Additional

Mathematics Project
Work 2016
Probability in Our
Daily Life
Name: Nurul Izzah binti Hurairoh
Class: 5 Dinamik
School: SMK Bukit Jambul
IC No: 990706-07-5684
Index Number:
Subject Teacher: Puan Vikneswary

History of Probability

Probability has a dual aspect: on the one hand the probability or likelihood of
hypotheses given the evidence for them, and on the other hand the behavior
of stochastic processes such as the throwing of dice or coins. The study of the former is
historically older in, for example, the law of evidence, while the mathematical treatment
of dice began with the work of Cardano, Pascal and Fermat between the 16th and 17th
century.
Probability is distinguished from statistics. While statistics deals with data and
inferences from it, (stochastic) probability deals with the stochastic (random) processes
which lie behind data or outcomes.

Probability Theory Applications

Like other theories, the theory of probability is a representation of probabilistic concepts

in formal termsthat is, in terms that can be considered separately from their meaning.
These formal terms are manipulated by the rules of mathematics and logic, and any
results are interpreted or translated back into the problem domain.
There have been at least two successful attempts to formalize probability, namely
the Kolmogorov formulation and the Cox formulation. In Kolmogorov's formulation
(seeprobability space), sets are interpreted as events and probability itself as
a measure on a class of sets. In Cox's theorem, probability is taken as a primitive (that
is, not further analyzed) and the emphasis is on constructing a consistent assignment of
probability values to propositions. In both cases, the laws of probability are the same,
except for technical details.
There are other methods for quantifying uncertainty, such as the DempsterShafer
theory or possibility theory, but those are essentially different and not compatible with
the laws of probability as usually understood.
Probability theory is applied in everyday life in risk assessment and in trade on financial
markets. Governments apply probabilistic methods in environmental regulation, where it
is called pathway analysis. A good example is the effect of the perceived probability of
any widespread Middle East conflict on oil priceswhich have ripple effects in the
economy as a whole. An assessment by a commodity trader that a war is more likely vs.
less likely sends prices up or down, and signals other traders of that opinion.
Accordingly, the probabilities are neither assessed independently nor necessarily very
rationally. The theory of behavioral finance emerged to describe the effect of
such groupthink on pricing, on policy, and on peace and conflict. [21]
In addition to financial assessment, probability can be used to analyze trends in biology
(e.g. disease spread) as well as ecology (e.g. biological Punnett squares). As with
finance, risk assessment can be used as a statistical tool to calculate the likelihood of
undesirable events occurring and can assist with implementing protocols to avoid
encountering such circumstances.

The discovery of rigorous methods to assess and combine probability assessments has
changed society. It is important for most citizens to understand how probability
assessments are made, and how they contribute to decisions.
Another significant application of probability theory in everyday life is reliability. Many
consumer products, such as automobiles and consumer electronics, use reliability
theory in product design to reduce the probability of failure. Failure probability may
influence a manufacturer's decisions on a product's warranty.
The cache language model and other statistical language models that are used
in natural language processing are also examples of applications of probability theory.

Theoretical Probabilities and Empirical

Probabilities
Empirical Probability of an event is an "estimate" that the event will happen based on
how often the event occurs after collecting data or running an experiment (in a large
number of trials). It is based specifically on direct observations or experiences.

Empirical Probability Formula

Example: A survey was conducted to

determine students' favorite breeds of dogs.
Each student chose only one breed.
Do Colli Spani La Boxe PitBu Othe
g
e
el
b
r
ll
r

P(E) = probability that an event, E, will occur.

top = number of ways the specific event
occurs.
bottom = number of ways the experiment
could occur.

10

15

35

12

What is the probability that a student's favorite

dog breed is Lab?
Answer: 35 out of the 85 students chose Lab.
The probability is

Theoretical Probability of an event is the number of ways that the event can occur,
divided by the total number of outcomes. It is finding the probability of events that come
from a sample space of known equally likely outcomes.

Example 1: Find the probability of rolling a

Theoretical Probability Formula

six on a fair die.

Answer: The sample space for rolling is die
is 6 equally likely results: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}.
The probability of rolling a 6 is one out of 6

P(E) = probability that an event, E, will occur.

n(E) = number of equally likely outcomes of E.
n(S) = number of equally likely outcomes of
sample space S.

or

Example 2: Find the probability of tossing a fair die and getting an odd number.
Answer:
event E : tossing an odd number
outcomes in E: {1, 3, 5}
sample space S: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Comparing Empirical and Theoretical Probabilities:

Sum of the rolls of two
dice
Karen and Jason roll two dice 50 times and record their
results in the accompanying chart.
1.) What is their empirical probability of rolling a 7?
2.) What is the theoretical probability of rolling a 7?
3.) How do the empirical and theoretical probabilities
compare?

3, 5, 5, 4, 6, 7, 7, 5, 9,
10,
12, 9, 6, 5, 7, 8, 7, 4, 11,
6,
8, 8, 10, 6, 7, 4, 4, 5, 7,
9,
9, 7, 8, 11, 6, 5, 4, 7, 7,
4,
3, 6, 7, 7, 7, 8, 6, 7, 8, 9

Solution:
1.) Empirical probability (experimental probability or
observed probability) is 13/50 = 26%.
2.) Theoretical probability (based upon what is possible
when working with two dice) = 6/36 = 1/6 = 16.7% (check
out the table at the right of possible sums when rolling two
dice).
3.) Karen and Jason rolled more 7's than would be
expected theoretically.

Law of Large Numbers

In probability theory, the law of large numbers (LLN) is a theorem that describes the
result of performing the same experiment a large number of times. According to the law,
the average of the results obtained from a large number of trials should be close to
the expected value, and will tend to become closer as more trials are performed.
The LLN is important because it "guarantees" stable long-term results for the averages
of some random events. For example, while a casino may lose money in a single spin of
the roulette wheel, its earnings will tend towards a predictable percentage over a large
number of spins. Any winning streak by a player will eventually be overcome by the
parameters of the game. It is important to remember that the LLN only applies (as the
name indicates) when a large number of observations are considered. There is no
principle that a small number of observations will coincide with the expected value or

that a streak of one value will immediately be "balanced" by the others (see
the gambler's fallacy).

Reflection
This project work has me helped to increase my interest and confidence as well as
enhance acquisition of mathematical knowledge and skills through various means which
includes discussion with friends and research through the internet. It also helped me to
realize that mathematics is a tool in solving real life problems. I have also learned to
collaborate, cooperate and share knowledge with my friends in an engaging and healthy
environment. Besides, I have also learned to use ICT appropriately and effectively.
The project work has helped me to realize the importance and beauty of mathematics in
our daily life.

Part 1

a) History of Probability
b) Probability Theory Applications
c) Theoretical Probabilities and Empirical
Probabilities

Part 2

a) Possible Outcomes
b) Outcomes of The Toss

Part 3

a) Possible Outcomes and Their

Corresponding Probabilities
b) Possible Outcomes and Their Events

Part 4

a) Frequency Table
b) Predicting The Value of Mean
c) Total number of Tosses in 100 Times

Part 5

a)
b)
c)
d)

Calculating Using the Formula

Comparing the Results
Making Conjecture and Support for the Conjecture
Law of Large Numbers (LLN)

e) Reflection