Contents

Introduction
Welcome
42s
Who is this course for?
34s
What you should know before watching this course
35s
Using the exercise files
42s
Using the challenges
30s
1. Visually Displaying Your Time-Series Data
What is time-series data?
1m 10s
Plotting a time series
1m 45s
Understanding level in a time series
2m 26s
Understanding trend in a time series
1m 25s
Understanding seasonality in a time series
2m 34s
Understanding noise in a time series
1m 36s
Creating a moving average chart
3m 8s
Challenge: Analyze time-series data for airline miles
27s
Solution: Analyze time-series data for airline miles
2m 25s
2. How Good Are Your Forecasts? Errors, Accuracy, and Bias
Exploring why some forecasts are better than others
4m 31s
Computing the mean absolute deviation (MAD)
3m 54s
Computing the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)
5m 29s
Calculating the sum of squared errors (SSE)
2m 39s
Computing forecast bias
3m 21s
Advanced forecast bias: Determining significance
3m 49s
Challenge: Compute MAD, MAPE, and SSE for an NFL game
36s
Solution: Compute MAD, MAPE, and SSE for an NFL game
4m 41s
3. Using a Trendline for Forecasting
Fitting a linear trend curve
2m 55s
Interpreting the trendline
1m 51s
Interpreting the R-squared value
4m 41s
Computing standard error of the regression and outliers
6m 10s
Exploring autocorrelation
6m 56s

Challenge: Create a trendline to analyze R squared and outliers

37s
Solution: Create a trendline to analyze R squared and outliers
5m 49s
4. Modeling Exponential Growth and Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)
When does a linear trend fail?
5m 19s
Creating an exponential trend curve
5m 31s
Computing compound annual growth rate (CAGR)
2m 45s
Challenge: Fit an exponential growth curve, estimate CAGR, and forecast revenue
41s
Solution: Fit an exponential growth curve, estimate CAGR, and forecast revenue
3m 9s
5. Seasonality and the Ratio-to-Moving-Average Method
What is a seasonal index?
4m 23s
Introducing the ratio-to-moving-average method
1m 47s
Computing the centered moving average
4m 7s
Calculating seasonal indices
4m 22s
Estimating a series trend
2m 4s
Forecasting sales
5m 6s
Forecasting if the series trend is changing
3m 8s
Challenge: Predicting future quarterly sales
37s
Solution: Predicting future quarterly sales
2m 48s
6. Forecasting with Multiple Regressions
What is multiple regression?
6m 2s
Preparing data for multiple regression
9m 7s
Running a multiple linear regression
2m 32s
Finding the multiple-regression equation and testing for significance
9m 15s
How good is the fit of the trendline?
5m 51s
Making forecasts from a multiple-regression equation
4m 17s
Validating a multiple-regression equation using the TREND function
9m 24s
Interpreting regression coefficients
4m 27s
Challenge: Regression analysis of Amazon.com revenue
1m 24s
Solution: Regression analysis of Amazon.com revenue
9m 13s
Conclusion
Next steps
1m 48s