Natural Resources Research, Vol. 21, No.

2, June 2012 ( 2012)

DOI: 10.1007/s11053-012-9170-8

Geostatistical Modeling of Ore Grade Distribution from

Geomorphic Characterization in a Laterite Nickel Deposit
Asran Ilyas1 and Katsuaki Koike2,3
Received 11 July 2011; accepted 23 January 2012
Published online: 15 February 2012

Due to growing consumption of nickel (Ni) in a range of industries, the demand for Ni has
increased rapidly around the world. This trend requires a more precise estimation of
available Ni grade deposits and an identification of factors controlling the grade distribution.
To achieve these requirements, this study applies geostatistical techniques to spatial modeling of the Ni grade in a laterite Ni deposit, with reference to geomorphic features such as
slope gradient and the thickness of limonite and saprolite zones. The Sorowako area in
Sulawesi Island, Indonesia, was chosen as a case study area because it has a representative
laterite Ni deposit with large reserves. Chemical content data from drillhole cores at 294
points were used for the analysis. The slope gradient was found to have a remarkable
correlation with the thickness of the limonite zone, but there was no correlation between the
thickness of the limonite and the saprolite zones above the bedrock. One important feature
was a general correlation between the thickness of the saprolite zone and the maximum Ni
grade in this zone: the grade increases with the thickness of the zone. Co-kriging was
adopted to incorporate this correlation into estimating the maximum Ni grade in the saprolite zone. As a result, the maximum Ni grade in the saprolite zone tends to be high mainly
in areas of slight slope. The Ni accumulation at this topographic feature probably originates
from deep weathering by groundwater infiltrating through well-developed rock fractures.
KEY WORDS: Co-kriging, slope gradient, limonite zone, saprolite zone, nickel grade, Sulawesi.

industrial products, including steel, chemicals, electrical equipment, fabricated metals, household
appliances, and machinery. Its major use is in stainless
steel, which accounts for two-thirds of primary Ni
production. The widespread consumption of Ni, along
with the growth in new developments in the electronics and telecommunication industries, has seen
the demand for Ni increase rapidly since 2000. This
trend requires on-going exploration and exploitation
of Ni deposits around the world, while ensuring Ni
mining is sensitive to natural environments.
There are two types of Ni deposits with different
mechanisms of formation. They are laterite and
magmatic sulfide deposits. The principal ore minerals
are nickeliferous limonite (Fe, Ni)O(OH) and garnierite (a hydrous nickel silicate) (Ni, Mg)3Si2O5(OH)4
of the laterite type and pentlandite (Ni, Fe)9S8 of the
magmatic sulfide type. Laterite deposits are more

INTRODUCTION
Nickel (Ni) exists as a silvery-white lustrous
metallic element that can withstand high temperatures. This characteristic is suitable for producing
heat-resistant equipment such as aircraft engines. In
addition, Ni has a stainless feature (USGS Mineral
Commodity Summaries 2011), and has been widely
used in alloys with other metals (Thompson 2000).
Because of these two favorable metallic features, Ni
has been used as a raw material for many kinds of
1

Graduate School of Science and Technology, Kumamoto

University, 2-39-1 Kurokami, Kumamoto 860-8555, Japan.
2
Department of Urban Management, Graduate School of Engineering, Kyoto University, Katsura C1-2-215, Kyoto 615-8540,
Japan.
3
To whom correspondence should be addressed; e-mail:
koike.katsuaki.5x@kyoto-u.ac.jp

177
1520-7439/12/0600-0177/0  2012 International Association for Mathematical Geology

Ilyas and Koike

178

developed since 1968 by a mining company, PT.

INCO Indonesia (Fig. 1). It is well known that an
accurate estimation of Ni reserves is difficult in laterite deposits because of the complexity of geological
structure, local changes in degree of weathering even
in the same lithology, strong heterogeneity of Ni
grade distribution, differences in Ni concentration
patterns such as vein or disseminated ore body, and
the influence of many factors controlling the Ni grade.
Based on the above background information, this
study is aimed at developing a method for precise
spatial modeling of Ni grade in a laterite deposit. Our
modeling process is implemented by identifying control factors on the grade distribution and applying
geostatistical techniques. Precise Ni grade modeling
can contribute to accurately assessing Ni reserves. The
Sorowako area in Figure 1 is a representative laterite
Ni deposit and considerable exploration data has been
accumulated by PT. INCO Indonesia. Thus, the area
was selected as a suitable test site for grade modeling.
Among the many possible factors, a geomorphic factor is selected as the most dominant because it can

important for land-based resources, because approximately 60% of Ni originates from laterite deposits
out of a total of 130 million ton (Mt) (Gleeson et al.
2003). Laterite Ni deposits have been discovered
dominantly in the tropical and subtropical belts
(Gleeson et al. 2003; Thorne et al. 2009), and are
generated by intense weathering of ultramafic igneous rocks, with the resulting secondary concentrations
of Ni-bearing oxide and silicate minerals. This type of
deposit is commonly derived from chemical weathering of olivine-rich cumulate rocks and their metamorphic derivatives, which have primary initial Ni
contents of 0.20.4% (Brand et al. 1998).
Indonesia is one of the major countries rich in Ni
resources and has world-famous large laterite
deposits. In 2009, world Ni production had reached
1.43 Mt and approximately 13% of the production
came from Indonesia. Indonesia is the second ranked
country for Ni production (Price 2010; Sufriadin et al.
2010). Large laterite deposits are concentrated on
Sulawesi Island, and Sorowako is a typical area containing a hydrous silicate deposit that has been

CELEBES SEA

Central Sulawesi
Metamorphic Belt

MO L
UCC

Ea

GORONTALO BASIN

lu
Pa

East Sulawesi
Ophiolite Belt
Continental Fragments of
, Tukang
Banggai-Sula,
Besi, and Buton

Sula Thrust

lt
Fau

2oS

MAK
ASS
AR S
TRA
IT

0o

West Sulawesi Volcano-Plutonic Arc Belt

Th
rus
t

ch

st S
ang
ihe

wesi Tr
en

A SE

North S
ula
2oN

SULAWESI

4oS

Ma X
Sula Platform
Tol
tano
oT
hru
Fau
st
l
La t
wa
nop
po
BANDA SEA
Fa
ult
BONE
GULF
BUTON

120oE

122oE

124oE

Tukang Besi
Platform

Study Area (PT. INCO,

Indonesia, Sorowako))
Nickel deposit
Thrust Fault
High Angle Fault

126oE

Figure 1. Location of study area (mining area of PT. INCO Indonesia) in South Sulawesi Province, Sulawesi Island, Indonesia with a
geological map and four principal tectonic belts in Sulawesi Island (Mubroto et al. 1994).

Geostatistical Modeling of Ore Grade in Laterite Nickel Deposit

strongly affect the rock-weathering rate, which
determines the thickness of the laterization zone.

GEOLOGY AND DATA FOR ANALYSIS

Geological Setting
The generation of the laterite Ni deposits in the
Sulawesi Island, Indonesia, is closely related to the
setting of this island, which is at the convergence
zone of three tectonic plates, Eurasian, Pacific, and
Indian-Australian plates. Because of high tectonic
activity, many active faults and extensional basins
were developed throughout the Cenozoic era
(Macpherson and Hall 2002), which made the geologic structures very complicated. This activity produced several huge ore deposits in a range of
mineralization and metallogenic provinces.
Sulawesi Island consists of four principal tectonic
belts (Fig. 1): the West Sulawesi Volcano-Plutonic
Arc Belt, the Central Sulawesi Metamorphic Belt, the
East Sulawesi Ophiolite Belt, and the Continental
Fragments of Banggai-Sula, Tukang Besi, and Buton
(Mubroto et al. 1994). The tectonic setting and physiography of Sulawesi Island were formed during the
Neogene orogenesis that generated chains of mountains with peaks over 3,000 m a.s.l. and mineral
deposits of laterite Ni, chromite, gold, and base metals
in the East Sulawesi Ophiolite Belt. Laterite Ni
deposits are mainly located in the complex of Cretaceous ultramafic rocks in the eastern Sulawesi and in
the eastern coast zone (Fig. 1), which is composed of
two Miocene rocks of subduction melange of approximately 10 Ma (Golightly 1979; Suratman 2000). Most
deposits are formed in hills and low mountains, which
are deeply eroded and strongly weathered.
The geology of the Sorowako area and its surroundings can be divided mainly into three rock units:
alluvial and sedimentary lacustrine rocks of Quaternary, Tertiary ultramafic rocks such as Harzburgite,
and Cretaceous sedimentary rocks (Golightly 1979;
Suratman 2000). Laterite Ni deposits in this area were
generated in the Tertiary ultramafic rocks, which are
a part of the serpentinized peridotite zone.
The study area is generally composed of unserpentinized ultramafic rocks. Laterite Ni deposits
around the study area are classified as hydrous silicate
deposits with harzburgite and dunite in the bedrocks
(Gleeson et al. 2003). The weathered strata above the
bedrock could be classified simply into two zones from
the ground surface: the limonite and the saprolite

179

zones, which were composed mainly of hematite and

olivine, respectively. The average thicknesses of the
limonite and saprolite zones are almost the same, 11 m
(PT. INCO Indonesia 2006). Fine grain soils with red,
brown, and yellow colors generally comprise the
limonite zone. However, the saprolite zone is generally a mixture of soils with unweathered host rocks that
retain their original texture and structure. Many fractures have developed in this zone due to weathering,
with boulders forming between the fractures due to
groundwater flowing through the fractures. Garnierite,
which has a high Ni concentration, is usually found at
the rim of these boulders. Below the saprolite zone, the
bedrocks consist of unweathered ultramafic rocks
whose upper parts are well fractured with garnierite
and silicates present as filling minerals in the fractures.

Drillhole Data
Drillhole data at 294 sites were used for Ni grade
modeling. The holes were drilled in a lattice pattern
in a 1.6 km (EW) by 1.0 km (NS) area with a
50-m spacing between adjacent drillholes (Fig. 2).
Drillholes were distributed along the ridges trending
NESW. Because Ni-bearing minerals were concentrated in the weathered rocks, drillings were set to
penetrate the weathered layer and reach the bedrock.
The average depth of the 294 drillholes was 26.62 m.
The sample data collected at each site consisted
of the concentrations (wt%) of four chemical components (Ni, Fe, SiO2, and MgO), rock type, and the
main constituent mineral. These data were measured
from sub-cores of mostly 1-m length that were split
from the original core sample. Accordingly, the data
were collected at approximately 1-m depth intervals
along the drillholes at each site. We initially examined
the correlations between the Ni concentration and the
other three components, but the correlations with Ni
were all poor. Although the original sample data were
multivariate, only the Ni data were used in the analyses because of this lack of correlation. Table 1 shows
a part of the sample data at one site located on a hill.

GEOSTATISTICAL METHODS
AND RESULTS
Selection of Influence Factor
The spatial variability of ore grade in a deposit
is the most important feature for precise assessment

Ilyas and Koike

180

Northing (m)

A115320 A115219 A115319 A102276

14200

A103794 A115460 A115461 A115929 A115557 A102277 A115218 A103965

A115449 A103780
A103785 A103786 A104377 A103787 A104567 A115928 A104674 A104470 A104379 A104675 A104471 A104136 A115118
A115920 A115546
A104560 A104368
A104564 A103788 A115552 A115553 A115554 A115927 A104380 A104575 A115558 A115559 A104472 A115930 A103967 A103966

A104474B A115926 A104566

A115450
A104473 A115459 A104665 A115921 A104369 A115451

14000

A103784 A115454 A115455 A104467 A104468 A104673 A103795 A103789 A115462 A115463 A103790 A103791 A104676 A104677 A104135

A115931 A104376 A115925 A104565 A104561 A115456 A103781 A104562 A104563 A115551 A115458

A115933 A115932 A104460 A104666 A115547 A115452 A115453 A103782 A115549 A103783

A104569 A104570 A104572 A104573 A104574 A115562 A115561 A115560 A104381 A103792

A115550 A104378 A104568 A104571 A103796

A104679 A104385 A104382 A104678A103793

A115935 A115934 A115464 A104476 A115922 A104461 A104370 A104669 A115548 A104464 A104670 A104671 A104465 A115555 A104469 A104684 A104680 A104383

A115938 A115937 A115936 A104576 A104475 A104477 A115923 A104668 A104667 A104463 A104672 A115035 A115036 A104466 A115039 A115040 A115556 A104683 A104681

13800

A103797 A115939 A115940 A104578 A104577

A115466

A115465 A104462 A104371 A104944 A104943 A115037 A115034 A104836 A115038 A104839 A104842 A104685 A104682 A104384

A103798 A115471 A104580 A104585 A104480 A104479 A104579 A104478 A104848 A104846 A104373 A104372 A104937 A104939 A104835 A104936 A104837 A104841 A104840 A104961 A104959

A115472 A115942 A115944 A115941 A104481

A104482
A115564 A115468 A115467 A104847 A104845 A104374 A115924 A104940 A104938 A104834 A104736 A104737 A104838 A104843 A104960

A115473 A115943 A104483 A115566 A115565 A115046 A115047 A115469 A115563 A104849 A104949 A104746 A104375 A104941 A104942 A115033 A104935 A104738 A104743 A115041

13600

A104583 A104582 A104581 A115567 A104957 A104958 A115470 A115045 A104953 A104950 A104844 A115457

A104741A104739

A104740 A104744 A104745 A115042 A115043

A103799 A104686 A104386 A115568 A104956 A104852 A104850 A104952 A115044 A104747 A104388 A104742 A104947 A104946

A104584 A115050 A115049 A115048 A104955 A104954 A104951 A104749 A104748 A104948 A104945

A104387 A115051 A104853 A104854 A104855 A104851 A104752 A104751 A104750

13400

A104687 A115946 A104586 A115052 A115053 A104753

A115945 A115947 A104587

A104754

A115948

5200

0m

5400

250 m

5600

5800

6000

6200

6400

1: Steep slope area

6600

Easting (m)

2: Ridge area
3: Slope with intermediate gradient area
4: Slight slope area
5:Flat slope associated with a valley area or cavity
Drillhole site
Figure 2. Drillhole distribution at 294 sites in the 1.6 km (EW) and 1.0 km (NS) area, superimposed upon the contour
lines of topography. The sites were classified into the five categories of topographic features (see Fig. 3). Location in the
study area is expressed using a plane rectangular local coordinate system in the mining area of PT. INCO Indonesia.

of ore reserves (Hartman 1992). Therefore, a proper

spatial modeling technique, which interpolates and
extrapolates the sample data of ore grade for unsampled points or blocks, is indispensable for this
assessment. The success of geostatistics has been
demonstrated in many case studies of ore grade
estimation (e.g., Koike et al. 1998; Srivastava 2005;
Verly 2005; Emery 2006). In addition, the identification of geologic factors that control the formation
of the ore body and the heterogeneity of ore grade
distribution is also significant (e.g., Koike and
Matsuda 2006). Laterite Ni deposits, in general, are
complicated in shape and chemical composition by
several controlling factors related to climate, topographic condition, tectonic setting, lithofacies,
parent rock type, geologic structure, groundwater,

organic matter content, and rates of weathering

(Brand et al. 1998; Gleeson et al. 2003). Depending
on the size of each laterite deposit, the geomorphic
factor may be the most predominant, because it can
affect other factors such as the groundwater system,
weathering processes, and geological features, on
the layer thickness of the laterization zone (limonite
and saprolite zones) above bedrock.
Thus, the geomorphic factor was expressed in
this study of Ni grade modeling by classifying the
topography into five categories. These are: (1) steep
slope (gradient 45); (2) ridge (regions near the line
of a ridge with gradient <45); (3) slope with intermediate gradient (gradient 20); (4) slight slope
(gradient 5); and (5) flat slope with a gradient<5,
which is associated with a valley area, or cavity

Geostatistical Modeling of Ore Grade in Laterite Nickel Deposit

181

Table 1. Example of Drillhole Sample Data Composed of Four Chemical Concentrations, Rock Type, and Main Constituent Mineral
Drillhole
Number

Depth
Range (m)

Ni
(wt%)

Fe
(wt%)

SiO2
(wt%)

MgO
(wt%)

Layer

A104378
A104378
A104378
A104378
A104378
A104378
A104378
A104378
A104378
A104378
A104378
A104378
A104378
A104378
A104378
A104378

0.201.00
1.002.00
2.003.00
3.004.00
4.005.00
5.006.00
6.007.00
7.008.00
8.009.00
9.0010.00
10.0010.55
10.5511.00
11.0012.00
12.0012.40
12.4013.00
13.0013.55

1.16
0.33
1.21
1.53
1.32
1.32
1.32
1.46
1.21
1.81
2.03
0.52
0.20
2.13
0.26
1.59

47.20
6.60
43.40
44.50
44.40
43.60
34.80
44.10
28.20
9.58
10.65
8.30
7.00
11.40
6.40
10.70

7.00
36.00
9.00
7.70
7.10
7.80
24.50
9.90
26.80
39.54
39.30
41.20
73.20
40.60
39.00
31.90

1.20
42.50
1.30
1.50
1.40
1.40
5.00
1.50
5.10
27.19
26.22
48.50
0.30
28.70
48.50
24.70

lim
lim
lim
lim
lim
lim
lim
lim
sap
sap
sap
sap
sap
sap
sap
sap

Rock
Type

Primary
Mineral

hrz
hrz
hrz
hrz
hrz
hrz
hrz

hmt
hmt
hmt
hmt
hmt
hmt
hmt
hmt
hmt
olv
olv
olv
olv
olv
olv
olv

The depth ranges of data at all sites were classified into three layers, limonite, saprolite, and bedrock.
lim limonite, sap saprolite, hrz harzburgite, hmt hematite, olv olivine.

Rock fractures
Ridge area

Steep slope
Slope with intermediate gradient
50 m

Slight slope
Steep slope
Flat slope associated with a valley area or cavity
200 m

Figure 3. Schematic map of topographic features classified into five categories by slope gradient (steep
slope, ridge, slope with intermediate gradient, slight slope, and flat slope associated with valley area or
cavity).

feature (Fig. 3). These five categories are consistent

the first proposal that considered topography for Ni
grade characterization (Darijanto 1999) which suggested that the thickness of the laterization zones
and the resultant Ni grades were correlated with
these geomorphic features, and the terrain classification based on the slope angle by Van Zuidam
(1985). Suitable threshold angles for the categories
were defined in this study by considering the local
minimums from the histograms of slope angles.

Slope gradient can control the infiltration rate of

surface water into the ground, which further affects
weathering of rocks and the enrichment processes of
Ni. In addition, slope gradient can characterize
geomorphology simply when the study area is small.
Based on this criterion, the drillhole sites were
classified into: steep slope (37 sites), ridge (56 sites),
slope with intermediate gradient (57 sites), slight
slope (105 sites), and flat slope (39 sites), as shown in
Figure 2. This figure shows that the steep slope and

Ilyas and Koike

182
ridge areas are situated on the northeast and the
southwest sides; intermediate gradient areas are
near the northeastern and the southern edges; and
the slight slope and flat areas are in the central and
northern parts of the study area.

Correlation Analysis

Mean thickness of limonite zone (m)

In general, there is a relationship between slope

gradient and thickness of the laterization zone, which
was caused by differences in weathering processes
depending on geomorphology (Ahmad 2001). To
confirm this general relationship, the average thickness of the limonite zones was calculated at every
category of topographic feature as shown in Figure 4.
Clearly, the average thickness tends to increase with a
decrease in slope gradient. This trend was further
examined by considering the topographic detail
under the following two specific conditions. Because
the lithologies and rock properties in a laterite Ni
deposit are known to be highly heterogeneous (e.g.,
Gleeson et al. 2003), we examined the trend more
precisely using only neighboring data.
The first condition was to select the drillholes
located close to each other at the same elevation in
the same category (Fig. 5a). Such data were considered to be in the same geological environment. For
category 1, only three drillholes were at the same
elevation (390 m) and were used for calculating the
average thickness of the limonite and saprolite zones.
Their averages were 3.72 and 12.02 m, respectively

16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
1

2
3
4
Category of topographic feature

Figure 4. Correlation between the category of topographic features (first to fifth category depending on slope gradient as
defined in Fig. 2) and mean thickness of the limonite zones
in each category. Slope gradient decreases from first to fifth
category.

(Table 2). For category 2, four drillholes located on

410 m were selected as shown in the table. The second condition for selecting the drillholes was that
they should be located close to a straight line that was
in the direction of maximum gradient (Fig. 5b). This
selection was intended to use the data that were
considered to be under the same weathering process.
For category 1, four drillholes satisfying this condition were at elevations of 460, 440, 410, and 380 m and
the results are shown in Table 2.
Results from Table 2 of the mean thicknesses of
the limonite zones in the five categories are depicted
in Figure 6. Both sets of results for these topographic conditions show the characteristic that the
thickness increased with a decrease in slope gradient
is more precise than for the gross analysis in
Figure 4. In general, limonite forms the top layer in
laterite deposit areas. Therefore, slope gradient is
identified as an important factor for controlling
weathering depth of the limonite zone; flat topography causes a thicker weathering zone in the shallow depth range, because of greater infiltration of
rain and surface water.
But, the thickness of the saprolite zone below
the limonite zone has no correlation with the
thickness of the limonite zone as shown in Figure 7a
(coefficient of determination R2 = 0.01). This poor
correlation is the same for the data at the same
elevation selected by the first condition (R2 = 0.03)
(Fig. 7b). Therefore, mechanism and dominant factors of weathering on the formation of the saprolite
zones were different from the limonite zone. Plausible dominant factors on the formation of the saprolite zone are geological structure, drainage
pattern, and the position of the water table. These
factors coupled with the maximum rates of leaching
and drainage of the subsequent solution enhanced
both the residual concentration and the accumulation of Ni in the saprolite zone (Gleeson et al. 2003).
Changes in Ni grade with depth at each drillhole site were characterized for every category of
topographic feature. Figure 8a, b, c, and d are the
data on slight slope, flat slope, ridge, and steep slope
areas, respectively. The limonite zones are relatively
thick on the gently sloping areas (a and b), but thin
at the steep areas (c and d). Common to the four
graphs, the Ni grade increases from the limonite to
saprolite zones and reaches a maximum (enclosed by
circle) in the saprolite zones. The grades are low in
the bedrock zone. Figure 8 highlights the fact that
the Ni grades change abruptly within the saprolite
zone and their average values are similar among the

Geostatistical Modeling of Ore Grade in Laterite Nickel Deposit

(a)

183

Topographic surface

Drillhole
Contour line

(b)

Drillhole
Contour line
Figure 5. Two conditions for selecting the drillholes in the same category to identify relationships between
the slope gradient and the thickness of laterization zone, in particular limonite zone in detail, which are for
drillholes located (a) on the same elevation and (b) along a straight line in the direction of the maximum
gradient.

Table 2. Mean Thicknesses of Limonite and Saprolite Zones and the Maximum Ni Grade in the Saprolite Zone at Each Category of
Topographic Feature
Value
Mean Thickness (m)
Drillhole
Location
Same elevation

Different elevations

Category of
Topographic
Feature

Number
of Drillholes

Limonite
Zone

Saprolite
Zone

Mean of Maximum
Ni Grade in the
Saprolite Zone (wt%)

1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5

3
4
3
7
4
4
5
5
7
6

3.72
8.33
11.85
14.80
13.30
2.75
7.06
9.49
17.25
13.06

12.02
11.45
2.03
13.80
9.75
11.76
11.03
5.86
13.16
11.87

1.88
1.88
1.56
3.55
2.11
2.19
2.52
2.00
3.03
2.95

Sample data were classified into two groups: the sites located at similar elevations and the other sites at different elevations by the two
methods in Figure 5.

Ilyas and Koike

(a)
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
1

Mean thickness of limonite zone (m)

Mean thickness of limonite zone (m)

184

(b)
18.0
16.0
14.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
1

Category of topographic feature

Category of topographic feature

Figure 6. Relationships between the categories of topographic feature and the average thicknesses of the
limonite zone using drillhole data located (a) on the same elevation and (b) along the maximum gradient
of slope selected by the two conditions in Figure 5.

(b) 30.0
R2

30.0

= 0.01

25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
0.0

Saprolite zone thickness (m)

Saprolitezone thickness (m)

(a) 35.0

R2 = 0.03

25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0

5.0

10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0

Limonite zone thickness (m)

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

Limonite zone thickness (m)

Figure 7. Scattergrams between the thicknesses of limonite and saprolite zones using (a) all drillhole data
and (b) drillhole data at the same elevations selected by the method in Figure 5a.

four categories. As an example, the averages of Ni

grade data are similar over all drillhole sites and
therefore, the use of averages leads to ambiguous
correlations between geomorphology and Ni grade,
and to featureless mapping of Ni grade in the saprolite zone. The maximum Ni grade is variably
attributable to the degree of weathering, lithofacies,
and topographic features such as the slope gradient.
Moreover, the maximum Ni grade in the saprolite
zone is significant for identifying the most promising
location of the Ni resource and developing a mine
plan and design. Therefore, the saprolite zone is a
target for Ni mining and the maximum Ni grade in
this zone can be an indicator for predicting the
lifetime of a mine. This is a compelling reason for
using the maximum Ni grade for spatial modeling.
It is noted that the thickness of the saprolite
zone was generally well correlated with the maximum Ni grade in this zone as shown in Figure 9.

Although the data were scattered around the

regression lines, the maximum Ni grade tends to
increase with increasing layer thickness and this
trend is common to all five categories (the maximum
R2 for category 2 was R2 = 0.23; and the minimum
for category 3 was R2 = 0.11) and to the overall data
(R2 = 0.26). The saprolite zone is known to become
thick in a well-fractured area, because the groundwater easily infiltrates through rock fractures, causing deep weathering. Ni grade tends to be high in
this circumstance, due to high levels of leaching and
chemical reaction within fractured rocks, in particular under tectonic uplift (Gleeson et al. 2003).

CO-KRIGING FOR NI GRADE MODELING

Co-kriging is a method for estimation that
minimizes the variance of the estimation error by

Geostatistical Modeling of Ore Grade in Laterite Nickel Deposit

(a)

(b)

3.0

1.8
1.5

Ni grade (wt%)

2.5

Ni grade (wt%)

185

2.0
1.5
1.0

1.2
0.9
0.6
0.3

0.5
0.0
0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

0.0
0.0

30.0

5.0

Depth (m)

Ni grade (wt%)

(c)

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

Depth (m)

3.5

(d) 3.5

3.0

3.0

Ni grade (wt%)

2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5

2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5

0.0
0.0

3.0

6.0

9.0

12.0

15.0

Depth (m)
Limonite zone

0.0
0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Depth (m)
Saprolite zone

Bedrock zone

Figure 8. Changes in the Ni grades with depth at four drillhole sites at (a) slight slope, (b) flat slope,
(c) ridge, and (d) steep slope areas. Open circle denotes the maximum Ni grade at each drillhole.

exploiting the cross-correlation between several

variables; the estimates are derived using supplementary variables, as well as the primary variable
(Isaaks and Srivastava 1989). Co-kriging techniques
have been applied widely to metal and nonmetal
resource analyses on maps of ore grade, resource
quality, and reserve assessment (e.g., Dowd 1992;
Koike and Matsuda 2006; Heriawan and Koike 2008;
Juan et al. 2011). In the case of two variables only,
the ordinary co-kriging estimate is a linear combination of the values of the primary and secondary
variables as:
^
w

n
X

bj  wj

j1
n
X
j1

bj 1;

m
X

ai  vi

i1
m
X

ai 0

i1

where wj and vi are the primary and secondary

variables at n and m nearby locations around the
is the estilocation to be estimated, respectively, w
mated value, and ai and bj are the co-kriging weights
that can be obtained from the semivariogram
and cross-semivariogram of the two variables. For

standardized ordinary co-kriging, the nonbiased

condition is changed to:
n
X
j1

bj

m
X

ai 1

i1

Because of the general correlation between the

maximum Ni grade in the saprolite zone, which was
defined as the primary variable, and the thickness of
the saprolite zone as the secondary variable, cokriging was adopted for spatial modeling of the
primary variable. ArcGIS Geostatistical Analyst
(ver. 10) was used for the following variography and
kriging calculations. Experimental semivariograms
of each variable and a cross-semivariogram of the
two variables, c(h)s, were calculated in the horizontal direction using 50 m as the unit of lag distance. As described above, the depths of the
drillholes were much shallower than the size of study
area, and suitable c(h) values could not be obtained
in the vertical direction. Thus, we only considered
the horizontal direction for the variography. The
resultant omnidirectional c(h)s could be fitted by
spherical models as shown in Figure 10. The nugget
effect on the c(h) of the maximum Ni grade in the

Ilyas and Koike

3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
0.0

10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0

R2 = 0.23

5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
0.0

Saprolite zone thickness (m)

Saprolite zone thickness (m)

10.0

Category 4

R2 = 0.17
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
0.0

10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0

Saprolite zone thickness (m)

5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0

Category 5

4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0

R2 = 0.12

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

Saprolite zone thickness (m)

Maximum Ni grade on the zone (wt%)

4.0

Category 2

6.0

Category 3

6.0

R2 = 0.11

5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

Saprolite zone thickness (m)

Maximum Ni grade on the zone (wt%)

R2 = 0.21

Maximum Ni grade on the zone (wt%)

Category 1

5.0

Maximum Ni grade on the zone (wt%)

Maximum Ni grade on the zone (wt%)

Maximum Ni grade on the zone (wt%)

186

All data

7.0

R2 = 0.26

6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
0.0

10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0

Saprolite zone thickness (m)

Figure 9. Scattergrams between the saprolite zone thickness and the maximum Ni grade of the zone for every category of topographic
feature and for all drillhole data. See Figure 2 for the detail of the category.

saprolite zone is the largest and the ranges of c(h)

for each variable (110 and 90 m) are less than the
range of c(h) of the two variables combined (145 m).
This result demonstrates the effectiveness of combining the maximum Ni grade in the saprolite zone
with the thickness of the saprolite zone for the
spatial modeling of Ni grade.
Co-kriging calculations on the distribution of
the maximum Ni grade in the saprolite zone were
implemented using a grid spacing of 10 m. The following discussion is based on the standardized
ordinary co-kriging result, which gave a better estimation than ordinary co-kriging. The estimated
distribution highlights clear anisotropy along NE
SW corresponding with the topography. The result
overlaid topographic features (Fig. 11a), and a perspective view of the topography (Fig. 11b) clarifies
the finding that the maximum Ni grade tended to be
high mainly at the slight slope area, which may be
attributable to the enrichment processes of Ni at
these topographic features. Deep and strong

weathering caused by rock fractures may have

occurred in such groundwater-rich zones and
accordingly, the thick laterization zones that were
formed were conducive to the accumulation of Ni.
Enlargement of the highest grade zone in Figure 11a
reveals large variability in the grades on a much
smaller scale than the interval of two adjacent
drillhole sites (50 m). High and low grades were
estimated locally at sample sites. This characteristic
proves the preciseness of the co-kriging.
Figure 12 represents a cross-validation between
the measured and the predicted co-kriging values of
the maximum Ni grade. The coefficient of correlation between the two values (R) is 0.83 and the root
mean square (RMS) error is 0.80. The co-kriging
result was compared with the ordinary kriging result
using a single variable (i.e., the maximum Ni grade
in the saprolite zone). The maximum Ni grade distribution determined by ordinary kriging, as shown
in Figure 13a, is much smoother than the co-kriging
model and featureless. This smoothing effect

Geostatistical Modeling of Ore Grade in Laterite Nickel Deposit

(b) 12.3

2.1

Semivariogram

Semivariogram

(a) 2.7
1.6
1.1
range

0.5
0

187

100

200

300

9.2
6.1
3.1

400

range

50

Separation distance (m)

100

150

200

Separation distance (m)

Cross-semivariogram

(c) 2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
range

0.5
0

100

200

300

400

Separation distance (m)

Figure 10. Omnidirectional semivariograms of: (a) the maximum Ni grade in the saprolite zone; (b) the
thickness of zone; and (c) a cross-semivariogram combining these two variables. Spherical models were
used to fit all the semivariograms. Each dot represents the semivariances at each separation distance.

appeared clearly in the cross-validation graph in

Figure 13b, where the regression line is much gentler
than for the co-kriging (Fig. 12) or the 45 line. The
RMS error for ordinary kriging is 1.11, which is
larger than the co-kriging RMS value. The superiority of co-kriging over ordinary kriging is clearly
shown by these comparisons, and consequently, the
co-kriging result can be regarded as providing
sufficient accuracy.
To examine the relationships between the
topographic features and the formation of the saprolite zone, and the maximum Ni grade distribution,
the mean and upper and lower quartile values of the
thickness of the saprolite zones and the maximum Ni
grades on the saprolite zones at the five topographic
features were calculated, as shown in Figure 13. This
figure clarifies that the thick saprolite zone and the
maximum Ni grade are located generally at the slight
slope area. Consequently, topography is confirmed to
be a strong factor determining Ni grade distribution.

DISCUSSION
In laterite Ni deposits, many rock fractures tend
to be developed at slight slopes, steep slopes, and
ridge areas, because the rocks in such areas are

relatively hard with considerable resistance to erosion. As demonstrated in Figure 14, the saprolite
zone is thick in the slight slope, steep slope, and
ridge areas. Therefore, the thick saprolite zone may
have formed by the existence of many rock fractures
that have functioned as a path for groundwater
because of high hydraulic conductivity. It is known
that the infiltration of groundwater through the
fractures causes rapid leaching of Ni in the upper
saprolite zone and also rapid deposition of Ni in the
lower saprolite zone (Ahmad 2001). In fact, rock
fractures are developed at every topographic feature
in the study area, but the slight slope is the most
fractured, due to the reverse fault movements under
the regional tectonic stress field. Figure 15 shows
examples of rock fractures at slight slope, steep
slope, and ridge areas, which confirm a dense distribution of fractures almost all filled with garnierite.
High Ni grade at the slight slope area depicted
in Figure 11 confirms that this topographic feature is
a catchment capable of gathering much rain and
surface water, which in part becomes groundwater.
Groundwater causes leaching and enrichment of Ni,
as well as causing the fractured zones and deep
weathering of both the limonite and the saprolite
zones. As a result, both zones become thicker with a
high Ni grade peaking on the slightly sloping areas.

Ilyas and Koike

188

500 m

0m

(a)
Maximum Ni grade (wt%):
Category of
topographic feature:

0.00 0.80

1:
2:
3:
4:
5:

0.81 1.34
11.35 1.72

(b)

1.73 1.97
1.98 2.35
2.36 2.89
2.90 3.69
3.70 4.86
4.87 6.57
N

6.58 9.06

Figure 11. Distribution of the maximum Ni grade in the saprolite zone by co-kriging superimposed upon (a) the category of topographic
feature and (b) a perspective view of topography. Enlargement of the highest grade zone is included in (a).

CONCLUSION

Predicted value (wt%)

7.0
RMS = 0.80

6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0 4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Measured value (wt%)

Figure 12. Scattergram for cross-validation of
co-kriging accuracy between measured and predicted co-kriging values of the maximum Ni
grade in the saprolite zone.

For precise spatial modeling of Ni grade in a laterite deposit, this study identified factors controlling
the grade distribution and then applied geostatistical
techniques to a world-famous Ni deposit area in
Sulawesi Island, Indonesia. At first, geomorphic
characteristics such as topographic features and the
thickness of the laterization zone (limonite and saprolite zones above the bedrock) and the maximum Ni
grade in the saprolite zone were used for the correlation analysis between every pair of sites in the
dataset. The topographic features were classified into
five categories depending on the magnitude of slope
gradient from steep to flat areas. The slope gradient
was shown to have a strong spatial correlation with the

Geostatistical Modeling of Ore Grade in Laterite Nickel Deposit

(a)

Maximum Ni grade (wt%)

189

(b)

0.00 0.80

7.0

1.35 1.72
1.73 1.97
1.98 2.35
2.36 2.89
2.90 3.69
N
0m

Predicted value (wt%)

0.81 1.34

3.70 4.86

250 m

RMS = 1.11

6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0

4.87 6.57

Measured value (wt%)

6.58 9.06

Figure 13. Distribution of the maximum Ni grade in the saprolite zone by ordinary kriging analysis (a) and a scattergram
showing the cross-validation of the ordinary kriging accuracy (b).

(b)

20.0

Maximum Ni grade in
the saprolite zone (wt%)

Saprolite zone thickness (m)

(a)

16.0
12.0
8.0
4.0
0.0
1

Category of topographic feature

4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
1

Category of topographic feature

Figure 14. Relations of the mean (closed circle) and the upper and lower quartiles (top and bottom of
bar) of (a) the thickness of saprolite zone and (b) the maximum Ni grade in the zone to category of
topographic feature.

thickness of the limonite zone; the thickness of the

limonite zone increased with a decrease of the slope
gradient. On the other hand, there were no correlations in the thickness between the saprolite and the
limonite zones, and between the slope gradient and the
thickness of saprolite zone. The most important trend
was a general spatial correlation between the thickness
of the saprolite zone and the maximum Ni grade in that
zone; the maximum Ni grade in the saprolite zone
increased with the thickness of the zone.
Because the maximum Ni grade in the saprolite
zone is one of the foremost properties for mine
planning and description of a laterite Ni deposit, cokriging was adopted to construct a distribution
model of the grade with respect to the correlation
with the thickness of the saprolite zone. The resultant co-kriging model highlighted that the maximum
Ni grades in the saprolite zone were generally

highest at the slight slope area. Ni accumulation at

this area probably originates from deep weathering
caused by the development of rock fractures and
passing of groundwater through the fractures from
significant water catchments.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The authors express their sincere thanks to PT.
INCO Indonesia for permission to use the data set.
Sincere thanks must be extended to Absar, Sudarmin,
Malik Hakim Sopi, Ade Kadarusman, Robby
Rafianto, Mashury, Amir Mahmud, Arifin, Kamto,
Yonas, Aliahni Djafar, Selvi Yuminti, and Asriani
for their constructive help in the field and in the
office, and furthermore to anonymous two reviewers

Ilyas and Koike

190

Rock fracture was filled

fracture was filled
by garnieriteRock
mineral
by garnierite mineral

0.3 m
Rock fracture was filled
by garnierite mineral

Rock fracture was filled

by garnierite mineral

0.1 0.4
m m

0.15 m

Northing (m)

A115320 A115219 A115

A115319
5319 A102276

14200

A103794 A115460 A1154

1037
786 A104377 A103787 A104567 A115928 A104674 A1044
103786
A115920 A115
A104474B A115926 A104566

14000

Steep slope area

0
3788 A115552 A115553 A115554 A115927 A104380 A1045
03788

A115450
A104473 A115459 A104665 A115921 A104369 A115451

A103784 A115454 A115455 A104467 A104468 A104673 A103795 A103789 A1154

A115931 A104376 A115925 A104565 A104561 A115456 A103781 A104562 A104563 A115551 A115458 A104569 A104570 A104572 A104573 A104574 A115562 A115561 A115560 A104381 A103792

A115933 A115932 A104460 A104666 A115547 A115452 A115453 A103782 A115549 A103783

A115550 A104378 A104568 A104571 A103796

Ridge area

A104679 A104385 A104382 A104678A103793

A115935 A115934 A115464 A104476 A115922 A104461 A104370 A104669 A115548 A104464 A104670 A104671 A104465 A115555 A104469 A104684 A104680 A104383

Slope with intermediate

gradient area

A115938 A115937 A115936 A104576 A104475 A104477 A115923 A104668 A104667 A104463 A104672 A115035 A115036 A104466 A115039 A115040 A115556 A104683 A104681

13800

A103797 A115939 A115940 A104578 A104577

A115466

A115465 A104462 A104371 A104944 A104943 A115037 A115034 A104836 A115038 A104839 A104842 A104685 A104682 A104384

A103798
A104580 A104585 A104480 A104479 A104579 A104478 A104848 A104846 A104373 A104372 A104937 A104939 A104835 A104936 A104837 A104841 A104840 A104961 A104959
A103798 A115471
A115
5471 A1045

5941 A104481
59

A104482
A115564 A115468 A115467 A104847 A104845 A104374 A115924 A104940 A104938 A104834 A104736 A104737 A104838 A104843 A104960

Slight slope area

565 A115046 A115047 A115469 A115563 A104849 A104949 A104746 A104375 A104941 A104942 A115033 A104935 A104738 A104743 A115041
5

13600

567 A104957 A104958 A115470 A115045 A104953 A104950 A104844 A115457

5

A104741A104739

A104740 A104744 A104745 A115042 A115043

Flat slope associated with

a valley area or cavity

568 A104956 A104852 A104850 A104952 A115044 A104747 A104388 A104742 A104947 A104946
5

A115048 A104955 A104954 A104951 A104749 A104748 A104948 A104945

115049
115
50

A104854 A104855 A104851 A104752 A104751 A104750

104853
104
48

13400

4586 A115052 A115053 A104753

45

4587
45

A115948

5200

0m

Drillhole site

A104754

5400

5600

5800

500 m

6000

6200

6400

6600

Sample location

Easting (m)

Figure 15. Examples of rock fractures in the saprolite zone at ridge area (right), slight slope area (middle), and steep slope area (left).
Almost all fractures are filled with garnierite.

for the valuable comments and the detailed suggestions that helped improve the clarity of the manuscript.

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