STAT 134 Concepts of Probability

Homework 3 Solutions
Exercise 1.6.4
1 9 1
a) Since the events are independent, we have P (jackpot) = 20
= 2093 .
20 20
1 11 1
19 9 1
353
1 9 19
b) P (two bells but not jackpot) = 20 20 20 + 20 20 20 + 20 20 20 = 203 .
c) For a 3-1-3 machine:
3 1 3
= 2093 ;
P (jackpot) = 20
20 20
3 1 17
3 19 3
1 3
P (two bells but not jackpot) = 20
+ 20
+ 17
= 273
.
20 20
20 20
20 20 20
203
Thus the two machines have the same chance of winning a jackpot. But the 1-9-1 machine
encourages one to play, since it seems to be close to a jackpot more frequently.
Exercise 1.6.6
a)
p1 = 0;
p2 = 6 16 61 = 16 ;
p3 = 6 2
p4 = 6 3
p5 = 6 4
p6 = 6 5
p7 = 6 6

151
;
666
1541
;
6666
15431
;
66666
154321
;
666666
1543211
;
6666666

Since a die has only six numbers on it, there is no need to roll more than seven times.
Therefore: p8 = p9 = = 0.
b) p1 + p2 + + p10 = 1 as one must stop before the eighth roll and the events determining
p1 , p2 , ... are mutually exclusive.
c) Just compute p2 + + p7 and see if it is equal to one.
Review 1.10
a)
P (same type) = P (both A) + P (both B) + P (both AB) + P (both O).
P (both A) = P (A)2 = 0.422 ;
P (both B) = P (B)2 = 0.12 ;
P (both AB) = P (AB)2 = 0.042 ;
P (both O) = P (O)2 = 0.442 .
Thus P (same type) = 0.422 + 0.12 + 0.042 + 0.442 = 0.3816. And so P (different types) =
1 0.3816 = 0.6814.
b)

P (1) =
=
=
P (2) =
=

P (all A or all B or all AB or all O)

P (A)4 + P (B)4 + P (AB)4 + P (O)4
0.424 + 0.14 + 0.044 + 0.444 = 0.0687.
P (pattern XXYY) + P (pattern XXXY)
(0.422 0.12 + 0.422 0.042 + 0.422 0.442 + 0.12 0.042 + 0.12 0.442 + 0.042 0.442 ) 6
+(0.423 (1 0.42) + 0.13 (1 0.1) + 0.043 (1 0.04) + 0.443 (1 0.44)) 4
= 0.5973.
P (4) = 4!(0.42)(0.1)(.04)(0.44) = 0.01774.
P (3) = 1 P (1) P (2) P (4) = 1 0.5973 0.0687 0.01774 = 0.3163.

Review 1.16
a) Student 1 can choose any of the remaining n 1, student 2 can choose any of the eligible
n 2, student 3 can choose any of the eligible n 2 except student 1, student 4 can choose
any of the eligible n 2 except student 1 and 2, and so on. Thus
pr =

nr
n1 n2 n3 n4

.
n1 n2 n2 n2
n2

b) Taking log of pr and making use of the approximation log(1 + z) z for small z:
1
2
log(pr ) = log(1 n2
) + log(1 n2
) + + log(1
(r2)
2
1
n2 + n2 + + n2
1
= n2
(r2)(r1)
.
2

Thus if n = 300 and r = 30,

log(p30 )

28 29
= 1.3624.
298 2

So p30 e1.3624 = 0.256.

Exercise 2.1.4


P (3 sixes in the 8 rolls) = 83 ( 16 )3 ( 56 )5 .
P (3 sixes in the 8 rolls and 2 sixes in the first 5 rolls)
= P (2

sixes in the

first 5 rolls and 1 six in the last 3 rolls)
= 52
( 61
)2 ( 56 )3 31 61 ( 56 )2
= 52 31 ( 16 )3 ( 56 )5
P (2 sixes in the first 5 rolls|3 sixes in the 8 rolls)
and 2 sixes in the first 5 rolls)
= P (3 sixes in theP 8(3rolls
sixes in the 8 rolls)
(5)(3)
= 281
(3)
Exercise 2.1.8
if np + p < 1 then the most likely number of success is zero.

r2
)
n2

if np + p = 1 then the most likely numbers of success is zero and one.

if np + p > 1 then the most likely number of success is bigger than or equal to one.
Hence the most likely number is zero if and only if np + p 1 and so the largest such p is
1
.
n+1
Exercise 2.1.10


n
P (k 1 heads) = k1
(1/2)n


P (k heads) = nk (1/2)n


P (k 1 or k heads) = P (k heads) + P (k 1 heads) = ( nk +
(n)
k
a) P (k 1 heads|k 1 or k heads) = n +k1 n = n+1
.
(k ) (k1)
(n)
.
b) P (k heads|k 1 or k heads) = n +k n = nk+1
n+1
(k ) (k1)

n
k1

)(1/2)n .

Exercise 2.1.12
a)
P (exactly 8 bets)
= P (wins
at the 8th bets, and has won 4 out of the previous sever bets)


= 74 (18/38)4 (20/38)3 (18/38) = 0.1217.
b)
5
P (exactly 5 bets) = (18/38)
= 0.0238;


5
P (exactly 6 bets) = 4
(18/38)4 (20/38)1 (18/38) = 0.0628;
P (exactly 7 bets) = 64 (18/38)4 (20/38)2 (18/38) = 0.099;
So:
P (at least 9 bets)
= 1 P (at most 8 bets)
P
.
= 1 8i=5 P (exactly i bets)
= 1 0.0238 0.0628 0.099 0.1217 = 0.6927.