CASE STUDY: RAINFALL TREND ANALYSIS OF WESTERN

HIMALAYAN REGION

SUBMITTED FOR THE COURSE WORK CEN-601, CEN-602

By
Akshay Kumar
ROLL NOSID: 15203015

Under the guidance of

Dr. Kamal Kumar

Post Graduate-WATER RESOURCES ENGINEERING Water Resources Engineering

DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERINGCivil Engineering Department
PEC UniversityNIVERSITY oOFf TECHNOLOGYechnology
CHANDIGARH - 160012

CERTIFICATE
I hereby certify that the case study which is being presented in this Report titled CASE
STUDY: RAINFALL TREND ANALYSIS OF WESTERN HIMALAYAN REGION and
submitted to the Water Resources Engineering Department, PEC University of Technology,
Chandigarh was carried out under the supervision of Dr. Kamal Kumar, Assistant Professor,
Civil Engineering Department.

Akshay Kumar
ME15203015

Dr. Kamal Kumar

Assistant Professor

ABSTRACT

Trend analysis of rainfall over a watershed area on various spatial and time scales, has been of
great concern during the past few decades. Accurate assessment of water resource potential is
of prime importance for developmental planning, ood protection and control, and efcient
water management, for which analysis of rainfall is the starting point. In present study
monsoon rainfall analysis of western Himalayan region i.e. Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal
Pradesh and Uttarakhand has been carried out from 2004-2014. Monsoon rainfall trends are
calculated for average monthly rainfall data and forecast has been done using moving averages
of length two and three. Monsoon rainfall trends for H.P are negative for July, in J&K June and
July month shows massive decrease in rainfall amount while UK trends shows a massive
decrease in rainfall for July, August and September. Moving average with length two and three
has been performed on net monsoon rainfall to generate forecasts for 2015, 2016 and 2017 with
95% confidence interval.

Keywords: Rainfall, Trend, Moving Average

1. INTRODUCTION
Trend analysis of rainfall over a watershed area on various spatial and time scales, has been of
great concern during the past few decades. Although the subject area of climate change is vast,
the changing pattern of rainfall is a topic within this field that deserves urgent and systematic
attention, since it affects both the availability of freshwater and food production (Dore, 2005).
Based on various experiments performed in New Delhi, India, Agarwal (2007) has reported 1 o
C rise in temperature throughout the growing period will reduce wheat production by 5 million
tonnes. Higher or lower rainfall, or changes in its spatial and seasonal distribution would
influence the spatial and temporal distribution of runoff, soil moisture and groundwater
reserves, and would affect the frequency of droughts and floods. The Indian climate is
dominated by the southwest monsoon. About 80% of the rainfall in India occurs during the four
monsoon months (JuneSeptember) with large spatial and temporal variations over the country.
Such a heavy concentration of rainfall results in a scarcity of water in many parts of the country
during the non-monsoon period. Therefore, for India, where agriculture has a significant
influence on both the economy and livelihood, the availability of adequate water for irrigation
under changed climatic scenarios is very important.
A trend analysis is an aspect of technical analysis that tries to predict the future movement of a
stock based on past data. In present study trend analysis of average monthly rainfall has been
done using statistical tests.
Rainfall forecast for next three years has been done using moving average method with moving
average length of two and three and 95% confidence interval. Moving average is a succession
of averages derived from successive segments (typically of constant size and overlapping) of a
series of values.

2. LITERATURE REVIEW
Basistha et al. 2009 studied the changes in rainfall pattern in the Indian Himalayas during 20th
century using 80-year data from 30 rain gauge stations maintained by the India Meteorological
Department (IMD). Modied MannKendall test (MMK) was applied to detect trend, and
PettittMannWhitney (PMW) test was employed to detect possible shift. The results show
that the most probable year of change in annual as well as monsoon rainfall in the region is
1964. There was an increasing trend uptoup to 1964 (corroborating with all India and nearby
plains), followed by a decreasing trend in 19651980 (exclusive to this region). In the entire
region, changes are most conspicuous over the Shivaliks and the southern part of the Lesser
Himalayas.
Kumar et al. 2010 studied the monthly, seasonal and annual trends of rainfall using monthly
data series of 135 years (1871-2005) for 30 sub- divisions in India. Haryana, Punjab and
Coastal Karnataka showed an increasing trend in annual rainfall which was statistically
significant. Around fifteen sub-divisions showed decreasing trends but Chattisgarh indicated a
significant decreasing trend. In August, the number of sub-divisions showing an increasing
trend exceeds those showing a decreasing trend, where as in September, the situation is
opposite. For whole of India, no significant trend was detected for annual, seasonal, or monthly
rainfall. Rainfall in June, July and September decreased, whereas in August it increased, at
national scale.
Krishan et al. 2015 studied annual, season and monthly variations in rainfall trend in Punjab,
India for 102 years (1902-2002) using statistical and non-parametric tests. In his the magnitude
of the trend in the seasonal and annual series was determined using the Sens estimator and
statistical significance of the trend in the time series was analysed using Modified MannKendall (MMK) test. Monthly rainfall data of 17 districts of Punjab consisting of on a 0.5
degree latitude-longitude grid interpolated from 1901 to 2002 available at http://
www.indiawaterportal.org/metdata has been used in this study. The results showed that
Gurdaspur district received the maximum mean annual rainfall (639.9 mm) whereas Muktsar
district received the minimum mean annual rainfall (302.5 mm). The contribution of monsoon
rainfall varies from 77.5 % (Amritsar) to 83.1% (Fatehgarh Sahib and Patiala).
Chhabra and Haris 2015 studied Climate Variability, Extreme Rainfall and Temperature
Events over Different Agro-ecological Zones of Bihar using data of 45 years for representative
centres falling in three agro ecological zones of Bihar. Author analysed trends in temperature

and rainfall extremes on the basis of series of daily data. A decreasing trend in extreme
minimum temperature events for Pusa and Patna, while an increasing trend for Madhepura and
Sabour was observed. No significant change was observed for extreme minimum temperature
events in any of the zones. Extreme maximum temperature events showed a decreasing trend
for all stations except Patna (zone IIIB). Significant decrease in events was observed only for
Sabour (zone IIIA). Number of rainy days showed a significant increasing trend for Patna and
Sabour (zone III), however, a decreasing trend for zone I and II (Pusa and Madhepura).

3. OBJECTIVE
In previous chapter numerous studies and methods have been discussed by various researchers
using various statistical and non-parametric tests. Present study is liable for western Himalayan
region mainly J&K, H.P, and UttrakhandUttarakhand and major objective of this study are:
a. To find the trends of monsoon precipitation over western Himalayan region.
b. To generate forecasts for next three monsoons.
c. To find annual precipitation trends over the study area.

4. STUDY AREA
Western Himalaya, also called Punjab Himalaya refers to the western half of the Himalayan
Mountain region, stretching from Badakhshan in northeastern Afghanistan/southern Tajikistan,
through Kashmir, Himachal, UttrakhandUttarakhand and Nepal. All five tributary rivers of the
Indus in the Punjab region (Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) originate from the Western
Himalaya. The western Himalayan region consist of belt of coniferous forest covering 39,700
square kilometres (15,300 sq mi) on elevations between 3,000 and 3,500 metres (9,800 and
11,500 ft). It extends west from the Gandaki River in Nepal, through the Indian states of
Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh, and into Jammu and Kashmir eastern Pakistan.

Fig. 4.1 Study Area Showing J&K, H.P & UK

5. DATA & SOFTWARES

Average monthly rainfall data from 2004 to 2014 of Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh
has been collected from Government of Indias data portal (https://data.gov.in/catalog/allindia-area-weighted-monthly-seasonal-and-annual-rainfall-mm). The data analysis has been
done using MS-Excel 2013 and Minitab.

6. METHODOLOGY

I
Calculation of seasonal precipitation over the study area.
Calculation of annual average precipitation.

II
Seasonal precipitation plots for 2004-14.
Time Series plot of annual average rainfall from 2004-14.

III
Forecasting precipitation using moving average trends with 95%
confidence interval.

7. RESULTS & DISCUSSIONS

Monsoon Rainfall Analysis: In present study monsoon season is considered from month June to
September and annual average trends were also checked.
Jammu & Kashmir: In present study monsoon season is considered from month June to September.
For Jammu & KashmirThe region saw increasing trends for August and September while the trends saw
significant decrease in rainfall for the month of June and July. The region received maximum monthly
rainfall in august 2013 (306.2cm).the But in case annual average rainfall no significant trend was
detected and year 2006 received maximum annual rainfall while 2009 was lowest with 72.71cm.
Rainfall Plot (June -Se pt.) 2004-2014 J&K
400Rainfall June
350

Linear (Rainfall June)

300

Rainfall (cm)

250Rainfall July
f(x) = 10.34x + 122.44
200
R
= 0.24
f(x)
- 6.15x+
+23.44
197.71
f(x) =
= 14.31x
150
R
R =
= 0.18
0.23
100Rainfall Aug
f(x) = - 1.59x + 93.12
50
R = 0.02
0
Rainfall
1
2Sept 3
4
5

Linear (Rainfall July)

Linear (Rainfall Aug)

Sept)
6 Linear
7 (Rainfall
8
9
10

11

Year (1-11) 2004-2014

Fig. 7.1 Monthly Rainfall Trends of J&K (2004-2014)

A n n u a l Av e r a g e R a i n fa l l J & K
Annual Average Rainfall J&K

Linear (Annual Average Rainfall J&K)

140
120
100
80
Rainfall (cm)

f(x) = 0.17x + 94.25

60
40
20
0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Year

Fig. 7.2 Average Annual Rainfall J&K (2004-2014)

Himachal Pradesh: The region saw slightly increasing trends for June, August and September
while no significant trend was found in July rainfall. In average annual rainfall analysis the
trend was found to be increasing. In year 2010 region received 102.32cm rainfall while year
2004 was lowest with 63.33cm.
f(x) = 5.39x - 10724.03

Rainfall Plot (June-Sept.) 2004-2014 Himachal Pradesh

400

June Rainfall

Linear (June Rainfall)

350
300
250 July
f(x)
= 10x + 156.08
Rainfall

Rainfall (cm) 200

Linear (July Rainfall)

f(x) = - 0.65x + 211.31

150
f(x)Rainfall
= 2.23x + 102.51
100 Aug

Linear (Aug Rainfall)

50
0

1
2
3
Sept Rainfall

7
8
9
10
Linear (Sept Rainfall)

11

Year (1-11) 2004-2014

Fig. 7.3 Monthly Rainfall Trends of H.P (2004-2014)

Ave ra g e Annua l R a inf a ll H. P

120
100
80

f(x) = 2.18x + 69.23

60
Average
Rainfall H.P
Rainfall
(cm) Annual

Linear (Average Annual Rainfall H.P)

40
20
0

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Year

Fig. 7.4 Average Annual Rainfall H.P (2004-2014)

UTTARAKHAND: This region saw huge rainfall in monsoons as compare to others two
regions but trends showed a significant decrease in rainfall for the month July, August and
September. Uttarakhand saw huge flood in 2013 which can be justified by these plots. The
region received 488.9cm rainfall for June 2013 and 48cm low in June 2012. Annual average
trends show an insignificant decrease in rainfall in the region. Year 2007 received highest
average rainfall 157.86cm and year 2009 was lowest with average rainfall 89cm.

Rainfall Plot (June-Sept.) 2004-2014 UTTARAKHAND

700
Rainfall June

Linear (Rainfall June)

600
500

f(x) = - 9.92x + 511.81

Rainfall July
Linear (Rainfall July)
400 f(x) = - 5.61x + 446.9

Rainfall (cm)

300
f(x)
= - 10.33x + 280.52 Linear (Rainfall Aug)
Rainfall
Aug
200
f(x) = 9.04x + 110.59
100
Rainfall
Sept.
0
1
2
3

Linear (Rainfall Sept.)

6
7
8
9
10

11

Year (1-11) 2004-14

Fig. 7.5 Monthly Rainfall Trends of UTTARAKHAND (2004-2014)

A n n u a l Av e r a g e R a i n fa l l
180
160
140
120
100
80
Rainfall (cm)
60
40
20
0

f(x) = - 0.78x + 129.33

Annual Average
Rainfall
Linear (Annual
Average Rainfall)

Year

Fig. 7.6 Average Annual Rainfall UTTARAKHAND (2004-2014)

Forecast: Monsoon rainfall forecast was done using moving average method for all three
regions with 2 and 3 moving average length and 95% confidence interval. Mean Absolute
Percentage Error (MAPE) with moving average length of 3 is less for Jammu Kashmir and
Himachal Pradesh was 16.9 and 16.6 respectively while for Uttarakhand it was 28. MAPE for
moving average length of 2 was 20.3, 20 and 23.4 for J&K, H.P and Uttarakhand respectively.
Analysis & Plots:
Jammu & Kashmir:
Table 7.1: Moving Average Analysis J&K
Moving Average
Moving Average
Length 2
Length 3
Data: Monsoon Rainfall (2004-2014)
Length
NMissing

11
0

Length
NMissing

Accuracy Measures
MAPE
20.3
MAD
111.5
MSD
20062.0

Time
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014

Jun-Sep
383.8
456.4
680.4
498.0
524.3
338.4
673.7
520.6
558.8
651.9
633.4

Data
Length
NMissing

Accuracy Measures
MAPE
16.9
MAD
82.4
MSD
13947.1

MA
*
420.10
568.40
589.20
511.15
431.35
506.05
597.15
539.70
605.35
642.65

Forecasts
Period Forecast
2015
642.65
2016
642.65
2017
642.65

Predict
*
*
420.10
568.40
589.20
511.15
431.35
506.05
597.15
539.70
605.35

Lower
365.040
365.040
365.040

Error
*
*
260.30
-70.40
-64.90
-172.75
242.35
14.55
-38.35
112.20
28.05

Upper
920.260
920.260
920.260

Monsoon Rainfall 2004-2014

11
0

Moving Average
Length 2
Accuracy Measures
MAPE
20.0
MAD
128.2
MSD
21593.2
Time

Rainfall

11
0

MA

Predict

Error

Time
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014

Jun-Sep
383.8
456.4
680.4
498.0
524.3
338.4
673.7
520.6
558.8
651.9
633.4

MA
*
*
506.867
544.933
567.567
453.567
512.133
510.900
584.367
577.100
614.700

Forecasts
Period Forecast
2015
614.7
2016
614.7
2017
614.7

Predict
*
*
*
506.867
544.933
567.567
453.567
512.133
510.900
584.367
577.100

Lower
383.232
383.232
383.232

Error
*
*
*
-8.867
-20.633
-229.167
220.133
8.467
47.900
67.533
56.300

Upper
846.168
846.168
846.168

2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014

424.9
662.1
590.6
497.0
737.9
507.5
875.1
732.8
696.3
774.2
523.0

*
543.50
626.35
543.80
617.45
622.70
691.30
803.95
714.55
735.25
648.60

*
*
543.50
626.35
543.80
617.45
622.70
691.30
803.95
714.55
735.25

*
*
47.10
-129.35
194.10
-109.95
252.40
41.50
-107.65
59.65
-212.25

Forecasts
Period
12
13
14

Forecast
648.6
648.6
648.6

Lower
360.591
360.591
360.591

Upper
936.609
936.609
936.609

Fig. 7.7 Moving Average Plot (J&K) with MA length 2

Fig. 7.8 Moving Average Plot (J&K) with MA length 3

Himachal Pradesh:
Table: 7.2 Moving Average Analysis H.P
Data: Monsoon Rainfall 2004-2014
Moving Average
Length 2
Length
NMissing

Moving Average
Length 3

11
0

Length
NMissing

Accuracy Measures
MAPE
20.0
MAD
128.2
MSD
21593.2

Time
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014

Rainfall
424.9
662.1
590.6
497.0
737.9
507.5
875.1
732.8
696.3
774.2
523.0

Accuracy Measures
MAPE
16.6
MAD
108.1
MSD
21262.3

MA
*
543.50
626.35
543.80
617.45
622.70
691.30
803.95
714.55
735.25
648.60

Forecasts
Period Forecast
2015
648.6
2016
648.6
2017
648.6

11
0

Predict
*
*
543.50
626.35
543.80
617.45
622.70
691.30
803.95
714.55
735.25

Lower
360.591
360.591
360.591

Error
*
*
47.10
-129.35
194.10
-109.95
252.40
41.50
-107.65
59.65
-212.25

Time
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014

Jun-Sep
424.9
662.1
590.6
497.0
737.9
507.5
875.1
732.8
696.3
774.2
523.0

MA
*
*
559.200
583.233
608.500
580.800
706.833
705.133
768.067
734.433
664.500

Forecasts
Period Forecast
2015
664.5
2016
664.5
2017
664.5

Upper
936.609
936.609
936.609

Predict
*
*
*
559.200
583.233
608.500
580.800
706.833
705.133
768.067
734.433

Lower
378.706
378.706
378.706

Error
*
*
*
-62.200
154.667
-101.000
294.300
25.967
-8.833
6.133
-211.433

Upper
950.294
950.294
950.294

Moving Average Plot for Monsoon Rainfall (H.P)

1000

Variable
Actual
Fits
Forecasts
95.0% PI

900

Rainfall (cm)

800

Moving Average
Length 2

700

Accuracy Measures
MAPE
20.0
MAD
128.2
MSD
21593.2

600
500
400
300
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

YEAR

Fig. 7.9 Moving Average Plot (H.P) with MA length 2

Fig. 7.10 Moving Average Plot (H.P) with MA length 3

Uttarakhand:
Table: 7.3 Moving Average Analysis Uttarakhand
Data: Monsoon Rainfall 2004-2014
Moving Average
Length 2
Length
NMissing

Moving Average
Length 3

11
0

Length
NMissing

Accuracy Measures
MAPE
23.4
MAD
265.2
MSD
94663.3

Time
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2010
2009
2011
2012
2013
2014

Jun-Sep
1339.1
1273.6
978.2
1564.5
1151.0
1686.0
898.1
1454.3
1122.3
1373.0
897.7

Accuracy Measures
MAPE
28
MAD
322
MSD
124479

MA
*
1306.35
1125.90
1271.35
1357.75
1418.50
1292.05
1176.20
1288.30
1247.65
1135.35

Forecasts
Period Forecast

11
0

Predict
*
*
1306.35
1125.90
1271.35
1357.75
1418.50
1292.05
1176.20
1288.30
1247.65

Lower

Error
*
*
-328.15
438.60
-120.35
328.25
-520.40
162.25
-53.90
84.70
-349.95

Upper

Time
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2010
2009
2011
2012
2013
2014

Jun-Sep
1339.1
1273.6
978.2
1564.5
1151.0
1686.0
898.1
1454.3
1122.3
1373.0
897.7

MA
*
*
1196.97
1272.10
1231.23
1467.17
1245.03
1346.13
1158.23
1316.53
1131.00

Forecasts
Period Forecast

Predict
*
*
*
1196.97
1272.10
1231.23
1467.17
1245.03
1346.13
1158.23
1316.53

Lower

Error
*
*
*
367.533
-121.100
454.767
-569.067
209.267
-223.833
214.767
-418.833

Upper

2015
2016
2017

1135.35
1135.35
1135.35

532.320
532.320
532.320

1738.38
1738.38
1738.38

2015
2016
2017

1131
1131
1131

439.492
439.492
439.492

Fig. 7.11 Moving Average Plot (H.P) with MA length 2

1822.51
1822.51
1822.51

Fig. 7.12 Moving Average Plot (H.P) with MA length 3

8. CONCLUSION
The presented study shows the monsoon precipitation trends, annual average rainfall trends and
forecasts for next three monsoons in Western Himalayan Region. For Jammu and Kashmir and
Uttarakhand the monsoon rainfall trends and annual average rainfall trends were slightly
decreasing while for H.P there is increase in monsoon rainfall and annual average rainfall. In
case of monsoon rainfall forecast moving average method with length 3 can be accepted for
Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh as mean absolute percentage error is less but for
Uttarakhand moving average method with length 2 can be accepted as mean absolute
percentage is less.

9. REFERENCES
Dore, M. H. I. (2005) Climate change and changes in global precipitation patterns: What do
we know? , Environ. Int. 31, 11671181
Aggarwal, P. K. (2007) Climate change: implications for Indian agriculture. Hydrology Review
22, Roorkee: Indian National Committee on Hydrology, 3746
Basistha A, Arya D. S, Goel N. K (2009) Analysis of historical changes in rainfall in the Indian
Himalayas, Int. J. Climatol. 29, 555572
Kumar V, Jain S.K, Singh Y (2010) Analysis of long-term rainfall trends in India, Hydrological
Sciences Journal Journal des Sciences Hydrologiques, 55(4)
Krishan G, Chandniha S.K, Lohani A.K (2015) Rainfall Trend Analysis of Punjab, India using
Statistical Non-Parametric Test, Current World Environment Vol. 10(3), 792-800
Chhabra V, Haris A. A (2015) Climate Variability, Extreme Rainfall and Temperature Events
over Different Agro-ecological Zones of Bihar, Journal of Agri Search 2(3), 189-194
https://data.gov.in/catalog/all-india-area-weighted-monthly-seasonal-and-annual-rainfall-mm