Executive Summary

Meeting Date: December 12, 2016

Agenda Item: Briefing: TA/CPA 16-15 Peril of Flood Act Compliance
Presenter:
Shawn College, AICP ext. 367
Action Necessary: None
Summary:
The Florida State Legislature passed the Peril of Flood Act in 2015. This legislation
placed new requirements for local governments to address flooding, including
flooding from sea level rise. These requirements are incorporated in 163.3178(2)(f),
Florida Statutes.
Guidance from the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity includes that a
vulnerability assessment for each local jurisdiction is necessary to determine how to
address the new requirements of Florida Statutes. Also in 2015, the Tampa Bay
Climate Science Advisory Panel completed their recommended sea level rise
projections for use in our area. Planning Commission staff, working closely with City
of Tampa staff and with the assistance of the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council,
completed a vulnerability assessment for the City of Tampa based on these sea level
rise projections.
The horizon for this vulnerability assessment is the same as the recently adopted
comprehensive plan, through the year 2040. Pursuant to this vulnerability
assessment, Planning Commission staff worked with City of Tampa staff to develop
new comprehensive plan policies, informed by the vulnerability assessment, that will
bring the City of Tampa into compliance with this new state law. Failure for the City
of Tampa to address these requirements could result in the state applying sanctions
to the City of Tampa including a prohibition on new plan amendments.
Recommendation:
There is no action required at this time. This item will come before the Planning
Commission at a Public Hearing on January 23, 2017.
Attachments:
Amendment Summary, Vulnerability Assessment

Plan Hillsborough
planhillsborough.org
planner@plancom.org
813.-272-5940
601 E Kennedy Blvd
18th Floor
Tampa, FL, 33602

This Page Intentionally Left Blank

City of Tampa: TA/CPA 16-15

Text Amendment Peril of Flood Act Compliance
Planning Commission Summary

Future Land Use Text Amendment Summary Information

Application Type

Publicly Initiated

Staff Planner

Shawn College, AICP

Staff Recommendation

Briefing only

Purpose

The Florida State Legislature passed the Peril of Flood Act in 2015.
This legislation placed new requirements for local governments to
address flooding, including flooding from sea level rise. These
requirements are incorporated in 163.3178(2)(f), Florida Statutes.
This plan amendment is proposed to bring the City of Tampa into
compliance with this new state law.

Proposed Change
CM Policy 1.3.1: Through implementation of all Land Development Regulations, continue to
ensure that Aall new buildings or structures shall meet, or exceed, the flood-resistant
construction requirements of the Florida Building Code and federal flood plain management
regulations including for wind, flood proofing and storm surge protection.
CM Policy 1.3.8: In order to reduce flood risk from, or associated with, high-tide events, storm
surge, flash floods, stormwater runoff and the impacts related to sea-level rise, continue to
promote the use of the development and redevelopment principles, strategies and engineering
solutions contained in the Florida Building Code and the Land Development Regulations.
CM Policy 1.3.9: Continue to evaluate and implement measures where feasible to flood proof
coastal pumping stations and electrical facilities in vulnerable areas.
CM Policy 1.3.10: Continue to line waste water pipes, at a rate of at least 5 miles per year, to
mitigate infiltration and inflow, particularly in vulnerable areas.
CM Policy 1.3.11: Mitigate increased inflow into the storm water system in vulnerable areas by
installing flap gates, sleeve valves and/or duckbill valves as appropriate.
CM Policy 1.3.12: Continue to evaluate the need for new pumping stations in vulnerable areas.
CM Policy 1.3.13: Monitor and mitigate any increase in chlorides in wastewater effluent as
necessary.

CM Policy 1.3.14: Continue to ensure development and redevelopment considers the best
available data on minimum floor elevation, including FEMA flood zones.
CM Policy 1.3.15: Utilize parks for episodic flood water attenuation in vulnerable areas.
CM Policy 1.3.16: Plan for the retrofitting and/or relocation of public uses in vulnerable areas.
CM Policy 1.3.17: Continue to inventory road segments at risk in vulnerable areas and develop
mitigation plans as appropriate.
CM Policy 1.3.18: New development and infrastructure in vulnerable areas will be encouraged
to use best practices to address sea level rise.
CM Policy 1.3.19: Maintain and periodically update emergency management plans for critical
water and wastewater facilities to address best available data.

Sea Level Rise Vulnerability

Assessment for the City of Tampa

In support of compliance with the 2015 Peril of Flood Act (SB 1094)
Fla. Statute 163.3178(2)(f)

Contents
Introduction............................... 2
Methodology ............................. 2
Vulnerability Assessment ........ 6
Properties ............................10
Population ............................12
Facilities ............................... 13
Infrastructure .......................14
Conclusion............................... 17

Introduction
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA) estimates that sea level rise will impact the
Tampa Bay region in the next 25 years. NOAA provides
four global mean sea level rise (SLR) scenarios to help
gauge potential impacts to an area. The Tampa Bay
Climate Science Advisory Panel (CSAP), convened in
2015, studied these scenarios and concluded that the
Tampa Bay region might experience sea level rise
between 0.5 to 2.5 feet by 2050. Tampa has already
experienced an estimated 7 inches of sea level rise
over the last 67 years of records, with the highest
observed area flood of 4 feet occurring in 1985 (Climate
Central 2014)1. The purpose of this assessment is to
identify how sea-level rise will impact the City of Tampa
by utilizing the NOAA projections to pinpoint potential
areas at risk, as well as population, facilities, and
infrastructure that might be affected by sea level rise.

Methodology
Planning Commission staff, with the help of the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council (TBRPC)
staff, utilized the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Sea Level Change Curve Calculator,
which includes NOAAs projections, to generate sea level change projections at the local level
through the year 2040. This year was chosen due to the planning horizon of the Imagine 2040:
Tampa Comprehensive Plan. Per the CSAPs recommendation, staff used the NOAA curves and
the St. Petersburg tidal gauge to adjust the NOAA projections to a local context. The calculator
results showed the sea level in the Tampa Bay area is projected to rise an additional 0.4 to 1.6
feet, or 5 to 19 inches, above current levels by the year 2040. This projection is based on NOAA's
Regional Rate of 0.00860 feet per year. The calculator uses the start date of 1992 as the baseline
for sea level rise as it corresponds to the midpoint of the current National Tidal Datum Epoch of
1983-2001. The regionally adjusted NOAA SLR projections through 2040 can be summarized as
follows (all values are expressed in feet relative to Local Mean Sea Level (LMSL):

Year

Low

1992
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040

0.00
0.20
0.24
0.28
0.33
0.37
0.41

Intermediate Intermediate
Low
High
0.00
0.00
0.25
0.35
0.31
0.47
0.38
0.60
0.46
0.74
0.53
0.90
0.62
1.07

High
0.00
0.47
0.64
0.84
1.06
1.31
1.59

Coastal Risks for Tampa, FL, Climate Central, 9/14/2016

Figure 1 Relative Sea Level Change Projections

Source: USACE Sea Level Change Curve Calculator (Version 2015.46)
http://www.corpsclimate.us/ccaceslcurves.cfm

The projections were provided to the TBRPC to use in their scenario modeler to create a model
of the sea level rise surface to show inundation.
The TBRPCs model is built using the same methodology employed in the Statewide Regional
Evacuation Studies program. The model uses elevation surface from high-resolution laser-based
elevation data, and the Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) basin layer.
The SLOSH layer is used to select the area in question, and in case further analysis with storm
surge is needed. It uses Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) from NOAA as a base calculation, as
well as local tidal gauges for datum calculations. The NOAA MHHW data uses tidal gauges to
determine how the level of the sea is distributed throughout an area. At any given point in time,
sea level over a large area is entirely different. These differences are incorporated into this model.
It is important to note that the TBRPC model is not a bathtub model. A bathtub model uses nearflat water surfaces in an area to compare exposure. According to the TBRPC, just applying an
elevation value to create additive height to the shoreline would not work as actual storms create
uneven flooding in specific areas.

Figure 2 TBRPC SLR Assessment Tool

The NOAA projections created by the TBRPC tool were then used by Planning Commission staff
to create a series of maps using Esris ArcMap GIS software. The four NOAA projections were
overlaid on the City of Tampa jurisdiction boundary to analyze potential impacts of sea level rise
in different areas of the city.
Once the areas of risk were identified, staff examined the Hillsborough County Property
Appraisers parcel data to identify affected properties and the U.S. Census Bureaus block data
to determine the population numbers and demographic groups affected. Finally, the City of
Tampas public facilities, roads, and stormwater infrastructure were evaluated.
All analyses exclude the MacDill Air Force Base jurisdictional area; however, the site appears on
all maps for clarity as pictured below in Figure 3.

Figure 3 NOAA 2040 Sea Level Rise Projections

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Vulnerability Assessment
Areas designated as 100-year flood zones in the city of Tampa were the first areas to be
compared to the SLR projections as SLR may exacerbate existing flood risks. In fact, the SLR
projections were found to lie within the AE and VE flood zones. Flood zones classified as AE and
VE by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) are areas with a 1% chance of
flooding in any given year, commonly known as the 100-year flood. VE zones also experience
wind and wave action velocity hazards which can intensify damage caused by flooding. In the
map below, the AE and VE flood zones are located along coastal and river floodplain areas and
are represented by the green and blue hatch marks respectively.

Figure 4 100-Year Flood Hazard Zones (AE & VE) and SLR High Projection Comparison

Tampas flood vulnerability, with a focus on SLR, can be seen in three specific areas of the city:
1. Tampa Bay,
2. McKay Bay and the Tampa Bypass Canal, and
3. The Hillsborough River.
Properties fronting these three areas may experience impacts of sea level rise. The following
maps focus on these specific areas individually.

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Figure 5 Sea Level Rise Projections - South Tampa

As shown in the map above, the areas in southwest Tampa near MacDill Air Force Base may be
impacted.
Areas fronting Old Tampa Bay in West Tampa may also experience impacts, especially properties
at the corner of South Westshore Blvd and Commerce Street; and areas to the north and south
of Cypress Point Park near SR 60 (see Figure 6). This includes beaches along the Courtney
Campbell Causeway.
Areas to the east of McKay Bay Nature Park following the Palm River and areas south along
McKay Bay Trail to Business US41 are also at risk as shown in Figure 7 on the following page.
Certain areas along the Hillsborough River may experience impacts on the east and/or west side
of the river, beginning at Channelside and continuing past Rowlett Park Drive to the dam (see
Figure 8). The area beyond the dam will not experience any impacts from sea level rise within
this assessments time horizon.

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Figure 6 Sea Level Rise Projections - West Tampa

Figure 7 Sea Level Rise Projections - East Tampa

13

Figure 8 Sea Level Rise Projections Hillsborough River

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Properties
Planning Commission staff conducted a parcel analysis using the Hillsborough County Property
Appraisers Parcel information to identify the number of properties and the types of uses that could
be affected by the four sea level rise scenarios. The Property Appraisers existing land use (ELU)
classifications were summarized into eight ELU categories for this study:

The Residential category includes single family homes, condominiums, townhouses/villas

and apartments.
The Commercial category includes uses such as office, strip centers, restaurants, hotels,
mini warehouses, boat slips, and other light and heavy commercial uses.
The Industrial category includes light and heavy manufacturing uses. These are located
primarily along Commerce Street, West Tyson Avenue, and the Port area.
The Public/Institutional category includes all federal, state, municipal, aviation and port
authority properties.
The Public Utility category includes marinas, utilities, and wetlands/lowlands.
The Right-of-Way category includes parcels belonging to CSX.
The Schools category includes public and private schools.
The Vacant category includes undeveloped residential, commercial, and industrial
parcels.

Staff also calculated the taxable valuation of these parcels, the total amount of affected acreage
and the percentage of the acreage affected. Below are the summary tables of the parcel analysis
undertaken for properties located within each sea level rise scenario for the 2040 planning
horizon.
0.41ft Low Impact of 4 to 5-inch rise in sea level

Although the vast majority of parcels affected by the Low scenario are in the residential category,
the actual acreage affected shows properties in the Public Institutional category experiencing 81%
of the impact from a sea level rise scenario of 0.41 feet, or an estimated 5 inches, when compared
to the other categories. Following that category is the Vacant category with 7.43% of the acreage
affected, and Residential properties comprise only 4.64% of affected properties. Properties in the
Schools and Right-of-Way categories, such as Stewart Middle School and CSX properties
respectively, show minimal impacts. The Public Utility Category includes 5.38 acres of impacted
wetlands. Although wetlands were present on other parcels, that level of analysis was not
examined as part of this study.

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0.62ft Intermediate Low Impact of 7-inch rise in sea level

In the second scenario, the trend continues with the Public Institutional category experiencing the
majority of the impacts from a 7-inch rise in sea level, once again followed by the Vacant and the
Residential category. The Public Utility Category includes 6.41 acres of impacted wetlands.
1.07ft Intermediate High Impact of 12 to 13-inch rise in sea level

In the third scenario, the Residential categorys affected acreage increases faster than the Public
Institutional and Vacant categories. However, the primarily impacted land continues to be
properties within the Public Institutional and Vacant categories. The Public Utility Category
includes 9.14 acres of impacted wetlands.
1.59ft High Impact of 19-inch rise in sea level

In the last scenario, a 19-inch rise in sea level continues to affect properties primarily in the Public
Institutional and Vacant categories. The Public Utility Category includes 10.86 acres of impacted
wetlands.

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Population
Based on Tampas 2010 census blocks population count, an estimated 15,300-15,700 people live
in one of the 118 census blocks that may be potentially affected by one, if not all, the sea level
rise scenarios. This population range accounted for 4.68% of the total city of Tampa population
of 335,709 as of the last decennial census in 2010. A demographic breakdown of the census
blocks reveals that over 75% of the at-risk population is white, and over 14% is black. Additionally,
21% of the affected population within the at-risk census blocks is of Hispanic descent.

Race of Population Affected by Sea Level Rise

12,000

Population

10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000

0
White

Black

American
Indian /
Alaska
Native

Asian

Native
Hawaiian /
Other Pacific
Islander

Some Other
Race

Two or More
Races

0.41ft

11,570

2,242

59

364

550

506

0.62ft

11,648

2,242

59

364

556

509

1.07ft

11,876

2,270

62

369

561

515

1.59ft

11,869

2,282

63

372

558

519

Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Census 2010, Summary File 1

Hispanic Population Affected by Sea Level Rise

100%
Percent of population

12,053

12,110

12,338

12,351

80%
60%

Non-Hispanic
Hispanic

40%
20%

3,246

3,276

3,323

3,320

0.41ft

0.62ft

1.07ft

1.59ft

0%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Census 2010, Summary File 1

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Facilities
Per the City of Tampas public and private facility location data, it was determined that none of
the citys facilities lie within the boundaries of the NOAA sea level rise projections. The facility
data points shown in the map below include municipal, county, federal and privately-owned sites.
The facility types include public schools and universities, libraries, fire stations, post offices,
museums, golf courses, law enforcement stations, correctional facilities, and judicial centers to
name a few.
Public utilities are not included in this data segment; however, they are evaluated in the
infrastructure section of this assessment. Facilities such as hospitals and parks are displayed
separately from the facility sites on the map below.

Figure 9 City of Tampa Facility Sites Affected by SLR High Projection

The data shows that Tampa General Hospital, and parks near water bodies, may be affected by
a maximum sea level rise increase of 1.59ft. Below is a list of the citys 30 at-risk parks:

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Al Palonis Park
Alan Wright Park
Ballast Point Park
Cotanchobee Fort Brooke Park
Curtis Hixon Waterfront Park
Cypress Point Park
Davis Islands Park
Desoto Park
Epps Park
Gandy Park South
Ignacio Haya Linear Park
Julian B Lane Riverfront Park
Lowry Park
MacDill Park on the Riverwalk
McKay Bay Nature Park

Bayshore Boulevard Linear Park

Blackwater Hammock Park
Columbus Statue Park
Patterson Street Park
Picnic Island Park
Plant Park
River Cove Park
River Tower Park
Rivercrest Park
Riverside Garden Park
Southwest Port Tampa Park
Sulphur Springs Park
Tappan Tract Park
Tony Jannus Park
USF Park

Figure 10 Curtis Hixon Waterfront Park

Infrastructure
There are also impacts to particular types of infrastructure, such as roads and utilities.
Roads
Portions of 83 different roadways (segments) may potentially be impacted by a high sea level
rise of 1.59ft. Of those roads, 31 are classified as local roads:

Airport Access
Bayport Drive
Bowen Daniel Drive

Campbell Causeway Access Rd N

Campbell Causeway Access Rd S
Culbreath Key Way

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E Washington Street
N 34th Street
N Riverdale Ave
N Taliaferro Ave
Riviera Drive
S Bayside Drive
S Sherrill Street
Severn Ave
W Everett Ave

W Juno Street
W Prescott Street
W Shell Point Rd
W Thomas Street
W Whiting Street
West Boundary Street
Woodmere Rd
Yeats Manor Drive

Utilities
Critical Facilities
The David L. Tippin Water Treatment Facility and the Howard F. Curren Advanced Wastewater
Treatment Plant will not be impacted by NOAAs sea level rise projections. Although the McKay
Bay Refuse-To-Energy Facility will not be directly impacted by sea level rise, the McKay Bay
Preserve adjacent to the facility is located within an at-risk area. The McKay Bay facility may
need to be reevaluated in the future for potential impacts beyond the time horizon of 2040.

Figure 11 Critical Facilities Impacted by SLR Projections

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Figure 12 Stormwater Infrastructure Impacted by SLR

The map above shows potential impacts of sea level rise to stormwater infrastructure in the City
of Tampa. This includes:
Basins
The potential impacts to the at-risk storm basins are largely expected to be along the coastal bay
and riverbank areas of the basins, rather than affecting the entirety of each basin. None of the
following counts include the MacDill Air Force Base basin due to the jurisdictional boundary
overlap with the City of Tampa:

287 basins (Low)

278 basins (Intermediate Low)
289 basins (Intermediate High)
310 basins (High)

Culverts
25 culverts are located within the SLR scenario boundaries.
Network Structures
21 to 29 of the Headwall and Mitered End type network structures off Old Tampa Bay, McKay
Bay, the Tampa Bypass Canal, and along the Hillsborough River are at-risk.

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Open Drains
80 drains are located within the SLR scenarios. The drainage ditch on the corner of Adamo Drive
and N 34th Street, Bayport Drive may experience minimal impact but is worth monitoring.
Redline Properties
According to a list of parcels flagged for drainage issues by the City of Tampa Stormwater
Department, four redline properties that are prone to flooding lie within the SLR scenarios near
MacDill Air Force Base.

Conclusion
The analysis identified and focused on three areas that may be impacted by the NOAA 2040 sea
level rise projections: Old Tampa Bay near Tampa International Airport, the Tampa Bay area east
of MacDill Air Force Base, and McKay Bay and the Tampa Bypass Canal. Properties along the
Hillsborough River may also see a distributed rise in water level. Some of the most notable
findings in the analysis are:

At least 80% of affected properties are publicly owned;

A demographic breakdown revealed that over 75% of the at-risk population is white;
Tampa General Hospital and a number of parks are at risk;
Critical facilities are not located within at-risk areas; however, the area surrounding the
McKay Bay Refuse-To-Energy Facility should be monitored;
Segments of 31 local roads are at-risk;
Several stormwater basins and some stormwater facilities are within the at-risk areas.

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