Workbook Index

1 - Moving Average
2 - Simple Exponential Smoothing
3 - Double Exponential Smoothing
4 - Exponential Growth
5 - Linear Growth
6 - Seasonal Indexes
7 - Winters Model (1)
8 - Winters Model (2)
9 - High-Low-Charts for Stock Analysis
10 - Replace Missing Values Sample

WTI
Tahun
1985

1986

1987

1988

Bulan $/Barrel
1
25.65
2
27.33
3
28.41
4
28.81
5
27.64
6
27.14
7
27.31
8
27.75
9
28.26
10
29.54
11
30.72
12
27.19
1
23
2
15.42
3
12.63
4
12.85
5
15.47
6
13.5
7
11.58
8
15.06
9
14.98
10
14.9
11
15.19
12
16.13
1
18.65
2
17.73
3
18.3
4
18.63
5
19.43
6
20.03
7
21.32
8
20.28
9
19.53
10
19.85
11
19.03
12
17.27
1
17.17
2
16.78
3
16.22
4
17.88
5
17.44
6
16.53
7
15.5
8
15.52
9
14.47
10
13.8
11
13.98
12
16.27

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3

17.98
17.83
19.45
21.04
20.03
20.01
19.64
18.55
19.59
20.09
19.82
21.09
22.67
22.1
20.42
18.58
18.24
16.87
18.64
27.17
33.69
36.01
32.3
27.34
24.96
20.52
19.86
20.82
21.24
20.2
21.42
21.69
21.86
23.23
22.47
19.52
18.82
19
18.92
20.24
22.38
21.76
21.35
21.9
21.69
20.34
20.34
19.41
19.08
20.05
20.35

1994

1995

1996

1997

4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6

20.27
19.94
19.07
17.87
18.01
17.51
18.15
16.68
14.51
15.02
14.78
14.65
16.39
17.88
19.07
19.65
18.38
17.46
17.71
18.1
17.16
17.99
18.53
18.55
19.87
19.74
18.42
17.3
18.03
18.23
17.44
17.99
19.04
18.88
19.07
21.36
23.57
21.25
20.45
21.32
21.96
23.99
24.9
23.71
25.39
25.17
22.21
20.99
19.72
20.83
19.17

1998

1999

2000

2001

7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9

19.63
19.93
19.79
21.26
20.17
18.32
16.71
16.06
15.02
15.44
14.86
13.66
14.08
13.36
14.95
14.39
12.94
11.28
12.47
12.01
14.66
17.34
17.75
17.89
20.07
21.26
38.88
22.64
24.86
26.13
27.27
29.35
29.89
25.74
28.78
31.86
29.72
31.22
33.88
33.08
34.4
28.46
29.58
29.61
27.24
27.41
28.64
27.6
26.45
27.47
25.88

2002

2003

2004

2005

10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

22.21
19.67
19.33
19.67
20.74
24.42
26.27

2006

2007

2008

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

3 500
3 000
2 500
2 000
1 500
1 000
500
December

MAvg 5P

November

October

August

July

MAvg 3P

September

Demand

June

May

April

March

February

0
January

Month
Demand MAvg 3P MAvg 5P
January
2 000
#N/A
#N/A
February
1 350
#N/A
#N/A
March
1 950
#N/A
#N/A
April
1 975
1 767
#N/A
May
3 100
1 758
#N/A
June
1 750
2 342
2 075
July
1 550
2 275
2 025
August
1 300
2 133
2 065
September
2 200
1 533
1 935
October
2 770
1 683
1 980
November
2 350
2 090
1 914
December
2 440
2 034

August

MAvg 5P

December

November

October

September

December

November

Damp Factor = 0.2

October

August

July

June

September

Demand
483 505.1Damp Factor = 0.8

May

April

3 500
3 000
2 500
2 000
1 500
1 000
500
0
March

2 000
1 350
1 950
1 975
3 100
1 750
1 550
1 300
2 200
2 770
2 350

Damp
Damp
Factor = 0.2 Factor = 0.8
#N/A
#N/A
2 000
2 000
1 870
1 480
1 886
1 856
1 904
1 951
2 143
2 870
2 064
1 974
1 962
1 635
1 829
1 367
1 903
2 033
2 077
2 623
MSE 2 131 MSE 2 405

February

January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

Demand

January

Month

August

July

June

December

November

October

September

Damp Factor = 0.2

January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May

Demand

97
107
125
140
132
161
154
157
175
166
169
188
180
180
188
194
194
194
194
194
194
194
194
194

Double ES:
A= 0.1 ;B= 0.3

97.0
125.9
127.8
125.6
124.3
126.6
133.9
150.1
171.0
193.6
214.3
225.0
222.8
209.0
183.7
153.1
127.4
116.5
126.7
159.2
208.5
263.4
308.5
328.2
311.6
308.4
305.2
302.0
298.9

Double ES:
A= 0.5 ;B= 0.5

97.0
125.9
120.2
116.9
125.1
136.8
160.5
181.0
189.5
190.7
179.6
163.2
159.2
165.6
179.2
197.2
213.6
220.2
213.7
197.3
179.3
168.6
170.6
184.3
202.9
216.6
230.3
244.0
257.7

Double ES: Auto

A= 0.55 ;B= 0.15

350.0

97.0
125.9
119.3
123.4
134.3
137.3
154.3
161.6
166.5
177.9
179.4
179.9
189.0
190.0
189.0
191.5
195.8
198.1
198.8
198.6
197.7
196.7
195.6
194.8
194.1
193.9
193.7
193.5
193.3

300.0
250.0
200.0
150.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
Month
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December

Month

Demand

Double
A= 0.1 ;B

Demand
Double ES:
A= 0.1 ;B= 0.3
Double ES: Auto
A= 0.55 ;B= 0.15

January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April

Month

Jan-91
Jul-91
Jan-92
Jul-92
Jan-93
Jul-93
Jan-94
Jul-94
Jan-95
Jul-95
Jan-96
Jul-96
Jan-97
Jul-97
Jan-98
Jul-98
Jan-99
Jul-99

Registered .
Com

1 000
1 100
1 200
1 350
1 500
1 850
2 500
4 000
5 200
8 000
14 000
17 000
22 000
26 000
30 000
36 500
43 000

Exponential
Growth

681
892
1 169
1 531
2 006
2 629
3 444
4 513
5 913
7 747
10 150
13 299
17 424
22 830
29 912
39 192
51 351
67 281

80 000
70 000
60 000
50 000
40 000
30 000
20 000
10 000
0
Jan-91

Jan-93
Registered .Com

Jan-95

Jan-97

Exponential Growth

Jan-99

wth

Jan-99

Year

1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000

Linear
Growth

Sales

22
28
27
33
36
37
41

23.0
26.0
29.0
32.0
35.0
38.0
41.0
44.0

50
40
30
20
10
0
1993

1994

1995

1996

Sales

1997

1998

Linear Grow th

1999

2000

Tahun

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Quartal

Harga

1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4

362
385
432
341
382
409
498
387
473
513
582
474
544
582
681
557
628
707
773
592
627
725
854
661

Saz: 4P

0.92
1.01
1.16
0.91
0.92
1.01
1.16
0.91
0.92
1.01
1.16
0.91
0.92
1.01
1.16
0.91
0.92
1.01
1.16
0.91
0.92
1.01
1.16
0.91
0.92
1.01
1.16
0.91

Deseason.
Sales

395.2
381.7
372.3
372.7
417.0
405.5
429.2
423.0
516.3
508.6
501.6
518.1
593.8
577.0
586.9
608.8
685.5
700.9
666.2
647.1
684.4
718.7
736.0
722.5

Double ES:
A= 0.15 ;B= 0

395.2
346.8
369.6
387.5
402.9
422.6
437.6
453.9
466.8
491.8
511.9
527.9
544.0
569.0
587.8
605.2
623.3
650.2
675.3
691.5
702.4
717.3
735.1
752.8
765.8
783.3
800.9
818.5

Forecasting
Reseason.

362.0
349.8
428.8
354.6
369.1
426.2
507.7
415.2
427.6
496.1
593.9
482.9
498.3
574.0
682.0
553.7
571.0
655.9
783.6
632.7
643.5
723.5
852.9
688.7
701.5
790.2
929.3
748.8

MPE

0.0%
9.1%
0.7%
-4.0%
3.4%
-4.2%
-1.9%
-7.3%
9.6%
3.3%
-2.0%
-1.9%
8.4%
1.4%
-0.1%
0.6%
9.1%
7.2%
-1.4%
-6.9%
-2.6%
0.2%
0.1%
-4.2%

1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0

1 2 3 4 1
1994
Ha
MP

1000

15.0%

900
800

10.0%

700
600

5.0%

500
400

0.0%

300
200

-5.0%

100
0

-10.0%
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Harga
Forecasting Reseason.
MPE

Time Series Decomposition

Linear Trend ( Seasonal Length: 4 Periods)
N Per

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24

Initial Values
362.0
385.0
432.0
341.0
382.0
409.0
498.0
387.0
473.0
513.0
582.0
474.0
544.0
582.0
681.0
557.0
628.0
707.0
773.0
592.0
627.0
725.0
854.0
661.0

T (Trend)
343.7
361.5
379.3
397.2
415.0
432.8
450.7
468.5
486.3
504.1
522.0
539.8
557.6
575.4
593.3
611.1
628.9
646.8
664.6
682.4
700.2
718.1
735.9
753.7

S ( 4P )
91.6%
100.9%
116.0%
91.5%
91.6%
100.9%
116.0%
91.5%
91.6%
100.9%
116.0%
91.5%
91.6%
100.9%
116.0%
91.5%
91.6%
100.9%
116.0%
91.5%
91.6%
100.9%
116.0%
91.5%

TxS
314.9
364.7
440.2
363.4
380.2
436.6
522.9
428.6
445.5
508.5
605.6
493.8
510.8
580.5
688.4
559.1
576.2
652.4
771.1
624.3
641.5
724.3
853.9
689.6

CxR
115.0%
105.6%
98.1%
93.8%
100.5%
93.7%
95.2%
90.3%
106.2%
100.9%
96.1%
96.0%
106.5%
100.3%
98.9%
99.6%
109.0%
108.4%
100.2%
94.8%
97.7%
100.1%
100.0%
95.9%

C (Cycle)
#N/A
106.2%
99.2%
97.5%
96.0%
96.5%
93.1%
97.2%
99.1%
101.0%
97.7%
99.5%
100.9%
101.9%
99.6%
102.5%
105.7%
105.9%
101.1%
97.6%
97.6%
99.3%
98.7%
#N/A

R (Random)
#N/A
99.4%
99.0%
96.3%
104.7%
97.1%
102.3%
92.9%
107.1%
99.8%
98.4%
96.4%
105.5%
98.4%
99.3%
97.2%
103.2%
102.4%
99.1%
97.2%
100.2%
100.8%
101.4%
#N/A

Quarter

Sales
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

30.0
42.0
55.0
100.0
35.0
46.0
59.0
120.0
43.0
57.0
71.0
142.0

Forecast Error
160.0
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A 140.0
#N/A
#N/A
120.0
#N/A
#N/A
35.0
0.0% 100.0
45.1
1.9%
58.9
0.2% 80.0
119.4
0.5% 60.0
42.5
1.2%
55.9
2.0% 40.0
70.3
1.0%
20.0
141.1
0.6%
44.9
0.0
60.3
1
76.9
150.5
0.6%

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.0%
2

Sales

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Forecast

Error

2.5%

2.0%

1.5%

1.0%

0.5%

0.0%
12 13 14 15 16
Error

2000

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

1997

12

10

0
8

Demand Forecast MPE

12,400
#N/A
#N/A
23,000
#N/A
#N/A
15,800
#N/A
#N/A
20,500
#N/A
#N/A
25,100
#N/A
#N/A
16,200
#N/A
#N/A
12,000
#N/A
#N/A
10,300
#N/A
#N/A
11,800
#N/A
#N/A
14,000
#N/A
#N/A
10,700
#N/A
#N/A
7,600
#N/A
#N/A
11,800
11,800
0.0%
24,111
24,044
0.3%
16,500
16,324
1.1%
21,000
20,881
0.6%
24,300
24,292
0.0%
15,800
15,870
0.4%
11,500
11,527
0.2%
10,100
10,126
0.3%
11,000
11,026
0.2%
14,300
14,314
0.1%
10,900
10,837
0.6%
7,200
7,200
0.0%
13,600
13,598
0.0%
21,800
21,668
0.6%
14,900
15,014
0.8%
19,400
19,469
0.4%
26,000
25,966
0.1%
16,500
16,399
0.6%
12,400
12,363
0.3%
10,800
10,763
0.3%
12,500
12,460
0.3%
13,800
13,787
0.1%
10,600
10,657
0.5%
8,100
8,097
0.0%
13,281
24,212
16,584
21,398
26,492
17,041
12,614
10,962
12,403
14,792
11,314
8,046
0.2%

1999

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

1998

Month

Year
1997

1998

Demand
1999

Forecast
2000
12

10

12

10

12

10

12

10

12

10

Select High-Low-Close cells and select High-Low-Close for Stock Analysis from Forecast
Stock 1
Open
25.69
26.44
27.20
25.81
24.38
23.25
23.50
22.94
24.06
24.81
23.75
22.13
19.06
19.38
20.44
21.44
19.63
20.50
21.31
19.25
19.75
20.44
19.06
17.94
16.75
15.69
15.56
15.94
14.88
14.13

High
26.88
27.00
27.31
26.50
25.00
24.50
23.81
23.31
24.94
24.94
24.00
22.20
20.13
21.50
21.13
21.88
20.50
20.94
21.94
20.00
19.94
20.50
19.19
18.69
17.00
16.19
16.25
16.13
15.00
14.48

Low
25.13
25.00
25.25
23.69
23.25
22.25
21.94
22.56
23.94
23.56
22.63
20.31
18.38
19.31
19.70
20.25
19.00
19.75
19.03
18.75
18.56
18.45
17.50
17.63
15.38
15.00
15.00
15.00
13.56
13.19

Stock 2
Close
26.44
27.00
26.06
24.00
23.69
24.50
22.19
23.07
24.00
24.00
22.81
20.63
18.81
21.38
20.25
20.31
19.94
20.81
19.06
19.31
19.75
18.69
17.88
18.13
15.75
15.25
15.81
15.06
13.75
13.69

Open
56.31
54.44
57.63
59.38
59.56
58.56
57.50
57.25
58.63
59.88
60.31
57.94
54.69
52.19
52.50
55.31
52.50
54.50
54.56
52.25
50.56
54.94
57.13
56.06
57.38
55.38
55.75
54.81
55.31
53.38

High
56.81
57.50
59.94
61.19
60.07
59.50
58.13
58.63
60.00
61.13
60.59
58.19
55.00
54.75
55.25
56.07
55.13
55.50
56.13
53.25
54.06
57.00
57.50
58.56
57.94
57.19
56.19
56.94
55.56
55.00

Low
53.88
54.31
57.38
58.67
58.19
56.25
56.44
56.56
58.38
59.31
58.44
54.88
51.63
52.00
52.19
53.50
52.48
53.13
52.63
49.75
50.50
54.38
55.56
55.88
55.38
54.56
53.88
54.63
52.75
51.06

Stock Analysis from Forecasting Menu

ock 2
Close
55.19
56.75
59.56
59.38
59.00
59.36
56.69
57.44
59.44
60.69
59.25
56.69
51.94
54.19
54.00
53.69
54.56
54.31
52.69
50.06
54.00
56.56
56.06
58.25
55.56
55.38
54.69
55.81
53.38
51.94

Year
1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

Quarter
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4

Sales
395.2
381.7
372.3
372.7
417.0
405.5
429.2
423.0
516.3
508.6
501.6
518.1
593.8
577.0
586.9
608.8
685.5
700.9
666.2
647.1
684.4
718.7
736.0
722.5

Missing Values Estimation

395.2
381.7
372.3
417.0
405.5
429.2
423.0

Rep

This procedure
1-

2 - Choose Repla
Menu and

3 - Select U
508.6
501.6
593.8
577.0
586.9
608.8
685.5
700.9
647.1
684.4
718.7
736.0
722.5

4 - Try all the othe

Tip: Use Tren

components
random) to hel

Replace Missing Values:

This procedure calculates missing values in Time
Series.
1 - Select range E3 to E19
2 - Choose Replace Missing Values from Forecasting
Menu and try the first available method.
3 - Select Undo Replace Missing Values
4 - Try all the other available methods and analyze the
differences

Tip: Use Trend Statistics to see Time Series

components ( Trend, Cyclical, Seasonal and
random) to help decide what's the best method.