identified patterns into knowledge
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KDD PROCESS
– so much data, it cannot be all stored -- analysis has to be done ―on the
fly‖, on streaming data
Commercial databases:
Web
– www.usatoday.com/tech/news/2007-03-05-data_N.htm
3. AT&T ~ 94 TB
www.wintercorp.com/VLDB/2005_TopTen_Survey/TopTenWinners_2005.asp
Science
Business
Web:
Government
Customer Tasks:
– attrition prediction
– targeted marketing:
– credit-risk
– fraud detection
Industries
Task:
Note: People who have the best credit don‘t need the loans, and people
with worst credit are not likely to repay. Bank‘s best customers are in the
middle
Mortgage and credit card proliferation are the results of being able to
successfully predict if a person is likely to default on a loan
Securities Fraud
Phone fraud
What if NSA program finds one real suspect for 1,000 false leads ?
1,000,000 false leads?
Machine Visualization
Learning
Data Mining and
Knowledge Discovery
Statistics Databases
Statistics:
– more theory-based
– more focused on testing hypotheses
Machine learning
– more heuristic(experience-based techniques that help in
problem solving, learning and discovery)
– focused on improving performance of a learning agent
– also looks at real-time learning and robotics – areas not part of
data mining
Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery
– integrates theory and heuristics
– focus on the entire process of knowledge discovery, including
data cleaning, learning, and integration and visualization of
results
Distinctions are fuzzy
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Data mining
Many Definitions…
– A short one…
Search for Valuable Information in Large Volumes of Data.
– A long one…
Exploration & Analysis, by Automatic or Semi-Automatic Means,
of Large Quantities of Data in order to Discover Meaningful
Patterns & Rules.
The transformed data is used in the data mining step. It is in this step that
the actual search for patterns of interest is performed.
– Analyze data
Many approaches:
Statistics,
Decision Trees,
Neural Networks,
...
Given a database of 100,000 names, which persons are the least likely to
default on their credit cards?
Client/server architecture
End-user miner empowered by data drills and other power query tools with
little or no programming skills
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Difference between OLAP & Data Minig
OLAP is part of the spectrum of decision support tools. Traditional query and
report tools describe what is in a database. OLAP goes further; it‘s used to
answer why certain things are true. The user forms a hypothesis about a
relationship and verifies it with a series of queries against the data. For
example, an analyst might want to determine the factors that lead to loan
defaults. He or she might initially hypothesize that people with low
incomes are bad credit risks and analyze the database with OLAP to verify
(or disprove) this assumption. If that hypothesis were not borne out by the
data, the analyst might then look at high debt as the determinant of risk. If
the data did not support this guess either, he or she might then try debt
and income together as the best predictor of bad credit risks.
Data mining , rather than verify hypothetical patterns, it uses the data itself to
uncover such patterns. It is essentially an inductive process.
For example, suppose the analyst who wanted to identify the risk factors for
loan default were to use a data mining tool. The data mining tool might
discover that people with high debt and low incomes were bad credit risks (as
above), but it might go further and also discover a pattern the analyst did not
think to try, such as that age is also a determinant of risk.
Many organizations are using data mining to help manage all phases of the
customer life cycle, including acquiring new customers, increasing revenue
from existing customers, and retaining good customers.
Retail/Marketing
Identify buying patterns from customers
Medicine
Characterise patient behaviour to predict office visits
Medical applications are another fruitful area: data mining can be used to
predict the effectiveness of surgical procedures, medical tests or
medications.
Pharmaceutical firms are mining large databases of chemical compounds
and of genetic material to discover substances that might be candidates for
development as agents for the treatments of disease.
Banking
Transportation
Four phases
– Planning
– Analysis
– Design
– Implementation
Cyclical
Waterfall model
Define requirements
Manage change
Involve users
Document everything
Incomplete requirements
Unrealistic expectations
New technologies
– Portfolio management
– Web enabled
Parallel Development
– Multiple development on separate systems (Design & Implementation
Phases)
– Database, Model base, UI and Knowledge can be developed in parallel
RAD
– Quick development allowing fast, but limited functionality
– Methods of RAD
• Phased development
– Sequential serial development (Break system into Pieces)
• Prototyping ( Analysis, Design & Implementation repeatedly)
– Rapid development of portions of projects for user input and
modification
– Small working model or may become functional part of final
system
• Throwaway prototyping
– Pilot test or simple development platforms
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Tools
Testing and quality assurance tools - Red Views WebLoad, Load Runner,
Rational RequisitePro, SilkPerformer
Short steps
– Planning
– Analysis
– Design
– Prototype
Immediate user feedback
Iterative
– In development of prototype
Define requirements
Manage change
Involve users
Document everything
Incomplete requirements
Unrealistic expectations
New technologies
– Portfolio management
– Web enabled
Used for:
– Speedy development
Advantages Disadvantages
– User and management – Changing requirements
involvement – May not have thorough
– Short user-reaction understanding of benefits
time(Feedback from user) and costs
– Short intervals between – Poorly tested
iterations – Dependencies, security,
– Low cost & Short and safety may be ignored
development time – High uncertainty
– Improved user – Problem may get lost
understanding of system
– Reduction in quality
– Higher costs due to
multiple productions
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Change Management
Crucial to DSS
People resistant to change
Examine cause of change
May require organizational culture shift
Lewin-Schein change theory steps
– Unfreeze
• Create awareness of need for change
• People support what they help create
– Move
• Develop new methods and behaviors
• Create and maintain momentum
– Refreeze
• Reinforce desired changes
• Establish stable environment
Hardware
Software
– Prices fluctuate
Microstrategy 8
Business Object XI