Why Indias Blue Water Ambitions Matter

Overlooking Chinas past objections, India, Japan and the United States are
conducting joint naval war games this month in the Pacific Ocean, adjacent
to the East China Sea. Indias decision to proceed with the trilateral exercise
after five years of keeping Japan out, so as not to provoke China, indicates a
new brand of maritime assertiveness. At the same time, both Indian and
Chinese navies are actively building blue water capabilities an ability to
carry out operations much farther than their territorial boundaries, across
the deep oceans. As India juggles the dual imperative to simultaneously
befriend and hedge against an economically and militarily rising China, the
outcome of its blue water quest will influence the balance of power in Asia
for years to come.
Why Develop Blue Water Capabilities?
Almost unnoticed by the rest of the world, India has built one of the largest
and most powerful navies in the world. However, there exist a number of
drivers for further expanding its influence at sea.
New Delhi has been growing uneasy about Beijings perceived String of
Pearls strategy in the Indian Ocean. Some see this as encirclement by
Chinas strategic alliances and building of maritime facilities in Sri Lanka,
Pakistan, Bangladesh and Myanmar. With China developing its own blue
water navy, India aims to not only secure its own territory but also be able
to project power farther than its shores.
While Beijing grows its influence in the Indian Ocean that India sees as its
backyard, New Delhi in turn targets a strong presence in the eastern South
China Sea. Both countries aim to have presence in the strategically
locatedMalacca Straits, where 40 percent of the worlds trade and more
than 80 percent of Chinas oil imports pass through.
While most of its wars have been fought on land and air, a strong navy with
nuclear deployment capabilities gives India a much-needed strategic edge.
As opposed to land and air, India is importantly at a relative locational
advantage on the sea vis--vis China. The Economist argues that Indias
naval advantage might allow it to impede oil traffic heading for China
through the Malacca Straits.
Further, India and China are projected to be the largest sources of energy
demand in the future, and domestic energy sources would be insufficient
for both countries to meet their growing demand. India is expected to
import 90 percent of its crude oil by 2030, and its coal imports are
expected to more than double to 300 million tonnes by 2040. India needs
to be able to protect the energy routes to bring these resources to its shores.
The tremors of Chinas increasing claims in the South China Sea are already
being felt across Asia, giving the Indian Navy more reason to beef up its
fleet. While it might not be a primary player in the disputed waters, India
would not want to be excluded from exploring assets in the resource-rich
South China Sea or elsewhere as it scours far and wide for much-needed
energy sources. Such fears are already starting to come true with China
claiming control over the waters where an oil block was being explored by
an Indian petroleum giant at Vietnams invitation earlier this year. In a rare
assertion of maritime power, D.K. Joshi, former Indian Navy Chief
Admiral, indicated last year that India is prepared to defend its interests in
the South China Sea, though it does not expect to be in those waters too
frequently.

A blue water navy would provide muscle for all these strategic imperatives,
enhance regional power projection capabilities, more effectively protect
Indias expanding energy and trade routes, and enable stronger defense and
trade ties with other nations.
Why Does the Rest of the World Care?
There is a long list of nations keen on such partnerships with India. Chinas
deepening and persistent pattern of assertiveness in the South China Sea
including the release of a map last month that claims ever-increasing areas
stretching down to the coasts of Malaysia, Vietnam and the Philippines
has set alarm bells ringing in a number of Southeast Asian countries.
Incidentally, the same map claims control over Indias northeastern state of
Arunachal Pradesh, practically throwing it together with the Southeast
Asian countries in indignation. Countries such as Vietnam, the Philippines
and Indonesia see increasing Chinese sea claims as a fundamental security
and economic threat and would like India and other countries to step up
and assume a stronger role in the region. In turn, Indias Look East policy
of the 1990s has drawn it closer to the very same countries. India now holds
joint naval exercises with several of these countries, including in the South
China Sea.
India and Japan are drawing closer and naval ties are the cornerstones of
this strengthening defense relationship. In the first break from its selfimposed ban on defense exports since 1967, Japan is selling 15
amphibious aircrafts to India. Apart from the ongoing trilateral naval
exercise with the United States, India and Japan will also carry out a
bilateral exercise in the Pacific Ocean this year. Indias new pairing with
Japan will surely have Beijings attention. Next year, India and Australia
will start carrying outannual bilateral naval exercises.
Finally, the United States is keen to balance China by diverting an
increasing share of its naval fleet to the Pacific Ocean under its so-called
Pivot to Asia policy. In light of its own shrinking defense budget, the
United States realizes the difficulty in materializing its intentions of
extending its own naval presence in the region. To overcome this
constraint, a quadrilateral naval alliance of India, Japan, Australia and the
United States has long been on Washingtons mind though the idea lost
steam after Chinas protests in 2007. A new rightwing government in New
Delhi gives the United States the impetus to push ahead for India to take a
larger role in the West Pacific Ocean.
India has been traditionally wary of forming strategic military alliances,
preferring to play a solitary hand. This is particularly true when it comes to
the tricky relationship with China, now Indias largest trade partner. Indian
policymakers have been reluctant to get drawn into matters that do not
directly concern the countrys national interests. India is also wary of being
the junior partner in a possible regional alliance the country does not
trust the United States to support it in a potential conflict, given its own
complicated relationship with China and historically warm relationship
with Pakistan. However, this reluctance is not preventing India from
forging new partnerships at sea, which are much less noticeable but just as
important strategically. Further, the new Indian government is putting its
head together with its naval establishment to come up with a coordinated
strategy for the Indian Ocean, including capacity building of other
countries in the Indian Ocean. These developments imply a rare tactical
focus from a country often accused of having a weak strategic culture.
The Path to Blue Water Power

Indias new Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited the naval aircraft carrier
INS Vikramaditya in his first trip outside New Delhi since taking oath last
month, in a move seen by many as signaling the importance his
government places on defense might. Shortly afterwards, Arun Jaitley,
Indias Defense and Finance Minister released the annual budget that
showed a 12 percent increase in defense spending. According to IHS
Janesestimates, India would become the fourth largest defense spender by
2020, only behind the United States, China and Russia.
The Indian Navys share of the defense budget has increased in the last
decade, though in absolute terms it is still smaller than the army and air
force. The acquisition of the Russia-made INS Vikramaditya last year takes
the number of Indian Navys aircraft carriers up to two, the most owned
by any Asian country. Admittedly, one of the two is an ageing aircraft
carrier that is reaching the end of its service. However, India isbuilding its
first indigenous aircraft carrier to take its place, which is expected for
induction by 2018. The countrys first indigenously built nuclear
submarine is undergoing sea trials. Its induction would complete the
countrys nuclear triad the ability to launch nuclear weapons by land, air
or sea. While India has a No First Use policy, a nuclear submarine
enhances its second strike capabilities. A sea-based nuclear deterrent
would alter the regions nuclear landscape in Indias favor.
India also intends to augment its naval fleet. The Indian Navy now has
around 145 warships, but many are due for progressive retirement. A senior
official of the Indian Navy stated last year that India intended to have
a 200-ship navy in the next 10 years an ambitious goal. The Navys
approved shopping list runs into billions of dollars and includes deep sea
rescue vessels, an indigenous anti-submarine craft program, Israeli air
defense missiles, and anti-ship missiles from the United
States amongst other planned acquisitions.
All is Not Rosy for Indias Blue Water Ambitions
The country has an aging naval fleet and replacement is often fraught with
major delays. For instance, the INS Vikramaditya was delayed by five
years, and an Indian Comptroller and Auditor General report criticized the
navys operational readiness, given 74 percent of its refits between 2005
and 2010 were completed with a total delay of more than 23 years. The
Indian Navy is currently weak on submarine capabilities. Most of Indias
defense equipment is imported (mostly from Russia) and the country needs
to develop its indigenous manufacturing capabilities. The navys allocation
in the defense budget would force it to make crucial tradeoffs between
developing one capability versus the other. Added to this is the strategic
disconnect between the defense forces and the Ministry of Defense. Cost
effective and timely modernization would be critical to fully realize Indias
blue water dreams. India has the allocated funds, locational advantage,
time and the opportunity to form strategic alliances on its side. But it needs
to avoid getting this agenda mired in bureaucracy, inefficiency and a lack of
strategic focus. And as acknowledged by its policy thinkers, India does
have a window of opportunity to forge ahead on building its naval
capabilities while China is still preoccupied with the Pacific Ocean.
Just like the sea, naval maneuvers seem deceptively quiet for the most part,
but in fact conceal deep underlying currents. The outcomes of Indias blue
water quest will subtly but surely impact the regions long-term strategic
calculus.

Ritika Katyal is pursuing a Masters Degree in Public Affairs at Princeton

University.
http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/08/04/why-indias-blue-water-ambitions-matter/ on
November 28, 2016