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FixedEffects
EITM2011
Christopher Berry
ChristopherBerry
SimplestExample:DiffinDiff
Themostbasicdesign,thedifferenceindifferences
(DD)method,isalsousedinmanyrandomizedexperimentsin
whichpretreatmentdataarecollected.
hi h
t t
td t
ll t d
Treatment
Control
Pre
Y1
Y3
Post
Y2
Y4
ATE
(Y2 Y1) (Y4 Y3)
Theaveragetreatmenteffect (ATE)isthedifferencein
differences.
differences
Innonexperimentalsetting,reliesonsomesortofexogenous
variationthatalterstreatmentforonegroupmorethan
another
Outcome
Average
Treatment
Effect
Y2
Treatment Group
Y1
Y4
ControlGroup
Y3
Treatment
Happens
Time
Outcome
Y2
Measuredeffect
without pre
withoutpre
measurement
Treatment Group
Y1
Y4
ControlGroup
Y3
Treatment
Happens
Time
$589
ComparetoAnzia(2011),whosecrosssectionalstudyusesonlythe
After dataandconcludesthattheposttreatmentdifferenceisthe
causaleffectofthetreatment.Effectively,sheisestimatingY2 Y4.
Whatassumptionstoyouneedinordertoclaimthat(Y2 Y4)is
equivalenttoATE?
Y0 = + 0
Thus,theOLSestimateis
Y 1 Y 0 = + ( 1 0
UsingRegressiontoEstimateTreatment
Effects(withRandomAssignment)
ff
( ih
d
i
)
Ifthetreatmentisrandomlyassigned,then
If
the treatment is randomly assigned then D isuncorrelated
is uncorrelated
with.
D isuncorrelatedwith
i
l t d ith ifandonlyif
if d l if 1 = 0
Y 1 Y 0 = + ( 1 0 ) =
g
treatmenteffect
pp
g
,
ButsupposethereisaconcernthatD
i isendogenous,correlated
withi
RegressionwithoutRandomAssignment
(Si l C )
(SimpleCase)
Ifwedonothaverandomization,thereisnoguaranteethatD isuncorrelated
with (D maybeendogenous)
with
may be endogenous)
ThustheOLSestimateisstill
Y 1 Y 0 = + ( 1 0
IfD iscorrelatedwith,then
,
1
Ifyoudonttrulybelievetheassumption,then
you shouldntttrulybelieveyourregression
youshouldn
truly believe your regression
FixedEffects
Nowtherearesomeattributesoftheunitsthatdontchangeover
h
b
f h
h d h
time,Zi.TheorytellsusthattheZisshouldbeinthemodel
(excludingthemleadstoOVB).
Butsupposewecannotobserve/measurealloftherelevantZ
But suppose we cannot observe/measure all of the relevant Zis.We
s We
canstillremovetheZis(observableandunobservable)by
estimatingthefollowingequation,whichremovesunitlevel
averagesfrombothsides:
Y it Y i = (D it D i ) + ( X
it
) + (Z
Z i ) + it i
NotethattheZisdropoutoftheequation becausetheydonotvary
overtime.
i
Importantly,
l notonlydoalltheZ
l d ll h isthatourtheorytells
h
h
ll
ustobeconcernedaboutdropout,butinfactanyZi thatwecould
everimagine,whetherobservableorunobsevable,dropsouttoo.
Notethatdeviatingfromunitlevelaveragesisequivalentto
Note that deviating from unitlevel averages is equivalent to
estimatingafixedeffect,ordummyvariable,forearchindividual
unit,whichwedenotei.
Y it = i + D it + X it + it
Whyarethesetwoequationsequivalent?
SomeDetails
Whyarethetwoapproachesdifferencingfrommeansandestimatingunit
h
h
h
diff
i f
d i
i
i
specificdummiesequivalent?Remembertheregressionanatomyformula.
(MostlyHarmless, sec.3.1.2and5.1)
Anysetofregressioncoefficientscanbeestimatedin2steps.Togetthe
multivariatecoefficientononesetofvariables,firstregressthemallontheother
includedvariables.ThenregressYontheresidualsfromthefirststep.The
residualsfromaregressiononafullsetofunitleveldummiesinapanelare
deviationsfromunitlevelmeans.
Conceptually,itisimportanttonotethatthetermfixed
C
ll i i i
h h
fi d effectdoesnot
ff d
actuallymeanthati isbeingtreatedasnonrandom;itmeansthati is
allowedtobearbitrarilycorrelatedwithDit andXit.(Forthisreason,
Wooldridgeadvocatesusing,ci,todenotethefixedeffectratherthanaGreek
l tt
letter,suchas.Hesprobablyright,butIfollowMostlyHarmlessinusing,
h
H
b bl i ht b t I f ll M tl H
l
i
i
asthatisourtextfortheweek.SeeWooldridge,sec.10.2)
Arelatedapproachtofixedeffectsiffirstdifferencing.AgaintheZiswilldrop
y
y
y
periods,FEandFD
p
outbecausetheydontvaryovertime.Withonlytwotime
areequivalent.Withmorethantwoperiodstheywillbedifferentand
estimatesubstantivelydifferentrelationships.Usetheregressionanatomy
forumlatothinkabouthowtheyaredifferent.TheFDmodelis:
Y it Y i ( t 1 ) = (D it D i ( t 1 ) ) + (X
it
i ( t 1)
)+
it
i ( t 1)
ThinkingaboutTiming
Source:Nichols2007
Interpretation
Conditioningoni,thefixedeffects,controlsforall
unitspecific
unit
specificfactors
factorswhether
whetherobservableor
observable or
unobservablethatareconstantovertime.
Thuswehaveremovedapotentiallylargesourceof
OVB The only omitted variables that threaten a FE
OVB.TheonlyomittedvariablesthatthreatenaFE
designarethosethatchangewithinunitsovertime.
Wecanruleoutall timeinvariantunitlevelfactorsasa
sourceofOVBeventhoughwemaynoteverbeableto
f OVB
h
h
b bl
observeormeasurethem.
Wenowinterprettheestimatedeffect,,astheeffect
p
, ,
ofawithinunitchangeintreatment.Forthisreason,
theFEestimatorisalsocalledthewithin estimator.
In effect each unit serves as its own control group
Ineffect,eachunitservesasitsowncontrolgroup.
Assumptions
AversionoftheCIA,specifiedinchangesratherthanlevels
Alltheselectiononunobservables isduetotimeinvariant
factors
Putdifferently,notimevarying OVB,ornotimevaryingOV
thatiscorrelatedwithchangesintreatmentandchangesin
outcome.Theomittedvariabledoesntchangeovertime.
Statednontechnically:Exceptforthechangeinpolicy,the
twogroupsshouldnototherwisehavehaddifferent
changesovertime.
Alsoneedafunctionalformassumption:effectofthe
p
treatmentislinearandadditive(needthisfortheZi todrop
out).
Summary of Approach
SummaryofApproach
Useacrosstimeorcohortvariationtocontrolforunobservedbut
fixedomittedvariables
Thisdesigncanbeextendedtotwowayandnwayfixedeffectsjust
astheDDcanbeextendedtothediffindiffindiffetc.
Cannotbeusedtocomparelevelsoftheoutcomebetween
t t
treatmentandcontrolgroups,justchangesortrends
t d
t l
j t h
t d
Eachuniteffectivelyservesasitsowncontrolgroup
IfthevariableyoucareabouttheoreticallyisinZi,i.e.,time
invariant then FE wontthelpyou.Butifwhatyoucareaboutis
invariant,thenFEwon
help you But if what you care about is
timevarying,Dit,thenFEsweepsoutabunchofstuffyoudont
careaboutinordertogiveyouamorecredibleestimateofthe
thingyoudocareabout.
Thekeyidentifyingassumptionisthatthecounterfactualtrendin
treatmentandcontrolgroupsisthesame
Notimevaryingomittedvariables
W
Wealsomustassumethattheeffectofthetreatmentisadditive
l
h h ff
f h
i ddi i
andconstant
Inmanycases,youcanusethesetechniqueswithrepeatedcrosssections
( p
(repeatedsamplesfromthesamepopulation)insteadofpaneldata
p
p p
)
p
(repeatedobservationsofthesame individuals)
Sincethediffindiffestimatorisdefinedintermsofsamplemeans,itcanbe
computedequallywellusingpanelorrepeatedcrosssectiondata(RCS)
Thetreatmentvariablecanoftenbedefinedastheproportionofthe
groupreceivingthetreatment(whichmaybe100%,asinachangeinstate
law with individuals grouped by state)
lawwithindividualsgroupedbystate)
RCSanalysisrequirestheassumptionthatunobservableindividualeffects
aredrawnfromthesamepopulationdistributionacrossperiodsbefore
andafterthetreatment.Otherwisethereisthepossibilityof
compositionalbias.
lb
Essentially,assumethetruecausalrelationshipistableovertime.This
assumptionisnotrequiredforpanelanalysis.
AdvantagesofRCSarethatattritionandnonresponse
g
p
issuesareless
severeandsamplesizesareusuallybigger.OftenRCSdatasetsgofarther
backintimebecausethissortofdatahasbeencollectedlongerthantrue
paneldata.
Fixedvs.RandomEffects
OneofthedesirablefeaturesoftheFEdesignisthatitallowsforthe
unitspecificeffecttobecorrelatedwiththeXs.Thusitexplicitly
accountsforoneformofendogeneity,thatresultingfromtime
invariant omitted variables
invariantomittedvariables.
Analternativeapproachistouserandomeffects.TheREmodel
assumesthattheunitspecificeffectisuncorrelatedwiththeXs.
Therefore,thereisnoharminignoringit(noOVB)anditjustbecomes
,
g
g (
)
j
partoftheresidual.
WhentheassumptionsoftheREmodelaresatisfied,itwillbemore
efficientthanFE.However,whentheassumptionsdonthold,itwillbe
bi d B
biased.Bycontrast,FEwillbeunbiasedbutinefficient.
t t FE ill b
bi d b t i ffi i t
ThisleadstoaHausmantypetestforREvs.FE.IftheREassumptions
arevalid,theFEandREcoefficientsshouldbethesame.Testthat
hypothesis.
Bottomline:fromacausalinferenceperspective,REisnotparticularly
useful,sinceitrequiresassuming noOVB.
REiswayoverusedinpoliticalscienceandHausman
y
p
testrarelyreported
y p
ThechoiceofREvs.FEisnotamatterofpersonalpreferenceorstyle
DotheHausman test!Inmyownwork,IhaveneverseenacasewhereRE
isnotresoundinglyrejected
FEvs.LaggedDependentVariable
Usingalaggeddependentvariable(LDV)isanalternativetoFE,witha
similaridentificationframework(seeMostlyHarmless,sec.5.3)
LDVassumes,essentially,theOVBarisesnotfromatime
LDV assumes essentially the OVB arises not from a timeinvariant
invariant
unitlevelfactor,butfromtimevaryingpretreatmenttrends.
MostfamousexampleistheAshenfelter dip
Generallyspeaking,youdonotwanttousebothFEandLDVatthe
y p
g, y
sametime.Doingsorequiresdynamicpaneldatamodels(e.g.,
ArellanoBond)whichareverycomplexandrequirestrong
assumptions
Rather,estimateFEandLDVmodelsseparatelytochecktorobustness
Rather estimate FE and LDV models separately to check to robustness
ofyourresults.Youwanttoseesimilarresultsusingdifferent
identifyingassumptions.
FEandLDVhaveauseful
FE and LDV have a useful bracketing
bracketing property
property
IfthetruemodelisLDVbutyouuseFE,estimatesofapositivetreatment
effectwillbetoobig
IfthetruemodelisFEbutyouuseLDV,estimatesofapositivetreatment
effectwillbetoosmall
ff t ill b t
ll
ThereforeyoucanthinkofFEandLDVasboundingthecausaleffectof
interest(withsomeassumptions)
TestableImplicationsofAssumptions
Keyidentifyingassumptionisthattrendswouldbethe
samefortreatmentandcontrolgroupsintheabsenceof
the treatment
thetreatment
Wecanttestthisdirectly,butwecantestfordifferencesin
trendsbeforethetreatmentisgiven
Thistestcanbesimple:graphorsimplycomparemean
Thi t t
b i l
h
i l
outcomesbytreatmentandcontrolovertime,lookingfor
theeffecttostartafterthetreatment,notbefore
Itcanbedonemoreformally,asintheKuziemko
It
b d
f
ll
i th K i k &Werker
&W k
paper,byincludingleadsandlags
Anotherapproachistoaddaunitspecifictimetrendsto
th
themodel.Thetimetrendscanbelinear,ormorecomplex,
d l Th ti
t d
b li
l
aswithGentzkows 4th orderpolynomial
Worryifaddingsuchtrendscausesbigchangesinyourresults
Foranyoftheseapproaches,youneedenoughpre
treatmentdatatoestablishacleartrend
PotentialProblems
Forobviousreasons,youcannotestimatetimeinvariantcovariates
intheFEmodel.Ifthevariablewhoseeffectyoucareaboutdoesnt
changeovertime,FEisnotthedesignforyou.
Note,thislimitationdoesnotjustifytheuseofRE(unlessyouhave
otherreasonsforbelievingthenoOVB assumption).Rather,ittells
youthattheremaynotbeenoughvariationinyourdatatoestimate
y
g
theeffectyoucareabout.Findanotherdesign.
ThekeytoFEisthecommontrendsassumption.Inadditiontothe
sortsoftestsdescribedabove.Thinksubstantivelyaboutthe
problemandaskwhetherotherthingchangesimultaneouslywith
the treatment If so you need to find a way to control for them
thetreatment.Ifso,youneedtofindawaytocontrolforthem.
FEestimatesarenotoriouslysusceptibletoattenuationbiasdueto
measurementerror
Watchformiscodingofwithin
Watch for miscoding of withinunit
unitchanges
changes
Notappropriateincaseswherethecompositionofthetreatment
andcontrolgroupschangesasaresultofthetreatment
Example:generouswelfarebenefitsattractrecipientstoastate
p g
p
Isthisreallyanaturalexperiment;isthepolicychangeuncorrelatedwith
thechangeinoutcomeotherthanthroughthechangeintreatment?
Are
Arethereotherthingsthatchangeasaresultofthepolicychange?Couldthey
there other things that change as a result of the policy change? Could they
affecttheoutcome?
Inessence,thecontrolgroup(counterfactual)foreachunitisitself
underadifferenttreatmentstatus(e.g.,beforethepolicychange).Isthisa
good counterfactual? No general answer depends on the application
goodcounterfactual?Nogeneralanswer;dependsontheapplication.
Aretherepreexistingtimetrendswithinunitsthatcouldaccountforthe
observedeffectsofthechangeintreatment?
g
y
g
p y g
g
Isthechangeintreatmentinducedbythechangeinpolicybigenoughto
producemeasurable,quantitativelyimportantchangesinoutcomes?
Doestheanalysisidentifyshorttermorlongtermeffects?
Whichdoyouwant,fortheoreticalreasonsorpolicyrelevance?
RelatedtothechoicebetweenFDandFE,anddependsonlengthofthepanel
R l t d t th h i b t
FD d FE d d
d
l th f th
l
andtheoreticalunderstandingofspeedofadjustment
Doestheanalysisaccountforserialcorrelation(orothertypesofnon
independence)intheresiduals?SeeMostlyHarmless,chap.8.
FixedEffects
EXAMPLE PAPER
EXAMPLEPAPER
HowMuchIsaSeatonthe
SecurityCouncilWorth?
Kuziemko andWerker
Overview
Thebigquestionisinthetitle.Thenarrowerquestion
addressedinthepaperis:
Whatisthecausaleffectofsecuritycouncilmembership
g
onUSforeignaid?
Istheevidenceconsistentwithvotebuying?
Whycantwejustregresssecuritycouncilmembership
on US Aid?
onUSAid?
Of15seats,5arereservedforpermanentmembers
Remaining10seatsarereservedforcountriesserving2
year terms elected from regional blocs Countries
yearterms,electedfromregionalblocs.Countries
campaignfornominationbytheirregion.
Neithercategoryofseatisrandomlyassigned.Sowehave
the usual OVB issues
theusualOVBissues.
Empirical Strategy
EmpiricalStrategy
UseFEmodeltostudydifferenceinUSaidduringyears
y
gy
whenacountryisonthecouncilvs.yearswhenthe
countryisoffthecouncil
Interactsecuritycouncilmembershipwithadummyfor
I t
t
it
il
b hi ith d
f
importantyears(lotsofNYtimescoverage).Ifvote
buyingisthemotive,weshouldexpectbiggeraid
y g
p
gg
effectsinyearswhencouncilisinvolvedinimportant
globalissues.
Useaneventtimespecificationtoconfirmthat
Use an event time specification to confirm that
changesinaiddidnotstartbeforejoiningthecouncil
anddonotcontinueafterleavingthecouncil.
ModelSpecification
p
MainModel
EventtimeModel
Results
EventTimeGraph
Fixed Effects
FixedEffects
EITM2011
Christopher Berry
ChristopherBerry
Concluding Thoughts
ConcludingThoughts
EITM2011
Christopher Berry
ChristopherBerry
WhyWorryaboutResearchDesign?
Withobservationaldata,theassociationbetweenthe
outcomeandtheexplanatoryvariableofinterestislikelyto
be misleading because it partly reflects omitted factors that
bemisleadingbecauseitpartlyreflectsomittedfactorsthat
arerelatedtobothvariables.
Ifthesefactorscouldbemeasuredandheldconstantina
regression,theomittedvariablesbiaswouldbeeliminated.
i
th
itt d i bl bi
ld b li i t d
But,theorytypicallydoesnotspecifyallofthevariables
thatshouldbeheldconstantwhileestimatingarelationship
anditisdifficulttomeasurealltherelevantvariables
d it i diffi lt t
ll th
l
t
i bl
accuratelyeveniftheyarespecified.
Inotherwords,thereisalmostalwayssomeomitted
variablesbias,meaningthatthereisalmostalwayssome
i bl bi
i th t th
i l
t l
doubtaboutthecausalinterpretationofyourregression
Togetplausiblyunbiasedestimates,youneedagood
researchdesign.
hd i
ElementsofResearchDesign
Key Element
KeyElement
Example
Atheorythatleadstotestablehypotheses
Ifvotersdiscriminateagainstwomen,thewomen
whoareelectedmustbebetteronaveragethan
theirmalecounterparts
Anestimand
d
Often acomparativestatic/partialderivative
Inthepotentialoutcomesframework,acausaleffectof
somekind(ATE,ATT,ITT,etc.)
Thedifference
h d ff
inperformancebetweenwomen
f
b
andmen,allelseequal
D t
Data
Districtlevelfederalprojectspending
Di t i t l l f d l
j t
di
Bills sponsoredandcoponsored
Anestimator
Generated froma statisticalmodel
Involves animplicitdefinitionofthecounterfactual,or
an implicit definition of the counterfactual or
controlgroup
District fixedeffectsmodel
f representswithindistrictdifferenceinoutlays
or bills during years with woman legislator vs
orbillsduringyearswithwomanlegislatorvs.
yearswithman
AssumptionsforIdentification
Whatassumptionsarenecessaryforyoutoclaimthat
your estimator isavalidempiricalestimateofthe
yourestimator
is a valid empirical estimate of the
estimand?
UsuallysomeversionoftheCIA
Assumptionsshouldalwaysbeexplicitlystated
Outlays/bills arevalidproxiesforlegislator
performance
Nothing
Nothingelsewithin
else within districtischangingwhensex
district is changing when sex
ofrepresentativechanges
Note:weakerthanCIA,becausedistricttime
invariantunobservables maydiffer
Tests/validationofassumptions
/
p
Assumptionsareusuallynotdirectlytestable(orthey
wouldntbeassumptions)
Butoftenanimplicationoftheassumptioncanbetested
Orrobustnesstochangingassumptionscanbeshown
Includelineartimetrends
Shownochange intrendbeforewomanelected
Effectsdontholdforwidows
Effectsholdusingregressiondiscontinuitydesign
GoodDesign PlausibleAssumptions
Assumptionsofsomekindarealwaysnecessaryfor
identificationinobservationalstudies
Theplausibilityoftheresultsdependsontheplausibility
oftheassumptions(e.g.,CIA)
If
Ifyoudon
you donttbelieveyourassumptions,thenyoushouldn
believe your assumptions then you shouldntt
believeyourresults
Yougettopickyourdataandyourmodel,butyoudont
get to pick your assumptions
gettopickyourassumptions
Thedataandmodelimplythenecessaryassumptions
Ifyouareuncomfortablewithyourassumptions,you
shouldconsiderchangingsomeotherelementofyour
researchdesign
Changingdata,model,orevenestimand
g g
,
,
mayallowmore
y
plausibleassumptions
Identifyingassumptionsshouldalwaysbestatedexplicitly
SummaryofDesignsfromThisWeek
Design
KeyIdentifyingAssumption(Stated Informally)
Regression
Conditionalindependence:Conditionalonthecovariatesincluded
in the model the treatment is as good as randomly assigned No
inthemodel,thetreatmentisasgoodasrandomlyassigned.No
omittedvariablebias.
Matching
Seeabove.
IV
EExclusionrestriction:The
l i
t i ti
Th instrumentaffectsthetreatment,buthas
i t
t ff t th t t
t b th
noeffectonthedependentvariableotherwise.
RD
Continuity:Nothing elsechangesdiscontinuouslyatthecutoff.The
units just above and just below are the same but for the treatment
unitsjustaboveandjustbelowarethesamebutforthetreatment.
FixedEffects
Exceptforthechangeintreatment,thetwogroupsshouldnot
otherwisehavehaddifferentchangesovertime.NoOVBfromtime
varyingomitted
y g
variables.
Notheoremcantellyouwhetheranyoftheseassumptionsisplausibleinyourcase.
Theplausibilityoftheassumptionmustbeassessedbasedonyoursubstantive
k
knowledgeoftheproblemyouarestudying.
l d
f th
bl
t d i
WhatToDoIfYoureStuckwithOLS
Supposedatalimitationspreventyoufromhavingagreatresearch
design.Whentheusualtechniquesrequireidentifyingassumptions
(e g CIA) that are not tenable in a particular case ask what can be
(e.g.,CIA)thatarenottenableinaparticularcase,askwhatcanbe
learnedfromthedata(ifanything)withweaker(orno)
assumptions.Kosuketaughttwousefultoolsforthisearlierinthe
week.
Manskis partialidentificationtechniquesfocusonboundsofa
treatmenteffect,ratherthanpointestimates,basedonveryweak
(orno)assumptions.Whatcanwelearnfromthedatawehave
without making assumptions we donttbelieve?
withoutmakingassumptionswedon
believe?
Rosenbaumssensitivityanalysisattemptstoquantifyjusthow
strongtheCIAisinpractice.
The
ThekeyideaistorevisitonimplicationoftheCIA:controllingfor
key idea is to revisit on implication of the CIA: controlling for
covariates,thetreatmentandcontrolgroupsareequallylikelytohave
receivedthetreatment.Calltheratioofprobabilitiesgamma=1
Thenask,howdifferentwouldtheiroddsoftreatmenthavetobein
order to change the conclusions of the study Big gammamore
ordertochangetheconclusionsofthestudy.Biggammamore
threatfromOVB
ConcludingThoughts
Causalinferenceisfundamentallybasedonclearthinking
andsubstantiveknowledgeoftheselectionprocess,not
fancy econometrics
fancyeconometrics
Researchdesignistheartofcombiningdata,statistics,and
assumptions toproducecrediblecausalinference
Alwaysstateyouridentifyingassumptionsexplicitlyandask
Al
t t
id tif i
ti
li itl
d k
whetheryoucoulddefendthemwithastraightfacebefore
askepticalaudience
Concentrateondemonstratingtherobustnessofyour
C
t t
d
t ti th
b t
f
resultstoalternativeidentificationstrategiesratherthan
findingtheonetruemodel
Notallquestionsareanswerablegivenavailabledata.Just
N t ll
ti
bl i
il bl d t J t
acceptthat.
Pleasefillouttheonlinesurveywithasmuchfeedbackas
possible
ibl
Goforthandconquer!
ADifferentView
InthecurrentissueofPoliticalAnalysis,oneofthe
editorsoffersthefollowingviewoffixedeffects:
g
Theunitspecificinterceptsaresimplypropertiesofthe
variouspoliticalandeconomicsystemsthatwe
currentlycannotorhavenotmeasured.InthelargeN
panels used in labor economics, it is likely the case that
panelsusedinlaboreconomics,itislikelythecasethat
theunexplainedpersontopersonvariationis
idiosyncraticandlikelybothnotworthandimpossible
to model But in comparative political economy we
tomodel.Butincomparativepoliticaleconomy,we
oughttobeabletomodelwhynationsdifferandto
maketheunmodeled unitheterogeneitysmallenough
tobeignorable.Tomymind,thisshouldbeourgoal.