Declining Trend of

Cotton Cultivation:
Causes & the Way
Forward

Ministry of Textile Industry

Government of Pakistan, Islamabad
November, 2016

DECLINING TREND OF COTTON

CULTIVATION:
CAUSES & THE WAY FORWARD

KHALID ABDULLAH
Cotton Commissioner

November, 2016

Contents
Page #
Preamble.....................................................................................................3
1. Cultivation Trend of Competing Crops.....................................................4
2. Cotton and the Climate Change..............................................................7
2.1 Heavy Rains and Floods....................................................................7
2.2 Harsh Temperatures especially in Punjab.........................................8
3. World Scenario........................................................................................9
4. Other Factors.........................................................................................10
4.1 Sudden Flare-up of Pests & Disease.................................................10
4.2 Rapid Urbanization...........................................................................10
5. Conclusions:..........................................................................................11
6. Way Forward..........................................................................................11

DECLINING TREND OF COTTON

CULTIVATION: CAUSES & THE WAY FORWARD
Preamble
Cotton is an economic engine of the countrys economy, and also a major
determinant of livelihood of about 50% rural inhabitants of Pakistan. The
production entails more than 60% contribution towards foreign exchange
earnings and serves as food security and political stability in the country.
Therefore, any shortfall in the production put negative impact on employment,
growth, industry and exports. As a global phenomenon, the country is in the grip
of climate change for a decade or so. Cotton production has significantly been
affected due to climatic atrocities since 2010 in shape of torrential rains leading
to heavy floods, which pose substantial loss to crops, livestock, humans as well
as the houses and other infrastructures. The year 2010 was the worst hit by
torrential rains and floods, which led to the loss of 2.3 million bales of cotton crop
valuing around Rs.100 billion. Similarly, from the year 2010 to 2015, the cotton
crop is badly suffered due to heavy rains or floods. Moreover, Climate Change
indirectly affected the cotton crop by providing conducive environmental
conditions for resurgence of cotton insect pests i.e., Pink bollworm, Armyworm,
Whitefly and the continuous threat of cotton leaf curl virus (CLCuV) has also
posed threat to cotton productivity over the years.
The major cause for reduction of cotton acreage compelling farmers to shift on
other crops is the low market prices over the years. Since cotton prices are left at
the mercy of international market where most of the countries protect their
growers by subsidies and support resulted in lower prices, resultantly the
farmers could not get due price of their produce. The cost of producing
seedcotton surges above Rs.3000 per 40 kgs while the farmers received cotton
prices Rs.2200-2500 per 40 kgs. The continuous lower prices over the past few
years has compelled the cotton farmers to shift to other crops i.e., sugarcane
(which is well protected crop), rice and maize ensuring better returns to the
farmers.
Cotton Map of Pakistan

Source: PARC, Islamabad

Historically Pakistan aims to cultivate 3.2 million hectares annually, out of which
72% or 2.6 million hectares cultivated in Punjab province and 27% or 0.6 million
hectares is cultivated by Sindh province whereas less than 1% in Khyber
Pakthunkhwa and Baluchistan provinces. The trend of cotton area, production &
yield is given in Table-1.

Table 1: Province-wise Cotton Cultivation Trends (2005-2016)

(Area 000 hectares)

Year

Punjab

Sindh

KPK
2.1

Balochist
an
37.8

Pakist
an
3103.0

200506
200607
200708
200809
200910
201011
201112
201213
201314
201415
201516
201617

2426.0

637.1

100.00

2462.9

570.1

0.2

41.6

3074.8

99.09

2424.8

607.4

0.2

21.9

3054.3

98.43

2223.7

561.5

0.2

34.6

2820.0

90.88

2435.8

634.7

0.04

35.1

3105.6

100.09

2200.6

457.0

0.2

31.3

2689.1

97.70

2533.7

259.2

0.2

41.4

2834.5

86.66

2308.7

530.1

0.2

39.8

2878.8

91.35

2199.0

568.0

0.3

38.4

2805.7

92.77

2323.0

596.2

1.0

41.2

2961.4

90.42

2243.0

621.0

1.0

38.0

2974.1

95.85

1776.0

636.0

1.0

38.0

2410.0

77.67

The data in the above table depicts that total area under cotton reduced by 22%
in Pakistan over the last ten years and this major reduction in cotton area is only
contributed by Punjab province which reduced its area under cotton be 26%
percent over the same period.
Following are some key factors which resulted in reduction of cotton cultivation in
the country especially in the Punjab province.

1. Cultivation Trend of Competing Crops

Cotton competitiveness depends upon its production and domestic or

international market behavior. Whereas other crops especially sugarcane is well
protected with regulatory duty and ensured payment of indicative price. The
damages to cotton production due to heavy rains and floods coupled with lower
market prices have compelled the cotton farmers to shift over to other
competing crops i.e., rice, maize, sugarcane and potatoes etc. in the core-cotton
areas of the Punjab provinces. Setting up of sugar mills in the cotton area also
triggers the shifting process. There has been witnessed a 24% increase in
acreage of maize; 7% increase in rice acreage; and 14% increase in sugarcane
acreage over the last ten years. This increase in area has come from cotton area
and 26% reduction in cotton acreage has been witnessed over the last ten years.
Market prices are considered to be the major factor for this shift. The analysis of
various competing crops viz a viz cotton crop is given as below:

Cultivation of Competing Crops viz a viz Cotton Crop in Punjab (Area

000 hectares)

Years

Rice

200506
2006-0

1762.
4
1728.
4
1723.
5
1977.
7
1931.
5
1766.
8
1714.
2
1711.
4
1808.
9
1877.
7
1789.
0
1701.
0

200708
200809
200910
201011
201112
201213
201314
201415
201516
201617

Maize
100.0

540.8

100.0

S.Can
e
625.2

98.07

492.5

91.07

711.8

97.79

534.5

98.84

827.2

112.2
2
109.5
9
100.2
5
97.27

534.4

98.82

666.5

504.9

93.36

607.4

543.6

672.2

97.11

587.7

102.6
4
106.5
4
101.5
1
96.51

689.3

100.5
2
111.6
7
108.6
7
127.4
6
103.3
2
132.5
4
110.2

603.9

558.8
716.8
596.0

100.0
113.8
5
132.3
1
106.6
1
97.15

710.6

107.5
2
121.7
5
122.7
9
121.0
5
113.6

710.2

113.5

792.0

126.7

761.2
767.7
756.8

Cotto
n
2426.
0
2462.
9
2424.
8
2223.
7
2435.
8
2200.
6
2533.
7
2308.
7
2199.
0
2323.
0
2243.
0
1776.
0

100.0
101.5
2
99.95
91.66
100.4
0
90.71
104.4
4
95.16
90.64
95.75
92.46
73.21

Market Prices (Rs. Per 100 Kgs) of Kharif Crops in the Punjab

Crops
Cotton
(Phutti)
Rice (IRRI)
Maize

201213
6163

201314
6966

201415
7321

201516
5573

201617
6249

3677
2451

3793
2478

3665
2427

3194
2204

3488
2406

Source: Agriculture Marketing Information Service, Government of the Punjab

Sugarcane Area Vs Average Sugar Price per Kg in the Punjab

Year

Area (000
hectare)

2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016

625.2
711.8
827.2
666.5
607.4
672.2
761.2
767.7
756.8
710.6
710.2
792.0

Sugarcane
Indicative
Price (Rs. Per
40 Kgs)
45.00
60.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
125.00
150.00
170.00
170.00
180.00
180.00
--

Sugar Price
(Rs. per Kg)
31.16
31.85
27.92
38.72
57.11
72.72
60.99
53.25
53.82
56.37
64.32
68.00

Source: All Pakistan Sugar Mills Association

Similar trend has been witnessed in sugarcane cultivation, the area increased by
14% so did the prices from Rs.31 per kg to Rs.68 per kg over the last ten years.
The main factors contributing to the increase in sugarcane cultivation are 14%
more area under cultivation due to better returns and timely availability of
inputs. This has given boost to increased number of sugar mills to 85 (45 in
Punjab; 8 in KP and 32 in Sindh). Almost 70% of the total sugar mills are located
in core cotton zone of the country especially in the Punjab.

No. of Sugar mills in different districts of Punjab

7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0

6
5

4
3
2
1

2
1

Sugar prices per kg in international and local market 2014-15 (1$=Rs105)

70.00

65.4165.3664.75
62.49
59.53
59.17
56.92
56.78
60.00
54.1253.9254.2354.28

Rs/ kg ($=105)

50.00 45.00
44.16
41.7941.7740.35
38.3238.5738.3536.9837.67 36.63
40.00
35.81
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
International

Local

1.1 Sugar Prices:

The graph above clearly shows the protection provided to sugar which lead to
competitiveness environment to cotton crop which is not protected at all. The
sugar produced in land is almost 80% expensive to that of available in
international market. This unexplained protection to sugar is posing threat to
cotton and other crops, unprecedented expansion of sugar industry and a great
risk to agriculture lands for becoming water logged.

2. Cotton and the Climate Change

The changed climatic phenomenon

during the current decade in the
form of heavy rains, floods and
varying temperatures has damaged
the cotton crop significantly. The
onslaught of heavy rains during
months
of
June-September
(>300mm) and abnormal variation in
temperatures
contributed
an
adverse effect on the growth and
development of the cotton crop. The
cotton production decreased during
the years of heavy rains, while it
increased during the years of normal
rains (Figure-1). High rains affected
cotton crop in the form of shedding
of fruiting parts, plants mortality,
higher weed population, leaching of
nutrients from soil, poor pest control
and stunted plant growth. Less
sunshine and high humidity due to
extended wet and cloudy weather
adversely
affected
nitrogen
application, pesticide spray, weed
control
and
other
agricultural
practices, as well. The climate
change impact on cotton production
described in two ways i.e., heavy
rains and temperatures, as below:

2.1

Courtesy: CRI, Faisalabad

Courtesy: SUPPARCO, Islamabad

Heavy Rains and Floods

The cotton crop has suffered badly due to heavy rains and floods in the country
since 2010-11. The year 2010-11 remained the worst year for cotton and other
crops which were severely damaged due to heavy rains and floods. Cotton crop
alone lost 2.4 million bales valuing Rs. 100 billion during the mentioned period.
Cotton production in the Punjab province was also severely damaged and
reduced by 30% due to heavy rains during the year 2015-16. The continuous and
heavy rains (100mm to 373mm) affected pollination, 128 mm for 28 days during
3rd week of July upto 3rd week of August 2015 as compared to only 13 mm during
same period last year. The continuous rainfall created partial waterlogged
condition, non-development of feeding roots, stunted plant growth due to less
development of roots, low uptake of nutrients, fruit shedding as well. Moreover,
heavy rains coupled with high humidity enabled flare-up of Whitefly and Jassid,
and other fungal diseases, problems in weeds management, spray and other
intercultural practices. The economical damage due to heavy rains and floods
over the past years is given in Table 2.

Table 2: Cotton Area damaged due to Floods / Rains (acres)

Year

Province
Punja
Sindh
b

2010

860,35
6
59,050

2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

142,54
7
246,11
0
211,67
7
260,0
37

487,125
11,66,46
6
155,292
5-10%
Katcha
area
N.A.
85,270

Total
Area
damag
ed
(acres)
1,347,4
81
59,050

Economic Loss (Approximate)

No. of
Annual
Value
Bales
Avg Price
(Rs.
damaged per bale
Million)
23,58,092

41,598

98,091

103,338

24,503

2,532

297,83
9
246,11
0

521,218

26,126

13,617

430,693

30,498

13,135

211,67
7
345,30
7

370,435

23992

8,887

604,287

23846

14,409

Source: Agriculture Departments of the Respective Provinces

Basis of Calculation:
i) Area damaged figures from respective provinces
ii) Average lint yield 1.75 bales per acre for both provinces (1.5 for Punjab and 2.0
for Sindh)
iii) Value calculated at annual average lint prices quoted by Karachi Cotton
Association
Figure 1: Impact of Rainfall on Cotton Production in Punjab

2.2

Harsh Temperatures especially in Punjab

Cotton is considered to be adapted to high temperature environments; however,

reproductive processes are adversely affected by elevated temperature. The
threshold levels of 37.5C for day and 27.5C night are considered optimum
temperatures for cotton plant growth and development. The literature reveals
that the increase in temperature by 1C may reduce yield of cotton by 10%
(Pettigrew, 2008). But in case of cotton cultivation especially in the Punjab
province, temperatures during the whole cotton growing season remained above
the threshold or optimum level.

Number of Days Beyond Optimal Temperature Range

Year

Optimum Temperature

2010

>
37.5C
temperature)
>
27.5C
temperature)
>
37.5C
temperature)
>
27.5C
temperature)
>
37.5C
temperature)
>
27.5C
temperature)
>
37.5C
temperature)
>
27.5C
temperature)
>
37.5C
temperature)
>
27.5C
temperature)
>
37.5C
temperature)
>
27.5C
temperature)

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

(day

Ma
r
5

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Oct

Se
p
0

19

28

21

12

(night

20

24

16

(day

28

23

(night

11

25

25

18

(day

25

23

21

(night

24

24

21

(day

26

22

20

(night

25

27

18

12

(day

15

27

10

(night

29

25

21

(day

22

12

(night

11

17

23

25

17

Optimum Temperature: 37.5C Maximum and 27.5C Minimum

Source: CCRI Multan

10

The high temperatures during

said period reduced the yield
due to flowers shedding and
less boll setting. In addition
high
temperature
coupled
with high humidity boosted
Whitefly
population
which
remained the one of the major
cause of yield reduction over
the years.
The current crop of 2016
carries
a
different
phenomenon of cotton plant
and leaf burning syndrome
primarily
due
to
high
temperatures, shortage of irrigation water, and soil problems etc.

3. World Scenario
The international cotton prices also fluctuated greatly from US$ 3.56 per kg in
2010 to US$ 1.55 per kg in 2015. This trend puts significant effect on domestic
cotton prices as well as the cotton production size. The cotton area increased
when the farmers received higher prices in previous crop season. Moreover, the
increasing global demand for fibre consumption has resulted in enhancing
production of Man-Made Fibre (MMF). This has increased the share of MMF to 60
million tons (70%) whereas cotton production was 25 million tons (30%) during
2013-14. Moreover, the price of MMF is almost half to that of cotton prices across
the world. This trend suppresses the cotton prices which results in low returns for
farmers to their produce and ultimately reducing cotton area in different
countries.

Price comparison of Cotlook (A-Index) with Polyester Fibre

Year

201011
201112
201213
201314
201415
2015-

Cotlook Cotton
Price (A-Index)
(Cents/l
US$ /
b)
Kg
161.85
3.56

USA
(Cents/l
US$ /
b)
Kg
97.85
2.17

Polyester Fibre Prices

China
Pakistan
(Cents/
US$ /
(Cents/l
US$ /
lb)
Kg
b)
Kg
90.56
1.99
89.20
1.96

101.23

2.23

121.08

2.67

83.14

1.83

85.00

1.87

87.93

1.85

117.84

2.60

77.30

1.70

79.55

1.75

90.66

1.99

113.58

2.50

70.89

1.56

74.80

1.65

70.93

1.56

99.25

2.19

58.64

1.29

61.17

1.35

70.39

1.55

92.33

2.04

47.19

1.04

49.67

1.09

11

16
201617

77.90

1.71

--

--

46.95

1.03

--

--

Source: Cotton World Statistics 2016, International Cotton Advisory

Committee, USA
Moreover, the developed countries provide huge subsidies and support measures
(direct support to production, crop insurance programs, minimum support price
mechanisms and export subsidies) for enhancing cotton productivity. This action
badly affects cotton production and prices in developing countries.
The
International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) estimated the support measures
at $7.2 billion in 2015-16, and the subsidies averaged 21 cts/lb in 2014/15 (29.4
percent of existing market price).

4. Other Factors
4.1 Sudden Flare-up of Pests & Disease
With the advent of Bt cotton, the trend of cotton production practices changed so
did the pattern of cotton pests pattern. The Bt cotton gave escape against attack
of cotton bollworms and helped in increasing cotton production. But
simultaneously, the emergence of earlier minor pests and resurgence of new
pests i.e., cotton mealybug, dusky bug, red cotton bug and the appearance of
Pink bollworm and Whitefly have substantially damaged the cotton crop. These
pests, collectively contributed in lowering the cotton production over the years.
Moreover, cotton leaf curl virus (CLCuV) disease remained prevalent throughout
these years and continued damaging the cotton crop. The flare-up of insect pests
or diseases is indirectly related to climate change, that climatic conditions
become so favorable and becomes conducive to develop and multiply the pests
and diseases which cause lower yields.
4.2 Rapid Urbanization
With the rapid economic development and growth in industry, the population of
urban areas expanded sharply coupled with the influx of migrants from rural to
urban areas all over the country. This requires more land for housing the
explosive population of urban areas. The mushrooming of housing colonies has
been swallowing the fertile agricultural lands and converting into housing
colonies and other urban infrastructures. Urbanization is therefore, argued as a
potential threat for agricultural land. Apart from the direct loss of production
capacity, land has also impact on the present state of agriculture .It leads to the
additional burden on the present farming conditions, which may further worsen
the situation. The results indicates that both agriculture value added % of GDP
and agricultural value added annual % of growth had a negative relationship with
the urban population , it means that as the urbanization rises more and more
agricultural land is converted to non agricultural uses which lead to the reduction
of agricultural production.

5. Conclusions:

12

1. Massive erecting of sugar industries in the top cotton growing areas of

Pakistan and increase in the crushing capacity of the existing sugar mills,
resulted in reduction of cotton area in Rahim Yar Khan, Muzafar Garh, etc.
2. It is very likely that cotton production in the Mianwali district will be
affected after the installation of new sugar mills that area.
3. Issuance of NOC for new sugar industry, shifting of a sugar industry or
increasing crushing capacity is purgative of the provincial government.
4. Cotton area has also been squeezed due to popularization of Maize and
Potato in the Districts of Sahiwal, Faisalabad and Khanewal.
5. Lower cotton prices in general are also a reason for not opting cotton as
crop of choice.
6. Non-availability of multiple genes in Bt cotton and quality certified seed is
another cause of reduction of cotton area.
6. Way Forward
1. Provinces may be asked to refrain from issuance of NOC for establishment,
increase in capacity or shifting of any sugar mills in/ to cotton growing
area. The trend of installation of sugar mills increased from 56 (1995-96)
to 84 (2015-16) which must be checked to save precious resources of
irrigation water and cultivating the cotton crop, being highly value-added
crop.
2. Government of KP may be persuaded to give due emphasis to the
development of cotton in districts of Dera Ismail Khan etc and not to grant
any further NOC for new sugar mills or increase of crushing capacity of
any existing sugar mills.
3. Efforts may be made for reduction of input cost of cotton production.
4. Massive campaign may be initiated for the development of cotton with
some targeted and result oriented schemes in KP and Balouchistan
province (ginning factories, procurement centers, researcher stations etc).
5. Introduction of new technology in seed will help in increase production per
unit area and increase profitability.
6. Capacity building of agriculture extension department to reach each
individual cotton grower during the season.
7. Access to short term farm financing with easy procedure.
8. Introduction of quality based pricing system may be introduced in
consultation with industry so that cotton grower could get best price of
their produce.
9. Support price system for cotton crop as in vogue for wheat and sugarcane
etc to maintain the acreage of this high value added crop must continue.
This will encourage farmers to plant more and result in increased
production.
10.Generous funding for cotton research and extension departments for
working on evolving cotton varieties resistant to insect, pests and
diseases; drought and water stress resistance etc.
===========================

13