Model for determining optimal assortment of planting material for long-term

production in municipal nurseries

Municipal nurseries are facilities where the products are planting materials required for the
construction, manning and development of urban vegetation system (UVS). Technological
process in this type of nursery is long-term. In order to obtain the final product takes time of
several years. During the long period of production may often occur saturation of the market and
changes in the demand for specific types or for specific product dimensions. Therefore, the
most common risk in nursery production occurs due to changes in supply and demand. The
main causes of risk are: lack of planning documents and development plans, lack of future
demographics of the city, the lack of implementation of development plans and projects,
changes in trend, spatial and technological changes in the development of other urban systems,
the growth of settlements in height, intense occupation of free areas, the continued expansion of
social standards, climate / microclimate changes and more.
The aim of the research is to determine the optimum assortment of planting material, in
order to increase the security of investments and product placement.
Research method is the formation of the system model, which is based on real numerical
parameters to determine the optimum assortment of planting material for the formation of a
long-term plan and the program of production in the city nursery.
Period for which the model works is equivalent to the period of development of planning
documents (Master Plan of the city), ie 10 years.
Diagram of the system model is established after the analysis of all relevant parameters,
which may affect the implementation of the production program of planting material. Diagram of
the model is at the end of the expos.
Model is implemented through 3 phases:
1. The first phase - Analysis of nursery potentials :
a. Analysis of the conditions of the site
b. Technical report on the situation in the nursery
c. Analysis of the surface according to the basic intentions
d. Analysis of the production area
e. Analysis of current production and raw materials
f. Analysis of equipment, manpower and more.
g. Analysis of internal transport
h. Recap
2. The second stage - Comparative analysis of the need for planting material :
a. Analysis of the necessary planting material for the realization of the Master
Plan of the city and long-term greening plan (LTGP).
b. Analysis of the necessary working materials for the ongoing reconstruction
and rehabilitation.
c. Analysis of the necessary seedlings for the rehabilitation / reconstruction
based on the results of valorisation of vegetation in the city.
d. Analysis of five-year sales and placement of seedlings in the nursery of the
city (ABC, Pareto analyze).

e. Analysis of planting material for smaller settlements.

f. Analysis of existing contracts for the sale of planting material, other special
requirements and needs.
g. Recap and Gantt chart timelines
3. The third phase - Development of production plans and programs:
a. Analysis of adaptability of plants for planting in the village.
b. The assortment of plants and other products for the primary and secondary
production
c. Production program
d. The long-term plan.
It is expected that research will demonstrate the practicality of applying the model in a
variety of control systems.
Expectations of the proposed model are:
direct improvements: reduced risk of sales, flexibility in product range, lighter and faster
response to changing trends, the possibility of forming an organized market, the production of
quality planting material and more.
System enhancements: increased sustainability of urban vegetation system, reduction of
maintenance costs, reducion of losses in the period of receiptio of planting material, budget
savings, the ability to redirect resources and more.
Concluding remarks - System model is formed taking into account all stakeholders in
defining the urban system of the city of vegetation. As a result of the model database is created,
which clearly observe types of information that directly influence the selection of the range and
quantity of plant species. Types of information that are numerical characters are processed
through the programs with the help of simple mathematical formula. Types of information that
are not numerical characters are evaluated and further reduced to numerical. Combining the
results of analyzes of the current and future needs and harmonization of the new results with
the results of the analysis of current production gives basic assortment with quantities. The final
selection of plant species is conducted comparative analysis of the results obtained with the
analysis of the adaptability of species to specific environmental conditions. The optimal
assortment with amounts is obtained by merging all the previously performed analyzes with an
analysis of long-term sales and placement of products in city nursery.
Model makes it easy to determine the optimal assortment and quantity of plant species
conducting multidimensional analysis. The verification of research should be carried out by
simulating the application of the model in a variety of control systems, in order to be practically
applicable. Simulation will contribute to forming high quality algorithmic models, which will show
the real needs of the city for seedlings and will be the basis for making long-term plans and
programs of planting material production in the city nursery.
Nataa pica, landscape architect
Jove Maksina 50, Panevo, Serbia
email : natasa.spica71@gmail.com

Diagram of model