KansrekeningEngelseversie

EentoetsKansrekeningenStatistiek

Exercise1.
Sarahisplayingagameofcardswithherfriends.Sheisabouttodrawacardfromthedeckof
cards.Shewillwinthegameifatleastoneofthefollowingtwoeventshappens.A:shedrawsan
ace B:shedraws"hearts".Otherwiseshewilllosethegame.HowcantheeventthatSarahwill
winbeexpressedintermsofAandB?
a.

b B.

b.

c B.

c.

A +B

.
c

Elaboration:theeventthatatleastoneoftwoeventshappensisdenotedasA c
sets).

(theunionoftwo

Exercise2.
Fourcomponentsareconnectedtoformasystemasshowninthefollowingdiagram.Thewhole
systemwillonlyfunctionifthereisapath/connectionofworkingcomponentsfromlefttoright.

DenotebyA i theeventthatithcomponentworks.Whatistheeventthatthesystemfunctions?
a.

(A 1

bA

b.

(A 1

c.

(A 1

bA

d.

(A 1

2)

A2 )

2)

A2 )

b (A b A ).
3

(A 3

(A 3

b A ).

b (A c
3

A4 )

A4 )

Elaboration: These are two serially connected subsystems, say S 1 and S 2 , each with two
componentsconnectedinparallel.Sotheeventthatthesystemfunctionsis S 1 b S 2 .Since S 1 and
S 2 havetwocomponentsinparallel,theeventthatthesystemfunctionsis( A 1 c A 2 ) b ( A 3 c A 4 ) .
Exercise3.
Fourcomponentsareconnectedtoformasystemasshowninthefollowingdiagram.Thewhole
systemwillfunctionifthereisapath/connectionofworkingdevicesfromlefttoright.

DenotebyA i theeventthatithcomponentworks.Whatistheeventthatthesystemfunctions?
a.

(A 1

bA

b.

(A 1

c.

(A 1

bA

d.

(A 1

2)

A2 )

2)

A2 )

b (A b A ).
3

(A 3

(A 3

b A ).

b (A c
3

A4 )

A4 )

Elaboration: These are two parallel subsystems, say S 1 and S 2 , each with two components
connected serially. So the event that the system functions is S 1 c S 2 .Since S 1 and S 2 have two
componentsconnectedserially,theeventthatthesystemfunctionsis( A 1 b A 2 ) c ( A 3 b A 4 ) .
Exercise4.
Threeletters,forAnthony,BettyandCarlaareputwithoutlookingintothreeenvelopesalready
addressed to Anthony, Betty and Carla. What is the probability that exactly one envelope will
containthecorrectletter?
a.

1/3

b.

1/2

c.

2/3

Elaboration:Thereare6elementsinthesamplespace.Theyhavethesameprobability.Threeofthe
1/2

6outcomessatisfythecriterionthatexactlyonegetsthelettercorrectly.So,theprobabilityis1/2.
Exercise5.
TheprobabilitythatarandomlyselectedstudentatacertainuniversityhasaVisacreditcardis0.5.
TheprobabilitythatthestudenthasaMastercardis0.4.Furthermoretheprobabilitythatthestudent
hasbothtypesofcardsis0.25.Whatistheprobabilitythatarandomlyselectedstudentfromthe
universityhasatleastonecreditcard?
a.

0.9

b.

1.15

c.

0.65

Elaboration:Usingtheadditionrule,onefindsP(A c

B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A

b B)

= 0.65

Exercise6.
Forthetwoevents Aand Bitisknownthat P( A

bB

) = 1/2

andthat P(A)

= P(B) = 1/3

WhatisP(A b B) ?
a.

1/2

b.

1/9

c.

1/6
a

Elaboration:
P(A

b B)

Using

= P(A) + P(B) P(A

the

addition

rule,

B) = P(A) + P(B) (1 P( A

bB

one
c

finds

)) = 1/3 + 1/3 (1 1/2) = 1/6

Exercise7.
When the electricity usage of a household falls below a certain kWh in a month, the electricity
supplieroffersaspecialratetothehousehold.LetAdenotetheeventthatusageofelectricityofa
certainhouseholdinthemonthofAugustisbelowthethreshold.Let Bdenotetheeventthatthe
electricityusageofthesamehouseholdinthemonthofDecemberisbelowthethreshold.Suppose
P(A) = 0.4, P(B) = 0.3

and P(A c

B) = 0.6

.Whatistheprobabilitythattheelectricityusage

ofthehouseholdwouldbebelowthethresholdinbothAugustandDecember?
a.

0.12

b.

0.7

c.

0.1

Elaboration:
P(A

b B)

Using

= P(A) + P(B) P(A

the

addition

B) = 0.4 + 0.3 0.6 = 0.1

rule,
.

one

finds

Exercise8.
Thefollowingtablesummarizeswhathappenedtothe2223passengersofthesinkingTitanicship.
Men Women Boys Girls
Survived 332 318

29

27

Ifonerandomlyselectsapassengerfromthepassengerslist,whatistheprobabilityofgettinga
manorachild?
a.

0.8102

b.

0.7899

c.

0.5496

Elaboration:Thenumberofboys,girlsandmenis1801.So,theprobabilityis1801/2223.
Exercise9.
A bus manufacturing company buys mechanical parts to be built into the bus doors from many
smallersuppliers.Duetofaultypartscomingfromoneofthesuppliers,thedoorsofsomebuses
startmalfunctioningshortlyafterthebusesareputintoservice.Acertaincityhasbought20such
busesfromthiscompany,outofwhich8havedoorpartsfromthefaultysupplier.Thecitycouncil
wantstomakeathoroughinspectionofthesebuses.Itselectsthebusesonebyoneatrandom
(and,ofcourse,withoutreplacement).Whatistheprobabilitythatthesecondbuschosenhasfaulty
doorpartsgiventhatthefirstselectedbushasfaultydoorparts?
14

a.

95

b.

19

c.

19

d.

20

Elaboration:Thisisaconditionalprobability.Ifthefirstbuswas'faulty',onlyseven'faultybuses'remain
19

7/19

outof19.Theprobabilityis7/19.
Exercise10.
A bus manufacturing company buys mechanical parts to be built into the bus doors from many
smallersuppliers.Duetofaultypartscomingfromoneofthesuppliers,thedoorsofsomebuses
startmalfunctioningshortlyafterthebusesareputintoservice.Acertaincityhasbought20such
busesfromthiscompany,outofwhich8havedoorpartsfromthefaultysupplier.Thecitycouncil
wantstomakeathoroughinspectionofthesebuses.Itselectsthebusesonebyoneatrandom
(and,ofcourse,withoutreplacement).Whatistheprobabilitythatbothofthefirsttwochosenbuses
havefaultydoorparts?
14

a.

95

b.

19

c.

8
20

Elaboration:UsethemultiplicationruleP(A b B)
to8/20 7/19 = 14/95.

\ tofindthattheprobabilityisequal

= P(A)P(B A)

Exercise11.
Thefollowingtablesummarizeswhathappenedtothe2223passengersofthesinkingTitanicship.
Men Women Boys Girls
Survived 332 318

29

27

One of the Titanic passengers is randomly selected from the list who started the journey. If the
selectedpassengerisaman,whatistheprobabilitythathesurvivedthedisaster?
a.

0.7611

b.

0.1493

c.

0.4703

d.

0.1962

Elaboration:thisisaconditionalprobability.Theansweris
332/2223

332
=

1692/2223

Exercise12.

= 0.1962.
1692

A fire insurance company has highrisk (H), mediumrisk (M) and lowrisk (L) clients, who have,
respectively, probabilities 0.02, 0.01, 0.0025 of filing claims (C) within a given year. The
proportions of clients in these three categories are 0.1, 0.2,and 0.7, respectively. What is the
probabilitythatarandomlychosenclientwillfileaclaiminagivenyear?
a.

0.0058

b.

0.0325

c.

0.0108

d.

0.0014

Elaboration:Usethe'lawoftotalprobability'tofind\begin{equation*}

P(C) = P(C H)P(H) + P(C M)P(M) + P(C L)P(L) =

= 0.02

0.1 + 0.01 0.2 + 0.0025 0.7

= 0.0058.

\end{equation*}
Exercise13.
Fourcomponentsareconnectedtoformasystemasshowninthefollowingdiagram.Thewhole
systemwillfunctionifthereisapath/connectionofworkingdevicesfromlefttoright.

Suppose the components work independently of one another and each one of them has 90%
chanceofworking.Whatistheprobabilitythatthesystemfunctions?
4

a.

(0.9)

b.

(0.99)

c.

0.81 + 0.81 (0.81)

d.

0.99 + 0.99 (0.99)

.
2

Elaboration: These are two serially connected subsystems, say

S1

and
S1

S2

, each with two

bS

S1

componentsconnectedinparallel.Sotheeventthatthesystemfunctionsis S 1 b S 2 .Since S 1 and

S 2 havetwocomponentsinparallel,theeventthatthesystemfunctionsis ( A 1 c A 2 ) b ( A 3 c A 4 ) .
Therefore,theprobabilityis
P[( A 1

sinceP( A 1

A2 )

b (A c
3

A 2 ) = 1 (0.1 )

A 4 )] = P( A 1

= 0.99

A2 )

P( A c
3

A 4 ) = (0.99)

Exercise14.
Fourcomponentsareconnectedtoformasystemasshowninthefollowingdiagram.Thewhole
systemwillfunctionifthereisapath/connectionofworkingdevicesfromlefttoright.

Suppose the components work independently of one another and each one of them has 90%
chanceofworking.Whatistheprobabilitythatthesystemfunctions?
a.

0.81 + 0.81 (0.81)

b.

0.99 + 0.99 (0.99)

c.

(0.9)

d.

(0.99)

.
2

Elaboration: These are two parallel subsystems, say S 1 and S 2 , each with two components
connected serially. So the event that the system functions is S 1 c S 2 .Since S 1 and S 2 have two
components connected serially, the event that the system functions is ( A 1 b A 2 ) c ( A 3 b A 4 ) .
Therefore,theprobabilityis\begin{equation*}
P[( A 1

bA

2)

(A 3

bA

4 )]

= 0.81 + 0.81 (0.81)

\end{equation*}sinceP( A 1

bA

2)

= P( A 1

bA

2)

+ P( A 1

bA

2)

P[( A 1

bA

2)

b (A b A
3

= 0.81

Exercise15.
A fire insurance company has highrisk (H), mediumrisk (M) and lowrisk (L) clients, who have,
respectively, probabilities 0.02, 0.01, 0.0025 of filing claims (C) within a given year. The
proportionsofclientsinthesethreecategoriesare0.1,0.2,and0.7,respectively.Whatproportion
oftheclaimsfiledeachyearcomefromhighriskclients?

4 )]

a.

0.1

b.

0.02

c.

0.3478

d.

0.002

Elaboration:theprobabilityisP(H\C) .UsingBayes'theoremonefinds

P(H)

P(H C) = P(C H)

= 0.02
P(C)

0.1
= 0.3478,
0.00575

since\begin{equation*}

\
\
0.1 + 0.01 0.2 + 0.0025 0.7

P(C) = P(C H)P(H) + P(C M)P(M) + P(C L)P(L) =

= 0.02

= 0.00575.

\end{equation*}
Exercise16.
Suppose60%ofacompany'scomputerchipsaremadeinfactoryAand40%aremadeinfactory
B

.Furthermore,therateofdefectivechipsproducedbyfactory Ais30%andthatforfactory Bis

20%.Ifarandomlychosenchipinthecompany'scomputerturnedouttobedefective,whatisthe
probabilitythatthechipcamefromfactoryA?
a.

0.18

b.

0.6923

c.

0.30

d.

0.5

Elaboration:theprobabilityisP(A\D) .UsingBayes'theoremonefinds

P(A)

P(A D) = P(D A)

= 0.3
P(D)

0.6
= 0.6923,
0.26

since\begin{equation*}

\
\
= 0.3 0.6 + 0.2 0.4 = 0.26.

P(D) = P(D A)P(A) + P(D B)P(B)

\end{equation*}
Exercise17.

TwoeventsAandBaremutuallyexclusive.WehaveP(A)
GiveP(A b B

= 0.26`

andP(B)

= 0.22`

Elaboration: because
c
P(A b B ) = P(A) =.

and

are mutually exclusive, we have

B . Therefore,
c

Exercise18.
FortwoeventsAandCthefollowingholds:
,

P(A) = 0.25 P(C) = 0.35

andP(A b C)

= 0.1

ComputeP(A b C ) .
c

Elaboration: with the total probability rule one finds P(A)

c
P(A b C ) = 0.25 0.1 = 0.15 .

= P(A

b C) + P(A b C ) . Therefore,
c

Exercise19.
Considerthefollowingcircuit.

This circuit operates if there is a path of functional devices from left to right. There are three
devices(I,IIandIII).Theprobabilitythateachdevicefunctionsisgiveninthegraph.Assumethat
devicesfailindependently.
Itisgiventhatthecircuitoperates.Giventhisfact,whatistheprobabilitythatdeviceIfunctions?

Elaboration:thisisconditionalprobabilityP(A \ \makeboxcircuit operates) ,whereAdenotesthe

eventthatdeviceIfunctions.Usethedefinitionofconditionalprobabilitytoevaluatethisprobabilityor
useBayes'theoremtoevaluateit.WithBayes'theoremonefinds\begin{equation*}

P(A \makeboxcircuit operates) =

P(\makeboxcircuit operates A)

P(A)

P(\makeboxcircuit operates A)

P(A \makeboxcircuit operates) =

0.90) 0.85
0.90 0.85 + 0.70 0.70 0.90 0.85
(0.90 + 0.70 0.70

P(A)

P(\makeboxcircuit operates)
0.8245
=

= 0.887
0.9295

\end{equation*}
Exercise20.
TwoeventsAandBaremutuallyexclusive.WehaveP(A)
ForanothereventCwehaveP(C)
FurthermoreP(A b C)
ComputeP(A c

= P(B

C)

= 0.35

b C)

= 0.25

andP(B)

= 0.4

= 0.1

Elaboration:Usetheadditionruleforthreeeventstofind\begin{equation*}
P(A

C)

= P(A) + P(B) + P(C) P(A

b B) P(A b C) P(B b C) + P(A b B b C)

0.25 + 0.4 + 0.35 0 0.1 0.1 0 = 0.8.

\end{equation*}
Exercise21.
Ameetinghasbeenplannedfortheboardofdirectorsofacompany.Itisessentialthatboththe
CEO(Roy)andtheCFO(Inge)arepresentatthemeeting.Ifoneofthem(orboth)hastocancel,
themeetingwillbecanceledalso.TheprobabilitythatRoyhastocancelthemeetingis 1/10,the
probabilitythatIngehastocancelthemeetingis1/5.ThetwoeventsthatRoycancelsthemeeting
andthatIngecancelsthemeetingareindependent.
The meeting has been canceled. Given this fact, what is the probability that Both Roy and Inge
canceledthemeeting?

Elaboration: Let A denote the event that Roy cancels and B the event that Inge cancels. The
conditionalprobabilityis\begin{equation*}
P[(A

b B)\(A c

P[(A
B)]

b B) b (A c
P(A c B)

B)]

b B)
P(A c B)
P(A

P(A)P(B)
=
P(A) + P(B) P(A

\end{equation*}

1/10

b B)

1/5

1/10 + 1/5 1/10

= 1/14.
1/5

Exercise22.
TwoeventsAandBaremutuallyexclusiveandwehave

P(A) = 0.3,

ComputetheprobabilityP( A

P(B) = 0.4

b B ).
c

Elaboration:UsingMorgan'slawandtheadditionrulewehave\begin{equation*}
P( A

bB

) = 1 P(A

B)

= 1 P(A) P(B) + P(A

b B)

= 1 0.3 0.4 0 = 0.3.

\end{equation*}
Exercise23.
ForthreeeventsA,BandCwehave

P(A) = 0.3,
P(C

\ A)

P(B) = 0.4,

= 0.9,

P(C

\ B)

= 0.6,

P(C

\ (A b B
C

)) = 0.1 .

FurthermorethetwoeventsAandBaremutuallyexclusive.
ComputetheprobabilityP(C) .

Elaboration:BecauseA c B c ( A b B c ) = Sand A, Band ( A

canusethetotalprobabilityruletofind\begin{equation*}
c

\
\
0.9 0.3 + 0.6 0.4 + 0.1 0.3

P(C) = P(C A)P(A) + P(C B)P(B) + P(C

=

\end{equation*}

b B ) aremutuallyexclusiveone
c

\ (A b B

= 0.54.

))P(A

bB

) =