A Cause of Tap Water Supply Shortage in Arba Minch Town:

Multiple Linear Regressions

A Senior Research Project Report Submitted To

Arba Minch University
College of Natural Sciences
Department of Statistics

In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirement for the Degree of Bachelor of

Science in Statistics Department

BY: Beyene Balta

Asres Tasew

Advisor: Defaru Debebe

June, 2012
Arba Minch, Ethiopia

Acknowledgement
First of all we would like thank the almighty God and his mother for giving us the aptitude,
endurance, determination and guidance throughout the ups and downs of life with your light, we
saw may way!
Although it is not possible to mention all in a few sentence we would like to thank those have
been particularly important to my work. We feel great pleasure to express may special thanks to
our advisor Defaru Debebe for his critical and valuable comments in the case of this study.
We are also thankful to our family for sending us to school, encouragement and their financial
support.
Finally, we are grateful to all best friends to encouragement and moral assistance.

i
Abbreviations

BOWRD------------------------------------------------SNNPR bureau of water resource development

CSA-----------------------------------------------------central statistical agency
MDG---------------------------------------------------millennium development goal
MOWR------------------------------------------------ministry of water resource
UAP---------------------------------------------------universal access plan
WASH------------------------------------------------water sanitation and hygiene
WHO--------------------------------------------------world health organization
WSSO-------------------------------------------------water supply service office

ii
Abstract

The study was intended to identify the major causes of tape water supply shortage in Arba Minch
Town. Water as a vital resource for household, agriculture, industrial use can evidently slow
down the economic and social advancement of society. In the same manner insufficient tape
water supply is being raised as a considerable economic and social problem in Arba Minch town.
Both primary and secondary Data were used for this study. The primary data were collected
directly from the respondents through questionnaire, interview, group discussion and physical
observation. Fifty six sample household were selected from four kebeles and, sample household
from sample kebele were selected by using systematic sampling techniques, in this analysis
descriptive like central tendency (mean, median, mode) and measure of dispersion, percentage,
average and other simple measurements used. And also inferential part multiple linear regration,
Pearson correlation and analysis of variance. As the finding of the study, causes of tape water
supply such as quality and quantity factors have been identified. The WSSO should be
capacitated by well-educated and skilled man power and also materials. The stakeholders of the
town water supply should integrate and carried out their respective duties in a time to support the
WSSO.

iii
COUNTENT

page
Acknowledgement.i
List of abbreviation..ii
Abstract... iii
1. INTRODACTION
1.1 Background of the Study1
1.2 Statement of the Study....2
1.3 Objectives of the Study ..2
1.4 Significance of the Study....2
1.5 Scope of Study.3
1.6 Limitation of the Study..3
2. LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 Water Supply System in Ethiopia.4
2.2 Causes of Water Supply Shortage....5
3. METHODOLOGY
3.1 The Study Area...6
3.2 Data Source.....6
3.3 Study Variable6
3.4 Sampling Design.....7
3.5 Sample Size Determination7
3.6 Multiple Linear Regression...8
3.7 Correlation Analysis..9
4. RESULT AND DISCUATION
4.1 Descriptive statistics, characteristics of the sample household.10

4.1.1 Educational level of the respondents...11

4.1.4 House holding of the sample household .....................11
4.2 Inferential part.15
4.2.1 Regression analysis
....15
4.2.2 Normal probability plots of
residuals..19
4.2.3 Residuals versus fit for price for
bill....16
4.3 Regression
equation..
.17
5. CONCULUSION AND RECOMMANDATION

5.1 Conclusions....20
5.2 Recommendation....21
6. APPENDEX
REFERANCE

1 .INTRODACTION
1.1 Back Ground of the Study
One of the targets of millennium development goal/MDG/ calls on countries to have, by 2015
proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water .The indicators used in
this document to assess the proportion of people with sustainable access to safe drinking water is
official millennium development goal /MDG/ indicators the proportion of population using an
improved water source, urban and rural / Zegay Zagie 2010-2011/.
In African 602 million people had access to improved drinking water source in /2006/.this shows
coverage increased from 56% in 1990 to 64% 2006.the rate at which Africans gained access to
improved drinking water source .In Africa including Ethiopia access to improved drinking water
coverage in urban Africa decreased from 87% in 1990 to 85% in 2006 though 134 million people
in urban areas have gained access to an improved drinking water source since 1990.
Of 73,918,505 population in Ethiopia 83.9% are rural and the rest 16.1% are urban from /CSA/
central statistical agency /2008/.Ethiopia has adopted the international millennium declaration
and water supply by /UAP/ universal access plan and Ethiopian parliament in 2005 for the
current guiding plan form work for wash or water sanitation and

hygiene the millennium

development goal to attain 70% of national potable water access in 2015.But waste of different
sources can cause the quality problem on the availability problem on the availability water
,climate change can affect the availability of water .Rapid population growth and expanding
global economy have exacerbated the availability improving water and sanitation program is
cervical to spurring growth and sustaining economic development.
Technically the design period of the tape water supply system of Arba Minch town is completed
in 1997. The water supply system is operating for almost doubled population using the same
system components accepts some replacements. There are design problems like less reliability of

socio-economic data for water demand analysis which result in mismatch between demand and
supply even in the design period. Tape water loss is also significant both in the storage facilities
and in the distribution network.

1.2 Statement of the problem

Water as vital resource for house hold, agriculture and industrial use can evidently slow down the
economic and social advancement of society, in the same manor in sufficient water supply is
being raised as a considerable problem in Arba Minch town .Women and girls are facing work
load in fetching water from streams of longer distance and from area of the town with better
water supply. Fewer water supplies are big problem in construction educational institutions.
Therefore this study will make an effort to show the problem and prospects of water supply
shortage in Arba Minch town.
1.3 Objectives of the study
The general objective of this study is to identify the major cause of tap water supply shortage in
Arba Minch town. In line with this the specific objective aims:
To determine the causes of tap water supply shortage system of Arba Minch town.
To fit the statistical model for the monthly consumption of the tap water
1.4 Significance of the study
This study may publicize the state of the problem inform the major cause of the problem to the
users and policy makers in case of most kebeles of Arba Minch town get water on shift basis
/four days in a week/.The pressure in the water system fails to reach to some other kebeles of
relatively high elevation and results in dry pipes for
electromechanical failure in the

long dry times there are repeated

water system .The town in

habitants, construction firms

,educational institution frequently ask for water supply step up through the quality problems are
not being reported.

1.5 Scope of the study

The scope of this study focus on the role of water supply for domestic or house hold and non
domestic /commercial, institutional and industrial/consumption. Similarly the study is about the
problem of water supply in Arba Minch town. Water problems are country wide both rural and
urban, but water supply problems in rural areas differ from urban areas. Even with in urban areas
water supply shortages are caused by different factors. The problem also affects a different
amount of population. Arba Minch is a zonal center with considerable population as compared to
other urban centers in the area considered. And also the water supply service of Arba Minch
town is led by a structured office under the town administration which others lack.
1.6 Limitation of the study
The Problems encountered in the course of study of this research include finance and time
constraints that hindered looking at the issue in more detail. There was also data adequacy and
reliability problem. For instance to see trends of water production and consumption long years
data is important. However, the available data for water production and consumption is of three
or four years. The water loss data is also not reliable because the water produced has not been
measured for some years. Some households also give unreliable data regarding their income and
time spent to collect water.

2. REVIEW OF LITERATURE
Water supply:-providing water for domestic, economical, industrial land institutional use /Zegye
Zagie, 2010-11/ Water supply involves collection, treatment and distribution water in early days
people lived in small areas and their habits were such that they consumed water for drinking,
bathing and cooking only. This necessary water was collected from surface source like rivers,
lakes and ponds.
But as a population increased towns and cities developed and the habits of people improved.
Trades and industries

were established and as result the demand for water increased

considerably .The original small water source become insufficient and large water source
become inevitable .A large ware may not safe for drinking .The role of water supply that a
collection conveyance treatment and distribution of water comes in handy hear /Tesfa Delesho
2010/
For every town or city an administrative body, either the municipality cooperation, has been
established to look after the public health, and to supply potable water to consumers after proper
treatment.
2.1 Water Supply System in Ethiopia
The components of water supply system in Ethiopia face a number of problems like accessed
major components of water supply system of Nazareth town, the classified the components in
two source, production and distribution /Yimer Mohammed 1992/ .The issue given attention
under source are water availability of quantity and quality of water. Since water source for
Nazareth are availability of water refers to the discharge of the bore hole and quantity refers to
fluoride concentration .The concerns seen under production are capacities of the bore hole and
the actual production. Irregular operation of the bore hole, seasonal variation of the bore hole,
power supply in consistencies and water losses.

The distribution components sub divided in to reserves, pipe line networks, meter connection and
public stud pipes .The number and capacity of the rivers and the relative of ground elevation
where it is situated influence its function, density of special attention of pipe lines and relive are
issues treated under pipe line network .meter connection is seen to be influenced by relief,
distance from the reserves and financial constraints to the users. The efficiency of public stand
pipes is taken to be influenced by the number and rational distribution, adequate and continuous
supply of ware
2.2 Causes of Water Supply Shortage
A number of factor which affect urban water supply shortage the following, Environment
degradation ,economic development distribution efficiency of water supply inconsistency of the
system ,climatic changes. (Temperature and rain fall variability). Topographic of the area,
population growth and urbanization, water looses in the system, capacity of town s to manage
the water system. /Zagaye Zagie, 2010-11/. Environmental degradation affects both the quality
and quantity of water resource. World water week synthesis report (2008) indicated that many of
action for reducing environmental degradation are focused at local level and scaling up this to
the river base in and regional level, and the ability trailer solutions are major challenge
ecosystems. Emerge from greater wealth and consumption and increase population .This threats
were exacerbated by climate change and must be addressed together.

3. METHODOLOGY
3.1 The Study Area
Arba Minch is one of the zonal towns in SNNPR. It located at 505km south of Addis Abeba and
278km from the regional town, Hawassa. The area is low land in southern part of Ethiopia main
rift valley. The elevation ranges from 1200m.a.s.l at the northern end to 1320m.a.s.l the southern
end. The town is enclosed by two rift valley lakes, Abaya & chamo in the east south east
respectively, as a rift valley area its at the foot the western escarpment. The Gamo high land
starts from the top of the escarpment.
Administratively the town encompasses four sub towns that are answerable to the administration.
There are 11 kebeles in the town .The town municipality also coordinates town planning works
under the town administration. The total population is 74843 in 2007(CSA, 2008) and is notable
destination of tourist from home and abroad. Moreover social & economic activities are
developing in line with developing educational institution& investment.
3.2 Data Source
Both primary and secondary data will use for this study. The primary data will be obtained
through questionnaire, interview, group discussion and physical observation where as secondary
data from design document standard of regulation, different books, magazines and internet web
sati related with water supply and sanitation
3.3 Study Variable
There are two types of variable in our study
A. Dependent variable is
Price of bill
B.Independent variable are
Amount of water consumed per month
Family size

3.4 Sampling Techniques

The sampling techniques in our study is stratified random sampling, we will be stand from
stratifying the kebeles in Arba Minch town in to area with critical water problem and better water
supply .This kebeles with better water supply are only three (3) which are in sub town Sikela,
Secha and Nechsar according to BOWRD/Desta Horecha2006/: SNNPR bureau of water
resource development
3.5 Sample Size Determination
In the planning of sampling survey one of the first considerations is a sample size determination.
The population of this study is the total numbers of Arba Minch town population in selected
kebeles .The selected kebeles such as Chamo from Secha sub town, Delfana from Sikela sub
town, Idgetber from Nechsar sub town and Waze from Abaya sub town are taken an strata of this
study .The minimum sample size is determined using the following formula.
n =no/1+no/N
Where no = z2/2WiPiQi/di2

i =1, 2, 3..

no =initial sample size

P=the proportion of chance to selection of individual or person
Q=1-p
d=the acceptance margin of error
N=the total population in four selected kebeles
Wi=the total population on the selected kebeles divisible by the total population
After determination the sample size n of the target population it is allocated as ni for each
kebeles using the formula.
ni =Ni/N *n
Where ni =the sample size of ith kebeles
Ni =the total population of the ith kebeles.

3.6 Multiple Linear Regressions

Regression model is mathematical education that provides production .The values dependent
variables based on the known values of two or more independent variable. Particular form of r
egression model depends on the measure of problem under study and on the measure and types
of the data variables multiple linear regression contain two or more independent variables and
one response variable .in our study we choose two independent variable and dependent
variable ,price and number of consumers ,result indignant variable (explanatory variable) .The
dependent variable which is linear model regression is increase or decrease by depending on
independent variables ,
The Multiple Linear Regression Model are
Y^ = ^ 0+ ^1 x 1+ ^ 2 x2
Y=response variable
Xi=explanatory variable
0 =constant variable (intercept of regression line)
1 , 2 =slope of the regression coefficient
E=error term = (g-y)
Assumption of multiple Regression model

Variables are normally distributed

Assumption of a linear relationship between the independent and dependent variable
Variables are measured without error
Assumption of homoscedasticity(constant variance)

Hypothesis Test
It is the statement about the value of population parameters ,hypotheses testing producer based
sample evidence and probability theory used to determine whether the hypotheses is reasonable
statement and should be reject or un reasonable and should be rejected .
number of consumer has no values in explain the dependent variable
That is H0: 1=0
H1:1= different from zero
price has no value explaining the dependent variable of monthly consumption of tap
water
That is

H0: 1=0

Vs H1: 2 = different from zero

3.7 Correlation Analysis

A Pearson correlation coefficient measures the extent to which two variables

are linearly

related .the correlation coefficient only measures a linear relationship .if the correlation
coefficient is zero there is no linear relationship exists .the range of correlation coefficient is
from -1 to +1 and tells us two things about the linear relationship between two variable.
1) Strength: the larger absolute value of the coefficient, the strength the relationship
between the variables an absolute value of one indicates prefect relationship and
intermediate value is interpreted as weak moderated or strong correlation depending on
our objectives and requirements
2) Direction: the sign of the coefficient indicates the direction of the relationship of both
variables tend to increase or decrease together .the coefficient is positive if the variables
tend to decrease

4. RESULT AND DISCUATION

4.1 Descriptive statistics for characteristics of the sample household
4.1.1 Educational level of the respondents
The survey result show that concerning their educational level 28.57% are 1-6 grade and those
who are first degree and above are 5.38% and 7-10 grade which estimated 32.14% out of the
total respondents in the study area and the rest are in group 10 +1-3 is complete and 3.57% are
illiterate
Table 4.1; shows the Educational level of the respondents
Education level
Illiterate

No of respondents
2

percentage
3.57

1-6 grade

16

28.57

7-10 grade

18

32.14

10+1-3

12

21.42

12 complete

8.92

1st degree and above

Total
Source; primary survey, 2012

3
56

5.38
100

4.1.2 House holding of the sample household

House holding of the sample household is also surveyed 85.7% are private houses, 9% are rented
from kebele, 5.3% rented from private.

Table 4.2; shows the House holding system

House holding
Private

No of respondents
48

percentage
85.7

Rented from private

5.3

Rented from kebele

Total
Source; primary survey, 2011

5
56

9
100

The sample households have different occupations, this include government employees, trade/
business, daily laborers, service providers, pensioners and others. Out of the total 56 responded
sample house holds 44.4 percent are government employees that constitute the dominant number
of the sample households. Businessman constitutes 14.1% where as 10.1% of the sample
household is pensioner farmers and daily. Laborers constitute of 7.1% each. The remaining 6.1
and 18.2 % are service providers and other (mixed occupations, dependents) respectively
income characteristics of the surveyed households show that 22.1% of the households lie in the
income group 301-600 birr followed by 601-900 birr with percentage of 16.1 and 101-300 birr
and >2001 birr with 15.12%. The rest 14.1%, 3.5% and 2.3% are in the income groups 9001200birr, 1800-2100birr, 1501-1800 birr respectively.

Descriptive Statistics: price for bill, family size, amount of water consumption per month
per household.

Table 4.3; general descriptive Statistics

water
consumed
per month

Valid

Mean
Median
Mode
Std. Deviation
Variance
Minimum
Maximum
Sum

family

per house

size

hold

price for

56

56

bill(birr)
56

5.3393
5.0000
4.00
2.02957
4.119
1.00
10.00
299.00

2223.2143
2100.0000
1800.00
716.30138
513087.662
1200.00
4200.00
124500.00

18.6198
18.6500
23.00
5.99138
35.897
9.32
38.27
1042.71

From the above table the mean or average price of water consumed is 18.612, the mean of family
size and amount of water consumed per month are 5.339 and 2223.214 respectively. The median
as the result which shows price for bill are half of the observation lie above and half of
observation lies below the median 18.65 and the median as the result which shows family size
and amount of water consumption per month half of observation lie above and half of
observation lie below the median 5.00 and 2100 respectively. The mode is shows the highest
frequency, for price the highest frequency is 23.00 and for family size and amount of monthly
water consumption is 5.00 and 1800.00 respectively. The minimum and maximum values for
price are 9.31 and 38.27 respectively, for family size are 1.00 and 10.00,for amount of monthly
water consumption is 9.32 and 38.27 respectively.
Table 4.4 Water consumed per month per house hold
Water consumed
per month per
household in
liters(L)
1200.00
1500.00
1800.00
2100.00

Frequency
7
3
14
6

Percent
12.5
5.4
25.0
10.7

2400.00
3000.00
3600.00
4200.00
Total

13
8
4
1
56

23.2
14.3
7.1
1.8
100.0

From the above table the highest frequency for water consumed per month are 1800.00 which
contain 25.0% and lowest one are 4200.00 which contain 1.8%.

C
o
u
n
t

1
4
1
2
1
0
8
6
4
2
01
2
0
.1
5
0
.1
8
.w
0
2
1
0
.
2
4
0
.
3
0
.
0
3
6
0
.
4
2
0
.
a
te
rc
o
n
s
u
m
e
d
p
e
rm
o
n
th
e

Figure 1; water consumed per month per house hold

The above bar chart indicates that for water consumed per month the highest and the lowest
frequency are 1800.00 and 4200.00 respectively.

4.2 Inferential statistics

4.2.1Regression analysis and diagnostic tools for checking regression assumption

Residual plot is necessary to see weather error terms are normally distributed or not, as stated by
in the assumptions of regression equation and to see linearity between the response variable
,price for bill and explanatory variable (family size and amount of monthly water
consumption).Some of diagnostic tools checking regression assumption is include.
4.2.2 Normal probability plots of residuals
The points in this plot should generally form a straight line if the residuals are normally
distributed. If the points on the plot depart from a straight line, the normality assumption may be

invalid

E
x
p
e
c
td
C
u
m
P
ro
b

N
o
r
m
a
l
P
l
o
t
f
p
r
i
c
e
f
o
r
b
i
l
.0
1
0
.8

.0
0
6
.0
4
.0
2
.00
.2O
.b
0
4
0
.
6
0
.
8
1
.
0
s
e
rv
d
C
u
m
P
ro
b

Figure 2; normal probability plots of residuals

t00..755rn
D
e
d
eN
o
rm
a
lP
-lo
tfp
ric
e
fo
rb
il

Since the point in this plot form a straight line, the residuals are normally distributed .The normal
plot

shows

as

approximately

linear

pattern

that

is

consistent

with

normal

disitribution.Therefore the normality assumption is valid.

4.2.3 Residuals versus fit for bill price

D
e
v
ia
to
n
fro
m
N
o
rm
a
l

It is used to check the assumption of error term is constant or not (i.e. to examine whether there

is hetroscadasticity or not), if the residual plot has no pattern, and then there is no hetroscadistics.

.0
0
2
5
.-0
.-0
2
5
.50
.0
.2O
.b
0
4
0
.
6
0
.
8
1
.
0
s
e
rv
d
C
u
m
P
ro
b

Figure 3; Residual versus fitted value

The above plot of residual versus fits shows that there is no pattern .It indicates that there is no
hetroscadisticity economic problem in the model. This implies that whatever the value of the
price, the variance of the error term is constant (homoscadasticity).

4.3 The regression equation for water consumption of bill price

versus family size and amount of water consumption per month
Table 4.5 outputs of coefficients
Coefficients (a)
MODEL
B
1

(Constant)

Unstandardized
Coefficients
Std.Error
4.143

water consumed
.005
per month
family size
.444
a .Dependent Variable: price for bill

Standardized
Coefficients
Beta
1.739

Sig.
t
2.382

.021

.001

.651

5.040

.000

.381

.150

1.163

.025

The regression equation is

Y^ = ^ 0+ ^1 X 1 + ^ 2 X 2
Price for bill=4.143+0.005water consumed per month+0.444family size

From the above table the value of bill of price is 4.143; one household may incurs cost 4.143
birr, if house hold do not use water per month because of the service supplied by government.
1=0.005 indicates that the values of the price increased by 0.005 when the water consumption is
increased by one unit and 2=0.444 indicates that the values of the price increased by 0.444
when the water consumption is increased by one unit.

Table 4.6 output for correlation between price of bill, monthly consumption water and family
size
Mode
l

R Square Adjusted
R Square

Std. Error
of the

Estimate
1
.768(a)
.590
.574
3.90882
a Predictors: (Constant), family size, water consumed per month
R-square =59.0% indicates that, 59.0% of the dependant variable (bill of price) is explained by
the two explanatory variable (monthly consumption of water and family size).
Table 4.7 partial correlation
Correlation
zero order

Partial

Part

0.761

0.569

0.443

0.627

o.158

0.102

constant
monthly
water
consumptio
n

family size
From the above output Pearson correlation between monthly consumption water and the price of
bill is 0.569.This shows that there is high positive linear relationship between monthly
consumption of water and the price. And the Pearson correlation between family size and price is
0.158 is show that there is weakly positive relationship between family size and price. Since in
the case of monthly water consumption the p-value is less than alpha-value i.e. (0.00<0.05), we
can say that there is sufficient evidence at alpha (0.05) that the correlation is not zero.Paritial
correlation measures the degree of association between two random variables, with the effects of
a set of controlling random variables remove.

Table 4.7 Analysis of variance (ANOVA)

ANOVA (b)

Sum of
Mean
Squares
Df
Square
F
1
Regression 1164.537
2
582.268
38.109
Residual
809.779
53
15.279
Total
1974.316
55
a Predictors: (Constant), family size , water consumed per month
Model

Sig.
.000(a)

b Dependent Variable: price for bill

Interpretations: - from the above analysis of variance table output, over all p-value are less than
alpha-value i.e.(0.00 l<0.05).We can conclude that, over all F- tests are significance
difference .That means the explanatory variables are significant effect on the model(response
variable ).

5. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMANDATION

5.1 Conclusions
From the analysis of multiple linear regression we concluded that there is linear relationship
between the price of bill and those of two explanatory variables(water consumed per month per
household and family size).That means the water consumed per month per household and family
size are mostly explain the price of bill.
The p-value for the family size is less than the alpha values i.e. (0.0250<0.05) which leads to
the reject the null hypothesis .We can conclude that the family size has significance effect on the
price of bill. From the analysis of variance table output, over all F-test are significance difference
that means the explanatory variables are significant effects on the dependant variable (price).
In generally, tape water supply shortage is caused by increments of family size (household size)
and the amount of water consumed per month per household.
Pearson correlation between monthly consumption water and the price of bill is 0.569.This
shows that there is positive linear relationship between monthly consumption of water and the
price. And the Pearson correlation between family size and price is 0.158 is show that there is
moderate relationship between family size and price.
R-square =59.0% indicates that, 59.0% of the dependant variable (price the bill) is explained by
the two explanatory variable (monthly consumption of water and family size).
Socio-economically the population in the town increases extensively causing demand increase
and lowering the water amount supplied per capital per month. The life standard changes in the
residents of the town also increase water demand and consumption. Economical development
activities are widening and consuming much tape water. Some behavior of the public in using
water result in water wastage and losses; and their willingness to pay for water affects the
revenue of the WSSO and this intern affects the investment of the WSSO on the tape water
supply.

5.2 Recommendations

Adequacy and consistency of tape water supply is important for socio-economic well being of
residents of a town. Therefore, to reverse the existing inadequacy and inconsistency of water
supply and to ensure the socio-economic well being of the residents of Arba Minch town the
following measure should be taken.
Environmental researches that point out the recharge areas of the existing and expected tape
water supply source should be conducted. This has to be followed by integrated and continuous
management of the recharge areas. Environmental impact assessment should be done for both the
projects on the up streams of the source and expansion of tap water.
Long term investment on tape water supply of the town should be given the attention by all
concerned bodies including the users, wider institutions and commercial centers.
All important data to town water supply designs should be recorded and managed appropriately
in order to avoid unreliable estimations during designing constructing and expanding the water
supply system.
The WSSO should be capacitated by well educated and skilled man power and also materials.
The stock holders of the town tape water supply should integrate and carry out the respective
duties in a time to support the WSSO.

1 .INTRODACTION

1.1 Back Ground of the Study

One of the targets of millennium development goal/MDG/ calls on countries to have, by 2015
proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water .The indicators used in
this document to assess the proportion of people with sustainable access to safe drinking water is
official millennium development goal /MDG/ indicators the proportion of population using an
improved water source, urban and rural / Zegay Zagie 2010-2011/.
In African 602 million people had access to improved drinking water source in /2006/.this shows
coverage increased from 56% in 1990 to 64% 2006.the rate at which Africans gained access to
improved drinking water source .In Africa including Ethiopia access to improved drinking water
coverage in urban Africa decreased from 87% in 1990 to 85% in 2006 though 134 million people
in urban areas have gained access to an improved drinking water source since 1990.
Of 73,918,505 population in Ethiopia 83.9% are rural and the rest 16.1% are urban from /CSA/
central statistical agency /2008/.Ethiopia has adopted the international millennium declaration
and water supply by /UAP/ universal access plan and Ethiopian parliament in 2005 for the
current guiding plan form work for wash or water sanitation and

hygiene the millennium

development goal to attain 70% of national potable water access in 2015.But waste of different
sources can cause the quality problem on the availability problem on the availability water
,climate change can affect the availability of water .Rapid population growth and expanding
global economy have exacerbated the availability improving water and sanitation program is
cervical to spurring growth and sustaining economic development.
Technically the design period of the tape water supply system of Arba Minch town is completed
in 1997. The water supply system is operating for almost doubled population using the same
system components accepts some replacements. There are design problems like less reliability of
socio-economic data for water demand analysis which result in mismatch between demand and
supply even in the design period. Tape water loss is also significant both in the storage facilities
and in the distribution network.

1.2 Statement of the problem

Water as vital resource for house hold, agriculture and industrial use can evidently slow down the
economic and social advancement of society, in the same manor in sufficient water supply is
being raised as a considerable problem in Arba Minch town .Women and girls are facing work
load in fetching water from streams of longer distance and from area of the town with better
water supply. Fewer water supplies are big problem in construction educational institutions.
Therefore this study will make an effort to show the problem and prospects of water supply
shortage in Arba Minch town.
1.3 Objectives of the study
The general objective of this study is to identify the major cause of tap water supply shortage in
Arba Minch town. In line with this the specific objective aims:
To determine the causes of tap water supply shortage system of Arba Minch town.
To fit the statistical model for the monthly consumption of the tap water
1.4 Significance of the study
This study may publicize the state of the problem inform the major cause of the problem to the
users and policy makers in case of most kebeles of Arba Minch town get water on shift basis
/four days in a week/.The pressure in the water system fails to reach to some other kebeles of
relatively high elevation and results in dry pipes for
electromechanical failure in the

long dry times there are repeated

water system .The town in

habitants, construction firms

,educational institution frequently ask for water supply step up through the quality problems are
not being reported.

1.5 Scope of the study

The scope of this study focus on the role of water supply for domestic or house hold and non
domestic /commercial, institutional and industrial/consumption. Similarly the study is about the
problem of water supply in Arba Minch town. Water problems are country wide both rural and
urban, but water supply problems in rural areas differ from urban areas. Even with in urban areas
water supply shortages are caused by different factors. The problem also affects a different
amount of population. Arba Minch is a zonal center with considerable population as compared to
other urban centers in the area considered. And also the water supply service of Arba Minch
town is led by a structured office under the town administration which others lack.
1.6 Limitation of the study
The Problems encountered in the course of study of this research include finance and time
constraints that hindered looking at the issue in more detail. There was also data adequacy and
reliability problem. For instance to see trends of water production and consumption long years
data is important. However, the available data for water production and consumption is of three
or four years. The water loss data is also not reliable because the water produced has not been
measured for some years. Some households also give unreliable data regarding their income and
time spent to collect water.

2. REVIEW OF LITERATURE

Water supply:-providing water for domestic, economical, industrial land institutional use /Zegye
Zagie, 2010-11/ Water supply involves collection, treatment and distribution water in early days
people lived in small areas and their habits were such that they consumed water for drinking,
bathing and cooking only. This necessary water was collected from surface source like rivers,
lakes and ponds.
But as a population increased towns and cities developed and the habits of people improved.
Trades and industries

were established and as result the demand for water increased

considerably .The original small water source become insufficient and large water source
become inevitable .A large ware may not safe for drinking .The role of water supply that a
collection conveyance treatment and distribution of water comes in handy hear /Tesfa Delesho
2010/
For every town or city an administrative body, either the municipality cooperation, has been
established to look after the public health, and to supply potable water to consumers after proper
treatment.
2.1 Water Supply System in Ethiopia
The components of water supply system in Ethiopia face a number of problems like accessed
major components of water supply system of Nazareth town, the classified the components in
two source, production and distribution /Yimer Mohammed 1992/ .The issue given attention
under source are water availability of quantity and quality of water. Since water source for
Nazareth are availability of water refers to the discharge of the bore hole and quantity refers to
fluoride concentration .The concerns seen under production are capacities of the bore hole and
the actual production. Irregular operation of the bore hole, seasonal variation of the bore hole,
power supply in consistencies and water losses.

The distribution components sub divided in to reserves, pipe line networks, meter connection and
public stud pipes .The number and capacity of the rivers and the relative of ground elevation
where it is situated influence its function, density of special attention of pipe lines and relive are
issues treated under pipe line network .meter connection is seen to be influenced by relief,
distance from the reserves and financial constraints to the users. The efficiency of public stand
pipes is taken to be influenced by the number and rational distribution, adequate and continuous
supply of ware
2.2 Causes of Water Supply Shortage
A number of factor which affect urban water supply shortage the following, Environment
degradation ,economic development distribution efficiency of water supply inconsistency of the
system ,climatic changes. (Temperature and rain fall variability). Topographic of the area,
population growth and urbanization, water looses in the system, capacity of town s to manage
the water system. /Zagaye Zagie, 2010-11/. Environmental degradation affects both the quality
and quantity of water resource. World water week synthesis report (2008) indicated that many of
action for reducing environmental degradation are focused at local level and scaling up this to
the river base in and regional level, and the ability trailer solutions are major challenge
ecosystems. Emerge from greater wealth and consumption and increase population .This threats
were exacerbated by climate change and must be addressed together.

3. METHODOLOGY
3.1 The Study Area
Arba Minch is one of the zonal towns in SNNPR. It located at 505km south of Addis Abeba and
278km from the regional town, Hawassa. The area is low land in southern part of Ethiopia main
rift valley. The elevation ranges from 1200m.a.s.l at the northern end to 1320m.a.s.l the southern
end. The town is enclosed by two rift valley lakes, Abaya & chamo in the east south east
respectively, as a rift valley area its at the foot the western escarpment. The Gamo high land
starts from the top of the escarpment.
Administratively the town encompasses four sub towns that are answerable to the administration.
There are 11 kebeles in the town .The town municipality also coordinates town planning works
under the town administration. The total population is 74843 in 2007(CSA, 2008) and is notable
destination of tourist from home and abroad. Moreover social & economic activities are
developing in line with developing educational institution& investment.
3.2 Data Source
Both primary and secondary data will use for this study. The primary data will be obtained
through questionnaire, interview, group discussion and physical observation where as secondary
data from design document standard of regulation, different books, magazines and internet web
sati related with water supply and sanitation
3.3 Study Variable
There are two types of variable in our study
B. Dependent variable is
Price of bill
B.Independent variable are
Amount of water consumed per month
Family size

3.4 Sampling Techniques

The sampling techniques in our study is stratified random sampling, we will be stand from
stratifying the kebeles in Arba Minch town in to area with critical water problem and better water
supply .This kebeles with better water supply are only three (3) which are in sub town Sikela,
Secha and Nechsar according to BOWRD/Desta Horecha2006/: SNNPR bureau of water
resource development
3.5 Sample Size Determination
In the planning of sampling survey one of the first considerations is a sample size determination.
The population of this study is the total numbers of Arba Minch town population in selected
kebeles .The selected kebeles such as Chamo from Secha sub town, Delfana from Sikela sub
town, Idgetber from Nechsar sub town and Waze from Abaya sub town are taken an strata of this
study .The minimum sample size is determined using the following formula.
n =no/1+no/N
Where no = z2/2WiPiQi/di2

i =1, 2, 3..

no =initial sample size

P=the proportion of chance to selection of individual or person
Q=1-p
d=the acceptance margin of error
N=the total population in four selected kebeles
Wi=the total population on the selected kebeles divisible by the total population
After determination the sample size n of the target population it is allocated as ni for each
kebeles using the formula.
ni =Ni/N *n
Where ni =the sample size of ith kebeles
Ni =the total population of the ith kebeles.

3.6 Multiple Linear Regressions

Regression model is mathematical education that provides production .The values dependent
variables based on the known values of two or more independent variable. Particular form of r
egression model depends on the measure of problem under study and on the measure and types
of the data variables multiple linear regression contain two or more independent variables and
one response variable .in our study we choose two independent variable and dependent
variable ,price and number of consumers ,result indignant variable (explanatory variable) .The
dependent variable which is linear model regression is increase or decrease by depending on
independent variables ,
The Multiple Linear Regression Model are
Y^ = ^ 0+ ^1 x 1+ ^ 2 x2
Y=response variable
Xi=explanatory variable
0 =constant variable (intercept of regression line)
1 , 2 =slope of the regression coefficient
E=error term = (g-y)
Assumption of multiple Regression model

Variables are normally distributed

Assumption of a linear relationship between the independent and dependent variable
Variables are measured without error
Assumption of homoscedasticity(constant variance)

Hypothesis Test
It is the statement about the value of population parameters ,hypotheses testing producer based
sample evidence and probability theory used to determine whether the hypotheses is reasonable
statement and should be reject or un reasonable and should be rejected .
number of consumer has no values in explain the dependent variable
That is H0: 1=0
H1:1= different from zero
price has no value explaining the dependent variable of monthly consumption of tap
water
That is

H0: 1=0

Vs H1: 2 = different from zero

3.7 Correlation Analysis

A Pearson correlation coefficient measures the extent to which two variables

are linearly

related .the correlation coefficient only measures a linear relationship .if the correlation
coefficient is zero there is no linear relationship exists .the range of correlation coefficient is
from -1 to +1 and tells us two things about the linear relationship between two variable.
1) Strength: the larger absolute value of the coefficient, the strength the relationship
between the variables an absolute value of one indicates prefect relationship and
intermediate value is interpreted as weak moderated or strong correlation depending on
our objectives and requirements
2) Direction: the sign of the coefficient indicates the direction of the relationship of both
variables tend to increase or decrease together .the coefficient is positive if the variables
tend to decrease

4. RESULT AND DISCUATION

4.1 Descriptive statistics for characteristics of the sample household
4.1.1 Educational level of the respondents
The survey result show that concerning their educational level 28.57% are 1-6 grade and those
who are first degree and above are 5.38% and 7-10 grade which estimated 32.14% out of the
total respondents in the study area and the rest are in group 10 +1-3 is complete and 3.57% are
illiterate
Table 4.1; shows the Educational level of the respondents
Education level
Illiterate

No of respondents
2

percentage
3.57

1-6 grade

16

28.57

7-10 grade

18

32.14

10+1-3

12

21.42

12 complete

8.92

1st degree and above

Total
Source; primary survey, 2012

3
56

5.38
100

4.1.2 House holding of the sample household

House holding of the sample household is also surveyed 85.7% are private houses, 9% are rented
from kebele, 5.3% rented from private.

Table 4.2; shows the House holding system

House holding
Private

No of respondents
48

percentage
85.7

Rented from private

5.3

Rented from kebele

Total
Source; primary survey, 2011

5
56

9
100

The sample households have different occupations, this include government employees, trade/
business, daily laborers, service providers, pensioners and others. Out of the total 56 responded
sample house holds 44.4 percent are government employees that constitute the dominant number
of the sample households. Businessman constitutes 14.1% where as 10.1% of the sample
household is pensioner farmers and daily. Laborers constitute of 7.1% each. The remaining 6.1
and 18.2 % are service providers and other (mixed occupations, dependents) respectively
income characteristics of the surveyed households show that 22.1% of the households lie in the
income group 301-600 birr followed by 601-900 birr with percentage of 16.1 and 101-300 birr
and >2001 birr with 15.12%. The rest 14.1%, 3.5% and 2.3% are in the income groups 9001200birr, 1800-2100birr, 1501-1800 birr respectively.

Descriptive Statistics: price for bill, family size, amount of water consumption per month
per household.

Table 4.3; general descriptive Statistics

water
consumed
per month

Valid

Mean
Median
Mode
Std. Deviation
Variance
Minimum
Maximum
Sum

family

per house

size

hold

price for

56

56

bill(birr)
56

5.3393
5.0000
4.00
2.02957
4.119
1.00
10.00
299.00

2223.2143
2100.0000
1800.00
716.30138
513087.662
1200.00
4200.00
124500.00

18.6198
18.6500
23.00
5.99138
35.897
9.32
38.27
1042.71

From the above table the mean or average price of water consumed is 18.612, the mean of family
size and amount of water consumed per month are 5.339 and 2223.214 respectively. The median
as the result which shows price for bill are half of the observation lie above and half of
observation lies below the median 18.65 and the median as the result which shows family size
and amount of water consumption per month half of observation lie above and half of
observation lie below the median 5.00 and 2100 respectively. The mode is shows the highest
frequency, for price the highest frequency is 23.00 and for family size and amount of monthly
water consumption is 5.00 and 1800.00 respectively. The minimum and maximum values for
price are 9.31 and 38.27 respectively, for family size are 1.00 and 10.00,for amount of monthly
water consumption is 9.32 and 38.27 respectively.
Table 4.4 Water consumed per month per house hold
Water consumed
per month per
household in
liters(L)
1200.00
1500.00
1800.00
2100.00
2400.00
3000.00

Frequency
7
3
14
6
13
8

Percent
12.5
5.4
25.0
10.7
23.2
14.3

3600.00
4200.00
Total

4
1
56

7.1
1.8
100.0

From the above table the highest frequency for water consumed per month are 1800.00 which
contain 25.0% and lowest one are 4200.00 which contain 1.8%.

C
o
u
n
t

1
4
1
2
1
0
8
6
4
2
01
2
0
.1
5
0
.1
8
.w
0
2
1
0
.
2
4
0
.
3
0
.
0
3
6
0
.
4
2
0
.
a
te
rc
o
n
s
u
m
e
d
p
e
rm
o
n
th
e

Figure 1; water consumed per month per house hold

The above bar chart indicates that for water consumed per month the highest and the lowest
frequency are 1800.00 and 4200.00 respectively.

4.2 Inferential statistics

4.2.1Regression analysis and diagnostic tools for checking regression assumption

Residual plot is necessary to see weather error terms are normally distributed or not, as stated by
in the assumptions of regression equation and to see linearity between the response variable
,price for bill and explanatory variable (family size and amount of monthly water
consumption).Some of diagnostic tools checking regression assumption is include.
4.2.2 Normal probability plots of residuals
The points in this plot should generally form a straight line if the residuals are normally
distributed. If the points on the plot depart from a straight line, the normality assumption may be

invalid

E
x
p
e
c
td
C
u
m
P
ro
b

N
o
r
m
a
l
P
l
o
t
f
p
r
i
c
e
f
o
r
b
i
l
.0
1
0
.8

.0
0
6
.0
4
.0
2
.00
.2O
.b
0
4
0
.
6
0
.
8
1
.
0
s
e
rv
d
C
u
m
P
ro
b

Figure 2; normal probability plots of residuals

t00..755rn
D
e
d
eN
o
rm
a
lP
-lo
tfp
ric
e
fo
rb
il

Since the point in this plot form a straight line, the residuals are normally distributed .The normal
plot

shows

as

approximately

linear

pattern

that

is

consistent

with

normal

disitribution.Therefore the normality assumption is valid.

4.2.3 Residuals versus fit for bill price

D
e
v
ia
to
n
fro
m
N
o
rm
a
l

It is used to check the assumption of error term is constant or not (i.e. to examine whether there

is hetroscadasticity or not), if the residual plot has no pattern, and then there is no hetroscadistics.

.0
0
2
5
.-0
.-0
2
5
.50
.0
.2O
.b
0
4
0
.
6
0
.
8
1
.
0
s
e
rv
d
C
u
m
P
ro
b

Figure 3; Residual versus fitted value

The above plot of residual versus fits shows that there is no pattern .It indicates that there is no
hetroscadisticity economic problem in the model. This implies that whatever the value of the
price, the variance of the error term is constant (homoscadasticity).

4.3 The regression equation for water consumption of bill price

versus family size and amount of water consumption per month
Table 4.5 outputs of coefficients
Coefficients (a)
MODEL
B
1

(Constant)

Unstandardized
Coefficients
Std.Error
4.143

water consumed
.005
per month
family size
.444
a .Dependent Variable: price for bill

Standardized
Coefficients
Beta
1.739

Sig.
t
2.382

.021

.001

.651

5.040

.000

.381

.150

1.163

.025

The regression equation is

Y^ = ^ 0+ ^1 X 1 + ^ 2 X 2
Price for bill=4.143+0.005water consumed per month+0.444family size

From the above table the value of bill of price is 4.143; one household may incurs cost 4.143
birr, if house hold do not use water per month because of the service supplied by government.
1=0.005 indicates that the values of the price increased by 0.005 when the water consumption is
increased by one unit and 2=0.444 indicates that the values of the price increased by 0.444
when the water consumption is increased by one unit.

Table 4.6 output for correlation between price of bill, monthly consumption water and family
size
Mode
l

R Square Adjusted
R Square

Std. Error
of the

Estimate
1
.768(a)
.590
.574
3.90882
a Predictors: (Constant), family size, water consumed per month
R-square =59.0% indicates that, 59.0% of the dependant variable (bill of price) is explained by
the two explanatory variable (monthly consumption of water and family size).
Table 4.7 partial correlation
Correlation
zero order

Partial

Part

0.761

0.569

0.443

0.627

o.158

0.102

constant
monthly
water
consumptio
n

family size
From the above output Pearson correlation between monthly consumption water and the price of
bill is 0.569.This shows that there is high positive linear relationship between monthly
consumption of water and the price. And the Pearson correlation between family size and price is
0.158 is show that there is weakly positive relationship between family size and price. Since in
the case of monthly water consumption the p-value is less than alpha-value i.e. (0.00<0.05), we
can say that there is sufficient evidence at alpha (0.05) that the correlation is not zero.Paritial
correlation measures the degree of association between two random variables, with the effects of
a set of controlling random variables remove.

Table 4.7 Analysis of variance (ANOVA)

ANOVA (b)

Sum of
Mean
Squares
Df
Square
F
1
Regression 1164.537
2
582.268
38.109
Residual
809.779
53
15.279
Total
1974.316
55
a Predictors: (Constant), family size , water consumed per month
Model

Sig.
.000(a)

b Dependent Variable: price for bill

Interpretations: - from the above analysis of variance table output, over all p-value are less than
alpha-value i.e.(0.00 l<0.05).We can conclude that, over all F- tests are significance
difference .That means the explanatory variables are significant effect on the model(response
variable ).

5. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMANDATION

5.1 Conclusions
From the analysis of multiple linear regression we concluded that there is linear relationship
between the price of bill and those of two explanatory variables(water consumed per month per
household and family size).That means the water consumed per month per household and family
size are mostly explain the price of bill.
The p-value for the family size is less than the alpha values i.e. (0.0250<0.05) which leads to
the reject the null hypothesis .We can conclude that the family size has significance effect on the
price of bill. From the analysis of variance table output, over all F-test are significance difference
that means the explanatory variables are significant effects on the dependant variable (price).
In generally, tape water supply shortage is caused by increments of family size (household size)
and the amount of water consumed per month per household.
Pearson correlation between monthly consumption water and the price of bill is 0.569.This
shows that there is positive linear relationship between monthly consumption of water and the
price. And the Pearson correlation between family size and price is 0.158 is show that there is
moderate relationship between family size and price.
R-square =59.0% indicates that, 59.0% of the dependant variable (price the bill) is explained by
the two explanatory variable (monthly consumption of water and family size).
Socio-economically the population in the town increases extensively causing demand increase
and lowering the water amount supplied per capital per month. The life standard changes in the
residents of the town also increase water demand and consumption. Economical development
activities are widening and consuming much tape water. Some behavior of the public in using
water result in water wastage and losses; and their willingness to pay for water affects the
revenue of the WSSO and this intern affects the investment of the WSSO on the tape water
supply.

5.2 Recommendations

Adequacy and consistency of tape water supply is important for socio-economic well being of
residents of a town. Therefore, to reverse the existing inadequacy and inconsistency of water
supply and to ensure the socio-economic well being of the residents of Arba Minch town the
following measure should be taken.
Environmental researches that point out the recharge areas of the existing and expected tape
water supply source should be conducted. This has to be followed by integrated and continuous
management of the recharge areas. Environmental impact assessment should be done for both the
projects on the up streams of the source and expansion of tap water.
Long term investment on tape water supply of the town should be given the attention by all
concerned bodies including the users, wider institutions and commercial centers.
All important data to town water supply designs should be recorded and managed appropriately
in order to avoid unreliable estimations during designing constructing and expanding the water
supply system.
The WSSO should be capacitated by well educated and skilled man power and also materials.
The stock holders of the town tape water supply should integrate and carry out the respective
duties in a time to support the WSSO.

Appendix
Objective: The objective of this questionnaire is to collect data that could be solve to asses and
analysis the cause of tap water supply shortage in Arba Minch town.
Questionnaire for house hold survey
Background information
Sub town. Keble
1. Name ..AgeEducation level..
2. Sex

A. Male

B.Female

3. Family size.
4.

Family members in age

Age (in year)
Below 1
1-14
15-65
Above65
Total

5. Marital status

number

1.Married

2.Un married

3. Widowed

4.Divorced

6. Religion

1.Muslim

2.Orthodox

4. Catholic

3.Protestant

5.Other

7. Household holding
1. Private
3. Rented from private

2. Rented from kebele

4. Mention if other

8. What is the occupation of the household head?

1, Government employee
3. Service provider

2, Farming

4, Business

5, Dairy work

5, Pensioner

9. How much is the monthly income of the household?

Income of the household
Income of other members of the household
Total
10. Do you have water connection?
1, Yes

2, No

11. If yes, what type of tap line?

1, House

2, Yard

12. For which purposes does the consumption increase?

1, drinking, bathing and washing clothes
2, cleaning household furniture
3, for domestic animals
4, for watering garden
5, mention if there are other ..
13. Do you see water amount difference in your tap due to seasonal difference?

1, Yes

2, No

14. How long have you been in the town............years?

15.Have you rooms for rent?

1, Yes

2, No

16. If yes, whom do the rooms usually accommodate?

1, Students

2, Office workers

3, Industry workers

4, Others

17. Has your family size or those who rent your rooms increase in the last five years?
1, Yes

2, No

18. What is your major water source?

1. Tap water

2, Stream 3, Mention if other

19. At what time do you shift to the secondary source?

1, Daily

2, Weekly

3, Monthly

4, During dry season

5, Mention if other

20. What is your secondary water source?

1. Tap water

2, Stream 3, Mention if other

21. What are the major causes of water supply shortage in the town?
---------------------------------------22. How many liters of water do your families consume per day? In liters
1. 20-60

2. 60-100

3. 100-140

4.mention if other.

23. How many birr you can pay averagely per month for the purpose of water consumed?

Reference.
BOWD(2006);SSNPR bureau of water resource development bureau ;Desta Horeche water
supply engineering service ,Arba Minch town base line assessment report ,Addis Abeba.
CSA/2008/: summary and statistical report of the 2007 population and housing
Davidson S.A .Abaci and Esubalew Alehegn /2009/: experience from Ethiopia and Nigeria,
infrastructure provision and attainment of Millennium Development Goals /MDG/ in
decentralization system of Africa
Http://www.efr,org/publication /11240/water stress in sub-Saharan Afircan.htm
Introduction to statistical method and sampling Techniques (choc ran)
MOWR (2009); a case study on the status of Ethiopia water supply sanitation and hygiene
(WASH) program, MOWR
MOWR (2002); ministry of water resource, feasibility study and detail design of Arba Minch
town water supply system, DHV consultants, Addis Ababa