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INTRODUCTION
Alexander Sinske
July 2010
PROCESS OF ALGORITHM
DEVELOPMENT
Investigate causes of pipe failures and determine
attributes
Rearrange attributes in to factors for the calculation of a
compound risk
Discuss the importance of each factor
Determine if data for factors are available
Investigate the quality of data
Determine the weightings of factors through workshops
Investigate the effect of exposure on certain areas with
regards to specific factors
PRP DEFINITION
GENERAL PRINCIPLES
Pipe replacement prioritisation (PRP)
Probability of Failure (PoF)
Consequence (C)
PoF x C = RISK (in monetary terms)
Intervention
Replacement reduces risk
PRP EVALUATION
PRP WORKSHOP
Political Region
Rollup Region (suburbs for network pipes & polygon buffer
system for bulk pipes)
LIKELIHOOD OF FAILURE
Contributing Factors
Nominal Diameter (if insufficient alternative factors)
Reserve Pressure Ratio
Remaining Useful Life
Master Plan Item (Upgrade required)
Bulk Zone Leakage Volume
Minimum night flow volume
Pipe material used in Dolomite area
High corrosion potential for steel pipes
Undesired pipe material (e.g. AC)
High static-dynamic pressure range
Likelihood of Failure
Property
Weight
Nominal diameter
10
20
10
Leakage volume
Corrosion potential
Undesired material
10
Likelihood of Failure
0%
Nominal diameter
3%
15%
Property
Criteria
(<=)
Rating
(0..5)
0.25
0.5
Leakage volume
0.75
>1
16%
3%
8%
31%
8%
Corrosion Potential
Material
0%
16%
Static Dynamic
Property
Criteria
Rating
(Year)
(0..5)
10
20
50
>50
(undefined)
Rating
(0..5)
0
MP Item Type
MP
Property
Criteria
Rating
(l/s/km)
(0..5)
Leakage Volume
10
Leakage Volume
30
Leakage Volume
>30
Criteria
Material
Property
Criteria
Rating (0..5)
ACAC-Dolomite
DIDI-Dolomite
FCFC-Dolomite
GRPGRP-Dolomite
HDPEHDPE-Dolomite
STST-Dolomite
mPVCmPVC-Dolomite
uPVCuPVC-Dolomite
0
0
5
0
2
0
5
0
2
0
1
0
2
0
3.5
0
3
Final Factor
Rating (0..5)
2.5
Material
AC
Material
DI
Material
FC
Material
GRP
Material
HDPE
Material
mPVC
Material
ST
Material
uPVC
Criteria
MP Item Type
Leakage volume
Protperty
Property
CONSEQUENCE OF FAILURE
Contributing Factors
Likelihood of high damage cost to consumer due to
water pressure
Likelihood of high damage cost to consumer due to flow
Likelihood of extended non-supply over time based in
system type
Likelihood of high repair cost based on pipe cost
function
Flooding due to steep slopes across roads
Strategic location (e.g. CBD, HOS, IND)
Poor geology (e.g. Dolomite, Clay)
Lack of network redundancy
Consequence of Failure
Weight
Property
High cost to consumer due to high water pressure
10
20
Strategic location
Geology
10
Network redundancy
10
Consequence of Failure
16%
16%
Property
Criteria
Rating
(<=)
(0..5)
30
60
90
160
250
>250
32%
Geology
8%
Network redundancy
2%
8%
2%
Property
Criteria
Rating
(<=)
(0..5)
Property
Criteria
Rating
(0..5)
20
50
Repair Cost
100
Repair Cost
Road
200
Repair Cost
Reserve
>200
Property
Criteria
Rating
(0..5)
Property
Strategic Location
(undefined)
Strategic Location
CBD
Strategic Location
Hospital
Strategic Location
Industrial
Criteria
Rating
(<=)
(0..5)
Redundancy (l/s)
Redundancy (l/s)
20
Redundancy (l/s)
50
Redundancy (l/s)
100
Redundancy (l/s)
200
Redundancy (l/s)
>200
FAILURE FREQUENCY
Geology
(undefined)
Geology
Dolomite
Geology
Clay
Property
Rating
(0..5)
Final Factor
Property
Failure frequency
Criteria
Criteria
Rating
(Breaks/a/km)
(0..5)
Failure Frequency
Failure Frequency
Failure Frequency
Failure Frequency
Failure Frequency
>10
ASSESSED CONDITION
Assessed Pipe Condition
(if available)
Failure Frequency
Factor
Assessed Condition
Factor
CONCLUSION
FUTURE WORK
To provide an aligned technical approach with Asset
Management Principles
To provide an absolute measure of need of
replacement, not just ranking
Result can be used to compare different models with
each other
From existing PRP results, Failure Modes will be
analysed independently of each other and then the
earliest failure used to determine the shortest
Remaining Useful Life (RUL)
The independent Criticality Grade [0..5] for a pipe is
determined from the existing PRP data.
Risk exposure is defined as the product of Criticality
Grade and RUL (of the determining failure mode)
Thank you!
alex@gls.co.za