Donald trump

US election :
Republican Donald J. Trump is the 45th President of the United
States. Mr. Trump is now the oldest person to be elected
President.
Trump defeated Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton by
garnering about 300 votes in the electoral college.
He did so by winning most of the swing states, despite
losing the popular vote marginally to Ms. Clinton.
Trump policy proposals

higher tariffs on trade,

curbing illegal immigration,
increased federal stimulus,
tax cuts for corporations and Americans

Impact on US and World

While the plan did give the US a short-term bump in GDP
growth, it would be a drag on global growth.
Lower imports to the US and a stronger dollar from Federal
Reserve rate hikes, combined with higher servicing costs for
debt held in dollars, would curtail economic activity,
especially in emerging markets, and drive global GDP lower
than it would be otherwise.

One of the highlights of Trumps economic campaign is his plan

to reduce corporate tax rates in the U.S to 15 %
Foreign Policy and Terrorism: Curtail ISIS and curb
immigration from countries that export terror
The Energy Plan: Trump has promised to unleash
Americas shale oil, natural gas and coal reserves to make
U.S energy self-sufficient

According to a chart from Goldman, global growth is

expected to be 0.1% lower annually than the baseline
projection without Trump's policies by 2020. While this
may not seem like a lot, global growth was only at 3.1%
for 2015 and analysts call anything under 2% growth a
global recession, so there is little room for negative
shocks.
The good news starts with US growth, which will almost
surely accelerate above the 2.2% average annual rate
during Barack Obamas second term. This is because the
Republican aversion to public spending and debt applies
only when a Democrat like Obama occupies the White
House. With a Republican president, the party has always
been glad to boost public spending and relax debt limits, as
it was under Presidents Ronald Reagan and George W Bush.
Thus, Trump will be able to implement the Keynesian fiscal
stimulus that Obama often proposed but was unable to
deliver.
The fact remains, though, that America is vulnerable
because neither the US nor her economic partners have
sorted out the global imbalances, as the economists call
them. Instead, for the past two decades, the US and China,
and before that Japan, have indulged in an unsustainable
game whereby the Americans run up huge trade deficits and
the Chinese lend them the cash to keep it going. However,
the mountain of dollars now held in China is so large that it
cannot in reality be spent, or even managed. If they, the
Chinese and Japanese, wanted to dump anything like a
substantial proportion of their $2.5trn in US Treasury bonds,
they would shred their wealth, their trade with the US and
the wider world economy with it. The dollar in 2016, like the
big Wall Street investment banks in 2009, is in that sense

too big to fail. Trouble is, that didnt prevent the banks
failing, and only America saved the world from collapse.
This time, though, who will save America? The world will
have lost its last lender of last resort
Impact on India:

Trump has economic interests in India. He wants to build a

luxurious business tower-Trump Tower- in
Mumbai. The EB-5 visa programme is likely to
further gain traction in India if Trump were to follow
through with his agenda of cutting federal spending while
at the same time easing regulation for businesses.
In his 15-point agenda, Trump said he will curtail
Chinese trade, which is good news for India. Trump
has called for higher tariffs on Chinese goods, litigation
against China for stealing American trade secrets and bring
trade cases against China at the World Trade Organisation
(WTO) to force it to cut down its trade subsidies
Trump made a strong pitch against ISIS and
immigration from countries that export terror and this is
bound to hurt Pakistan. Trump has a plan to establish a
commission on radical Islam, which will launch an
ideological offensive
Trump, in his poll promises, also vowed to unleash
Americas shale oil, natural gas and coal reserves to make
U.S energy self-sufficient. India, which is dependent on
Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)
when it comes paying a price for oil, will benefit as opening
up of the US oil sector will lead to price stability globally.
ONGC will be able to expand operations globally
However, Trump also has soft approach towards Russia
Trump has also vowed to bring back jobs to Americans and
this will impact India in a huge manner. Indians are the top
recipients of the H-1B visas, and this might get a blow.

Trump plans to boost GDP growth to 4% by adding 25 million jobs

over the next decade.
Trump has used colourful adjectives to describe Obamacare during his
campaign and has vowed to scrap the scheme aimed at providing
affordable healthcare to Americans. That could be bad news for the
Indian pharma sector.
China and Pakistan have been using the US as a cash cow for decades:
China by running a huge trade surplus ($366 billion in 2015); Pakistan
by soaking up US aid (more than
$30 billion since 2002), while pretending to fight radical Islam. All
signs indicate that Trump would cut down on the flow of cash to both
these countries.