Deanna Zdunich

ATMO 1010-003-F16
Class Project
Instructor: Derek Mallia
3 December 2016

Wildfires, Climate Change and the Future: Simplified

The history and future of wildfire frequency is very important to people. We need to
learn how to understand the relationship between wildfires and climate change in order to protect
our planet and the people who inhabit it.
Studies on wildfires and the climate include terms and abbreviations which might cause
confusion. To provide clarification, a simple definition of terms is included. Global
Warming and Climate Change are distinctly different. According to NASA, Global warming
refers to an increase in Earths surface temperature due to levels of greenhouse gases. Climate
change is a long-term change in the Earths climate, or of a region on Earth. (Conway) Many
studies refer to MTBS. This is the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity project which mapped
burns from 1984 and beyond in the United States. It is accessible at www.mtbs.gov.
Anthropogenic is a term which means something that was caused or started by humans. Many
fires and emissions are anthropogenic.
One of the most important things to understand is the difference between CO2, CO and
PM 2.5. CO and CO2 are often confused. The main difference is that CO2 (Carbon Dioxide) is a
common, naturally occurring gas required for all plant and animal life. Humans and animals
breathe out CO2. CO (Carbon Monoxide) is not common and is a byproduct of the oxygen-

starved combustion of fuel. CO causes the most poisoning fatalities in the world. (source: CO2
Meter)
PM 2.5 is particulate matter that is less than 2.5 microns. For reference, there are
approximately 25,000 microns in an inch. This is something that is about 30 times smaller than a
human hair. (Dept. of Health) The small particles can be inhaled by humans and animals which
causes respiratory problems.
Wildfires emit many things including CO, CO2 and PM 2.5. These can be harmful to the
climate and to humans. The frequency and effect that wildfires have on our planet will be
discussed.
Wildfires have been tracked before WWII, but it became important during the war as
people feared that our forest resources would be attacked by our enemies. Smokey the Bear was
officially launched on August 9, 1944. The efforts of the Smokey the Bear campaign were to
help Americans to be more careful and to help prevent forest fires.
Better tracking of wildfires occurred with the help of satellites in the 1970s. Computers
also were able to create simulations of wildfires and helped to collect data from around the
globe. MTBS monitors the areas burned from 1984 and forward. These websites and studies
help to give more data and information
A study from NASA demonstrates that fires were not really a problem until the industrial
revolution in the late 1700s. It is important to understand the wildfires are a natural part of our
Earth. It balances the carbon levels which in turn help to keep our climate steady. Fires became
more frequent and humans were the biggest cause. In the mid 1900s, fires suppression helped to
reduce the fire activity and the standardized charcoal influx was headed back to a steady level.

The concern for the future of wildfires revolves around climate change. This model predicts that
wildfires will increase to even higher levels by the year 2100.

Fires occur naturally when lightning strikes the earth. Because the western United States
has less humidity and dryer land conditions, it is susceptible to fires. There are also lightning
storms with no rain which allow fires to burn. However, humans are the main cause of wildfires.
Approximately 88 % of wildfires over a 10-year period were attributed to humans. Most are
accidentally started by campers, hikers, garbage and debris burners. Some fires are started to
help prevent future forest fires. They are called prescribed burns and can be very helpful to fire
prevention.

The largest fires occur in forests. The most global fire activity is in the tropical areas in
the rainforests where they are cutting down forests and burning them for farmlands.
(Http://www.globalfiredata.org) The Western United States has many wildfires as well. In a
study by Dennison, Brewer, Arnold and Moritz, fire trends from 1984 to 2011 demonstrated an
increase in nine ecoregions. Total fire area increased yearly as well as large fire frequency over
the years studied. This study demonstrates that the number of fires and the area that is being
burned is increasing and drought conditions increasing.

One reason for the increase in wildfires may be attributed to climate change. It is like a
circle that progressively gets worse. CO2 is an insulator for the Earth. It acts like a blanket in
the atmosphere. If more CO2 is in the air, it absorbs more radiation and heat from the sun. As

the Earth gets warmer, it becomes less humid. With less humidity, fuel dries out and when fires
are started, the fuel burns more easily. With more fires comes more CO2 and the cycle starts
again.
The World Resource Institute also states that Beetle outbreaks can lead to tree deaths
that provide more short-term fuel for wildfires. Warmer temperatures allow the beetles to
reproduce more. The Beetles have been causing a lot of damage in the western United States in
higher elevations. Between 2000 and 2010, more than 43 million acres of forest were damaged.
This may also contribute to more acreage being burned than before.
One big concern connected with fires is that it affects the snowpack by depositing
particles in the snow. This causes the snowpack to thaw more quickly in the spring and causes
the land to be more dry. This also causes the trees to be more dry and more easily burned. As
the snowpack is depleted, the fire season starts earlier. A study by Westerling, Hidalgo, Cayan
and Swetnam, demonstrated that large wildfire activity increased suddenly and markedly in the
mid-1980s, with higher large-wildfire frequency, longer wildfire durations, and longer wildfire
seasons. The largest increase in wildfires occurred in the Northern Rockies. It predicts there
will be warmer springs and longer fire seasons. The fires in the west could be responsible for
increased CO2 levels in the United States which could cause a climate change due to increasing
temperatures.
Along with the warmer spring and longer fire season comes the increase of beetles in the
western United States. The World Resource Institute also states that Beetle outbreaks can lead
to tree deaths that provide more short-term fuel for wildfires. Warmer temperatures allow the
beetles to reproduce more. The Beetles have been causing a lot of damage in the western United

States in higher elevations. Between 2000 and 2010, more than 43 million acres of forest were
damaged. This may also contribute to more acreage being burned than before.
Another factor to consider when discussing wildfires is air quality. In a study by Mallia,
Lin, Urbanski, Ehleringer and Nehrkorn, emissions from wildfires were tracked with respect to
Salt Lake City, Utah. Outcomes demonstrated that CO emissions were mostly attributed to
anthropogenic sources. Only a small amount of increased CO in the months of August and
September was from wildfires. In 2012, there was more of an impact of CO enhancements.
(33.3% in 2012 and only 14.6% in 2007)
The study did show an increase in PM 2.5 in the air in August and September for 2012 in
Salt Lake City. Models also showed large smoke plumes coming from Idaho to Utah. This
confirmed that air quality was affected in Salt Lake City by the wildfires in Idaho. PM 2.5 is a
pollutant that is monitored by the EPA. It is dangerous and with this study it demonstrates that
fires are a major contributor of PM 2.5 in Utah.
A study in Canada focused on patient visits to doctors after increase PM 2.5 emissions
caused by forest fires. The study showed a 46% increase in patient visits for respiratory
conditions. (I do not have a similar study for SLC, but I work in a Family Practice Clinic and we
have seen this same phenomenon whenever there are smoke plumes over the valley.)
After looking at numerous studies, it is clear to see that with the increase of wildfires,
especially in the western United States, there is a probable increase in warmer springs and longer
fire seasons. This could also increase the average temperatures across the globe which leads to
less humidity. This positive feedback mechanism could have an impact on humans through
increased PM 2.5 emissions caused by wildfires which could have lasting effects on our health.

Sources Cited
BC Air Quality, How Forest fires Affect Air Quality British Columbia website.
Web accessed 3 Dec 2016. http://www.bcairquality.ca/topics/forest-fires-air-quality.html
Conway, Erik. Global Climate Change. Whats in a Name? Global Warming vs. Climate Change.
9 Dec 2008. Web Accessed. 3 Dec 2016
https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/climate_by_any_other_name.html
CO2 Meter. CO and CO2 Whats the difference? 2016. Web accessed. 3 Dec 2016
http://www.co2meter.com/blogs/news/1209952-co-and-co2-what-s-the-difference
Dennison, P. E., S. C. Brewer, J.D. Arnold, and M. A. Moritz. (2014) Large wildfire trends in the
western United States, 1984-2011, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 2928-2933,
doi:10.1002/2014GLO59576
Fine Particles: Questions and Answers. Department of Health. 2016. Web accessed. 3 Dec
2016. http://www.health.ny.gov/environmental/indoors/air/pmq_a.htm
Mallia, D.V., J. C. Lin, S. Urbanski, J. Ehleringer, and t. Nehrkorn (2015), Impacts of Upwind
Wildfire emissions on CO, Co2 and Pm 2.5 Concentrations in Salt Lake City, Utah, J.
Geophys. Res. Atmos., 120, 147-166, oi:10.1002/2014JD022472
Tompkins, Forbes and Deconcini, Christina. Western U.S. Wildfires and the Climate Change
Connection. World Resources Institute. 2014. Web accessed 3 Dec 2016
http://www.wri.org/sites/default/files/WRI14_Factsheets_Western_US_Wildfires.pdf

Westerling, A.L., Hidalgo, H. G., Cayan, D. R., Swetnam, T. W. Warming and Earlier Spring
Increase Western U.S. Forest Wildfire Activity. 17 April 2006. 10.1126/science.1128834