2004

- Alain AURIAULT

STATISTICAL CORRELATIONS

Used for screening of newly discovered prospects

Poor accuracy
Example: ARPS study based on 312 US fields
- Recovery in %
R=a*

(1- Sw)
Bo

k
* ( )
o

Pi e
* Sw * ( )
Pa
d

a & e factors varying depending on aquifer strength

Pi & Pa: initial and abandonment pressure

NO ACCOUNT FOR RESERVOIR GEOMETRY NOR FOR

RESERVOIR HETEROGENEITIES

2
RGE 2004

BUCKLEY LEVERETT

A.k kro
1 + 8.4 10

(w - o) sin (a )
Qt o
fw =
kro w
1+

krw o
4

With gravity & viscous forces only (i.e. no capillarity)

With practical units :
- Qt = Qo+Qw in m3/d expressed in bottom hole conditions
- A = flowing surface in m2
- rw & ro : densities in g/cm3
- a : angle with horizontal plane (watch out for sign of a)
- k : absolute permeability mD
- kro & krw : relative permeabilities
- o & w : viscosities in cP
3
RGE 2004

WELGE TANGENT

Tbreakthrough =

L
VFront

fw
L A (Swm - Swi) 1
qT

Swi

SwF Swm

1-Sor

Qt
dfw
L
V(Sw ) =

=
.A
dSw Sw Tbreakthrough + t
4
RGE 2004

PRACTICAL CALCULATIONS (MBAL SOFTWARE)

PRODUCTION at qT=qw+qo

INJECTION qT
h
l
Base case:

qT= 500 m3/j

L=1000m, l=300 m, h=50 m, a= 10
f= 15%, K=200 md
mo=5 cp, mw=0.3 cp
Water wet reservoir
5

RGE 2004

DECLINE CURVE ANALYSIS

Oil production rate of a field (or a well) cannot be sustained for

ever. A drop of oil production occurs over time because of:
Drop of reservoir pressure
Increase of WOR or GOR (Water or Gas production)

Decline Curve analysis = Derive a representative law from the

historical data to be able to predict and extrapolate history

Remaining Reserves Assessment

Field production predictions
6
RGE 2004

DECLINE CURVE ANALYSIS

Production parameters :
Flow rate q Oil or Gas
fo = % oil
WOR= Water rate / Oil rate = water oil ratio
GOR = Gas rate / Oil rate
Decline rate a = decline fraction of rate per time unit
dq/q
a = dt

7
RGE 2004

EXPONENTIAL DECLINE

Most often used:

adt
0

= -

qi

a is constant

dq
q

Cumulative production:

qi
-at
i
at = ln q = qe
q

or

qn + 1 = e - a qn

-at
q
q
e
qi - q
i
i
.
Np = q.dt = qi.e-at =
=
0
0
a
a
t

Decline curve is a straight line for:

log q as a function of time

(semi log)

q as a function of Np
8
RGE 2004

HARMONIC DECLINE

a is proportional to flowrate: a/ai = q/qi

ai
- dq / q
a = .q =

qi
dt

ai
qi
1 1
t= - q=
(1 + a i . t )
qi
q qi

ai
dq
dt = - 2
qi
q
qi

qi
qi
qi qi
.dt = .ln[1 + ati ] = .ln
Cumulative production: Np = 0
(1 + ai. t )
ai
ai q
t

Decline curve is a straight line for:

log q as a function of log(1+ai.t)

( log - log)

log q as a function of Np

( semi log)
9

RGE 2004

LINEAR DECLINE

Not very used: q is proportional to time:a/ai = qi/q

t

ai. qi - dq / q
a=
=
ai. qidt = - dq
q
dt
0
qi

ai.qi.t = qi - q q = qi(1 - ai.t )

qi. ai. t 2 qi + q
=
.t
Cumulative production: Np = 0 qi.(1- ati ).dt =qi. t 2
2
t

Decline curve is a straight line for :

q as a function of time
10
RGE 2004

HYPERBOLIC DECLINE

a is set by the following relationship: a/ai = qn/qin

Cumulative production:
q n - dq / q
ai
dq
a = ai.
=

dt = - n+1
n
n
dt
q
qi
0 qi
qi
t

Cumulative production:

qi
q=
(1 + nait ).1/ n

qi n (1- n) (1- n)
. qi
Np =
-q

(1- n).ai

Decline curve is a straight line for:

log q as a function of log(1+n.ai.t)

(log - log)
11

RGE 2004

12
RGE 2004

13
RGE 2004

APPLYING DECLINE CURVE ANALYSIS

OIL RESERVOIRS TYPICAL BEHAVIOUR

=> Natural depletion:
curves qo vs Np

exponential

=> Dissolved Gas Expansion :

(n# 0.3)
curves qo vs Np

exponential or hyperbolic

=> Active aquifer :

curves fw or WOR vs Np

exponential

14
RGE 2004

APPLYING DECLINE CURVE ANALYSIS

=> Gas Cap Expansion: Hyperbolic (n=2) until gas oil contact
has not reached perforations
curves log GOR vs Np
=> Water injection: exponential then Harmonic
curves fo vs Np rather than qo vs Np
at the end of field life: log fo or log WOR vs Np

15
RGE 2004

APPLYING DECLINE CURVE ANALYSIS

GAS RESERVOIRS TYPICAL BEHAVIOUR

Curve P/Z vs. Gp

very often used:

=> It is a straight line for closed reservoirs (i.e. no aquifer)

PV=ZRT or P/Z=RT/V
=> The straight line becomes exponential in case of active
aquifer

16
RGE 2004

SIMPLE COMPUTATION METHODS: CONCLUSIONS

Statistical correlations: not very often used, except in green

exploration areas.
Neighboring Fields Analogy: very often used by exploration
people for assessment of prospects. Used as well for initial
conceptual field development: recovery factors, recovery
mechanisms, type and rate of decline.
Analytical Methods: not very often used; or at the beginning of a
water or gas injection project to get rough time estimates of
breakthrough times and BSW development.
Decline curves: very often field life: can be a tool for predicting
reserves & production profiles and for diagnosing
compartmentalization isssues. Can be used at well scale or at field
scale.
17
RGE 2004

Methods vs. field status

Decline laws

Models

Material balance

Analogues
0

10

15

20

years

Production
18
RGE 2004