Network Modelling & Evaluation complex systems

C
output

input
B

System success requires continuity from input to output.

Evaluation Techniques:
- Conditional probability approach
(with Network reduction method)
- Cut set method
- Tie set method
- Tree diagrams (Event Trees, Fault Trees)

Conditional Probability Approach

A

P(SS) = P(SS|E good).P(E good)

+ P(SS|E bad).P(E bad)

RS = RS|E good . RE + RS|E bad . QE

E
B
E good

E bad

Given E is Good:
RS|E good = (1 - QAQB)(1 - QCQD)

Given E is Bad:
RS|E bad = 1 - (1 - RARC)(1 - RBRD)

Overall System Reliability:

RS = (1 - QAQB)(1 - QCQD).RE + [1 - (1 - RARC)(1 - RBRD)].QE

Example:
Calculate the reliability of the system below if all
the individual components have a reliability of 0.98.
input

output

4
6
input

RS = RS|4 good . R4 + RS|4 bad . Q4

Given 4 is good
input

Given 4 is bad
input

6
input

3
output

output
6
input

7
8

RS|4 good = RSS = RSS|3 good . R3 + RSS|3 bad . Q3

Given 3 is good

Given 3 is bad
6

input

input

output

input

output

Cut Set Method

Cut Set:
set of system components which, when failed, causes system failure
set of components which if removed from the network separate the input from
the output
A

C
E

Cut Sets:
AB, CD - 2nd order
ABE, ABC, ABD, ABE, AED, BEC, CDA, CDB, CDE
ABCD, ABCE, ABDE, ACDE, BCDE
ABCDE 5th order

Minimal Cut Set:

any cut set which does not contain any other cut set as a subset
all components of a minimal cut set must fail in order to cause system failure
Minimal Cut Sets:
AB, CD
- 2nd order
AED, BEC 3rd order

Cut Set Method contd..

Minimal Cut Sets:
A and B in parallel, since both must fail for system failure
C1 -> AB
C2 -> CD
C1, C2, C3 and C4 in series
C3 -> AED
since all 4 must be successful for system success
C4 -> BEC

C1

C2

C3

C4

QS = P(C1 C2 C3 C4)
= P(C1) + P(C2) + P(C3) + P(C4)
- P(C1 C2) - P(C1 C3) - P(C1 C4)
- P(C2 C3) - P(C2 C4) - P(C3 C4)
+ P(C1 C2 C3) + P(C1 C2 C4)
+ P(C1 C3 C4) + P(C2 C3 C4)
- P(C1 C2 C3 C4)

P(C1) = QA.QB
P(C2) = QC.QD
P(C3) = QA.QD.QE
P(C4) = QB.QC.QE

P(C1 C2) = P(C1).P(C2) = QA.QB QC.QD

P(C1 C3) = P(C1).P(C3) = QA.QB QD.QE
P(C1 C4) = P(C1).P(C4) = QA.QB QC.QE
..
P(C3 C4)
= P(C1 C2 C3)
= P(C1 C2 C4) = P(C1 C3 C4)
= P(C2 C3 C4) = P(C1 C2 C3 C4)
= QA.QB QC.QD .QE

Cut Set Method contd..

QS = QA.QB + QC.QD + QA.QD.QE + QB.QC.QE

- QA.QB QC.QD - QA.QB QD.QE - QA.QB QC.QE
- QA.QC QD.QE - QB.QC QD.QE - QA.QB QC.QD .QE
+ 4 QA.QB QC.QD .QE
- QA.QB QC.QD .QE
QS = QA.QB + QC.QD + QA.QD.QE + QB.QC.QE
- QA.QB QC.QD - QA.QB QD.QE - QA.QB QC.QE
- QA.QC QD.QE - QB.QC QD.QE + 2QA.QB QC.QD .QE
If QA = QB = QC = QD = QE = Q, then
QS = 2Q2 +2Q3 5Q4 + 2Q5
If Q = 0.01, QS = 0.00020195
RS = 0.99979805

Advantages of Cut Set Method:

- cut sets identify ways in which a system may fail
- approximation can be used to simplify evaluation
- can be easily programmed on a computer
1st Approximation
QS = P(C1 C2 C3 C4)
= P(C1) + P(C2) + P(C3) + P(C4)
- P(C1 C2) - P(C1 C3) - P(C1 C4)
- P(C2 C3) - P(C2 C4) - P(C3 C4)
+ P(C1 C2 C3) + P(C1 C2 C4)
+ P(C1 C3 C4) + P(C2 C3 C4)
- P(C1 C2 C3 C4)
P(C1) + P(C2) + P(C3) + P(C4)
QA.QB + QC.QD + QA.QD.QE + QB.QC.QE
If QA = QB = QC = QD = QE = Q, then
QS = 2Q2 +2Q3
If Q = 0.01, QS = 0.000202, RS = 0.999798
n

2nd Approximation
Neglect higher order cut sets
(events with very low probabilities)
1st order: none
2nd order: AB, CD
3rd order: ADE, BCE
Neglecting cut sets higher than 2nd order
QS P(C1 C2)
P(C1) + P(C2)
QA.QB + QC.QD
If QA = QB = QC = QD = QE = Q, then
QS = 2Q2
If Q = 0.01, QS = 0.0002, RS = 0.9998

For n cut sets, QS = P(Ci)

i=1

Telcom. Repeater Station

Power Supply System
0.10

0.01

DG

Rectifier

3
1
4

Cable

Battery Bank

0.01

0.07

Network Reduction Technique

RX = R2.R3

1
4

QY = QX.Q4
RY = 1 - QX.Q4
= 1 (1-RX).(1-R4)

RS = RY.R1
= 0.98245

0.10

0.01

DG

Rectifier

3
1
4

Battery Bank

Cable
0.01

0.07

Minimal Cutset Approach

For n cut sets, QS = P(Ci)

i=1

Rs = 1 Qs = 0.9823