HIMALAYAN FRONTIER

The Future of SAARC is Now

Pramod Jaiswal
Pramod Jaiswal
SAARC Doctorate Fellow, Centre for South Asian Studies, JNU

The 18th South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) Summit is
taking place in Kathmandu at the historic moment when South Asia is going through
massive transformation. India elected Narendra Modi as its prime minister with an
overwhelming majority. Nepal voted for the second Constituent Assembly after the
first failed to deliver the constitution within the stipulated time. Afghanistan, the
newly inducted member of SAARC voted for Ashraf Ghani as its president. Sheikh
Hasina and Nawaz Sharif were elected to the prime ministers positions in
Bangladesh and Pakistan respectively. The King of Bhutan devolved powers to his
country-people who aspired for democracy.

Media reports suggest that three agreements SAARC Railway Agreement, SAARC
Motor Vehicle Agreement and SAARC Framework Agreement on Energy Cooperation
might be signed during the 18th SAARC Summit, scheduled for 26-27 November.

Formation of the SAARC

The SAARC was formed by Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and
Sri Lanka to actualise their common goals, economic cooperation being one of
them. Afghanistan was introduced as the newest member, in 2007.

Regionalism began and flourished around the world after World War II with the aim
of liberalising trade among the member states of respective blocs. The end of the
Cold War further strengthened their commitments towards greater economic
cooperation via free trade agreements, such as in the European Union, the Arab
Maghreb Union, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, the Caribbean
Community, the Common Southern Market, and the Southern African Development
Community. With the EUs success story, there has been a rise in the number of
such regional organisations. Founded in 1985, SAARC was a late arrival in following
the growing trend of regionalism.

Opportune Moment for SAARC

South Asia can have tremendous opportunity as the economy of the region has
great impact on the global economy. The epicenter of global economy is gradually
shifting towards the east with the emergence of China and India as the largest
economies. Economic integration within South Asia region possesses great
opportunity; Chinas inclusion can change the game altogether. It is possible that
China applied for observer status in the SAARC due to this potential. The challenge
facing the leaders of SAARC member countries is to materialise the enormous
potential for the betterment of the people of the region. South Asia is the least
integrated region in the world with the lowest intra-regional trade. There is a
pressing need for a speedy implementation of the South Asian Free Trade
Agreement.

Challenges
South Asian regionalism has been suffering due to bilateral tensions and differences
between the member countries. The region has a long history of conflicts, especially
between India and Pakistan who have fought four wars since 1947. Though the
India-Pakistan rivalry is often blamed for SAARCs failure, the reasons are in fact
deeper and structural in nature. The geographical, ethnic, historical and political
factors have gridlocked SAARC and will persist unless India adopts proactive
confidence-building measures.

One of the major reasons for the failure of SAARC is that one of its members is
much larger than all of its other members put together. India accounts for over 60
per cent of SAARCs geographcical area, population, GDP, foreign exchange, gold
reserves and armed forces. The huge resource and power imbalance generates an
acute sense of insecurity among the member countries. Moreover, its relationship
with the second largest member, Pakistan, causes polarisation instead of regional
harmony owing to their historical conflict. Similarly, India shares boundaries (land
and/or maritime) with all the member countries while they, (barring Pakistan and
Afghanistan) do not share boundaries with each other. The existing unsettled border
disputes and increasing conventional conflicts with India has increased a sense of
insecurity among its neighbours.

Another important factor that hinders regional cooperation is the variation in their
political beliefs. South Asia has witnessed all types of political systems democracy,
monarchy and dictatorship. India being the matured democracy and propagator of
democracy in the region created asymmetry in political dealings among the
member countries. Insecurity and distrust among the member countries forced
smaller member countries to bandwagon with external powers (or other member
countries) to balance India thus hampering regional cooperation.

Modis invitation to the heads of governments of the SAARC member-states to his

swearing-in ceremony was perhaps a signal that under his tenure as the prime
minister, India would prioritise its neighbourhood. He visited Bhutan and Nepal and
shared Indias desire to establish a SAARC satellite. One has to wait and watch if
Modi would be able to fulfill those promises.

In order to revive the SAARC, one or more member countries can take initiatives to
reduce distrust and insecurities among the member countries. Similarly, like-minded
SAARC countries can form a sub-regional group and enjoy the benefits of regional
cooperation. But cooperation in the sub-regional group which includes India will
have limited cooperation within SAARC, while a sub-regional group that does not
include India will suffer from a lack of contiguity and capacity constraints. India,
being the largest economy of South Asia should show its benevolence and bear the
cost of rejuvenating the SAARC for promoting regional cooperation in the region.
Despite of the discouraging past, there is optimism among the member countries as
all the South Asian countries have adopted democracy and are realising the benefits
of regionalism.