1st SemesterSY20162017

Math31 ElementaryStatistics

Probability and
Counting
Techniques
in

Introduction

STATISTICS

DefinitionofTerms
Data&Measurements
Datacollection&
organization

Inferential
Statistics

Descriptive
Statistics
Data Summary
Calculations
and Display
(Graphical or
Tabular)

Classical
Bayesian

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Estimation
Hypothesis
Testing
Statistical
Modelling

Major Areas of Statistics

1. Descriptive Statistics deals
largely with summary calculations,
graphical displays and describing
important features of a data set.
2. Inferential Statistics concerned
with making generalizations from
information gathered on a sample to the
population

STATISTICAL EXPERIMENT
An experimentations in which results will not be
essentially the same even though conditions may be
nearly identical, and it has the following
characteristics:
a) A listing of all outcomes is possible or at least
conceivable.
b) Any outcome cannot be predicted with certainty.
Example of a statistical experiment is tossing a coin,
or drawing a ball from a box, or study on cognitive
learning, or study on employees performance, or
study on customer satisfaction.
1

Math31 ElementaryStatistics

1st SemesterSY20162017

STATISTICAL EXPERIMENT
Sample space the set of all possible outcomes of
statistical experiment. It is denoted by or .
Sample point is an outcome of statistical
experiment, i.e., an element of or .
Example 1. In a toss of a coin, there are two
possible outcomes: a head (H) or a tail (T). Thus
the sample space is
,
Example 2. Construct a sample space for
experiment of tossing two coins.
Solution:
,
,
,

STATISTICAL EXPERIMENT
Example 3. A student is chosen at random from a
class of 35 students. What is the sample space for
the experiment if the variable of interest is
a.) Sex of the student
b.) Identity of the student
c.) Final grade of the student

STATISTICAL EXPERIMENT
Event is a subset of a sample space, and
denoted by capital letters such as , , , . It can
either be null, simple or compound.
Simple Event is an event with one element only.
Compound Event is an event that can be
expressed as union of simple events.
Null / Empty Event is a set contains no element.
Example 3. Consider an experiment of tossing a die
a.) , event that outcome on die top face is odd number.
b.) , event that outcome on die top face is even
number.

STATISTICAL EXPERIMENT
Event is a subset of a sample space, and
denoted by capital letters such as , , , . It can
either be null, simple or compound.
Simple Event is an event with one element only.
Compound Event is an event that can be
expressed as union of simple events.
Null / Empty Event is a set contains no element.
Example 3. Consider an experiment of tossing a die
c.) give an example of null event for this experiment.
d.) enumerate all simple events of this experiment.
e.) enumerate all compound events of this experiment.

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Solution:
a.)
,
b.) consist of the names of 35 students in the
class
c.)
1.0, 1.25, 1.5, 1.75, 2.0, 2.25, 2.5, 2.75, 3.0, 5.0

Math31 ElementaryStatistics

1st SemesterSY20162017

STATISTICAL EXPERIMENT
Mutually Exclusive Events are two or more
events that cannot occur simultaneously.
Equally like events are two or more events that
have no reason to occur one over the other, i.e.,
classically, events with same number of elements.
Example 4. On the experiment of tossing a die, and
1, 3, 5 and
2, 4, 6
given event
a.) Are and mutually exclusive events? YES
b.) Are and equally likely events? YES
c.) Are and 1, 2 mutually exclusive events? NO
d.) Are and 1, 2 equally likely events? NO

STATISTICAL EXPERIMENT

COUNTING TECHNIQUES
FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLE OF COUNTING (FPC)
If an operation can be performed in
ways and if
for each of these a second operation can be
ways, then the two operations can
performed in
be performed together in
ways.
This principle can be extended to 3 or more
operations.
The listing of all possible ways that these
operations are done can be illustrated using a tree
diagram a graphical a way of representing the
hierarchical nature of a structure.

COUNTING TECHNIQUES
FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLE OF COUNTING (FPC)
Example 6. Three items are selected randomly from a
manufacturing process. Each item is inspected and
classified as defective (D)
or non-defective (N).
Determine the number of ways
this selection can be done, using:
(a) the fundamental principle of
counting and (b) tree diagram.
Solution:
a.) 2 2 2 8 ways
b.)

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QUIZ. Consider an experiment of selecting two

students with sex as variable of interest.
Determine the following:
a.) Sample space of the experiment.
b.) , the event that at least one female will be
selected.
c.) , the event that at most two female will be
selected.
d.) Are and mutually exclusive events ?
e.) Are and equally likely events ?

Math31 ElementaryStatistics

1st SemesterSY20162017

COUNTING TECHNIQUES
FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLE OF COUNTING (FPC)
Example 7. How many 3-digit numbers can be
formed from the digits 3, 7, 8 and 9 if
a.) no digit is repeated
b.) repetition of digits is allowed
c.) repetition of digits is allowed and the number is
even
Solution:
a.)
4 3 2
3-digit numbers
b.)
4 4 4
3-digit numbers
c.)
4 4 1
3-digit numbers

COUNTING TECHNIQUES
COUNTING PERMUTATIONS
PERMUTATION is an arrangement of all or part of
a set of objects. Here we are going to discuss some
properties of permutation.

COUNTING TECHNIQUES
COUNTING PERMUTATIONS
Property 3: The number of permutations of distinct
objects be arranged in a circle is
1 !
Property 4: The number of permutations of objecs
of which
are of the 1st kind (or alike),
of a 2nd
kind, , of the kth kind, is given by
!
! ! !

COUNTING TECHNIQUES
COUNTING PERMUTATIONS
Example 8. In how many ways can Maria, Jose,
Pedro and Martha be seated in a row?
Example 9. How many distinct permutations can be
made from the letters of the word LOVER? How
many of these start with letter L?
Example 10. If two prizes: 1st and 2nd, will be
awarded from among 10 students, how many ways
can this be done? Assume that only one prize will be
won by a winner.

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Property 1: The number of permutations of

object is !.

distinct

Property 2: The number of permutations of

objects taken at a time is
!
!

distinct

Math31 ElementaryStatistics

1st SemesterSY20162017

COUNTING TECHNIQUES
COUNTING PERMUTATIONS
Example 11. How many ways can 3 vacant positions:
President, Vice-President, and Secretary be filled from
among 6 equally qualified company executives?
Example 12. In how many ways that Juan, Pedro and
Maria be seated in a round table?
Example 13. In how many different ways can 3 red, 4
yellow and 2 green bulbs be arranged in a string of
Christmas tree lights with 9 sockets?
Example 14. How the number of distinct arrangement
of the letters in the word MISSISSIPPI?

COUNTING TECHNIQUES
COUNTING COMBINATIONS
COMBINATION is a grouping or selecting objects
from distinct objects without regards to order. The
number of combinations of distinct objects taken
at a time is
!
!
!

COUNTING TECHNIQUES
COUNTING COMBINATIONS
Example 16. From 4 CBAA and 3 CESS students, find
the number of ways that a committee compose of 3
students be formed with 2 CBAA and 1 CESS student.
EXERCISES: From 5 CBAA, 4 CESS and 3 CAF
students, a committee of 3 CBAA, 2 CESS and 1 CAF
student is be formed. In how many ways can this be
done if:
a.) any students from these courses can be included
b.) 1 particular CESS student must be in the committee
c.) 2 particular CBAA students cannot be in the
committee.

PROBABILITY
It is a term used in the measure of ones belief in
the occurrence of future event. A popular method
of assigning probabilities is the classical method
Classical Definition of Probability computation
of probability of an event that is based on counting
techniques: that is, counting elements of events
and sample space. If an experiment can result in any
one of different equally likely outcomes, and if exactly
of these ways correspond to event , then the
probability of event is

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Example 15. How many different combinations can

be formed from the letters a, b, and c if two letters
are taken at a time?

1st SemesterSY20162017

Math31 ElementaryStatistics

PROBABILITY (Classical)

PROBABILITY (Classical)

Example 17. In tossing two dice, what is the probability

that sum of the numbers is greater than 10?
Solution: Let be the event that sum of the numbers is
6,6 , 5,6 , 6,5 . Also, since
greater than 10, i.e.,

36, then
3
1
0.083
36 12

Example 18. Consider an experiment of selecting

randomly two students from a class with 20 female and
10 male students. Determine the probability of the
following
a.) , the event that at least one male will be selected.
b.) , the event that at most one female will be selected.

PROBABILITY (Classical)
Properties of Probability.
The probability of an event is the sum of the
probabilities of all sample points in . Therefore, the
following properties hold:
1.) 0
1
0
2.)
1
3.)
4.)

1, where and are

1
complementary events

PROBABILITY (Classical)
General Addition Rule in Probability.
This applies to union of events. If and are
any two events, then

where
is the joint probability that both events
will occur simultaneously
Example 19. In drawing a card from a regular deck
of card, find the probability that the card is either
a.) ace or diamond
c.) ace or black
b.) ace or king

If an experiment can result in any one of different equally

likely outcomes, and if exactly of these ways correspond to
event , then the probability of event is

MindanaoStateUniversityatNaawan

If an experiment can result in any one of different equally

likely outcomes, and if exactly of these ways correspond to
event , then the probability of event is

Math31 ElementaryStatistics

1st SemesterSY20162017

PROBABILITY (Classical)
General Addition Rule in Probability.
Example 20. In selecting randomly a student from a
class with a distribution
SEX
COURSE
TOTAL
Female Male
Course A
11
10
21
Course B
9
8
17
Course C
8
4
12
TOTAL
28
22
50
find the probability that the student is
a.) Course A or Female
b.) Course B or A

PROBABILITY (Classical)
Multiplication Rule in Probability.
If in an experiment, the events and can both
occur simultaneously, then

where
is the conditional probability that
occurs given . If is independent from , then
. Thus,

, i.e.,
event A and B are independent.
Remark: Two events and are independent if
either
or
. Otherwise,
and are dependent.

PROBABILITY (Classical)
Multiplication Rule in Probability.
Example 21. For instance, you have a box
containing 5 balls wherein 3 are white and 2 are
black. Now, Two of the balls will be drawn from the
box successively, what is the probability that drawn
balls are both black?
a.) consider with replacement
(events are independent)
b.) consider without replacement
(events are dependent)

PROBABILITY (Classical)
Example 22. A class has 10 boys and 5 girls. If three
students are selected at random from the class, what is
the probability that they are all boys?
Example 23. In Noodles & Company restaurant, based
on their data, 8% of their customers order a desert, 14%
order bottled beverage and 1.12% order both desert
and bottled beverage. Randomly,
a.) If a customer orders a desert, what is the
probability that it will also order bottled beverage?
b.) If it order bottled beverage, what is the probability
that it will also order a desert?
c.) What is the probability that customer will order
desert or bottled beverage?

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