o Tracked al quaeda back to Afghanistan o Fighting al quaeda, Taliban forces o Border with Pakistan – very long Very difficult to patrol/ secure due to length o Sharp increase in 2009 in war escalation Focus of US was on Iraq, resources to Afghanistan fell causing escalation Obama decided a surge in 30k troops o Scale of Taliban covers large percentage of southwestern Afghanistan; other militant regions Taliban ran by Kharzi Strong border with Iran (no Taliban spillover); Taliban spillover into Pakistan Border areas show higher percentage of security incidents/ insurgent activities Afghan impacts proliferate into Pakistan instability = Pakistan as “safe haven” for terrorists • Can allow them to target various areas with room to retreat (ie. India) Civilian life within insurgent areas makes life increasingly troublesome IED (improvised explosive device) use dramatically increasing • Can use this as DA ground for neg – need troops to clear o Turn: IEDs usually targeted at troops o Can never be effective enough to diffuse them all • motive > means o Poppy cultivation US tries to eliminate these poppy fields • Obama administration advocated efforts to eradicate poppy fields • Destroys profit, local economy – civilian livelihood o Obama admin decided to find a substitute crop & police heroin trade Taliban can use poppy profit to purchase arms Helmand province one of the largest opium producers Non-opium provinces uncoincidently have a lower crime rate o Allied efforts Confusing jurisdiction – multiple countries policing each province Ambiguous leadership DoD complexity causing transparent strategy How will US withdrawal affect the other countries’ police presences? Complex withdrawal o Civilian casualties Human rights “hearts & minds” war – similar to Vietnam war • Guts US support Drones keep targeting weddings • ISAF-responsible attacks directly influence other civilian casualty activity • = more civilian casualties • August 09 – US recognizes the problem of civilian casualties o PIC out of drones, etc. o “remove v. reform” o ASNF (Afghan National Security Force) goals Goal - 240k troops by 2013 (enough to sustain) Obama admin – start withdrawal by 2011 • Immediate withdrawal (premature by ASNF terms) could potentially leave Afghanistan unable to defend itself Obama strategy dictates the withdrawal mechanism – dictates the timetable Have to reduce presence Condition CP • Withdraw on the condition that the ASNF meets the designated troop level to sustain itself o Kandahar 2nd largest opium producer, 2nd largest city Cultural center for the Pashtun people • Ethnic group originated out of Taliban Heavy warlord activity • No real central gov. • Economic inequity – black market, corruption • US wanted to kick Taliban out o Coin = counter insurgency o Trouble isolating the Pashtuns Requires “infiltration” to integrate • Pashtun warlords in gov. Alienation of Pashtuns o Issue of corrupt gov. v. no gov. o Similar to Iraq issue – corruption > no gov ? o Karzai gov. not able to negotiate with corrupt gov. o US withdrawal may allow a coalition of gov. Corrupt but o/w no gov. o Complex insurgency and complex emergency Impossible to distinguish between insurgent & civilian o Withdrawal timeline Proposed withdrawal by 2011 Conflicting ANSF timeline • CP ground o Ground One core affirmative – pullout, reduce bases • As long as US wins, war cannot be won • Troops are counter productive o IED casualties o Drone accidents • Presence – options for reform • Adv. Ground o US pullout = buildup of Afghan force (US “crutch”) o Tradeoff – better troops placed elsewhere • Military presence o Purpose – power (HEG), security, stability o Opposite effect Superpower conflict - ie. Pakistan Invasion • Superpower intervention • *Russia has had Afghanistan before with no nuclear escalation* Not forward deploy troops = no conflict b/c no intervention o Lithium deposits Afghanistan cannot mine it – illiteracy, no gov., etc. • If mining was available, could replace opium profits = success o Other things US counternarcotics aff Military presence consists of bases and troops UAV/drones present PMCs, mercenaries, etc. used (blackwater co.) • Troop withdrawal = increase in PMC use • Allows obama to stick to withdrawal timeline while keeping the war going with PMCs o Take PMCs with? • PMC use worse/better than US military • 200-hamburger-guy-who-shoots-Iraqis card (lolz) o Police presence PMCs topical under “police” label? • Counter Narcotic Administration • CIA Specify a type of police presence to decrease o Neg “jist” Unstable infrastructure DA Opium economy DA Taliban DA Pakistani conflict DA “COIN” DA • clear, hold, build US weak image = heg loss Timeframe CP Condition CP • ANSF troop goal Kritik args – Pashtun people, capitalism (opium profit), security, etc. Superpower DA IEDs, UAV accidents, terrorism DAs
Alistair R. Mowbray The Development of Positive Obligations Under The European Convention On Human Rights by The European Court of Human Rights Human Rights Law in Persp PDF