c



 




c
  is a way of expressing knowledge or belief that an event will occur or has occurred. In
mathematics the concept has been given an exact meaning in probability theory, that is used
extensively in such areas of study as       

! about the likelihood of potential events and the underlying
mechanics of complex systems.The word Probability derives from 
, a measure of the authority
of a witness in a legal case in Europe, and often correlated with the witness's nobility. In a sense, this

 much from the modern meaning of probability, which, in contrast, is used as a measure of the
weight of empirical evidence, and is arrived at from inductive reasoning and   
.The
scientific study of probability is a modern development. "  shows that there has been an
interest in quantifying the ideas of probability for millennia, but exact mathematical descriptions of
use in those problems only arose much later. According to Richard Jeffrey, "Before the middle of the
seventeenth century, the term 'probable' (Latin probabilis) meant approvable, and was applied in that
sense, univocally, to opinion and to action

#cc$ #


  %
  
  
 &
  are in risk assessment and in trade
on commodity markets. Governments typically apply probabilistic methods in environmental
regulation where it is called '    ' often measuring well-being using methods that are
stochastic in nature, and choosing projects to undertake based on statistical analyses of their probable
effect on the population as a whole.
A good (  is the effect of the perceived probability of any widespread Middle East conflict on
oil prices - which have ripple effects in the economy as a whole. An assessment by a commodity
trader that a war is more likely vs. less likely sends prices up or down, and signals other traders of that
opinion. Accordingly, the probabilities are not assessed independently nor necessarily very rationally.
The theory of  &
 finance emerged to describe the effect of such groupthink on pricing, on
policy, and on peace and conflict.
It can reasonably be said that the discovery of rigorous methods to assess and combine probability
assessments has had a profound effect on modern society. Accordingly, it may be of some importance
to most citizens to understand how odds and probability assessments are made, and how they
contribute to reputations and to decisions, especially in a democracy.

|
Another significant application of probability theory in everyday life is
 ) Many consumer
products, such as automobiles and consumer electronics, utilize reliability theory in the design of the
product in order to reduce the probability of failure. The probability of failure may be closely
associated with the product's warranty.

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Empirical Probability of an event is an "estimate" that the event will happen based on
 &!
 
  

! (
 (in a
large number of trials). It is based specifically on direct observations or experiences.
Formula for probability of event E:

c/*01&*!
2 1
&!


Theoretical Probability of an event is the number of ways that the & !

& !
!. It is finding the probability of events that
come from a sample space of known equally likely outcomes.
Formula for probability of event E (from sample space S):

c/*0/*2/01!*2 1!

!
/3

^ Grinstead, Charles Miller; James Laurie Snell. "Introduction". 
!

c
 . pp. vii.
^ "The origins and legacy of 4
&5"
!
", by Glenn Shafer and
Vladimir Vovk


6
 ! 
{1,2,3,4,5,6}

ÿ
 
  6 7 8 9 :
6

  6 7 8 9 :
6 6 66 76 86 96 :6
7 7 67 77 87 97 :7
8 8 68 78 88 98 :8
9 9 69 79 89 99 :9
: : 6: 7: 8: 9: ::
  table

Part 3
a)

Sum of thedots on both turned- Possible outcomes Probability,P(x)

up faces (x)
2 1 1/36
3 2 2/36 = 1/18
4 3 3/36 = 1/12
5 4 4/36 = 1/9
6 5 5/36
7 6 6/36 = 1/6
8 5 5/36
9 4 4/36 = 1/9
10 3 3/36 = 1/12
11 2 2/36 = 1/18
12 1 1/36


b)A={(1,2),(1,3),(1,4),(1,5),(1,6),(2,1),(2,3),(2,4),(2,5),(2,6),(3,1), (3,2),(3,4),(3,5)
,(3,6), (4,1),(4,2),(4,3),(4,5),(4,6),(5,1),(5,2), (5,3),(5,4),(5,6),(6,1),(6,2)(6,3),(6,4),(6,5)}

B= { }=0
C=(1,2),(1,4),(1,6),(2,1)(2,2),(2,3),(2,5),(3,2),(3,3),(3,4),(3,6),(4,1),
(4,3),(4,5)(5,1),(5,2),(5,3),(5,4),(5,5),(5,6),(6,1),(6,3),(6,5)

›={(2,2),(3,3),(3,5),(5,3),(5,5)

Part 4
a)
Sum of two numbers (x) 50 times F(x)
2 1 2
3 3 9
4 0 0
5 7 35
6 12 72
7 6 42
8 7 56
9 3 29
10 3 30
11 5 55
12 3 36

ù

a)(i) mean =
ù


=

=7.32

ù

(ii)variance = -(x)
ù

*
=

A
X