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IEA Report

9th Dec 2016


BLUESTARCO

"BUY"

9th Dec 2016

Going forward Q3FY17 and Q4FY17 sales will be impacted due to scarcity of new currency. As per the management H2FY17 will have some
challenges because Room-Air conditioners buyers are first time buyers. Company is not seeing any behavioral change in demand from real estate
sector yet and expected things to normalized probably by March. On the positive side the order book is up by 15% over last year and this is good
sign for the future growth. The Company intends to continue to make investments in manufacturing, marketing, brand building, product
development as well as human resources in the next few quarters in order to capitalise on the imminent growth opportunities.We have change our
Sales and PAT estimates due to demonetization but in a long term point of view we are optimistic about the stock hence we recommend BUY to
the stock at a revised target price of Rs 535. ................................. ( Page : 2-5)

PRAJIND

"BUY"

8th Dec 2016

Praj reported weak set of the numbers in Q2FY17 but considering the government emphasis on reducing import bill of oil and produce more
domestically coupled with focus on higher blending in a scenario where crude prices are going high, may auger well for the company as praj is the
prominent and only Indian company in 2G technology based Boi-Ethanol. We find this correction healthy and consider it a good entry point around
Rs.75 for medium to long term investors. We remain positive with a target price of Rs. 88 . ............................................. ( Page : 6-8)
"SUBSCRIBE"

Lauras Labs Ltd

7th Dec 2016

Company strategic and early investments in R&D and manufacturing infrastructure has enabled to become one of the leading suppliers of APIs in
the ARV therapeutic area to reap long term benefits on account of a robust business model, healthy balance sheet, strong business prospects in
terms of multiple levers in place for growth and ability of the management to leverage its capabilities in a bid to cultivate its business.
At the higher end of the price band of Rs 428, the IPO is valued at 12.6x EV/EBITDA and 34.1x P/E on FY16 basis. We believe the company is being
offered at upper band of its valuations. We maintain "SUBCRIBE" on this IPO. .......................................... ( Page : 9 -10)

ONGC

"BUY"

7th Dec 2016

ONGC is likely to achieve its annual target of 5.87MT crude production in FY17. The company has already crossed its daily production target of
16200 tonnes per day as compared to 15300 tonnes in Aug 2015. Recent upsurge in the crude oil prices will make onshore production viable. The
management has also guided that no subsidy has been decided by the government in FY17, thus benefits of higher crude would flow into the
company. Considering above arguments we recommend BUY on this stock with a target price of Rs. 365. ............................................... ( Page :
11 -13)

EICHERMOT

"NEUTRAL"

6th Dec 2016

Going forward, we expect capacity addition in line with demand(RE), seventh pay commission payout, expectation of pre-buying on new emission
norms and improving infrastructure activities in the country may be next growth drivers for the company. But in the near term we see some stress
in demand due to demonetisation and see some tapering of growth due to higher base in previous year. Presently, we are 'Neutral' on this stock
considering lateset demonetisation and confusion regarding the demand scenario, with a target price of Rs. 26000. Earlier, we recommended 'BUY'
on this stock at Rs.19753, and 'Booked Profit' at Rs.24777, an upside of 25%. ......... ( Page : 14-16)

SADBHAV

"BUY"

5th Dec 2016

Though the execution in Q2FY17 was slow due to heavy monsoon, we expect full fledged execution in H2FY17 will help SADBHAV to register robust
revenue growth. Reduced working capital from Irrigation project and repayment of loan from SIPL will strengthen companys balance sheet
position. SADBHAV is better placed to grab opportunities from upcoming government spending to boost infrastructure. We are keeping our positive
stance on stock. We maintain Buy rating for a target price of 315/- .......... ( Page :13 -16)

BANKBARODA

"BUY"

2nd Dec 2016

Focus of the management on profitability has resulted in steady quarter this time. BoB has shown a sign of improvement in its profitability. In the
clean up exercise, BoB has recognised huge stress assets in its balance sheet. Going forward we expect the stress assets to decline significantly thus
resulting in credit cost to decline. However BoB needs to come out of the consolidation of advances and should grow its loan portfolio to further
support the operating profitability. Strong capitalization of 12.9% CRAR (Tier 1 at 10.6%) will help the bank to grow further without any near term
dilution. We recommend BUY with the target price of Rs 188. ....... ( Page : 17-21)
Narnolia Securities Ltd

IEA Edition No.-

901

BUY
BLUE STAR LTD.

9-Dec-16
Impact of Demonetization

Result Update
CMP

471

Target Price

535

Demonetization may impact Q3FY17 sales of the company. Generally 3rd


quarter is always a weak season for ACs and only 35% of total sales is done
through cash in tier I and tier II markets so we do not see huge impact of
demonetization. But in tier III, tier IV and tier V markets cash sales ratio is
higher (60%) than tier I and tier II markets so here we can see some impact
of it but it will for short term period. Overall there will be marginal impact of
demonetization in the company and company is not seeing any behavioural
change in demand from real sector yet.

Previous Target Price


Upside

14%

Change from Previous

Market Data

450 cr expansion on the cards

BSE Code

Blue Star is planning to invest Rs 450 crore in the next three years. The airconditioner maker is getting consumers focus after entering the residential
air conditioner and water purifier segment.

500067

NSE Symbol

BLUESTARCO
581/306
4,497
485
8247

52wk Range H/L


Mkt Capital (Rs Cr)
Av. Volume
Nifty

Q2FY17_Result Highlights
The Company has reported a Total Operating Income of Rs 899 cr for the
quarter ended Sep 30, 2016 on a consolidated basis as compared to Rs 777
cr in the same period last year representing a growth of 16%. EBITDA Rs 41
cr As compare to 35 cr in the same period last year. Financial Expenses for
the quarter declined by 22% to Rs 8.75 crores from Rs 11.27 crores in
Q2FY16, mainly due to reduced cost of borrowings.

Stock Performance
1Month

3 Month

1Year

Absolute

-13.4

27.1

11.0

Rel.to Nifty

-9.5

20.9

11.3

Outlook and Valuation


Share Holding Pattern-%
2QFY17

1QFY17 4QFY16

Promoter

39.12

39.04

39.46

Public

60.88

60.96

60.54

Others

--

--

--

100

100

100

Total

Going forward Q3FY17 and Q4FY17 sales will be impacted due to scarcity of
new currency. As per the management H2FY17 will have some challenges
because Room-Air conditioners buyers are first time buyers. Company is not
seeing any behavioral change in demand from real estate sector yet and
expected things to normalized probably by March. On the positive side the
order book is up by 15% over last year and this is good sign for the future
growth. The Company intends to continue to make investments in
manufacturing, marketing, brand building, product development as well as
human resources in the next few quarters in order to capitalise on the
imminent growth opportunities.We have change our Sales and PAT
estimates due to demonetization but in a long term point of view we are
optimistic about the stock hence we recommend BUY to the stock at a
revised target price of Rs 535.

Company Vs NIFTY
160

BLUESTARCO

NIFTY

150
140

130
120

110

Rs 'Cr

100

90

Bibha Kashyap
bibha.kashyap@narnolia.com

Dec-16

Oct-16

Nov-16

Sep-16

Aug-16

Jul-16

Jun-16

May-16

Apr-16

Mar-16

Jan-16

Dec-15

Nov-15

80

Financials

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17E

Sales
EBITDA
Net Profit
EBIDTA%
P/E

2924
90
39
3.1%
0.01

2934
150
78
5.1%
0.03

3182
167
54
5.3%
0.02

3770
216
109
5.7%
0.03

3825
228
113
6.0%
0.03

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

Investment Arguments :
The wide product range including state-of-the-art inverter split air conditioners, enhanced distribution reach and
premium brand equity will further strenghten the performance of the product business.
The electro-mechanical projects business has been showing signs of improvement in some markets and application
segments.
With additional product lines being added to the Companys portfolio such as water purifiers, Blue Star expects air
coolers and air purifiers, to sustain its growth momentum in FY17 as well.
Substantial repayment of debt would be constrained by working capital needs as the company expects strong growth
in FY17.
The companys Room-Air conditioning (RAC) business has been outgrowing the industry by 10% points over the last
few quarters, resulting in the company consistently increasing its market share.

Order book :
Book to bill

1.17
1.07
1.02
0.87
0.90
1.09
1.12
0.97
1.04
0.97
0.92
0.89
0.94
0.97
0.93
0.92
0.92
0.95
0.95

Order book(Cr)
2500
2000
1500

500

2019
2162
1678
1614
1848
1676
1628
1412
1438
1744
1737
1478
1572
1492
1412
1388
1493
1604
1605
1628
1628
1,776
1840

1000

1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17

1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0

Trend of EBITDA , EBIT & PAT Margin(%):


Gross Margin %

EBIDTA %
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%

1QFY12
2QFY12
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
4QFY14
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17

35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%

Narnolia Securities Ltd,


Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Recent management commentaries:


As per the management consumer durables category around 12 percent is sold through the e-commerce portals and
air conditioners was at five percent.
Company has increased market share in room air conditioner business and commercial refrigeration products like
water coolers and deep freezers.
Expected revenue growth 30%
Expected margin will be between 9.5%-10.5%
volume will grow somewhere around 10 %.

Segment wise performance


The Electro-Mechanical Projects and Packaged Air Conditioning Systems business, accounting for 62% of the total
revenues in the quarter, increased by 14% to Rs 559.88 crores from Rs 491.55 crores propelled by Government
infrastructure-related projects. Segment Results registered a marginal increase of 2% to Rs 30.27 crores. Project
execution progress remained slow as customers phase out their requirements based on available capital thereby
deferring overall project completion.
The Unitary Products revenues in the quarter increased by 18% to Rs 291.56 crores, while Segment Results grew 68%
to Rs 21.75 crores over the same period. Enhanced product penetration amongst the existing channels, greater demand
during the onset of the festive season, enhanced product portfolio and deeper penetration contributed to the
growth and profitability in this segment.
The Professional Electronics and Industrial Systems business revenues increased by 25% to Rs 46.38 crores, while
Segment Results registered an increase of 11% to Rs 7.25 crores owing to a few large surveillance projects billed during
the quarter.

Segment wise Revenue(Cr)


Electro Mechanical Projects & Packaged Air-conditioning systems
Cooling Products

376
34 169
396
47 156
481
70 307
342
396
32
374
43 169
349
42 155
355453
60
335 484
26
396
37 205
357
37 196
505
454
46
327 556
25
459
12 246
238 439
9
546
540
18
419
744
11
292 533
9

367
334
31

283 463
67

368

52 164

382
59 157

33

800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
-

342
328

Professional Electronics & Industrial Equipment

Narnolia Securities Ltd,


Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Financials Snap Shot

FY14
8.6
51.2
2.3
0.3

RATIOS
FY15
FY16
6.0
12.1
50.7
73.7
4.7
7.6
0.8
0.6

23.3
3.9
1%

51.1
6.1
2%

28.1
4.6
2%

33.1
7.0
2%

17%
24%

12%
26%

16%
23%

21%
32%

1.3
95.9
81.5
103.2
0.0

1.5
82.3
78.9
101.5
0.1

1.5
80.5
75.6
105.9
0.0

1.6
80.5
70.0
103.5
0.0

INCOME STATEMENT

FY14
Revenue (Net of Excise Duty)2934
Other Income
18
Total Revenue
2952
COGS
2087
GPM
1
Other Expenses
450
EBITDA
150
EBITDA Margin (%)
5%
Depreciation
38
EBIT
113
Interest
54
PBT
76
Tax
2
Tax Rate (%)
3%
Reported PAT
78
Dividend Paid
21
No. of Shares
9

FY15
3182
8
3190
2214
1
533
167
5%
43
124
49
43
-8
-19%
54
42
9

FY16
3770
17
3787
2607
1
600
216
6%
60
156
43
135
27
20%
109
68
9

FY17E
3825
20
3846
2724
1
583
228
6%
53
175
54
141
28
20%
113
68
9

EPS
Book Value
DPS
Payout (incl. Div. Tax.)
Valuation(x)
P/E
Price / Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
Profitability Ratios
RoE
RoCE
Turnover Ratios
Asset Turnover (x)
Debtors (No. of Days)
Inventory (No. of Days)
Creditors (No. of Days)
Net Debt/Equity (x)

Souce: Eastwind/Company
BALANCE SHEET

Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Long term Debt
Short term Debt
Deferred Tax
Total Capital Employed
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Debtors
Cash & Bank Balances
Trade payables
Total Provisions
Net Current Assets
Total Assets

FY14
18
443
461
0
494
2
461
271
1
771
68
830
73
491
2336

FY15
18
438
456
24
373
1
479
279
2
718
44
885
88
311
2175

FY16
18
472
663
18
345
2
681
285
6
831
54
1094
46
417
2590

FY17E
18
517
535
18
315
2
553
295
6
843
3
1085
43
240
2422

FY17E
12.6
59.5
7.6
0.6

Souce: Eastwind/Company

CASH FLOW STATEMENT


FY14
FY15
FY16
FY17E
OP/(Loss) before Tax
76
43
135
141
Depreciation
38
43
60
53
Direct Taxes Paid
-19
-26
-52
-28
Operating profit before working
171capital changes
186
191
248
CF from Op. Activity
67
215
242
180

Capital expenditure on fixed assets


-40 including
-60capital advances
-55
and-63
capital wor
CF from Inv. Activity
11
-49
-44
-77
Repayment of Long Term Borrowings
0
25
0
0
Interest Paid
-54
-50
-43
-54
Divd Paid (incl Tax)
-27
-39
-107
-68
CF from Fin. Activity
-26
-190
-205
-153
Inc/(Dec) in Cash
52
-24
-7
-51
Add: Opening Balance
17
68
44
54
Closing Balance
68
44
54
3

Souce: Eastwind/Company
Souce: Eastwind/Company

Narnolia Securities Ltd,


Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Limited Downside- target- 88/Praj Industries

8-Dec-16

Result Update
CMP

77

Target Price

88

Previous Target Price

14%

Upside
Change from Previous

Market Data
BSE Code

522205

NSE Symbol

PRAJIND
105/70
1,387
51
8143

52wk Range H/L


Mkt Capital (Rs Cr)
Av. Volume ('000)
Nifty

Stock Performance
1Month

3 Month

1Year

Absolute

-11.1

-17.4

-12.7

Rel.to Nifty

-7.6

-8.8

-16.3

Share Holding Pattern-%


2QFY17

1QFY17 4QFY16

Promoters

34%

34%

34%

Public

66%

66%

66%

Higher Crude Price to Support Operational performance


OPEC has come to an agreement to cut supply to support international oil
prices, resulting recent spike in crude oil prices to support company's
operational performance going forward. Company's order book may improve
going forward with higher demand for ethanol blending in India, coupled with
government focus on to curtail oil import by way of higher ethanol blending.
We expect speedy work on IOCs project to set up 2G based Ethanol plant.
After demonetization move, which we believe will not impact business much
as Praj functions in B2B business model and 40% of the revenue comes
from the export business.

Q2FY17 Result Highlights


Total revenue in Q2FY17 is decline by 1.28% YoY to Rs. 206 Cr as against
Rs.210 Cr in Q2FY16. Lower execution of Ethanol segment led to decline in
revenue. Ethanol revenue decline by 10% YoY. Brewery business remain
flattish on YoY and Emerging business grow by 32% YoY.
EBITDA for the Quarter contracted by 40 bps YoY to Rs.6 Cr in Q2FY17
compare to Rs.7 Cr in Q2FY16. Higher employee benefit expenses led to
decline in EBITDA. Company need to make provision of Rs. 2 Cr for the
retire employee benefit. PAT decline due to lower EBITDA to Rs. 3 Cr in
Q2FY17 compare to Rs.5 in Q2FY16.
Order inflow during the quarter de grow by 46% YoY to Rs. 200 Cr as
against Rs. 369 Cr in Q2FY16.
Current order book of the company stand at Rs. 1025 Cr (including Rs.235
cr of Petro bass order)

Outlook and Valuation

Company Vs NIFTY
130

PRAJIND

NIFTY

120
110
100
90

80

Praj reported weak set of the numbers in Q2FY17 but considering the
government emphasis on reducing import bill of oil and produce more
domestically coupled with focus on higher blending in a scenario where crude
prices are going high, may auger well for the company as praj is the
prominent and only Indian company in 2G technology based Boi-Ethanol. We
find this correction healthy and consider it a good entry point around Rs.75
for medium to long term investors. We remain positive with a target price of
Rs. 88
In Rs. Cr

70
60

50
40

Sandip Jabuani

Financials

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17E

Sales
EBITDA
Net Profit
EBIDTA M%
PAT M%

919
85
68
9.2%
7%

986
78
55
8.0%
6%

1012
93
76
9.2%
8%

1016
111
70
10.9%
7%

963
63
45
8.4%
6%

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

sandip.jabuani@narnolia.com
Narnolia Securities Ltd,

Key take way from Concall / Managment Interviwe


Praj selected as technology supplier by IOC (Indian Oil Corporation) and signed MoU for the setting up three 2G technology
based Boi- Ethanol plant.
Each plant requires 550-600 Cr of capital investment. Main portion will invest by OMCs and government.
Praj need to invest around 7-12% of equity in 2G Ethanol plant
Management is in talk with new contractor to resume Petro bass order. More clear view by calendar year end.
Tax rate for FY17:- 30%

Order Book and Order Inflow growth


Order Book

Order Inflow Growth (YoY%)

1400
1200

1000

100%
92%

990

1050

875

820

800

730

600

1147
1010

1115

980

1025

24%

40%

34%

20%

21%

0%

10%

-20%

-11%
-31%

60%
40%

730

400
200

1030
73%

960

80%

-40%

-32%

-34%

-46%

-47%

-60%

Segment Order Book and Order Intake (Order Intake is Rs.200 Cr in Q2FY17)

2QFY17

2QFY17 (Order Intake)


Ethanol
30%

Brewery

40%

Emerging

51%
62%

8%

9%

Segment Revenue
Ethanol

250

Brewery

Emerging

227

200

217
183

180
159

150

134

91

100

73

66
49

52

50
8

16

106

31

117

105

80
69

104

116

130

127
84

66
48

43

44
33

50
23

23

117

72
40

55
23

66
23

2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17

Narnolia Securities Ltd,


Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Financials Snap Shot

RATIOS
FY14
FY15
3.1
4.3
32.8
35.1
2.6
1.9
84%
44%

FY16
3.9
37.3
1.9
48%

9.5
1.1
5%

17.0
1.6
5%

14.5
1.8
3%

22.7
2.4
2%

12%
11%

9%
9%

12%
9%

11%
11%

0.7
125
69
94
0.0

0.8
119
93
74
0.0

0.8
101
70
64
0.0

0.9
132
79
74
0.0

INCOME STATEMENT

FY13
Revenue (Net of Excise Duty)919
Other Income
31
Total Revenue
950
COGS
507
GPM
1
Other Expenses
214
EBITDA
85
EBITDA Margin (%)
9%
Depreciation
22
EBIT
63
Interest
2
PBT
92
Tax
21
Tax Rate (%)
23%
Reported PAT
68
Dividend Paid
34
No. of Shares
18

FY14
986
24
1010
479
0
304
78
8%
24
55
1
77
20
27%
55
46
18

FY15
1012
34
1046
506
1
280
93
9%
38
55
2
86
8
9%
76
34
18

FY16
1016
15
1030
467
0
287
111
11%
34
77
1
90
20
23%
70
34
18

EPS
Book Value
DPS
Payout (incl. Div. Tax.)
Valuation(x)
P/E
Price / Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
Profitability Ratios
RoE
RoCE
Turnover Ratios
Asset Turnover (x)
Debtors (No. of Days)
Inventory (No. of Days)
Creditors (No. of Days)
Net Debt/Equity (x)

Souce: Eastwind/Company

Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Long term Debt
Short term Debt
Deferred Tax
Total Capital Employed
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Debtors
Cash & Bank Balances
Trade payables
Total Provisions
Net Current Assets
Total Assets

FY13
35
535
571
0
14
10
571
250
48
316
75
238
189
298
1246

FY14
35
547
583
0
21
9
583
268
2
320
57
200
212
291
1276

FY15
35
587
622
0
17
1
622
241
1
280
100
177
133
337
1216

FY16
36
626
661
0
16
0
661
223
1
367
82
207
29
345
1162

FY13
3.8
32.1
1.9
49%

Souce: Eastwind/Company

FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
OP/(Loss) before Tax
92
77
86
90
Depreciation
22
24
38
34
Direct Taxes Paid
48
28
9
36
Operating profit before working
94capital changes
95
113
127
CF from Op. Activity
28
(3)
150
52
13
20
21
36
Capital expenditure on fixed assets
53 including
39 capital advances
16
and13
capital wor
CF from Inv. Activity
26
18
(80)
(1)
Repayment of Long Term Borrowings
0
0
0
0
Interest Paid
2
1
2
1
Divd Paid (incl Tax)
33
46
34
69
CF from Fin. Activity
(58)
(40)
(40)
(68)
Inc/(Dec) in Cash
(5)
(25)
29
(18)
Add: Opening Balance
72
68
44
76
Closing Balance
68
44
76
62

Souce: Eastwind/Company
Souce: Eastwind/Company

Narnolia Securities Ltd,


Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Lauras Labs Ltd

"SUBSCRIBE"
7th Dec 2016

IPO Note
Issue Detail

Company Overview

Type
Issue Size

100% Book Building


Rs. 1350 Crore

Offer Price

*Rs (426 - 428)/Equity Share

Min App Size

35 Shares

Issue Open

6-Dec-16

Issue Close
Shares Offer
Face Value
Lead Mgrs

8-Dec-16
3.115
Rs 10
Citigroup Global Markets India
Pvt Ltd, Jefferies India Pvt Ltd ,
Kotak Mahindra Capital
Company Ltd.

Listing
Registrar

NSE,BSE

Laurus Labs Ltd was incorporated in 2005 which is Hyderabad based pharmaceutical company.
Laurus Labs is in the business of manufacturing generic active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs)
for therapeutic areas of antiretrovirals (ARVs) and Hepatitis C. Company also manufacture APIs in
oncology and other therapeutic areas.
Company operate in four buisness : Generics - APIs , Generics - FDFs , Synthesis and Ingredients.
Generics -API business comprises the development , manufacture and sale of APIs and advanced
intermediates . Generics FDF business comprises the development and manufacturing oral solid
formulation. Synthesis business includes contact development and manufacturing services for
global pharmaceutical companies . Ingredients business comprises the manufacture & sale of
speciality ingredients for use in the nutraceutical and cosmeceutical sectors. Company has lunched
59 products . company's key customers Asper pharmacare Ltd , Auropharma , Cipla , Mylan , Natco
, Strides shasun Ltd . Company owned 32 patents and had 150 pending patent application in
several countries . Company has three manufaturing facilities in visakhapatnam , andhra Pradesh.
Company sells its products in 32 countries in sub saharan africa , south east asis and Latin America.

Karvy Computershare Pvt Ltd

Market Cap
(Post Issue)

4527.8

No of shares ( Post & Pre Issue)


No of Shares (Pre Issue)
Offer for Sale

98,746,904
24,107,440

Fresh Issue made


No of Shares (Post Issue)

7042253
105789157

Bid allocation pattern

Company Strategies
> Company is a leading developer and manufacturer of generics APIs in select , high- growth
therapeutics areas of ARV and Hepatitis C.
> Company has strong R&D capabilities & process chemistry skills . Company is focused on
undertaking dedicated R&D in existing products where company believe there is significant growth
potential.
> Copany has maintained long standing relationship with multi national pharmaceutical companies
. Company cumulative revenue from such customers has grown year over year for the last three
financial years.
> Company experienced Promoters and Qualified Operational Personnel

Risk

QIB

50%

Non-Institutional

15%

Retail

35%

> Any manufacturing or quality control problems may subject us to regulatory action, damage our
reputation and have an adverse effect on business, results of operations, financial condition and
cash flows.
> Company derive a significant portion of revenue from a few customers, most of whom
Company do not have long term contractual arrangements with, and the loss of one or more such
customers, the deterioration of their financial condition or prospects, or a reduction in their
demand for our products could adversely affect business, results of operations, financial condition
and cash flows

Objects of the Issue:


Particulars
Pre-payment of term loans
General corporate purposes.

Recommendation
Company strategic and early investments in R&D and manufacturing infrastructure has enabled to become one of the leading suppliers of
APIs in the ARV therapeutic area to reap long term benefits on account of a robust business model, healthy balance sheet, strong business
prospects in terms of multiple levers in place for growth and ability of the management to leverage its capabilities in a bid to cultivate its
business.
At the higher end of the price band of Rs 428, the IPO is valued at 12.6x EV/EBITDA and 34.1x P/E on FY16 basis. We believe the company is
being offered at upper band of its valuations. We maintain "SUBSCRIBE" on this IPO.

Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Lauras Labs Ltd


Financials
Yearly Profit & Loss Account (Consolidated Figure)

Figure in Rs (Crore)

30th Sept
2016
Total Income
EBITDA
PAT
EBITDA Margin
PAT Margin
No of Shares
Post Issue Diluted EPS
Price
P/E( At upper price band)
P/E( At lower price band)
EV/EBITDA( At upper price band), X
EV/EBITDA( At lower price band), X
ROE %

31 March
2016

31 March
2015

31 March
2014

942
209
75
22%
8%
10.57
14.21

1,791
380
133
21%
7%
10.57
12.55

1,361
234
68
17%
5%
10.57
6.47

1,169
218
97
19%
8%
10.57
9.20

Rs 426 - 428
34.1
33.9
12.85
12.80
16%

15.6%

9.5%

27.1%
Figure in Rs (Crore)

Balance Sheet
30th Sept
2016

31 March
2016

31 March
2015

31 March
2014

EQUITY AND LIABILITIES


Share capital
Reserves and surplus

830

82
769

82
640

78
281

Shareholders' funds

929

852

722

358

283
576

461
481

304
432

188
312

859

942

735

500

60
8
38

45

10
5
45

12

Long-term borrowings

Short-term borrowings

Total Borrowing
Deferred tax liability (net)
Long-term provisions
Other Long Term Liabilities

Non - current liabilities

99

7
44

4
0

106

96

60

16

308
354
25

249
145
20

231
133
7

227
164
7

687
2581

413
2303

371
1888

399
1273

Long-term loans and advances


Non current investment
Other non-current assets

1276
152
6
13.74

1155
129
7
9.06

911
94
7
13.97

615
69
0
14.53

Non-current assets

1447

1300

1026

698

521
533
14
39
26

487
445
28
30
13

475
285
59
31
12

328
195
23
25
4

1134
2581

1003
2303

862
1888

575
1273

Trade payables
Other current liabilities
Short-term provisions

Current liabilities
TOTAL Liabilities
Fixed assets

Inventory
Trade receivables
Cash and bank balances
Short-term loans and advances
Other Current Assets

Current assets
Total

Buy

OIL AND NATURAL GAS CORPORATION LTD.


Company Update
CMP

298

Target Price

365

Previous Target Price


Upside

22%

Change from Previous

Market Data
BSE Code

500312

NSE Symbol

ONGC
299/187
254953
427
8163

52wk Range H/L


Mkt Capital (Rs Cr)
Av. Volume(,000)
Nifty

Stock Performance
1M

7-Dec-16

ONGC has posted revenue of Rs.18395 Cr in 2QFY17 as compared to


Rs.20512 Cr in 2QFY16 (de-growth of 10% on YoY). This de-growth was
led by unfavorable international crude oil prices till Nov.2016 but now we
expect turn around in the crude oil prices due to the decision taken by the
OPEC on 2nd Dec 2016 to cut down crude production by 1.2 million barrels
per day (bpd) to 32.5 million barrels per day for the first time in eight years .
According to management, every 1USD increase in the crude price will help
the company to generate additional revenue of Rs.1000 Cr and PAT of Rs
425 Cr on the yearly basis. At the same time the company is on the track to
achieve its planned production volumes of 25.73 metric tonnes for FY17.
Q2FY17_Result Update

Profit after tax for 2QFY17 stands at Rs. 4976 Cr as compared to Rs.
4681 Cr in the same quarter of FY16.
Crude oil production in 2QFY17 is 6.392MMMT (de-growth of 2% on YoY).

3M

12M

Gas production in 2QFY17 is 5.807BCM as compared to 5.702 BCM in


2QFY116(increase of 1.84% on YoY)

Absolute

10.5

25.4

43.0

15 oil and gas discoveries notified till 2QFY17

Rel.to Nifty

14.8

23.3

34.6

EBITDA margin of the company has improved by 630bps to 49.5% in


2QFY17
LPG volume has increased from 0.29 MMT to 0.36 MMT in 2QFY17

Share Holding Pattern-%


2QFY17

Promoters
Public
Others
Total

1QFY17 4QFY16

68.93
31.07

68.93
31.07

68.93
31.07

100

100

100

Company Vs NIFTY
140

ONGC

NIFTY

130
120

Outlook and Valuation

ONGC is likely to achieve its annual target of 5.87MT crude production in


FY17. The company has already crossed its daily production target of
16200 tonnes per day as compared to 15300 tonnes in Aug 2015. Recent
upsurge in the crude oil prices will make onshore production viable. The
management has also guided that no subsidy has been decided by the
government in FY17, thus benefits of higher crude would flow into the
company. Considering above arguments we recommend BUY on this
stock with a target price of Rs. 365.

110
100

Financials

2012

2013

2014

2015

90

Sales
EBITDA
Net Profit
EPS
P/E

147285
48491
28144
33
8.2

162403
43499
24220
28
11.0

174477
49725
26507
31
10.3

160890
42301
18334
21
14.3

Oct-16

Nov-16

Sep-16

Jul-16

Aug-16

Jun-16

Apr-16

May-16

Mar-16

Jan-16

Feb-16

Dec-15

Nov-15

80

Aditya Gupta

Rs,Cr
2016
131517
41261
14123
17
13.2

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

aditya.gupta@narnolia.com
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

11

Management Speak/ Key take aways From Management Interview


ONGc has notified 7 more discoveries since last press release on 7th September,2O16.
ONGC to begin oil production from Ratna R-Series field in 2019.Production form the fields is targeted to start in 2019
with an output of 10,000 barrels per day

ONGC will invest USD 20 billion in next 5-7 years primarily in deepwater fields to augment gas production
Management is confident of volumes improving on back of project implementation
Subsidy

Subsidy Burden
16202
13796 13764

12622

13200

Government has decided


no subsidy for FY17, and
benefits will flow to the
company

13641
9458

1096

Operational Highlights

Volume Trend
Crude Oil (MMT)
7.0

6.5
6.2

6.0

6.5
6.2

6.5
6.3

6.5
6.2

6.4
6.0

6.4
5.7

6.6
6.0

Gas (BCM)
6.5
5.8

6.5
5.8

6.6
5.8

6.5
5.8

6.3
5.8

6.3
5.5

6.4
5.5

5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
-

About the Company

Business Segment Overview

ONGC is Indias largest national oil & gas company, primarily


engaged in the exploration, development and production of crude
oil and natural gas in both India and abroad. ONGC, through its
wholly owned subsidiary ONGC Videsh Ltd, has presence across
14 countries in E&P activities. The company is also present in
downstream refining and marketing operations in India through its
subsidiary MRPL, which operates
a refinery with an installed
capacity of 15 MMTPA.ONGC dominates Indias oil & gas
production with more than two third share of the countrys
production of oil and oil equivalent gas. It contributes ~78% and
~73% to total oil and gas production, respectively, in India. ONGC
has 969 mmtoe of proved reserves and 1451 mmtoe of 2P
reserves at FY13 end. Its total domestic production for FY13
aggregated 51.5 mmtoe.

Narnolia Securities Ltd,


Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

12

FY13
Revenue (Net of Excise Duty)
162,403
Other Income
5,491
Total Revenue
167,893
COGS
(1,120)
GPM
-1%
Other Expenses
106,755
EBITDA
43,499
EBITDA Margin (%)
27%
Depreciation
11,763
EBIT
31,735
Interest
484
PBT
36,742
Tax
12,752
Tax Rate (%)
35%
Reported PAT
24,220
Dividend Paid
9,509
No. of Shares
856

Financials Snap Shot


INCOME STATEMENT
FY14
FY15
FY16
FY13
174,477 161,212
131,498 EPS
28
6,894
5,925
7,023 Book Value
178
181,371 167,137
138,521 DPS
11
(719)
1,723
725 Payout (incl. Div. Tax.)
39%
0%
1%
1% Valuation(x)
116,169 104,795
82,414 P/E
11
49,725
42,342
42,051 Price / Book Value
2
28%
26%
32% Dividend Yield (%)
4%
16,581
18,033
18,009 Profitability Ratios
33,144
24,309
24,042 RoE
16%
624
2,864
2,157 RoCE
20%
39,413
27,370
22,718 Turnover Ratios
12,760
9,697
8,417 Asset Turnover (x)
0.64
32%
35%
37% Debtors (No. of Days)
35
26,507
18,334
14,124 Inventory (No. of Days)
29
9,509
9,259
5,756 Creditors (No. of Days)
42
856
856
856 Net Debt/Equity (x)
0
Souce: Eastwind/Company

FY13
Share Capital
4,278
Reserves and surplus
148,250
Shareholders' funds
152,528
Long term Debt
8,843
Total Borrowings
11,527
Non Current liabilities
14,849
Long term provisions
161370
Short term Provisions
164,703
Current liabilities
39,745
Total liabilities
15,396
Net Fixed Assets
19,619
Non Current Investments 18,615
Other non Current assets 26,350
Current assets
27,400
Total Assets
253,461

BALANCE SHEET
FY14
FY15
4,278
4,278
167,873 176,177
172,151 180,454
31,681
47,575
13,907
5,345
18,552
19,357
203832
228030
209,603 223,186
53,827
32,660
16,028
18,816
24,480
16,097
30,678
30,466
31,357
35,039
19,941
20,191
324,911 338,292

FY16
4,278
180,467
184,744
46,272
7,321
21,547
231016
236,529
32,508
9,687
25,784
33,886
40,937
15,227
356,211

RATIOS
FY14
FY15
31
21
201
211
11
11
36%
51%

FY16
17
216
7
41%

10
2
3%

14
1
4%

13
1
3%

15%
16%

10%
11%

8%
10%

0.54
34
31
64
0

0.48
43
24
69
0

0.37
27
28
94
0

Souce: Eastwind/Company

CASH FLOW STATEMENT


FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16
OP/(Loss) before Tax
36,742
39,413
27,370
22,718
Depreciation
12,094
16,581
18,033
18,009
Direct Taxes Paid
12,416
10,567
9,029
7,626
Operating profit before working
58,306 capital
59,570
changes54,535
46,960
CF from Op. Activity
39,874
53,270
33,950
52,777
Proceeds from sale of Current
(83)
investments
Capital expenditure on fixed
(17,961)
assets (14,939)
including capital
(16,906)
advances
(11,324)
and capi
CF from Inv. Activity
(41,220) (63,633) (30,320) (37,977)
Repayment of Long Term10,432
Borrowings33,199
17,078
5,522
Interest Paid
(687)
(709) (1,199)
(1,466)
Divd Paid (incl Tax)
11,002
9,762
9,495
5,920
CF from Fin. Activity
(6,927)
15,225 (10,641)
(6,223)
Inc/(Dec) in Cash
(8,273)
4,862
(7,010)
8,578
Add: Opening Balance 27,874
19,601
12,727
5,720
Closing Balance
19,601
24,463
5,717
14,298

Souce: Eastwind/Company

Narnolia Securities Ltd,


Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Souce: Eastwind/Company

13

NEUTRAL
Eicher Motors Limited

6-Dec-16

Result Update
CMP

22742

Target Price

26000

Previous Target Price


Upside

14%

Change from Previous

Market Data
BSE Code

505200

NSE Symbol

EICHERMOT

52wk Range H/L

26602/14818

Mkt Capital (Rs Cr)

61,855

Av. Volume

7067

Nifty

8087

Stock Performance
1Month

1Year

YTD

Absolute

-7.6

38.9

34.7

Rel.to Nifty

-2.9

36.9

32.9

Promoter
Public
Others
Total

Gross Margin increased by 460 bps YoY to 48.1% majorly due to better
product mix and lower commodity cost.

4QFY16

50.6

50.7

54.9

49.4
-100.0

49.3
-100.0

45.1
-100.0

Company Vs NIFTY
160

EICHERMOT

2QFY17 Result Update


Revenue grew by 35% YoY to Rs.1755 crore in 1QFY17. The motorcycle
sales grew by 31%YoY and the commercial vehicle segment grew by 15%
YoY.

Share Holding Pattern-%


2QFY17 1QFY17

Eicher Motors have reported Rs.1755 crore of revenue, a growth of 35% YoY
in 2QFY17. The motorcycle volumes clocked 33% growth YoY in 2QFY17 on
account of higher RE Classic 350 sales. The realization also improved by
3% YoY, because of price hike during the quarter. The waiting period for
Classic350' models remain 3 months and for other models it is 14-15 days.
The company has scaled up the capacity to 675000 units in FY17, looking at
the growing demand for premium motorcycles. On commencement of Vallam
Vadagal facility the total production capacity will reach to 900000 units in
FY19.This facility will commence production in 3 phases starting from
2QFY18. Market share in top-20 cities in the premium segment stands at
20%. The commercial Vehicle segment reported sales of 3176 units, a
degrowth of 13% YoY. The demand from fleet owners may remain sluggish
due to the cash crunch in the economy. CV segment market share has
improved from 11% to 13% in the current fiscal. The management has stated
that the business outlook continues to be strong in the long run for both RE
and VECV.

NIFTY

150
140
130

EBITDA Margin expanded by 390 bps YoY to 30.9% driven by benefit of


operating leverage. PAT Margin expanded by 170 bps YoY to 23.5%.

Outlook and Valuation


Going forward, we expect capacity addition in line with demand(RE),
seventh pay commission payout, expectation of pre-buying on new emission
norms and improving infrastructure activities in the country may be next
growth drivers for the company. But in the near term we see some stress in
demand due to demonetisation and see some tapering of growth due to
higher base in previous year. Presently, we are 'Neutral' on this stock
considering lateset demonetisation and confusion regarding the demand
scenario, with a target price of Rs. 26000. Earlier, we recommended 'BUY' on
this stock at Rs.19753, and 'Booked Profit' at Rs.24777, an upside of 25%.

120

Rs. In crore

110
100

Financials

2QFY17

1QFY17

2QFY16

QoQ

YoY

90

Sales
EBITDA
Net Profit
EBIDTA%
PAT %

1755
542
413
31%
24%

1556
470
376
30%
24%

1300
351
285
27%
22%

13%
15%
10%

35%
55%
45%

Oct-16

Nov-16

Sep-16

Aug-16

Jul-16

Jun-16

Apr-16

May-16

Mar-16

Jan-16

Feb-16

Dec-15

Nov-15

80

Naveen Kumar Dubey


naveen.dubey@narnolia.com

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

14

EICHERMOT
Investment Argument
>> The user segment has changed drastically for RE and 90% of the customers have bought these bikes for daily use. The
penetration in the premium segment is very low, so we assume that there is a lot of potential exist for Royal Enfield going ahead.
>> Royal Enfield's R&D centre in the UK is developing a 600-650cc twin-cylinder motorcycle, designed to serve cruiser riders of the
US and Europe. The bike is likely to be launched next year.
>> RE has expanded its footprint in the exports by opening up stores in the various export markets like; Latin America, Paris,
London, indonesia, bangkok and Madrid.
>> On the commercial vehicle front, the transportation sector has been affected mostly by the cash crunch and monthly run-rate
would be 10-20% lower in second half than the first of the current fiscal. We anticipate that this could be deferral of sales only in
near term, because around 80-85 percent commercial vehicles are financed.

Management Highlight
>> Management said that the out look for RE is strong backed by healthy order book.
>> CV space looks challenging going ahead due to cash cruch in the economy.
>> Higher growth potential international markets are Latin America and South East Asia.
>> Production is 50000 units per month and average waiting period is 3 months for classic models.
>> Currently RE dealer count is 500 and it will reach more than 600 by FY17.
>> Capex is Rs.600 crore for RE and Rs.400 crore for VECV towards setting up technical centers and capacity enhancement.
>> Multix- Plant in Jaipur, produced 650 units till december 2015. Target customers for Multix are Independent businessmen.
>> No plans for setting up plants in overseas market in near future.
>> The company plans to increase its capacity in the Pithampur facility from 5500 to 7500 units per month going forward.

About The Company


Incorporated in 1982, Eicher Motors Limited is the flagship company of the Eicher Group in India and a leading player of the Indian
automobile industry. The company is mainly engaged in the business of high end motorcycles (350cc & above) under the brand 'Royal
Enfield' and Commercial Vehicles business segment under 'Volvo Eicher Commercial Vehicles'.

EML Business Details

Eicher Motors Ltd.


(EML)

Eicher Polaris (50%)

Royal Enfield
(100%)

VECV (54.4%)

Key Risks
>> Company have plans to increase its capacity to 9 Lakh units per annum by the end of 2018. Rise in demand may increase the
waiting period for the bikes in short term, which is 3-4 months.
>> In the US market the company can face stiff competition from Harley Davidson.
>> Bajaj Auto's Avenger can be potential threat for Royal Enfield in Indian market.
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

15

EICHERMOT
Financials Snap Shot

CY13
146
760
35
24%

RATIOS
CY14
FY16
227
470
928
1275
59
117
26%
25%

FY17
581
1715
145
25%

34
7
0.7%

66
16
0.4%

41
15
0.6%

43
15
0.6%

19%
27%

24%
36%

37%
58%

34%
42%

1.3
27
41
64
0.04

1.4
23
41
63
0.00

1.9
19
37
58
0.00

0.9
19
37
58
0.00

INCOME STATEMENT

CY13
Revenue (Net of Excise Duty)6810
Other Income
95
Total Revenue
6905
COGS
4639
GPM
32%
Other Expenses
925
EBITDA
713
EBITDA Margin (%)
10%
Depreciation
130
EBIT
583
Interest
8
PBT
671
Tax
145
Tax Rate (%)
22%
Reported PAT
394
Dividend Paid
95
No. of Shares
3

CY14
8738
107
8846
5766
34%
1198
1115
13%
220
895
10
993
291
29%
615
159
3

FY16
15689
112
15801
10121
35%
2063
2447
16%
452
1996
9
2099
647
31%
1278
318
3

FY17
6778
203
6981
3561
47%
746
2082
31%
147
1935
3
2135
657
31%
1575
392
3

EPS
Book Value
DPS
Payout (incl. Div. Tax.)
Valuation(x)
P/E
Price / Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
Profitability Ratios
RoE
RoCE
Turnover Ratios
Asset Turnover (x)
Debtors (No. of Days)
Inventory (No. of Days)
Creditors (No. of Days)
Net Debt/Equity (x)

Souce: Eastwind/Company

Souce: Eastwind/Company

BALANCE SHEET

Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Long term Debt
Short term Debt
Deferred Tax
Total Capital Employed
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Debtors
Cash & Bank Balances
Trade payables
Total Provisions
Net Current Assets
Total Assets

CY13
27
2028
2055
84
84
180
2139
2120
125
513
683
1191
170
1008
5337

CY14
27
2489
2516
0
58
239
2516
2728
236
562
380
1513
265
614
6408

FY16
27
3437
3464
0
86
338
3464
3314
118
834
476
2509
99
353
8479

CASH FLOW

FY17
27
4620
4648
0
37
338
4648
3724
118
360
596
1084
52
813
7663

CY13
CY14
FY16
FY17
OP/(Loss) before Tax
671
993
2099
2135
Depreciation
130
220
452
147
Direct Taxes Paid
(150)
(281)
(634)
(657)
Operating profit before working
718capital changes
1126
2460
2285
CF from Op. Activity
716
1047
2282
656
0
(150)
(869)
0
Capital expenditure on fixed assets
(712) including
(972)capital (1070)
advances and
(558)
capital wor
CF from Inv. Activity
(790)
(1087)
(1481)
(593)
Repayment of Long Term Borrowings
(1)
0
0
0
Interest Paid
(8)
(10)
(9)
(3)
Divd Paid (incl Tax)
(88)
(115)
(486)
(335)
CF from Fin. Activity
(47)
(162)
(563)
(444)
Inc/(Dec) in Cash
(121)
(202)
238
(380)
Add: Opening Balance
804
683
353
591
Closing Balance
683
481
591
211

Souce: Eastwind/Company

Narnolia Securities Ltd,


Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Souce: Eastwind/Company

16

BUY
SADBHAV ENG.

2-Dec-16

Result Update
CMP

277

Target Price

315

Previous Target Price

Upside

14%

Change from Previous

Market Data
BSE Code

532710

NSE Symbol

SADBHAV
369/198
4,753
4923
8087

52wk Range H/L


Mkt Capital (Rs Cr)
Av. Volume
Nifty

Stock Performance
1Month

3 Month

1Year

Absolute

3.1

-4.3

-21.9

Rel.to Nifty

8.1

3.9

-23.5

Share Holding Pattern-%


4QFY16

3QFY16 4QFY15

Promoters

47%

47%

47%

Public

53%

53%

53%

Sadbhav reported subdued numbers for the Q2FY17 due to heavy monsoon
and project related issues. The company suffered Rs. 70 Cr of revenue loss
on Irrigation project in MP on account of heavy monsoon,Rs.30 Cr of
revenue loss on two road project in Karnataka due to Kaveri Water dispute
and around Rs. 35 Cr of revenue loss in BCCL (Mining) project because of
service tax related issues. Top line de grew by the 17.5% YoY to Rs. 616 Cr
as compared to Rs. 746 Cr in 2QFY16. EBITDA for the quarter stood at Rs.
65 Cr as against Rs. 81 Cr in 2QFY16, 19% down YoY with similar margin.
PAT de grew by 33% YoY to Rs. 19 Cr vs Rs.28 Cr in same period last year.
Higher 80 IA benefit led to NIL effective tax rate for the quarter and it will be
continue for the next 3 quarters based on higher revenue contribution from
road EPC and irrigation projects. Current order book stands at Rs. 9363 Cr
(including Orders won after September) which provides strong revenue
visibility going forward.

Highway & Road drives the revenue growth:Currently 5 EPC projects are under execution and another 4 HAM project will
come under execution by January. 4 out of 5 projects have achieved financial
closure and expecting to get appointment date by January, 2017. The
company has already started working on these projects before getting
appointment date and expects to book Rs.300 Cr (approx.) revenue in
Q4FY17.Irrigation projects in MP lost one and half month due to heavy
monsoon but now all the projects are on track and management is confident
to complete it quickly. Blocked working capital will be released and it will be
used to fund working capital requirements on ongoing EPC projects.
Management is in talk with BCCL to settle down services tax issues in mining
and expects Rs. 350 Cr of annual revenue from mining. EPC (Road &
Irrigation) dominated revenue in H2FY17 will boost the bottom line by way of
80 IA tax benefit.

Outlook and Valuation

Company Vs NIFTY
120

SADBHAV

NIFTY

110
100

90
80

Though the execution in Q2FY17 was slow due to heavy monsoon, we


expect full fledged execution in H2FY17 will help SADBHAV to register
robust revenue growth. Reduced working capital from Irrigation project and
repayment of loan from SIPL will strengthen companys balance sheet
position. SADBHAV is better placed to grab opportunities from upcoming
government spending to boost infrastructure. We are keeping our positive
stance on stock. We maintain Buy rating for a target price of 315/-

70

In Rs. Cr

60
50
40

Sandip Jabuani

Financials

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

FY17E

Sales
EBITDA
Net Profit
EBIDTA%
P/E

2160
394
7
18.2%
313.2

2733
436
44
15.9%
53.1

3447
580
-175
16.8%
-15.2

3878
803
-47
20.7%
-56.9

4487
929
67
20.7%
75.1

(Source: Company/Eastwind)

sandip.jabuani@narnolia.com
Narnolia Securities Ltd,

17

Demonetization impact on execution: NOT A MATERIAL ONE


Demonetization will not have any material impact on Sadbhavs standalone working is concerned. In concall, management has
clarified that from the raw material procurement to wages of labour and other related expense are channelized directly through
banking system. Though this currency clean up drive will surely have impact on different economic activities with different degree in
near term moving forward, management has indicated that Sadbhavs BOT business will not be spared from this, as traffic growth
may hamper.

Concall Update : Current Order stands at 9363 Cr (3128 Cr received after September)
Maintain Order intake of Rs. 5000-7000 Cr in FY17
Revenue loss of Rs.100 Cr due to heavy monsoon and 30 Cr on BCCL services tax issue
Growth will led by highway & construction segment for the next 2-3 years
Debtors will come down (1000 cr approx. on standalone books)as the money release from EPC project
Loan outstanding to SIPL is Rs. 280 cr and mgmt expecting to come down below 100 Cr
Rs. 320 Cr of mobilization advance on HAM project yet to receive
Achieved financial closure of 4 HAM projects and expect to get appointment date in December and commencement of work in
January.
Maintain revenue guidance of Rs. 3600-3700 Cr for FY17
Services tax issue at BCCL project will settle down by December.
No impact of demonetization on execution of the project
Tax rate will be NIL for next 3 quarter because of higher revenue from road EPC project. (all EPC project is eligible for 80 IA
benefit)

Segmental Order Book


BOT

EPC

Irrigation

Minning

10,000
9,000
2,153

8,000

7,000

2,269

2,724

2,728

2,273

2,392

5,000
4,000
3,000

2,000
1,000

1,872
1,345
2,851

1,919

2,226

1,136
2,567

2QFY15

2,015

3,021

4,430

1,442

1,902

1,276

1,836
1,187

1,097

1,982

2,193

1,811

1,404

990

573

233

174

156

3QFY15

4QFY15

1QFY16

2QFY16

3QFY16

4QFY16

1QFY17

2QFY17

Order book

9,500

1,975
1,644

1,749

1QFY15

2,061
1,733

6,000

3,995

3,837

3,477

3,054

Book to Bill

3.79

4.00
3.50

9,000
8,941

2.76

8,000

3.00

2.35

8,500

2.50

2.00

8,200

Maintain order Intake guidence of


Rs. 5000-7000 Cr

1.50

7,500
7,487
7,000

1.00
0.50

6,500

FY14

FY15

FY16

Narnolia Securities Ltd,


Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

18

Segmental Revenue
BOT

EPC

Irrigation

Minning

Power Generation

1,200
1,000

800

600

1
68

400
200

138
72

35
147

199

100

31
132

100
132

461

428

204

168

160

407

424

402
111

33

1QFY17

2QFY17

1QFY15

2QFY15

2
90

449
470

374

300

280

201

189

166

3QFY15

4QFY15

1QFY16

2QFY16

3QFY16

4QFY16

Toll Collection

Toll Collection
250

200
150

155

139

139

147

1QFY15

2QFY15

3QFY15

165

162

1QFY16

2QFY16

200

208

214

4QFY16

1QFY17

2QFY17

Managment Expecting
toll revenue will grow
25-30% CAGR

173

100
50
-

4QFY15

3QFY16

EBITDA

EBITDA M

120

11%
11%

100

11%

11%

11%

11%

10%

80

10%

10%

10%

60

11%

10%
10%

9%

40

9%

20
72

60

78

96

89

81

74

81

87

65

9%

1QFY15

2QFY15

3QFY15

4QFY15

1QFY16

2QFY16

3QFY16

4QFY16

Narnolia Securities Ltd,


Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

1QFY17

2QFY17

19

Financials Snap Shot

FY14
2.9
82.4
0.7
24%

RATIOS
FY15
FY16
-10.2
-2.7
89.6
104.8
0.8
0.8
-8%
-30%

FY17E
3.9
107.9
0.8
21%

53.1
1.9
0.45%

-15.2
1.7
0.53%

-56.9
1.5
0.53%

75.1
2.7
0.28%

4%
5%

-11%
4%

-3%
5%

4%
6%

0.3
76.9
29.0
51.8
3.88

0.3
72.4
30.2
50.1
4.07

0.2
77.4
18.9
37.5
4.49

0.3
77.0
18.9
38.0
4.25

INCOME STATEMENT

FY14
Revenue (Net of Excise Duty)2733
Other Income
30
Total Revenue
2762
COGS
2064
GPM
1
Other Expenses
153
EBITDA
436
EBITDA Margin (%)
16%
Depreciation
127
EBIT
309
Interest
449
PBT
-110
Tax
-14
Tax Rate (%)
13%
Reported PAT
44
Dividend Paid
11
No. of Shares
15

FY15
3447
44
3491
2576
1
164
580
17%
219
361
615
-210
34
-16%
-175
14
17

FY16
3878
45
3922
2730
1
192
803
21%
287
516
726
-165
17
-10%
-47
14
17

FY17E
4487
45
4532
0
0
0
929
21%
304
625
581
89
21
24%
67
0
0

EPS
Book Value
DPS
Payout (incl. Div. Tax.)
Valuation(x)
P/E
Price / Book Value
Dividend Yield (%)
Profitability Ratios
RoE
RoCE
Turnover Ratios
Asset Turnover (x)
Debtors (No. of Days)
Inventory (No. of Days)
Creditors (No. of Days)
Net Debt/Equity (x)

Souce: Eastwind/Company

Share Capital
Reserves
Net Worth
Long term Debt
Short term Debt
Deferred Tax
Total Capital Employed
Net Fixed Assets
Capital WIP
Debtors
Cash & Bank Balances
Trade payables
Total Provisions
Net Current Assets
Total Assets

FY14
15
1235
1250
4848
468
36
6098
6007
1
576
128
388
174
548
7871

FY15
17
1520
1537
6256
411
24
7793
9598
1
684
205
473
271
760
11933

FY16
17
1781
1798
8069
601
23
9867
13527
0
822
126
399
357
477
15809

FY17E
17
1848
1865
7869
601
23
9734
11805
1
951
0
461
332
435
14132

Souce: Eastwind/Company

FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
OP/(Loss) before Tax
26
-233
-165
89
Depreciation
130
223
287
304
Direct Taxes Paid
56
68
17
21
Operating profit before working
469capital changes
596
890
974
CF from Op. Activity
786
385
2130
657
0
0
20
0
Capital expenditure on fixed assets
225 including
158capital advances
7300
and
1417
capital wor
CF from Inv. Activity
(1441)
(1357)
9330
1417
Repayment of Long Term Borrowings
0
0
0
0
Interest Paid
455
615
726
581
Divd Paid (incl Tax)
11
13
14
0
CF from Fin. Activity
706
1037
1580
(781)
Inc/(Dec) in Cash
52
64
13041
1294
Add: Opening Balance
58
110
205
126
Closing Balance
110
174
13245
1420

Souce: Eastwind/Company
Souce: Eastwind/Company

Narnolia Securities Ltd,


Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

20

BUY
BANK OF BARODA

2-Dec-16

Steady Quarter, Focus on Profitability

Result Update
CMP

162

Target Price

188

Previous Target Price


Upside

16%

Operating Profit grew by 15% YoY on the back of Net Interest Income turning
positive and registering the growth of 6% YoY. Operating expenses grew by
12% YoY which led the C/I ratio to stable at 46% YoY. Other income grew by
36% YoY backed by treasury income. Core fee income picked up by 13%
YoY.

Change from Previous

Market Data
BSE Code

532134

NSE Symbol

BANKBARODA
179/104.
37235

52wk Range H/L


Mkt Capital (Rs Cr)
Av. Volume (,000)

1461
8192

Nifty

Stock Performance
1Month

Absolute
Rel.to Nifty

3 Month

1Year

9.6

(3.4)

4.8

13.0

(7.8)

1.3

Share Holding Pattern-%


2QFY17

1QFY17 4QFY16

Promoters

59.2

59.2

59.2

Public
Others
Total

40.8

40.8

40.8

100.0

100.0

100.0

Company Vs NIFTY
120

BANKBARODA

NIFTY

115
110

105
100
95
90
85

NIM improved by 21 bps YoY to 2.29% largely led by improvement in both


domestic as well as overseas NIM of 16 bps and 13 bps YoY respectively.
This improvement in NIM was backed by decline in cost of fund which was
supported by healthy CASA and shedding of high cost of deposits. Overseas
NIM improved on the back of focus on high yielding assets. Management has
targeted the domestic NIM of 3% and overseas NIM more than 1%.

Stress Assets Decline


Slippages were restricted to Rs 2861 Cr against Rs 6096 Cr on 1Q FY17
giving a sign of improvement from this quarter. Healthy recovery & upgradation has also helped to decline the net NPA at Rs 42949 Cr against Rs
42992 Cr QoQ. Recovery & Up-gradation increased by 8% QoQ. The GNPA
and NNPA of the bank stand at 11.35% and 5.46% against 11.15% and
5.73% in previous quarter. PCR improved to 63% against 60% QoQ.
Standard restructured assets now stands at Rs 13860 Cr which declined by
25 QoQ. This quarter management invoked an SDR of Rs 2370 Cr and
there was no 5/25 refinance. These all give us comfort on stress assets
which seems to improve further going forward. However management has
maintained their stance on the earlier guidance of GNPA at RS 45000 Cr to
Rs 50000 Cr in FY17.

Advances Consolidate
As the focus of the management is on profitability, balance sheet continues
to be on consolidation phase. Thus, resulting decline in advances by 15%
YoY. Domestic advances declined by 11% and overseas advances declined
by 22% YoY. As a strategy on overseas portfolio, management has shifted
focused towards higher yielding assets i,e. local credit and syndicated loans.
Buyers credit which comprise low yield will decline further. Corporate
portfolio declined by 10% YoY. Home loan portfolio increased by 12% YoY.
However the loan growth must pick up for the further improvement in
operating profitability.

80

DEEPAK KUMAR
Deepak.kumar@narnolia.com
Narnolia Securities Ltd,

21

BANKBARODA
Concall Highlights:
>> Deacceleration of international portfolio was due to shed in low yield assets.
>> Out of Rs 45000 Cr high cost of deposits, 90% is already shed and rest will be done in 3Q FY17.
>> International cost of deposits has gone up due to LIBOR effect.
>> Efforts are to remix the portfolio towards higher yielded assets in overseas market. Focus on local credit and syndicated
loans which gives yield of 3.6% as compared to 1.2% on buyers credit. Buyers credit are consistently deacreasing.
>> In 2 days following the demonitization BoB has collected Rs 11500 Cr of which Rs 9500 Cr has gone into CASA.
>> Management holds the earlier guidance of slippages. Target the NNPA of less than 2% in FY19-20.
>> Due RBI guidelines on ratings of corporate exposure of above Rs 100 Cr, management expects deceleration in capital.
>> Targeting domestic NIM of 3% and overseas NIM of 1%- 1.2%.
>> CASA target of 35%.
>> Target to grow at a CAGR of 12%-15% from FY14 numbers over the 3 years period.

(Rs in Crore)

Quarterly Performance

Financials
Interest Inc.
Interest Exp.
NII
Other Income
Total Income
Ope Exp.
PPP
Provisions
PBT
Tax
Net Profit

2QFY15
10826
7425
3401
992
4393
1990
2403
888
1515
411
1104

3QFY15
10718
7432
3286
1090
4376
2037
2339
1262
1077
743
334

4QFY15
10762
7590
3172
1295
4467
1774
2694
1818
876
278
598

1QFY16
11276
7817
3460
967
4427
2225
2202
600
1602
550
1052

2QFY16
11156
7912
3244
1144
4389
2051
2337
1892
445
321
124

3QFY16
10614
7909
2705
1113
3818
2114
1704
6165
-4460
-1118
-3342

4QFY16
11014
7684
3330
1775
5105
2533
2572
6858
-4285
-1055
-3230

1QFY17
10434
7062
3371
1444
4815
2146
2669
2004
665
242
424

2QFY17
10485
7059
3426
1561
4988
2297
2690
1796
894
342
552

YoY %
-6%
-11%
6%
36%
14%
12%
15%
-5%
101%
7%
344%

QoQ%
0%
0%
2%
8%
4%
7%
1%
-10%
34%
42%
30%

Profitability Metrix
Ratios

Yield On Advances
Cost of Deposits
NIM% (Overall)
NIM% (Domestic)
NIM% (Overseas)
NII Growth %
C/I Ratio
Other Inc./Net Inc. %
Tax %
PAT to Total Income%

2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 YoY(bps) QoQ(bps)
8.4
8.1
7.7
7.9
7.6
7.0
6.9
7.2
7.3
(0.35)
0.03
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.1
5.1
5.0
5.0
4.7
4.8
(0.26)
0.11
2.4
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.1
1.7
2.2
2.2
2.3
0.21
0.06
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.9
2.7
2.1
2.7
2.8
2.9
0.16
0.05
1.2
0.9
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
0.13
17.5
7.5
1.5
3.9
(4.6)
(17.7)
5.0
(2.6)
5.6
10.20
8.16
45.3
46.6
39.7
50.3
46.7
55.4
49.6
44.6
46.1
(0.69)
1.50
22.6
24.9
29.0
21.8
26.1
29.1
34.8
30.0
31.3
5.24
1.31
27.1
69.0
31.7
34.3
72.0
25.1
24.6
36.3
38.3
(33.78)
1.93
25.1
7.6
13.4
23.8
2.8
(87.5)
(63.3)
8.8
11.1
8.23
2.27
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

22

BANKBARODA
Outlook & Valuation:
Focus of the management on profitability has resulted in steady quarter this time. BoB has shown a sign of improvement in its
profitability. In the clean up exercise, BoB has recognised huge stress assets in its balance sheet. Going forward we expect the
stress assets to decline significantly thus resulting in credit cost to decline. However BoB needs to come out of the consolidation
of advances and should grow its loan portfolio to further support the operating profitability. Strong capitalization of 12.9% CRAR
(Tier 1 at 10.6%) will help the bank to grow further without any near term dilution. We recommend BUY with the target price of
Rs 188.

Other income Break Up


>>Commission, Exchange,
Brokerage
>>Incidental Charges
>>Other Miscellaneous
Income
>>FX
Profits (Treasury)
Total Fee-Based Income
Trading Gains
Recovery from PWO
Total Other Income

(Rs in Crore)

2QFY15
333
104
93
252
782
179
31
992

Yield On Advances

3QFY15
373
79
106
253
811
244
36
1090

4QFY15
429
100
101
244
874
360
61
1295

Cost of Deposits

1QFY16
346
79
94
278
797
157
13
967

2QFY16
361
95
131
253
841
224
79
1144

3QFY16
339
91
128
241
799
289
24
1112

NIM

4QFY16
454
116
111
481
1162
509
104
1775

1QFY17
339
106
139
264
848
557
39
1444

NII Growth %

10.0

20.0

8.0

15.0

6.0

10.0

4.0

5.0

2.0

(5.0)

2QFY17
372
148
155
273
948
546
68
1562

YoY%
3%
55%
18%
8%
13%
144%
-14%
37%

QoQ%
10%
40%
12%
3%
12%
-2%
74%
8%

C/I Ratio
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0

(10.0)
(15.0)
(20.0)

Narnolia Securities Ltd,

10.0
-

BANKBARODA
Assets Quality Performance
GNPA (Rs)
GNPA %
NNPA (Rs)
NNPA %
Slippages (Rs)
Recovery & Upgradation
Gross Restr. Assets (Rs)
PCR %

2QFY15
13058
3.32
6705

3QFY15
15492
3.85
8291

4QFY15
16261
3.72
8069

1QFY16
17274
4.13
8470

2QFY16
23710
5.56
12798

3QFY16
38934
9.68
21806

4QFY16
40521
9.99
19406

1QFY17
42992
11.15
20783

2QFY17
42949
11.35
19342

YoY%
81%
1.04
51%

QoQ
%
0%

1.74
1853
513
23371
65

2.11
2852
380
23100
62

1.89
1789
354
31572
65

2.07
1908
827
31257
65

3.08
6962
414
30170
58

5.67
15785
325
30716
53

5.06
5932
3200
29004
60

5.73
6096
2482
29809
60

5.46
2861
2687
28464
63

0.77
-59%
550%
-6%
0.08

####
####
8%
-5%
0.05

0.02
-7%

Specific PCR %

GNPA %

NNPA %
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
-

12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
-

Advances
Net Advances (Rs in Cr)
Advances Growth YoY %
>> Growth QoQ %

2QFY15
385766
13.51
1.05

3QFY15
393630
11.69
2.04

4QFY15
428065
7.82
8.75

1QFY16
408388
6.97
-4.60

2QFY16
414900
7.55
1.59

3QFY16
384272
-2.38
-7.38

4QFY16
383770
-10.35
-0.13

1QFY17
362766
-11.17
-5.47

2QFY17
354150
-14.64
-2.38

Advances Break Up %
>>Domestic
>>International

2QFY15
67.08
32.92

3QFY15
66.28
33.72

4QFY15
68.18
31.82

1QFY16
67.54
32.46

2QFY16
66.92
33.08

3QFY16
67.45
32.55

4QFY16
68.60
31.40

1QFY17
69.09
30.91

2QFY17
69.60
30.40

Deposits
Deposits (Rs in Cr)
>> Growth YoY %
>> Growth QoQ %
CASA % (Domestic)
CASA Growth YoY %
>> Growth QoQ %
Credit Deposit Ratio

2QFY15
566926
16.91
2.77
31.89
15.91
6.78
68.05

3QFY15
564600
12.07
-0.41
32.42
12.93
0.75
69.72

4QFY15
617560
8.55
9.38
33.01
11.25
9.27
69.32

1QFY16
593087
7.51
-3.96
31.89
10.76
-5.78
68.86

2QFY16
612458
8.03
3.27
31.95
4.11
0.37
67.74

3QFY16
589687
4.44
-3.72
29.97
-5.11
-8.17
65.17

4QFY16
574038
-7.05
-2.65
33.57
-7.14
6.93
66.85

1QFY17
562174
-5.21
-2.07
33.83
-1.16
0.29
64.53

2QFY17
567531
-7.34
0.95
34.23
1.72
3.29
62.40

Narnolia Securities Ltd,


Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

23

BANKBARODA
Financials Snap Shot
INCOME STATEMENT (Consolidated)

(Rs in Crore)

FY13

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

26,611

28,657

31,669

30,700

Credit-Deposit(%)

69.3

69.8

69.3

66.9

Income on Investments

7,888

9,294

10,604

11,334

CASA % (Domestic)

30.4

31.8

33.0

33.6

Intt. on bal.with RBI & other inter-bank Funds

1,538

1,671

1,718

1,470

Efficiency Ratios

404

841

924

2,295

Employ. Cost as a % of Total Inco. (%)

22.0

23.5

22.6

26.4

Total Interest Income

36,442

40,463

44,915

45,799

Other Exp./Total Inco. (%)

16.3

17.7

20.8

24.2

Total Interest expended

24,486

27,604

30,547

32,107

Cost Income Ratio (%)

38.3

41.2

43.4

50.6

Net Interest Income

11,956

12,858

14,368

13,692

Spread Analysis As Calculated


Yield on Advances (%)

8.4

7.7

7.5

7.3

Yield on Investments (%)

7.3

7.3

8.1

9.0

Interest / discount on advances / bills

Others

FY14

FY15

FY16

RATIOS
Business Ratios

Other Income

4,511

5,555

5,449

5,992

Total Income

16,466

18,414

19,818

19,684

6,306

7,592

8,604

9,962

Yield on Earning Assets (%)

7.5

6.8

6.6

6.8

Cost of Deposits (%)

5.2

4.8

4.7

4.9

Cost of Fund (%)

5.3

4.9

4.7

5.0

Total Operating Expenses


Pre Provisioning Profit

10,160

10,821

11,213

9,721

Provisions (other than tax) and Contingencies

4,965

4,825

5,230

15,954

Profit Before Tax

5,195

5,996

5,983

(6,233) Interest Spread (%)

2.3

1.9

1.9

1.9

444

1,065

2,151

(1,180) NIM (%)

2.4

2.1

2.0

2.0

4,804

5,001

3,912

(5,068)

RoE %

16.1

14.4

9.7

-15.3

RoA %

0.9

0.8

0.5

-0.8

67.2

68.2

68.0

70.1

Provisions/PPP (%)

95.6

80.5

87.4

-256.0

Other Income/Net Income (%)

27.4

30.2

27.5

30.4

Tax Rate (%)

8.6

17.8

35.9

18.9

Tax
Net Profit attributable to the group

Souce: Eastwind/Company

BALANCE SHEET (Consolidated)

Profitability Ratio

(Rs in Crore) Interest Expended / Interest Earned (%)

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16

423

431

444

462

Reserves & Surplus

32859

37416

41574

42041

Deposits

482639

579997

629981

586690

Asset Quality Ratio

Borrowings

26553

36976

35502

33845

GNPA (%)

2.40

2.94

3.72

9.99

Other Liabilities & Provisions

16805

21136

26290

27947

GNPA(Rs)

7,983

11,876

16,261

40,521

Total Capital & Liabilities

559388

676114

733977

691179

NNPA (%)

1.28

1.52

1.89

5.06

NNPA (Rs)

4,192

6,035

8,069

19,406

68.24

Capital

Cash & Balances with Reserve Bank of India

14151

19445

23557

22811

PCR (%)

Balances with Banks and Money at Call & Short Notice 73551

114911

128074

114188

Gross Restr. Assets (Rs)

65.45

64.99

60.06

22,553

31,572

29,004

Investments

125617

122113

130246

128894

Advances

333625

403715

435415

391486

Fixed Assets

2550

2849

2978

6359

Capital Adequacy Ratio (%)

Other Assets

9894

13081

13706

27441

Tier I Capital (%)

13.3

12.3

12.6

13.2

10.1

9.3

9.9

10.8

Total Assets

559388

676114

733977

691179

Tier II Capital (%)

3.2

3.0

2.7

2.4

Capital Adequacy Ratio

Souce: Eastwind/Company

Narnolia Securities Ltd,


Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.

Souce: Eastwind/Company

24

Narnolia Securities Ltd


201 | 2nd Floor | Marble Arch Building | 236B-AJC Bose Road |
Kolkata-700 020 , Ph : 033-40501500
email: narnolia@narnolia.com, website
: www.narnolia.com

Risk Disclosure & Disclaimer: This report/message is for the personal information of
the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation
advice to you. Narnolia Securities Ltd. (Hereinafter referred as NSL) is not soliciting any
action based upon it. This report/message is not for public distribution and has been
furnished to you solely for your information and should not be reproduced or
redistributed to any other person in any from. The report/message is based upon publicly
available information, findings of our research wing East wind & information that we
consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and we do not
provide any express or implied warranty of any kind, and also these are subject to change
without notice. The recipients of this report should rely on their own investigations,
should use their own judgment for taking any investment decisions keeping in mind that
past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance & that the the value of
any investment or income are subject to market and other risks. Further it will be safe to
assume that NSL and /or its Group or associate Companies, their Directors, affiliates
and/or employees may have interests/ positions, financial or otherwise, individually or
otherwise in the recommended/mentioned securities/mutual funds/ model funds and
other investment products which may be added or disposed including & other
mentioned in this report/message.

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