Chapter 3: EIA process

ResourcesScreeningScopingPredictionandmitigationManagementandmonitoring
AuditingPublicparticipationManaginguncertaintyTechniquesFinalreport
Environmentalimpactstatement
TheEIAprocessmakessurethatenvironmentalissuesareraisedwhenaprojectorplanis
firstdiscussedandthatallconcernsareaddressedasaprojectgainsmomentumthroughto
implementation.RecommendationsmadebytheEIAmaynecessitatetheredesignofsome
projectcomponents,requirefurtherstudies,suggestchangeswhichaltertheeconomic
viabilityoftheprojectorcauseadelayinprojectimplementation.Tobeofmostbenefititis
essentialthatanenvironmentalassessmentiscarriedouttodeterminesignificantimpacts
earlyintheprojectcyclesothatrecommendationscanbebuiltintothedesignandcost
benefitanalysiswithoutcausingmajordelaysorincreaseddesigncosts.Tobeeffectiveonce
implementationhascommenced,theEIAshouldleadtoamechanismwherebyadequate
monitoringisundertakentorealizeenvironmentalmanagement.Animportantoutputfrom
theEIAprocessshouldbethedelineationofenablingmechanismsforsucheffective
management.
ThewayinwhichanEIAiscarriedoutisnotrigid:itisaprocesscomprisingaseriesof
steps.ThesestepsareoutlinedbelowandthetechniquesmorecommonlyusedinEIAare
describedinsomedetailinthesectionTechniques.ThemainstepsintheEIAprocessare:
screening
scoping
predictionandmitigation
managementandmonitoring
audit
Figure1showsageneralflowdiagramoftheEIAprocess,howitfitsinwithparallel
technicalandeconomicstudiesandtheroleofpublicparticipation.Insomecases,suchas
smallscaleirrigationschemes,thetransitionfromidentificationthroughtodetaileddesign
mayberapidandsomestepsintheEIAproceduremaybeomitted.
Screeningoftenresultsinacategorizationoftheprojectandfromthisadecisionismade
onwhetherornotafullEIAistobecarriedout.
Scopingistheprocessofdeterminingwhicharethemostcriticalissuestostudyandwill
involvecommunityparticipationtosomedegree.ItisatthisearlystagethatEIAcanmost
stronglyinfluencetheoutlineproposal.
Detailedpredictionandmitigationstudiesfollowscopingandarecarriedoutinparallel
withfeasibilitystudies.
ThemainoutputreportiscalledanEnvironmentalImpactStatement,andcontainsa
detailedplanformanagingandmonitoringenvironmentalimpactsbothduringandafter
implementation.
Finally,anauditoftheEIAprocessiscarriedoutsometimeafterimplementation.The
auditservesausefulfeedbackandlearningfunction.
FIGURE1FlowdiagramoftheEIAprocessandparallelstudies

Resources
AnEIAteamforanirrigationanddrainagestudyislikelytobecomposedofsomeorallof
thefollowing:ateamleader;ahydrologist;anirrigation/drainageengineer;afisheries
biologist/ecologist;anagronomist/pesticideexpert;asoilconservationexpert;a

biological/environmentalscientist;aneconomist,asocialscientistandahealthscientist
(preferablyaepidemiologist).Thefinalstructureoftheteamwillvarydependingonthe
project.Specialistsmayalsoberequiredforfieldwork,laboratorytesting,libraryresearch,
dataprocessing,surveysandmodelling.Theteamleaderwillrequiresignificantmanagement
skilltocoordinatetheworkofateamwithdiverseskillsandknowledge.
TherewillbealargenumberofpeopleinvolvedinEIAapartfromthefulltimeteam
members.Thesepeoplewillbebasedinawiderangeoforganizations,suchastheproject
proposingandauthorizingbodies,regulatoryauthoritiesandvariousinterestgroups.Such
personnelwouldbelocatedinvariousagenciesandalsointheprivatesector;aconsiderable
numberwillneedspecificEIAtraining.
ThelengthoftheEIAwillobviouslydependontheprogramme,planorprojectunderreview.
However,theprocessusuallylastsfrombetween6and18monthsfrompreparationthrough
toreview.Itwillnormallybeapproximatelythesamelengthasthefeasibilitystudyofwhich
itshouldformanintegralpart.ItisessentialthattheEIAteamandtheteamcarryingoutthe
feasibilitystudyworktogetherandnotinisolationfromeachother.Thisoftenprovidesthe
onlyopportunityfordesignchangestobemadeandmitigationmeasurestobeincorporated
intheprojectdesign.
Thecostofthestudywillvaryconsiderablyandonlyverygeneralestimatescanbegiven
here.Typically,costsvaryfrombetween0.1and0.3percentofthetotalprojectcostforlarge
projectsoverUS$100millionandfrom0.2to0.5percentforprojectslessthanUS$100
million.Forsmallprojectsthecostcouldincreasetobetween1and3percentoftheproject
cost.
Screening
ScreeningistheprocessofdecidingonwhetheranEIAisrequired.Thismaybedetermined
bysize(eggreaterthanapredeterminedsurfaceareaofirrigatedlandthatwouldbeaffected,
morethanacertainpercentageorflowtobedivertedormorethanacertaincapital
expenditure).Alternativelyitmaybebasedonsitespecificinformation.Forexample,the
repairofarecentlydestroyeddiversionstructureisunlikelytorequireanEIAwhilstamajor
newheadworkstructuremay.GuidelinesforwhetherornotanEIAisrequiredwillbe
countryspecificdependingonthelawsornormsinoperation.Legislationoftenspecifiesthe
criteriaforscreeningandfullEIA.Allmajordonorsscreenprojectspresentedforfinancing
todecidewhetheranEIAisrequired.
TheoutputfromthescreeningprocessisoftenadocumentcalledanInitialEnvironmental
ExaminationorEvaluation(IEE).Themainconclusionwillbeaclassificationofthe
projectaccordingtoitslikelyenvironmentalsensitivity.ThiswilldeterminewhetheranEIA
isneededandifsotowhatdetail.
Scoping
Scopingoccursearlyintheprojectcycleatthesametimeasoutlineplanningandpre
feasibilitystudies.Scopingistheprocessofidentifyingthekeyenvironmentalissuesandis
perhapsthemostimportantstepinanEIA.Severalgroups,particularlydecisionmakers,the
localpopulationandthescientificcommunity,haveaninterestinhelpingtodeliberatethe
issueswhichshouldbeconsidered,andscopingisdesignedtocanvasstheirviews,(Wathern
1988).
Scopingisimportantfortworeasons.First,sothatproblemscanbepinpointedearlyallowing
mitigatingdesignchangestobemadebeforeexpensivedetailedworkiscarriedout.Second,
toensurethatdetailedpredictionworkisonlycarriedoutforimportantissues.Itisnotthe
purposeofanEIAtocarryoutexhaustivestudiesonallenvironmentalimpactsforall

projects.IfkeyissuesareidentifiedandafullscaleEIAconsiderednecessarythenthe
scopingshouldincludetermsofreferenceforthesefurtherstudies.
Atthisstagetheoptionexistsforcancellingordrasticallyrevisingtheprojectshouldmajor
environmentalproblemsbeidentified.EquallyitmaybetheendoftheEIAprocessshould
theimpactsbefoundtobeinsignificant.Oncethisstagehaspassed,theopportunityformajor
changestotheprojectisrestricted.
Beforethescopingexercisecanbefullystarted,theremitofthestudyneedstobedefined
andagreedbytherelevantparties.Thesewillvarydependingontheinstitutionalstructure.At
aminimum,thosewhoshouldcontributetodeterminingtheremitwillincludethosewho
decidewhetherapolicyorprojectisimplemented,thosecarryingouttheEIA(orresponsible
forhavingitcarriedoutbyothers)andthosecarryingoutparallelengineeringandeconomic
studiesrelatingtotheproposal.Chapter5givesdetailsonpreparingtermsofreferenceforan
EIA.Acriticalissuetodetermineisthebreadthofthestudy.Forexample,ifaproposed
projectistoincreasetheareaofirrigatedagricultureinaregionby10%,istheremitofthe
EIAtostudytheproposalonlyoralsotoconsideroptionsthatwouldhavethesameeffecton
production?
Amajoractivityofscopingistoidentifykeyinterestgroups,bothgovernmentalandnon
governmental,andtoestablishgoodlinesofcommunication.Peoplewhoareaffectedbythe
projectneedtohearaboutitassoonaspossible.Theirknowledgeandperspectivesmayhave
amajorbearingonthefocusoftheEIA.Rapidruralappraisaltechniquesprovideameansof
assessingtheneedsandviewsoftheaffectedpopulation.
ThemainEIAtechniquesusedinscopingarebaselinestudies,checklists,matricesand
networkdiagrams.Thesetechniquescollectandpresentknowledgeandinformationina
straightforwardwaysothatlogicaldecisionscanbemadeaboutwhichimpactsaremost
significant.RiskanduncertaintyarediscussedfurtherinthesectionManaginguncertainty.
Prediction and mitigation
Oncethescopingexerciseiscompleteandthemajorimpactstobestudiedhavebeen
identified,predictionworkcanstart.ThisstageformsthecentralpartofanEIA.Several
majoroptionsarelikelytohavebeenproposedeitheratthescopingstageorbeforeandeach
optionmayrequireseparatepredictionstudies.Realisticandaffordablemitigatingmeasures
cannotbeproposedwithoutfirstestimatingthescopeoftheimpacts,whichshouldbein
monetarytermswhereverpossible.Itthenbecomesimportanttoquantifytheimpactofthe
suggestedimprovementsbyfurtherpredictionwork.Clearly,optionsneedtobediscardedas
soonastheirunsuitabilitycanbeprovedoralternativesshowntobesuperiorin
environmentaloreconomicterms,orboth.Itisalsoimportanttotestthe"withoutproject"
scenario.
Animportantoutcomeofthisstagewillberecommendationsformitigatingmeasures.This
wouldbecontainedintheEnvironmentalImpactStatement.Clearlytheaimwillbeto
introducemeasureswhichminimizeanyidentifiedadverseimpactsandenhancepositive
impacts.Formalandinformalcommunicationlinksneedtobeestablishedwithteams
carryingoutfeasibilitystudiessothattheirworkcantakeproposalsintoaccount.Similarly,
feasibilitystudiesmayindicatethatsomeoptionsaretechnicallyoreconomically
unacceptableandthusenvironmentalpredictionworkfortheseoptionswillnotberequired.
Manymitigatingmeasuresdonotdefinephysicalchangesbutrequiremanagementor
institutionalchangesoradditionalinvestment,suchasforhealthservices.Mitigating
measuresmayalsobeproceduralchanges,forexample,theintroductionof,orincreasein,
irrigationservicefeestopromoteefficiencyandwaterconservation.Table6inChapter4
describesthemostcommonadverseimpactsassociatedwithirrigationanddrainageschemes

andsomeappropriatemitigatingmeasures.
Bythetimepredictionandmitigationareundertaken,theprojectpreparationwillbe
advancedandadecisionwillmostlikelyhavebeenmadetoproceedwiththeproject.
Considerableexpendituremayhavealreadybeenmadeandbudgetsallocatedforthe
implementationoftheproject.Majorchangescouldbedisruptivetoprojectprocessingand
onlyacceptedifpredictionshowsthatimpactswillbeconsiderablyworsethanoriginally
identifiedatthescopingstage.Forexample,anacceptablemeasuremightbetoalterthe
modeofoperationofareservoirtoprotectdownstreamfisheries,butameasureproposingan
alternativetodamconstructioncouldbehighlycontentiousatthisstage.Toavoidconflictit
isimportantthattheEIAprocesscommencesearlyintheprojectcycle.
ThisphaseofanEIAwillrequiregoodmanagementofawiderangeoftechnicalspecialists
withparticularemphasison:
predictionmethods;
interpretationofpredictions,withandwithoutmitigatingmeasures;
assessmentofcomparisons.
Itisimportanttoassesstherequiredlevelofaccuracyofpredictions.Mathematical
modellingisavaluabletechnique,butcaremustbetakentochoosemodelsthatsuitthe
availabledata.Becauseofthelevelofavailableknowledgeandthecomplexityofthe
systems,physicalsystemsaremodelledmoresuccessfullythanecologicalsystemswhichin
turnaremoresuccessfullymodelledthansocialsystems.Socialstudies(including
institutionalcapacitystudies)willprobablyproduceoutputinnonnumericalterms.Expert
advice,particularlyfromexpertsfamiliarwiththelocality,canprovidequantificationof
impactsthatcannotbemodelled.Varioustechniquesareavailabletoremovethebiasof
individualopinion.
Checklists,matrices,networksdiagrams,graphicalcomparisonsandoverlays,areall
techniquesdevelopedtohelpcarryoutanEIAandpresenttheresultsofanEIAinaformat
usefulforcomparingoptions.Themainquantifiablemethodsofcomparingoptionsareby
applyingweightings,toenvironmentalimpactsorusingeconomiccostbenefitanalysisora
combinationofthetwo.Numericalvalues,orweightings,canbeappliedtodifferent
environmentalimpactsto(subjectively)definetheirrelativeimportance.Assigningeconomic
valuestoallenvironmentalimpactsisnotrecommendedastheissuesareobscuredbythe
single,finalanswer.However,economictechniques,canprovideinsightintocomparative
importancewheredifferentenvironmentalimpactsaretobecompared,suchaseitherlosing
morewetlandsorresettlingagreaternumberofpeople.
Whencomparingarangeofproposalsoravarietyofmitigationorenhancementactivities,a
numberofcharacteristicsofdifferentimpactsneedtobehighlighted.Therelativeimportance
ofimpactsneedsagreeing,usuallyfollowingamethodofreachingaconsensusbutincluding
economicconsiderations.Theuncertaintyinpredictingtheimpactshouldbeclearlynoted.
Finally,thetimeframeinwhichtheimpactwilloccurshouldbeindicated,includingwhether
ornottheimpactisirreversible.
Management and monitoring
ThepartoftheEIScoveringmonitoringandmanagementisoftenreferredtoasthe
EnvironmentalActionPlanorEnvironmentalManagementPlan.Thissectionnotonly
setsoutthemitigationmeasuresneededforenvironmentalmanagement,bothintheshortand
longterm,butalsotheinstitutionalrequirementsforimplementation.Theterm'institutional'
isusedhereinitsbroadestcontexttoencompassrelationships:
establishedbylawbetweenindividualsandgovernment;
betweenindividualsandgroupsinvolvedineconomictransactions;

developedtoarticulatelegal,financialandadministrativelinksamongpublicagencies;
motivatedbysociopsychologicalstimuliamonggroupsandindividuals(Craine,1971).
Theabovelisthighlightsthebreadthofoptionsavailableforenvironmentalmanagement,
namely:changesinlaw;changesinprices;changesingovernmentalinstitutions;and,
changesinculturewhichmaybeinfluencedbyeducationandinformationdissemination.All
themanagementproposalsneedtobeclearlydefinedandcosted.Oneofthemore
straightforwardandeffectivechangesistosetupamonitoringprogrammewithclear
definitionastowhichagenciesareresponsiblefordatacollection,collation,interpretation
andimplementationofmanagementmeasures.
Thepurposeofmonitoringistocomparepredictedandactualimpacts,particularlyifthe
impactsareeitherveryimportantorthescaleoftheimpactcannotbeveryaccurately
predicted.Theresultsofmonitoringcanbeusedtomanagetheenvironment,particularlyto
highlightproblemsearlysothatactioncanbetaken.Therangeofparametersrequiring
monitoringmaybebroadornarrowandwillbedictatedbythe'predictionandmitigation'
stageoftheEIA.Typicalareasofconcernwheremonitoringisweakare:waterquality,both
inflowandoutflow;stressinsensitiveecosystems;soilfertility,particularlysalinization
problems;waterrelatedhealthhazards;equityofwaterdistributions;groundwaterlevels.
Theuseofsatelliteimagerytomonitorchangesinlanduseandthe'health'ofthelandandsea
isbecomingmorecommonandcanproveacosteffectivetool,particularlyinareaswithpoor
access.Remotelysenseddatahavetheadvantageofnotbeingconstrainedbypoliticaland
administrativeboundaries.TheycanbeusedasoneparticularoverlayinaGIS.However,
authorizationisneededfortheiruse,whichmaybelinkedtonationalsecurityissues,and
maythusbehamperedbyreluctantgovernments.
Monitoringshouldnotbeseenasanopenendedcommitmenttocollectdata.Iftheneedfor
monitoringceases,datacollectionshouldcease.Conversely,monitoringmayrevealtheneed
formoreintensivestudyandtheinstitutionalinfrastructuremustbesufficientlyflexibleto
adapttochangingdemands.Theinformationobtainedfrommonitoringandmanagementcan
beextremelyusefulforfutureEIAs,makingthembothmoreaccurateandmoreefficient.
TheEnvironmentalManagementPlanneedstonotonlyincludeclearrecommendationsfor
actionandtheproceduresfortheirimplementationbutmustalsodefineaprogrammeand
costs.Itmustbequiteclearexactlyhowmanagementandmitigationmethodsarephased
withprojectimplementationandwhencostswillbeincurred.Mitigationandmanagement
measureswillnotbeadoptedunlesstheycanbeshowntobepracticableandgoodvaluefor
money.Theplanshouldalsostipulatethatif,duringprojectimplementation,majorchanges
areintroduced,oriftheprojectisaborted,theEIAprocedureswillberestartedtoevaluate
theeffectofsuchactions.
Auditing
Inordertocapitaliseontheexperienceandknowledgegained,thelaststageofanEIAisto
carryoutanEnvironmentalAuditsometimeaftercompletionoftheprojector
implementationofaprogramme.Itwillthereforeusuallybedonebyaseparateteamof
specialiststothatworkingonthebulkoftheEIA.Theauditshouldincludeananalysisofthe
technical,proceduralanddecisionmakingaspectsoftheEIA.Technicalaspectsinclude:the
adequacyofthebaselinestudies,theaccuracyofpredictionsandthesuitabilityofmitigation
measures.Proceduralaspectsinclude:theefficiencyoftheprocedure,thefairnessofthe
publicinvolvementmeasuresandthedegreeofcoordinationofrolesandresponsibilities.
Decisionmakingaspectsinclude:theutilityoftheprocessfordecisionmakingandthe
implicationsfordevelopment,(adaptedfromSadlerinWathern,1988).Theauditwill
determinewhetherrecommendationsandrequirementsmadebytheearlierEIAstepswere

incorporatedsuccessfullyintoprojectimplementation.Lessonslearntandformallydescribed
inanauditcangreatlyassistinfutureEIAsandbuilduptheexpertiseandefficiencyofthe
concernedinstitutions.
Public participation
Projectsorprogrammeshavesignificantimpactsonthelocalpopulation.Whilsttheaimisto
improvethewellbeingofthepopulation,alackofunderstandingofthepeopleandtheir
societymayresultindevelopmentthathasconsiderablenegativeconsequences.More
significantly,theremaybedivergencebetweennationaleconomicinterestsandthoseofthe
localpopulation.Forexample,theneedtoincreaselocalriceproductiontosatisfyincreasing
consumptionintheurbanareamaydifferfromtheneedsasperceivedbythelocalfarmers.
Toallowforthis,publicparticipationintheplanningprocessisessential.TheEIAprovides
anidealforumforcheckingthattheaffectedpublichavebeenadequatelyconsultedandtheir
viewstakenintoaccountinprojectpreparation.
Thelevelofconsultationwillvarydependingonthetypeofplanorproject.Newprojects
involvingresettlementordisplacementwillrequirethemostextensivepublicparticipation.
Asstatedbefore,thepurposeofanEIAistoimproveprojectsandthis,tosomeextent,can
onlybeachievedbyinvolvingthosepeopledirectlyorindirectlyaffected.Thevalueof
environmentalamenitiesisnotabsoluteandconsensusisonewayofestablishingvalues.
Publicconsultationwillrevealnewinformation,improveunderstandingandenablebetter
choicestobemade.Withoutconsultation,legitimateissuesmaynotbeheard,leadingto
conflictandunsustainability.
Thecommunityshouldnotonlybeconsultedtheyshouldbeactivelyinvolvedin
environmentalmatters.TheInternationalUnionfortheConservationofNature,IUCN
promotestheconceptofPrimaryEnvironmentalCarewherebyfarmers,forexample,with
assistancefromextensionservices,aredirectlyinvolvedinenvironmentalmanagement.The
earlierthepublicareinvolved,thebetter.Ideallythiswillbebeforeadevelopmentproposal
isfullydefined.Itisanessentialfeatureofsuccessfulscoping,atwhichstagefeedbackwill
havethemaximuminfluence.Opennessaboutuncertaintyshouldbeasignificantfeatureof
thisprocess.AstheEIAprogresses,publicconsultationislikelytobedecreasedthoughitis
importanttodisseminateinformation.ThepublicationofthedraftEnvironmentalImpact
Statement(EIS),willnormallybeaccompaniedbysomesortofpublichearingthatneedsto
bechairedbyapersonwithgoodcommunicationskills.He/shemaynotbeamemberofthe
EIAteam.
Therearenoclearrulesabouthowtoinvolvethepublicanditisimportantthattheprocess
remainsinnovativeandflexible.Inpractice,theviewsofpeopleaffectedbytheplanare
likelytobeheardthroughsomeformofrepresentationratherthandirectly.Itistherefore
importanttounderstandhowdecisionsaremadelocallyandwhatarethemethodsof
communication,includingavailablegovernmentextensionservices.Therangeofgroups
outsidetheformalstructurewithrelevantinformationarelikelytoinclude:technicaland
scientificsocieties;WaterUserGroups;NGOs;expertsonlocalculture;andreligiousgroups.
However,itisimportanttofindoutwhichgroupsareunderrepresentedandwhichonesare
responsibleforaccesstonaturalresources,namely:grazing,water,fishingandforest
products.Theviewsofracialminorities,women,religiousminorities,politicalminoritiesand
lowercastgroupsarecommonlyoverlooked,(WorldBank,1991).
TherehasbeenanenormousincreaseinthenumberofenvironmentalNGOsand"Green"
pressuregroupsthroughouttheworld.Suchorganizationsoftenbringenvironmentalissuesto
theattentionofthelocalpress.However,thisshouldnotdeterconsultationwithsuch
organizationsastheapproachtoEIAshouldbeopenandpositivewiththeaimofmaking

improvements.RelevantNGOsshouldbeidentifiedandtheirexperienceandtechnical
capacityputtogooduse.
Insomecountries,openpublicmeetingsarethemostcommontechniquetoenablepublic
participation.However,thesortofopendebateengenderedatsuchmeetingsisoftenboth
culturallyalienandunacceptable.Alternativetechniquesmustbeused.Surveys,workshops,
smallgroupmeetingsandinterviewswithkeygroupsandindividualsarealltechniquesthat
maybeuseful.Toolssuchasmaps,modelsandposterscanhelptoillustratepointsand
improvecommunication.Whereresettlementisproposed,extensivepublicparticipationmust
beallowedwhichwill,ataminimum,involveanexperiencedanthropologistorsociologist
whospeaksthelocallanguage.He/shecanexpecttospendmonths,ratherthanweeks,inthe
field.
Informationdisseminationcanbeachievedusinganumberofmechanismsincludingthe
broadcastingmedia,inparticularnewspapersandradio.Postersandleafletsarealsouseful
andneedtobedistributedwidelytosuchlocationsasschools,clinics,postoffices,
communitycentres,religiousbuildings,busstops,shopsetc.TheEIAprocessmustbeseen
tobefair.
Thepublicparticipation/consultationandinformationdisseminationactivitiesneedtobe
plannedandbudgeted.Thesocialscientistteammembershoulddefinehowandwhen
activitiestakeplaceandalsothestrategy:extensivefieldworkisexpensive.Itisimportantto
notethatpublicparticipationactivitiesareoftenreportedasaseparatesectionofthefinal
EIA.Whereexperienceofmanagingcommunityinvolvementislimited,trainingishighly
recommended.Furtherreadingonpublicparticipationcanbeobtainedfrom:AhmedLandG
KSammy(1988)andonRapidRuralAppraisalfromChambersR(1981).RapidRural
Appraisaltechniquesmaybeanappropriateandcosteffectivemethodofassessment.
Managing uncertainty
AnEIAinvolvespredictionandthusuncertaintyisanintegralpart.Therearetwotypesof
uncertaintyassociatedwithenvironmentalimpactassessments:thatassociatedwiththe
processand,thatassociatedwithpredictions.Withtheformertheuncertaintyiswhetherthe
mostimportantimpactshavebeenidentifiedorwhetherrecommendationswillbeactedupon
orignored.Forthelattertheuncertaintyisintheaccuracyofthefindings.Themaintypesof
uncertaintyandthewaysinwhichtheycanbeminimizedarediscussedbydeJonghin
Wathern(1988).Theycanbesummarizedasfollows:
uncertaintyofprediction:thisisimportantatthedatacollectionstageandthefinalcertainty
willonlyberesolvedonceimplementationcommences.Researchcanreducetheuncertainty;
uncertaintyofvalues:thisreflectstheapproachtakenintheEIAprocess.Finalcertainty
willbedeterminedatthetimedecisionsaremade.Improvedcommunicationsandextensive
negotiationsshouldreducethisuncertainty;
uncertaintyofrelateddecision:thisaffectsthedecisionmakingelementoftheEIAprocess
andfinalcertaintywillbedeterminedbypostevaluation.Improvedcoordinationwillreduce
uncertainty.
Theimportanceofverywideconsultationcannotbeoveremphasizedinminimizingtherisk
ofmissingimportantimpacts.Thesignificanceofimpactsissubjective,butthevalue
judgementsrequiredarebestarrivedatbyconsensus:publicparticipationandconsultation
withawidesectorofthecommunitywillreduceuncertainty.Onecommonlyrecurringtheme
isthedilemmaofwhethertoplacegreatervalueonshorttermbenefitsorlongterm
problems.
Theaccuracyofpredictionsisdependentonavarietyoffactorssuchaslackofdataorlackof
knowledge.Itisimportantnottofocusonpredictionsthatarerelativelyeasytocalculateat

theexpenseofimpactsthatmaybefarmoresignificantbutdifficulttoanalyse.Prediction
capabilitiesaregenerallygoodinthephysicalandchemicalsciences,moderateinecological
sciencesandpoorinsocialsciences.Surveysarethemostwidespreadtechniquefor
estimatingpeople'sresponsesandpossiblefutureactions.
TheresultsoftheEIAshouldindicatethelevelofuncertaintywiththeuseofconfidence
limitsandprobabilityanalyseswhereverpossible.Sensitivityanalysissimilartothatusedin
economicevaluation,couldbeusedifadequatequantifiabledataareavailable.Arangeof
outcomescanbefoundbyrepeatingpredictionsandadjustingkeyvariables.
EIAcannotgiveaprecisepictureofthefuture,muchastheEconomicInternalRateof
Returncannotgiveapreciseindicationofeconomicsuccess.EIAenablesuncertaintytobe
managedand,assuch,isanaidtobetterdecisionmaking.Ausefulmanagementaxiomisto
preserveflexibilityinthefaceofuncertainty.
Techniques
BaselinestudiesTheICIDChecklistMatricesNetworkdiagramsOverlaysMathematical
modellingExpertadviceEconomictechniques
Baseline studies
Baselinestudiesusingavailabledataandlocalknowledgewillberequiredforscoping.Once
keyissueshavebeenidentified,theneedforfurtherindepthstudiescanbeclearlyidentified
andanyadditionaldatacollectioninitiated.TheICIDChecklistwillbefoundusefulto
definebothcoarseinformationrequiredforscopingandfurtherbaselinestudiesrequiredfor
predictionandmonitoring.Specialists,preferablywithlocalknowledge,willbeneededin
eachkeyareaidentified.Theywillneedtodefinefurtherdatacollection,toensurethatitis
efficientandtargetedtoanswerspecificquestions,andtoquantifyimpacts.Afullyearof
baselinedataisdesirabletocaptureseasonaleffectsofmanyenvironmentalphenomena.
However,toavoiddelayindecisionmaking,shorttermdatamonitoringshouldbe
undertakeninparallelwithlongtermcollectiontoprovideconservativeestimatesof
environmentalimpacts.
The ICID Check-list
Acomprehensiveanduserfriendlychecklistisaninvaluableaidforseveralactivitiesofan
EIA,particularlyscopinganddefiningbaselinestudies."TheICIDEnvironmentalCheck
ListtoIdentifyEnvironmentalEffectsofIrrigation,DrainageandFloodControlProjects"
(MockandBolton,1993)isrecommendedforuseinanyirrigationanddrainageEIA.The
Checklisthasbeenpreparedfornonspecialistsandenablesmuchtimeconsumingworkto
becarriedoutinadvanceofexpertinput.Itincludesextensivedatacollectionsheets.The
collecteddatacanthenbeusedtoansweraseriesofquestionstoidentifymajorimpactsand
toidentifyshortagesofdata.Amatrixindicateswhichdataarelinkedtowhichquestions.
Chapter4describesthemajorimpactsbasedonthe8Checklisttopics.
TheresultssheetfromtheChecklistisreproducedasTable1.Theverysimplelayoutofthe
sheetenablesanoverviewofimpactstobepresentedclearlywhichisofenormousvaluefor
thescopingprocess.Similarly,datashortagescanbereadilyseen.Theprocessofusingthe
ICIDChecklistmayberepeatedatdifferentstagesofanEIAwithvaryinglevelsofdetail.
Oncescopinghasbeencompleted,theresultssheetmaybemodifiedtoomitminortopicsand
tochangethehorizontalclassificationtoprovidefurtherinformationabouttheimpactsbeing
assessed.AtthispointtheoutputfromtheChecklistcanbeusefulasaninputtomatrices.
TheICIDChecklistisalsoavailableasaWINDOWSbasedsoftwarepackage.Thisenables
therapidproductionofareportdirectlyfromthefieldstudy.

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