Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
On Sept 26, we released a documentary on the possibility of World War III occurring in the
coming years. I made three arguments.
First, the general pattern in Eurasia today broadly resembles the way Eurasia looked prior to
World War II. Second, I argued that we are already seeing regional wars, some intense. Finally, I
said that while an integrated war like World War II might occur, it is not by any means a certainty.
Thats my view, but it is worth going to the extreme and thinking about how such a war
might come about and what it would look like. This is speculation on my part, but sometimes
speculation can trigger thoughtful discussion and generate new scenarios and new ideas.
Lets assume, for arguments sake, that the broad pattern would resemble World War II.
Europes Disintegration
During this time, Europe will be destabilizing. NATO will be weakened now that the US is engaged
in Asia and diverting forces there. The EU will have been fragmenting for a long time. Nationalist
political parties will be taking power and their goal will be to protect the interests of their own
nation, not Europe as a whole.
There will be small conflicts in Europe. The disintegration of the EU and the weakness of NATO
will allow conflicts within and between nations to operate unchecked. Germany, the major power
in Europe, will have its own economic and social problems, and given its history, will not be
allowed to play the role of occupier and peacemaker.
Turkeys Chance
As all this is happening, Turkey, the leading Islamic country, would be alarmed and intrigued. If
the Russians were to win the war, Turkeys position would be weakened, and it might be forced to
submit to Russia.
But with Russia absorbed in Europe and the US fighting a global war on two fronts, Turkey would
see intriguing possibilities. It could exert its influence in the Arab world, controlling its oil. Or it
could gain a foothold in Europe in the Balkans. It could also turn the Mediterranean into a Turkish
lake.
No one would be in a position to block Turkey, and there would never be a better chance of
enhancing Turkish and Muslim power. Turkeys position would be unassailable no matter who
won the war between Russia and the US.
All wars have surprising outcomes, and how all this ends is a guess. A good guess would be that
Turkey would seek to secure its rear by exerting its force over the Arab world. It would use its
own forces as little as possible. Turkey would use alliances plus limited force to make certain that
no threats emerge in that region, and it would watch for the outcome of the other conflicts that
are raging.