Number of Dengue Mortality in the Philippines

Abacan, Arjay M.
Balita, Maria Elaiza R.
Cale, Charlene R.
Electronics, Instrumentation and Control, and Mechatronics Engineering Department
College of Engineering, Architecture and Fine Arts
Batangas State University, Main Campus II
Batangas City, Philippines
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I. INTRODUCTION
Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne tropical disease caused by the dengue virus. Symptoms
typically begin three to fourteen days after infection. This may include a high fever, headache,
vomiting, muscle and joint pains, and a characteristic skin rash. Recovery generally takes two to seven
days. In a small proportion of cases, the disease develops into the life-threatening dengue hemorrhagic
fever, resulting in bleeding, low levels of blood platelets and blood plasma leakage, or into dengue shock
syndrome, where dangerously low blood pressure occurs.

Dengue is spread by several species of mosquito of the Aedes type, principally A. aegypti. The
virus has five different types infection with one type usually gives lifelong immunity to that type, but only
short-term immunity to the others. Subsequent infection with a different type increases the risk of severe
complications. A number of tests are available to confirm the diagnosis including detecting antibodies to
the virus or its RNA.

A novel vaccine for dengue fever has been approved in three countries, but it is not yet
commercially available. Prevention is by reducing mosquito habitat and limiting exposure to bites. This
may be done by getting rid of or covering standing water and wearing clothing that covers much of the
body. Treatment of acute dengue is supportive and includes giving fluid either by mouth
or intravenously for mild or moderate disease. For more severe cases blood transfusion may be required.
About half a million people require admission to hospital a year. Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory
drug (NSAIDs) such as ibuprofen should not be used.

Dengue has become a global problem since the Second World War and is common in more than
110 countries. Each year between 50 and 528 million people are infected and approximately 10,000 to
20,000 die. The earliest descriptions of an outbreak date from 1779. Its viral cause and spread were
understood by the early 20th century. Apart from eliminating the mosquitoes, work is ongoing for
medication targeted directly at the virus.

II. REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE

Dengue fever is an infectious disease carried by mosquitoes and caused by any four related
dengue viruses. This disease used to be called break-bone fever because it sometimes causes severe joint
and muscle pain. Dengue fever is a quite dangerous febrile (Feverish) disease can be found in the tropics
and Africa. Dengue fever is transmitted by Aedes Aegypti mosquito, which also transmits diseases as
yellow fever.

Dengue is spread by the Aedes Aegypti, a domestic, day-biting mosquito that prefers to bite
humans. They breed in clean water. Currently there is no vaccine available to prevent dengue. Scientists
are also trying to invent a vaccine against dengue fever, but the researches are only at the stage of
experiments yet. The only treatment is rest and intake of plenty of fluids like water, juices, milk etc.
The researchers therefore conclude that dengue fever should be considered in the differential diagnosis of
fever and rash in the returning traveler. Dermatologists should be aware of the distinctive exanthema of
dengue fever. Recognition of the dengue fever rash permits a rapid and early diagnosis, which is critical
as dengue fever can progress to life-threatening dengue hemorrhagic fever or dengue shock syndrome,
which is fatal and obviously can cause death to the victim.
Health experts have known about dengue fever from more than 200 years. Dengue or dengue-like
epidemics were reported throughout the 19th and early 20th centuries. Annually, it is estimated that there
are 20 million cases of dengue infection, resulting in around 24,000 deaths. Dengue fever is a flu-like
viral disease common throughout the tropical and sub-tropical regions around the world, mainly in urban
and pre-urban areas. Today, it afflicts (cause physical pain and suffering) an estimated 50 million to 100
million in the tropics.
In this study we are able to acquire statistical data from the past nine years about the number of
dengue cases and its mortality. Regarding this, we related the data in order to predict the possible number
of deaths at a given number of cases. We used the curve fitting technique which is the process of
constructing a curve, or mathematical function, that has the best fit to a series of data points, possibly
subject to constraints. Curve fitting can involve either interpolation, where an exact fit to the data is
required, or smoothing, in which a "smooth" function is constructed that approximately fits the data. A
related topic is regression analysis, which focuses more on questions of statistical inference such as how
much uncertainty is present in a curve that is fit to data observed with random errors. Fitted curves are
then used as an aid for data visualization, to infer values of a function where no data are available, and to
summarize the relationships among two or more variables. Extrapolation refers to the use of a fitted curve
beyond the range of the observed data, and is subject to a degree of uncertainty since it may reflect the
method used to construct the curve as much as it reflects the observed data.
Numerical analysis is the study of algorithms that use numerical approximation (as opposed to
general symbolic manipulations) for the problems of mathematical analysis (as distinguished
from discrete mathematics).

One of the earliest mathematical writings is a Babylonian tablet from the Yale Babylonian
Collection (YBC 7289), which gives a sexagesimal numerical approximation of 2, the length of
the diagonal in a unit square. Being able to compute the sides of a triangle (and hence, being able to
compute square roots) is extremely important, for instance, in astronomy, carpentry and construction.

Numerical analysis continues this long tradition of practical mathematical calculations. Much like
the Babylonian approximation of 2 , modern numerical analysis does not seek exact answers, because
exact answers are often impossible to obtain in practice. Instead, much of numerical analysis is concerned
with obtaining approximate solutions while maintaining reasonable bounds on errors.

Numerical analysis naturally finds applications in all fields of engineering and the physical sciences, but
in the 21st century also the life sciences and even the arts have adopted elements of scientific
computations. equations appear in celestial mechanics (planets, stars and galaxies); numerical linear
algebra is important for data analysis; stochastic differential equations and Markov chains are essential in
simulating living cells for medicine and biology.

Before the advent of modern computers numerical methods often depended on

hand interpolation in large printed tables. Since the mid-20th century, computers calculate the required
functions instead. These same interpolation formulas nevertheless continue to be used as part of the
software algorithms for solving differential equations.

III. METHODOLOGY
Numerical analysis has numerous applications in all fields of science and some fields of
engineering, and essentially any type of work that requires calculations to give very precise solutions.
The point of numerical analysis is to analyze methods that are used to give approximate number
of solutions to situations where it is unlikely to find the real solution quickly, and to try and improve upon
these methods so as to reduce the amount of error generated by computer calculation.
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Learning various methods of numerical analysis is essential in solving practical problems. In this study,
we apply the methods we learn in numerical analysis. We are able to acquire statistical data from the past
nine years about the number of dengue cases and its mortality.
2008
18966

2009
10383

2013
204906
2008
52

Number of Cases
2010
327406
2014
121580

2015
200415
Number of Deaths
2010
724

2009
548

2013
200

2011
49478

2014
242

2016
286226
2011
285

2015
228

2012
187031

2012
115
2016
372

We related the data in order to predict the possible number of deaths at a given number of cases. We used
Neural Network Toolbox in MATLAB to (form a system chuchu in predicting chuva)
(Neural Network Toolbox)pic
(code)
(MATLAB SIMULINK PICTURE)
IV. CONCLUSION
V. REFERENCES
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dengue_fever
https://sanjran.wordpress.com/essays-for-ba-bachelors-of-arts/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Numerical_analysis
https://www.mathworks.com/products/neural-network/features.html